仍在"迷雾"中前行 在美国政府"停摆"期间，作为官方统计机构，劳工统计局的数据统计职能受到影响：9月的就业数据报 告虽在"停摆"前已基本完成，但暂未发布；在紧急召回了数名员工后，同月的CPI数据报告在延迟数天 后得以发布。 如今，随着美国政府"重新开门"，经济数据的统计和发布可能缓慢正常化。但在此之前，市场仍将经历 一段数据"摸黑"期。 ◎记者 陈佳怡 美国政府"停摆"落幕。据新华社报道，当地时间12日晚，美国总统特朗普签署一项联邦政府临时拨款法 案，结束持续43天的美国史上最长政府"停摆"。 不过，美国政府"停摆"给市场留下的"创伤"还需要时间抚平。当地时间11月13日，原定于当日发布的美 国10月CPI数据未能如期发布，数据断档余波未平，市场依然在"迷雾"中前行。在此背景下，美联储12 月议息会议仍充满悬念：若数据持续缺位，美联储可能被迫在信息不完整的情况下进行政策决策。 而美联储年内仅剩一次议息会议，这也意味着，其可能被迫在信息不完整的情况下进行政策决策。民生 证券研报表示，由于美国政府开门后需进行数据搜集或更多依靠估算，这意味着美联储在12月议息会议 前拿到10月数据有一定难度，且即使数据按时公布，也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Huang Yiping and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin at the 2025 Bund Summit highlighted concerns over U.S. tariffs, employment, inflation, and the challenges of artificial intelligence, reflecting differing perspectives on U.S. economic policies and their global implications [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and Economic Policy - Rubin criticized the U.S. tariffs as a misguided policy that undermines economic efficiency and raises prices, with a Goldman Sachs study indicating that approximately 82% of the tariff costs will be borne by Americans [4][5]. - He emphasized that the "America First" policy should align with an open trade system, arguing that globalization has historically benefited the U.S. economy, and current job losses are due to ineffective policy responses to trade liberalization [3][4]. - Rubin described tariffs as a regressive tax that disproportionately affects the poor, making them undesirable from both economic growth and social equity perspectives [5]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Despite acknowledging the challenges posed by the Trump administration's policies, Rubin expressed long-term optimism about the U.S. economy, highlighting the need for reforms to address the unsustainable debt trajectory [6]. - He suggested eliminating the debt ceiling to prevent crises, while cautioning that this does not resolve the underlying issues of fiscal sustainability [6]. - Rubin noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has successfully maintained the independence of the Fed amid political pressures, although he refrained from predicting future monetary policy actions [6]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence and International Cooperation - The discussion on artificial intelligence underscored its potential to impact economic development, national security, and social structures, with Rubin advocating for international cooperation, particularly between the U.S. and China, to address governance challenges [7]. - Huang pointed out the contradictions in U.S. policy, where attempts to limit China's technological advancements coexist with a desire to access the Chinese market, leading to unintended consequences [7]. - Rubin warned that the current U.S. policy direction is heavily influenced by individual decision-makers, increasing uncertainty and unpredictability in both domestic and international contexts [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. as President Trump refuses to negotiate with Democrats over budget issues, particularly regarding healthcare spending and immigration policies [5][6][7]. Government Shutdown Risk - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown on September 30, which would mark the 15th shutdown since 1981. Previous shutdowns have led to federal agencies halting operations, employees being placed on unpaid leave, and disruptions in public services and government contracts [7]. - Trump's refusal to meet with Democratic leaders stems from their demands for an additional $1.5 trillion in spending, primarily for healthcare, which he deems unreasonable [5][6]. Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised about the broader economic impact of a government shutdown. Experts warn that a shutdown could create significant uncertainty for federal employees and local economies, with potential long-term effects on economic growth [10]. - The article highlights the ongoing fiscal challenges in the U.S., with predictions of high inflation persisting into 2026 and a significant fiscal deficit expected due to continued expansionary fiscal policies [7][9]. Federal Workforce Impact - The White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed federal agencies to identify projects that will lose funding and to prepare for permanent layoffs in areas not aligned with Trump's priorities [9]. - Historically, about 60% of federal employees are deemed essential during shutdowns, while the remaining employees are classified as non-essential and do not receive pay until the government reopens [9][10].

