Core Viewpoint - Gold experienced significant volatility last week, initially surging over $200 to reach 4245 before a sharp decline, dropping below 4100 and potentially testing the 4000 level again [1][4]. Market Performance - Last week saw a dramatic drop in gold prices, with a long wick indicating a bottoming out before rebounding back to 4100 for adjustment [3]. - Today's trading opened high but retreated, encountering support at 4031, with potential for a rebound if this level holds [3]. - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with further declines possible if 4100 is breached, while resistance is seen at 4142 [4]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has had a widespread impact, leading to significant layoffs and a sharp decrease in ADP employment data, which has increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, benefiting gold prices [5]. - The absence of CPI data and the government shutdown in October has created a data vacuum, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates, which has contributed to gold's volatility [6]. Upcoming Events - This week, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is crucial, as internal divisions grow regarding the dual pressures of employment and inflation, with December's interest rate decisions under scrutiny [7]. - The upcoming PMI data will serve as an important indicator of the U.S. economy's health, influencing stock and bond markets, and subsequently impacting gold prices [7]. Investment Strategy - For gold investments, understanding market direction and timing is essential for achieving stable profits, which requires extensive practical experience [7]. - Effective risk management and position sizing are fundamental for maximizing profit opportunities while minimizing risk [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been intense, characterized by rapid changes in price and sentiment, leading to challenges for investors, particularly newcomers [1] Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged by 2.8% on Monday, closing at $4,111.39 per ounce, marking the highest closing level in over two weeks [3] - Weak U.S. economic data has shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a 64% probability of a rate cut in December and 77% by January [3] Price Forecast - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach the range of $4,200 to $4,300 per ounce by the end of the year, with a reasonable target of $5,000 in the first quarter of next year [4] Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the key resistance level of $4,080, indicating a potential return to a bullish trend, but caution is advised due to possible cooling of market sentiment after the government shutdown ends [5][7] - Key price levels to watch include the resistance zone of $4,150 to $4,180 and support around $4,080 [7] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the current volatile market, focusing on risk management and avoiding emotional trading decisions [8] - Specific trading strategies include shorting lightly if prices test the $4,140 to $4,150 range, and considering long positions if prices pull back to around $4,080 [9]

Report Overview Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core View - The risk sentiment towards US equity assets in the market has increased, which may boost the investment demand for gold. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly strong oscillatory pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram - 970 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also rising, slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The silver price is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11600 yuan/kilogram - 12100 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The US officially announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China announced a one - year suspension of the special port dues for US ships and a one - year suspension of counter - measures against five US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time has not been arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 10, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 918.74 yuan/gram and closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, a change of 1.60% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 940.18 yuan/gram and closed at 944.76 yuan/gram, a 0.94% increase from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11719.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.05% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1015910 lots, and the open interest was 243217 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11810 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11868 yuan/kilogram, a 1.27% increase from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.11%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year bonds was 0.56%, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 10, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 697 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 562 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 481732 lots, a 17.91% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, in the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2075 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4410 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1873576 lots, a 19.78% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1042.06 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 10, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 3.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 883.09 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 79.87, a - 0.12% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 82.27, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51204 kilograms, a - 8.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 712714 kilograms, a 34.61% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28320 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram - 970 yuan/gram. Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11600 yuan/kilogram - 12100 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Options: Postpone [8][9]

黄金上周又是神奇逆转，跳水100美金后，迎来V型反转，重返4000关口，修复所有跌幅后。今天直接 起飞，大涨80美金，捅破4050的震荡阻力，看涨延续挑战4100的关口。 今天的走势 上周延续震荡不变，4000关口争夺不断。 今天高开，直接强阳突破。 上方涨穿4070，继续看涨延续。 先看4100的位置，遇阻无效，那么上看4140的阻力。 不过，面临4100，再次遇阻。 下方调整，可先看4050的位置。 回踩此位置，二次反弹，上看挑战4100的位置。 上周主要因素： 一方面，美联储内部分歧加剧，鹰声突发大振，10月降息落地，推高通胀，迎来鹰派反攻浪潮，直接来 了个大反转，反对12月降息。叠加小非农意外走强，大超预期，就业数据表现，直接给12月降息阻力， 美元走强，黄金跳水大跌。 另外一方面，美政府停摆追平记录后，又不断延长停摆时长，两党内斗加剧，矛盾激化，重挫美股，直 接抹掉了10%的幅度，崩盘的风险。美股汇双杀，利好黄金上演大逆袭。 本周消息面 重磅数据，美10月CPI来了，非农缺席后，迎来本月的第一个重磅指标。直接关系到美联储12月的决 策，是否降息的关键数据，如能终结停摆，或引发新一轮的市场动荡。当然了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - **Related Industries**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].

