地缘政治风险持续，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。 中国实物金需求明显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持十个月。 【机构观点】 目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和避险情绪可能是短期扰动因 素，美联储需兼顾就业和通胀双重指标，更加注重稳就业，今年9月开启降息，点阵图显示年内还有两 次降息；同时地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力 市场意外疲软，非农就业人口大幅低于市场预期且大幅下降，失业率上升至4.3%。8月PCE数据显示通 胀数据持稳，核心PCE同比上涨2.9%，PCE同比上涨2.7%，均符合市场预期；8月CPI同比涨2.9%，与预 期一致，较上月的2.7%回升，是1月份以来最大涨幅。短期来看，市场对美联储10月降息预期已达90% 左右，关注本周的非农数据；美国政府停摆担忧和地缘政治风险加剧刺激避险情绪支撑金价，预计黄金 偏强震荡。 【黄金期货行情表现】 10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前最高 921.40元/克，最低898.06元 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属再度强势上破，伦敦金站上 3800 关口，将 历史新高刷至 3819.81 美元，当前交投于 3808 附近; 伦敦银将 2011 年以来新高 刷至 47.174 美元，当前交投于 46.88 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金将新高刷至 867 元，最终收涨 1.35%，报 866.52 元/克; 沪银主力合约将上市以来新高刷至 11008 元，最终收涨 3.92%，报 10939 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走低，当前交投于 98 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样回落，当前交投于 4.145%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑 ...

换资前言： 对于近期的行情金晟富不知道你把握的如何？现在的你是不是还在迷茫中，无论行情暴涨，暴跌，单边 还是震荡，你是不是总是没把握住？就是所谓的一买就跌，一跌就割，一割就涨，一涨就追，一追又 套，一套再割。这就像一个死套，资金不断缩水，如此循环。在此，金晟富不便于在文章中大篇幅的说 怎么教你，对于你的亏损状态，我会尽我所能给你们铲除盈利之路的障碍，在你还有资本的时候我可以 让你变得更好。留得青山在不怕没柴烧，那么为什么非要堵一口不确定的气拿自己的资金开玩笑？其实 可怕的不是行情，而是迷失了自己，找不到方向感，如果你做单不顺或投资经常资金缩水，那么可以跟 我好好聊聊。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 策略二：黄金回调3750-3752附近分批做多（买涨）十分之二仓位，止损8个点，目标3765-3775附近， 破位看3785一线；（结合实时形态待反转信号入场；） 风险提示：所有操作需严格控制仓位设置止损，谨防突发事件引发的极端行情。 黄金技术面分析：上周的黄金周一周二延续强势上涨，在周二创出3791的新高，周三下跌收阴调整，周 四周五震荡上涨收小阳，周线收出一根阳线，形成6连阳上涨。 ...

【宏观消息】 美联储洛根表示现在是时候为新的基准利率做好准备了，美联储应放弃联邦基金利率 改用国债抵押隔 夜利率；美联储戴利表示我认为随着时间推移，可能还需要进一步降息；美联储理事鲍曼表示现在应转 向关注就业，而非通胀；美联储施密德表示美联储资产负债表的关键问题是准备金的适当水平，储备金 可能降至约2.6万亿美元，资产负债表缩减越多越好；美联储古尔斯比表示对基于就业数据放缓而提前 实施过多降息感到有些不安；美联储理事米兰表示我认为利率过于具有限制性，幅度为150-200个基 点，应以50个基点的步伐逐步减少限制性。本周美联储密集发言显示内部分歧依旧存在，过度的降息交 易存在回调风险。 美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 2.5%，预期1.7%，前值1.6%；美国第二季度实际GDP年化季 率终值 3.8%，预期3.30%，前值3.30%；主要上修项为净出口贡献。本周经济数据对市场的影响加大， 在2季度经济数据显示向好后，市场降低了美联储降息的必要性，市场对美联储10月维持利率不变的预 期概率由10%上升至15%；美国9月标普制造业PMI录得50.2，仍处枯荣线之上；而相较而言欧元区9月 的制造业PMI出现了滑 ...