Core Points - The potential government shutdown on September 30 could mark the 15th shutdown since 1981, with significant implications for federal operations and employee status [1][4][6] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - President Trump has refused to meet with Democratic leaders until they abandon demands for $1.5 trillion in spending, primarily for healthcare [3][4] - The House passed a temporary funding bill to extend federal funding until November 21, but it failed in the Senate [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised about the U.S. economy, inflation, and fiscal outlook, with predictions of a significant fiscal deficit by 2026 [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is seen as potentially leading to increased risks of policy missteps, including sustained high inflation [5] Group 3: Federal Workforce Impact - The White House budget office has instructed federal agencies to identify projects that will lose discretionary funding and to draft plans for permanent job cuts in areas not aligned with Trump's priorities [6] - Historically, about 60% of federal employees are deemed essential during shutdowns, while the rest are placed on unpaid leave [6][7] - The potential for large-scale layoffs could have detrimental effects on U.S. economic growth, creating uncertainty for federal workers and local economies [6][7]

Group 1: Short-term Fiscal Relief - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its debt-driven economic growth model[2] - Recent tariff agreements with major economies are expected to generate approximately $2.1 trillion in additional tariff revenue over the next decade, alleviating some fiscal concerns[2] - The Act is projected to boost U.S. GDP by 0.15% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with a long-term GDP expansion of 1.2%[8] Group 2: Long-term Concerns - U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025, exceeding 120% of GDP, with the "Big and Beautiful" Act expected to add an additional $3.4 trillion to the debt over the next decade[25] - Interest payments are projected to rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035, creating a significant fiscal burden[28] - The reliance on tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate to 11.4%, may lead to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and demand for non-essential imports, potentially limiting future tariff revenue growth[18] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soft Power - The U.S. government's unilateral policies have diminished its international credibility, affecting its global leadership role[28] - Traditional alliances are strained due to aggressive tariff policies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements, leading allies to reconsider their defense spending and reliance on the U.S.[28] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act and tariff policies are contributing to increased income inequality within the U.S., potentially undermining domestic political stability[19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the temporary alleviation of fiscal pressure faced by the Trump administration through various unconventional policy measures, while highlighting the potential long-term costs to U.S. soft power and global influence [1][4][24]. Group 1: Fiscal Measures and Their Impacts - The "Big and Beautiful" Act was signed into law, extending tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its reliance on debt issuance for short-term economic growth [7][8]. - The Act is expected to stimulate economic growth, with projections indicating a GDP increase of 0.15% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8]. - Tariff revenues are projected to rise significantly, with an estimated additional $2.1 trillion in tariff income over the next decade, although this may be reduced to $1.4 trillion when considering negative economic impacts [12][15]. Group 2: International Relations and Soft Power - Recent agreements with major economies like Europe, Japan, and South Korea are expected to enhance external revenue expectations, although the actual implementation remains uncertain [2][13]. - The U.S. has faced a decline in international credibility due to unilateral policies and inconsistent agreements, which may weaken its negotiating power in global affairs [4][24]. - Traditional alliances are strained, as the "America First" policy has led to skepticism among allies regarding U.S. reliability, prompting them to reconsider their defense strategies [25][24]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - Despite short-term relief, the U.S. faces significant long-term fiscal challenges, with federal debt exceeding $36.2 trillion, representing over 120% of GDP [23]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase U.S. debt by an additional $3.4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the existing debt problem [23]. - Rising interest payments are becoming a substantial burden on the federal budget, with projections indicating that interest expenses will rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035 [23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair**: The Trump administration is considering Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, all of whom are Republicans with economic backgrounds and prior experience at the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. 2. **Divergent Economic Outlooks**: The three candidates have differing views on the U.S. economic outlook. Hassett is the most optimistic, believing Trump's policies will drive growth without rising inflation. Warsh sees the economy as fundamentally strong, while Waller aligns with Federal Reserve officials, indicating a moderate economic slowdown [5]. 3. **Policy Preferences on Interest Rates**: All three candidates generally favor continued interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate growth, while Warsh takes a hawkish stance, suggesting that balance sheet reduction should precede rate cuts [6][7]. 4. **Impact of Fiscal Policy on Bond Yields**: U.S. fiscal issues, particularly the proposed tax cuts, are expected to significantly increase the net deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields [8]. 5. **Historical Concerns on Fiscal Expansion**: Past Federal Reserve Chairs have expressed concerns about fiscal sustainability, emphasizing the need for budget balance and prioritizing anti-inflation goals during non-crisis periods [9]. 6. **Candidates' Views on Fiscal Deficits**: Warsh and Waller believe that excessive fiscal expansion is unsustainable, but they assert that debt repayment is not the Federal Reserve's responsibility. Hassett, due to his current role in the White House, has been less vocal on monetary policy [10]. 7. **Upcoming Changes in Monetary Policy Framework**: The Federal Reserve is expected to revise its monetary policy framework in late summer 2025, potentially reverting to a 2% inflation target, which could influence future rate cuts [11][18]. 8. **Differences in Current Economic Environment**: The current economic environment differs from that of 2020, with higher interest rates and elevated long-term inflation expectations, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [13][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Independence of the Federal Reserve**: Regardless of who becomes the next Chair, maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain a priority for the candidates [10]. 2. **Potential Economic Consequences of Policy Decisions**: Continuing to follow an average inflation target could lead to unnecessary cooling of the job market, potentially increasing unemployment rates [14][17]. 3. **Flexibility in Monetary Policy Operations**: The current higher interest rate environment provides policymakers with greater flexibility in monetary policy operations compared to the previous low-rate environment [16].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Developments - The potential for a US-Canada trade agreement may be reached next week, with Canada prepared to retaliate if negotiations fail [2] - EU trade officials indicate that negotiations with the US are progressing in the right direction [2] - The UK Prime Minister expresses confidence in reducing US tariffs in a short timeframe [2] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment report for May shows an increase of 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [3] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for May drops to 49.9, indicating contraction for the first time in nearly a year, down from 51.6 [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 95.6%, with a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Galaxy Futures suggests that the cooling US economy is boosting precious metals, which are expected to maintain a strong position in the short term [4] - The weak ADP data and ISM services PMI have diminished market confidence in the US economic outlook, leading to renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - Concerns over the US fiscal situation, highlighted by Trump's comments on the debt ceiling and the CBO's deficit projections, are providing support for precious metals [4]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs COO Waldron highlighted the "significant resilience" of the U.S. economy and consumers [1] - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus towards U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is demonstrating strong performance despite challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to withstand economic pressures [1] - The bond market's attention to fiscal matters indicates a shift in investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus to U.S. fiscal issues, with long-term interest rates posing the greatest risk rather than tariffs [1] Group 1 - The primary concern in the current market environment is the long-term interest rates, which are seen as a significant risk factor [1] - The shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal issues indicates a broader concern regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [1]