黄金昨天大跌，重回4000关口调整后。接连闯关4000无果，上演高位跳水，突然坠落80美金，到今天止 跌调整，重返3970上，大起大落，多空争夺。 今天的走势 昨天跳水后，今天二度试探3828的位置。 再次止跌调整，重返3970上方。 还在反弹，上看3978的位置。 继续延续回调，新低看向3915的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到8月收官，终结4个月震荡格局。而且到10月收官，上演单边抛物线冲高后，大幅 回落，进入高位洗盘。而且到本月，延续调整，上方可调整空间，看向4100的关口。下方再次大幅回 调，看向3830的区域。 操作方面，黄金冲高回落，大幅回调走势下的调整，继续关注3978和4005做空调整的过程。此外，黄金 短期内看震荡横盘，关注3948和3915做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美联储内部吵翻天，这次鹰派声浪大起，10月降息后，覆盖了鸽派的分歧。一场关于12月是否 降息的争夺战打响，鲍威尔也表态，12月并非板上钉钉，影响力不断蔓延，美元持续走强，黄金跳水大 跌。 另外一方面，美政府停摆满月，美又释放信号，短期内或结束停摆，继续给紧张的局势降温。不过的意 外的是美拨款法案，又被否了，继续停摆刷停摆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with a surge of $360 followed by a sharp decline of $200, ultimately stabilizing above $4200, indicating a highly dynamic trading environment [1][4][11]. Weekly Performance - Last week, gold prices soared, demonstrating a parabolic rise, and after a high jump, it managed to rebound above $4200 [1][4]. - Today's trading opened high with a rebound of $50, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - The market is projected to test the resistance level at $4280, with potential for further gains towards $4380 [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Following a high-level drop, there is a possibility of further adjustments, with support levels being monitored at $4200 and $4127 [9][11]. - The gold market has seen a remarkable increase of over $900 in the last two months, with an annual increase nearing $1800, indicating a strong bullish trend despite recent corrections [11]. Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, including the imposition of tariffs, have significantly impacted market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [13]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, affecting economic data releases and potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices [14]. - Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [14]. Investment Strategy - Emphasis is placed on the importance of timing in entering and exiting positions in the gold market, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit opportunities [14]. - The expertise of seasoned investment teams is highlighted as a critical factor for achieving high accuracy in trading decisions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures showed a rebound after a decline. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to break through upwards following the Malaysian palm oil trend and have room to strengthen further [1]. - Soybean oil: Sino - US trade relations may improve, but domestic soybean oil has a pattern of narrow - range shock adjustment due to factors such as sufficient supply and potential release of reserve soybeans [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently in the concentrated listing period, the futures market will maintain a weak pattern under the pressure of short - term supply [2]. Sugar - The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. The sugar market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [6][7]. Meal and Soybeans - The supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient. The spot price is expected to remain weak this year, but the downward space is limited. There may be an opportunity for the 1 - 5 positive spread [9]. Cotton - The short - term cotton price will fluctuate within a range, with cost support at low levels and pressure from hedging at higher levels [12]. Live Pigs - In the short - term, the pig price has stabilized and rebounded, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply pressure will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year [15]. Eggs - The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, but it still faces overall pressure due to sufficient supply [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On October 17, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.47% to 8,590 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Trends**: Malaysian palm oil futures showed a rebound, while domestic soybean oil was in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: The price of corn 2601 decreased by 0.89% to 2,117 yuan/ton; the price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 0.08% to 2,374 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Conditions**: New - season corn is in the concentrated listing period, with weak prices due to supply pressure. Demand is cautious currently, but there may be an increase in the future [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.07% to 5,412 yuan/ton; the ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.02% to 15.53 cents/pound [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The supply in Brazil is increasing, and the raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - weak sales situation [6][7]. Meal and Soybeans - **Price Changes**: The price of soybean meal M2601 decreased by 1.34% to 2,868 yuan/ton; the price of Canadian canola meal RM2601 decreased by 2.45% to 2,306 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Conditions**: The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak [9]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.11% to 13,390 yuan/ton; the price of ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.80% to 64.29 cents/pound [12]. - **Market Conditions**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton is firm. The short - term cotton price will fluctuate within a range [12]. Live Pigs - **Price Changes**: The price of live pig 2511 decreased by 1.03% to 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of live pig 2601 decreased by 1.97% to 11,670 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Conditions**: Short - term price rebound, but long - term supply pressure persists, and the price is not optimistic [15]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 0.46% to 2,805 yuan/500KG; the price of the egg 01 - contract increased by 0.13% to 3,179 yuan/500KG [18]. - **Market Conditions**: Sufficient egg supply, but improved demand may drive the price up slightly, with overall pressure [18].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qizheng Tibetan Medicine, is experiencing stable stock performance despite external economic uncertainties, with minimal impact on production costs and profits due to its limited exposure to U.S. imports [1]. Company Performance - As of October 15, 2025, Qizheng Tibetan Medicine's stock closed at 26.73 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase with a turnover rate of 0.8% and a trading volume of 45,900 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 1.22 billion yuan [1]. - The company reported that foreign business revenue accounted for only 0.05% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating that changes in U.S. policies will have a negligible effect on overall income [1]. Market Sentiment - On October 15, 2025, the net inflow of main funds into the stock was 7.38 million yuan, while speculative funds also saw a net inflow of 7.24 million yuan, suggesting a positive market sentiment towards the stock [1]. - Retail investors, however, showed a net outflow of 14.63 million yuan, indicating a divergence in investment behavior among different investor classes [1].