Key Takeaways PCE Numbers for August Were Mostly In-Line with EstimatesThough Inflation Is Still Present in PCE Data, It's Not Out of ControlPre-Market Traders Love This Report, but Don't Expect Big Rate Cuts from the FedFriday, September 26, 2025Ahead of today’s open, pre-market futures are climbing higher on mostly expected results from August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) this morning. The Dow is currently up +225 points, the S&P 500 +28 and the Nasdaq +105 points. Even the small-cap Russell 20 ...

周五（9月26日）亚欧交易时段，国际现货黄金市场表现平淡，价格围绕3742美元/盎司关口展开震荡， 未能延续前一交易日的温和上涨态势。市场分析显示，最新公布的美国宏观经济数据表现强劲，加剧了 投资者对美联储未来利率政策路径的分歧，推动美元指数稳居于三周高位附近，从而对不产生利息的黄 金资产形成一定压力。 多空因素交织，金价陷入胶着 尽管面临美元走强的外部压力，但金价的下行空间似乎受到多重因素的制约。市场参与者在美国关键通 胀数据——个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）公布前，普遍持谨慎态度，不愿进行大规模的方向性押注。 同时，市场对美联储在未来数月内可能继续实施降息的预期，也一定程度上抑制了美元多头的热情，为 金价提供了支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，金价目前正处于重要关口。下行方面，3720-3715美元区间构成近期的关键支撑 区域，若有效跌破该水平，可能引发技术性卖盘，推动金价进一步下探3650美元乃至3610-3600美元区 域。 上行方面，金价在3753-3754美元附近面临一道短期趋势线阻力，突破该阻力位后，有望重新挑战本周 初创下的历史高点3790美元附近。若能有效站稳3800美元整数关口上方，将强化市场对 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年09月26日15时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.27%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易协议分批达成，但美联储独 立性担忧再起；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，俄乌、中东等地缘异动仍 存。特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，库克诉特朗普越权罢免，引发外界担忧美联储的独立性。③货币属性方面，美联储降息25 个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在未来的利率决策中需要继续平衡高通胀和就业市场趋弱这两种 相互竞争的风险。美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，美国第二季经济增速上修至近两年最快，削弱美联储进一步降息理据。目前 市场预期美联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品 属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | | | 净多或 | | | | 博客 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| Millio | > 國技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。本周鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据数据和经济前景灵 活调整。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚美国周度初请失业金人数和周 五的PCE通胀数据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。 贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国财长贝森特:美联储利率已过高太久了;我们将进入宽松周期。鲍威尔本应发出100至150个基点降息 的信号。FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧虑，下 次会议不愿支持降息；旧金山联储主席戴利则认为经济增长、劳动力等放缓，而 ...

数据显示，9月24日上海黄金现货价格报价853.15元/克，相较于期货主力价格（860.00元/克）贴水6.85 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 9月24日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 860.00 | 1.03% | 285621 | 274765 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 美国总统特朗普：如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议，美国已准备好加征关税；乌克兰在欧盟支持下有能力夺回 所有失地；北约国家应在俄罗斯飞机进入北约空域时将其击落；与普京的关系"不幸地没有任何意义"。 【机构观点】 银行期货： 昨日鲍威尔的发言表明其认为利率仍偏紧缩，被市场解读为或为进一步降息打开空间，市场对于未来美 国流动性宽松的预期仍较高，但美国的类滞胀风险犹存，且地缘冲突仍时有抬头，贵金属整体维持强 势。另外需要注意，最新的PMI数据指向美国经济具有一定韧性，有助于暂时缓解市场对美国经济减速 的担忧情绪，贵金属在历史高位附近出现一定的获利了结迹象。整体来看，由于美国处于降息通道，海 外 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]