AI泡沫破裂的担忧、经济放缓的预期以及获利回吐的压力正在市场上交织碰撞，导致本周美股出现数月来最剧烈的盘中波动。"谁也没想到会这 样"，投资者对未来可能出现的更大波动感到担忧。 本周标普500指数下跌近2%，尽管周五有所反弹，但11月以来累计跌幅仍达3.5%。科技股权重较大的纳斯达克综合指数11月已下滑超过6%，并创 下了自4月以来的最大三周跌幅。 （美股基准股指本周走势） 动量股本周遭受重挫，Robinhood本月市值蒸发约四分之一，Coinbase股价暴跌30%，Palantir下跌约23%。高盛的一篮子高贝塔动量股较昨日高点 暴跌近15%。这是自2022年11月以来动量表现最差的一周。 （高盛高贝塔组合较昨日高点暴跌14.7%） 对人工智能公司押下重注的投资者焦虑最为严重。追踪AI股票的Global X人工智能与科技ETF本月下跌约10%，而追踪科技七巨头的ETF自10月底 以来下跌约6.6%。 英伟达业绩引发的意外抛售 本周三美股收盘后，几乎所有华尔街人士都预期英伟达的强劲财报将推动股市上涨。事态的确如此开始，但随后急转直下。 华尔街见闻提及，无论从哪个角度来看，英伟达的财报和评论都是积极的。但正如高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term and a fluctuating trend in the medium - term. It is likely to maintain a weakening trend on Friday, November 8, 2025 [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weakening operation. The core logic is that weak supply - demand conditions dominate, leading to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade tariffs, the macro - driving force has weakened, and there has been profit - taking in the market. Currently, domestic methanol production and imports are high, port inventories are high, downstream demand is gradually improving but olefin profit is poor, and weak demand persists. On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.28% at 2122 yuan/ton but lacked the momentum to continue rising [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak. The weak supply - demand situation dominates the market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.57% to 2108 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]. Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5]. - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a low opening but rebounded by midday, indicating resilience despite a decrease in trading volume, suggesting caution among investors [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened lower, but by midday, the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices turned positive, with the Shenzhen Component only down 0.15% [1]. - Over 3,000 stocks in the market saw gains, indicating a broad recovery despite initial fears [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and electric grid equipment sectors performed exceptionally well, with stocks like Haima Automobile achieving four consecutive daily limits and several others hitting daily limits as well [3]. - The semiconductor and quantum technology sectors faced notable declines, attributed to profit-taking rather than fundamental issues [3][4]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - For investors holding stocks in the Hainan and electric grid sectors, it is advised to avoid overextending positions and to monitor trading volume before making further investments [3][5]. - Investors with semiconductor and quantum technology stocks should hold if the companies' fundamentals remain strong, as short-term adjustments are normal [4]. - New investors are encouraged to avoid chasing stocks that have already surged significantly and instead look for reasonably valued stocks in related sectors or those with solid earnings support [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term fluctuations, medium - term weak fluctuations, and weak fluctuations throughout the day [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was profit - taking in the market [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China remains high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the current situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.33% to 2,114 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a decline on November 4, with both major indices closing lower due to profit-taking by investors concerned about a potential short-term overheating of the market [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 1.74%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index fell by 0.65% [1] - The Nikkei index decreased by 914.14 points, ending at 51497.20 points; the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 21.69 points, closing at 3310.14 points [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with the marine transportation, information and communication, and service sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - Conversely, the airline transportation, glass and ceramic products, and petroleum and coal products sectors were among the top gainers [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5]. - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the driving force of macro factors has weakened. The domestic methanol market has high production and import pressure, high port inventories, and poor olefin profits, resulting in a weak demand situation that needs improvement. The methanol 2601 contract is likely to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On Monday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 2.09% to 2,110 yuan/ton [5]. Market Conditions - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although the downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit on the futures market is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5]. Macro Factors - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, the two sides made positive progress in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The weak supply - demand situation is the main factor leading to this trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and weakly downward [1] - **Intraday**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and weakly downward [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking in the market [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] 3.3 Market Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping significantly by 2.09% to 2156 yuan/ton [5]

Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 29, with corn and wheat prices increasing while soybean prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.34 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.46% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 3.25 cents or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.95 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.07% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The agricultural market has already priced in positive developments regarding trade situations, leading to a decline in soybean prices due to profit-taking [1] - Analysts suggest that unless severe drought occurs in South America, there is limited upside potential for crop prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Global gold prices rebounded over 1% on October 24 due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold prices rose by 1% to $4,132.76 per ounce, while December gold futures increased by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1] - Earlier in the week, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381.21 per ounce before experiencing the largest single-day drop in five years, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [1][3] Group 2: Market Influences - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include global tensions, increased economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant net purchases of gold by central banks [3] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as an opportunity for new buying, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with expectations that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, which will be a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with potential for another cut in December [5] Group 4: Future Projections - JPMorgan forecasts that due to strong investment demand and high levels of net gold purchases by central banks (estimated at 566 tons per quarter next year), the average gold price could reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [5] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with spot silver rising by 1.1% to $49.07 per ounce, platinum up by 0.5% to $1,629.44 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.4% to $1,453.90 per ounce [5]