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Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Group 1 - Global financial markets are facing a complex test due to intertwined monetary policy decisions and geopolitical risks, particularly highlighted by the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision is the focal point, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged, but the communication following the meeting will be closely analyzed for insights on future rate paths [2][3] - The Bank of Japan is in a delicate transition phase after ending negative interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining current rates due to cautious statements from its governor amid external uncertainties [4][6] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, is causing heightened risk aversion in the markets, evidenced by declines in U.S. stocks and a surge in the VIX index [7] - There are concerns about the potential spillover of the conflict, especially regarding the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to catastrophic impacts on the global economy if oil prices were to spike to $120-130 per barrel [8][9] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves to stabilize the market, reflecting the severity of the situation, while OPEC's criticisms highlight the differing perspectives between oil-producing and consuming nations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the market, highlighting a lack of confidence in macroeconomic recovery and the ongoing challenges posed by external shocks, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic changes are minimal, with no systemic confidence being rebuilt. The average tariff between the U.S. and China is expected to remain high, around 30%-40% [4]. - U.S. debt pressure and fiscal constraints are weakening the strength of the U.S. economy, leading to a decline in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [5]. - The market is experiencing a price stagnation where prices remain the same but purchasing power is diminishing, creating a poor trading experience [3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Dynamics - Commodity prices are low enough that the market does not anticipate immediate negative shocks comparable to the lows seen in early April [5]. - Certain commodities, such as glass and rubber, have fallen below their early April lows, indicating a return to previous pricing levels [5]. - Oil and coal are seen as leading indicators for commodity prices, with geopolitical issues potentially driving oil prices higher despite recent market corrections [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Recent attacks on Russian airports by Ukraine indicate a shift in military dynamics, suggesting that Ukraine may have opportunities to challenge Russian dominance [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are likely to create long-term threats to energy exports, particularly oil [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current U.S. retail inventory levels are increasing, suggesting that demand may be overstretched, with inventory growth at 5% while sales growth is only at 4% [6]. - The supply growth rate is currently double that of demand growth, indicating a trend towards oversupply, which will pressure PPI recovery [8]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The article raises questions about the potential for market recovery in a long-term weak economic environment, emphasizing the need for systematic thinking regarding investment strategies [9]. - There are structural contradictions in trading, with some sectors appearing overvalued while others, like the photovoltaic and black industrial chains, may offer valuation recovery opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market has experienced a significant rebound, with the S&P index rising approximately 20% from April lows, and all equity markets performing well [2][3] - Oil and gas prices have decreased materially, providing a potential tailwind for the economy, assuming it does not signal a recession [2][3] - There has been a notable increase in M&A activity, with numerous deals ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion announced in the past six weeks despite tariff concerns [2][3] - Retail investors have shown significant engagement, with net buying in the U.S. reaching an annualized rate of approximately $200 billion to $300 billion [17] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards cyclical stocks over defensive ones, with a notable demand for sectors like technology, healthcare, energy, and industrials [12][24] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of tariffs, noting a de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff increases, which are now at 30% and 15% respectively, significantly lower than previous expectations [13][14] - Recession probabilities have decreased to around 35%, and GDP growth estimates for the U.S. and China have been revised upwards [13][14] - The market is currently driven by hard data such as high employment and stable GDP, rather than uncertainties surrounding tariffs [9][10] Retail Investor Influence - Retail investors have increasingly influenced market dynamics, particularly through the "buy the dip" strategy, which has been prominent during market downturns [17] - The report notes the growing relevance of retail investors, who now account for approximately 30% of daily trading volumes and 53% of equity ownership in the U.S. [17] M&A Activity - The report indicates a steady pace of mid-cap M&A activity, driven by the need for growth in a low GDP growth environment [21][24] - There is an emphasis on the challenges faced by small and mid-cap companies in a concentrated market, highlighting the importance of scale [21][24] IPO Market - The report mentions a resurgence in IPO activity, with strong investor demand and oversubscriptions for recent listings such as eToro and Aspen [19][20] - There is a backlog of companies waiting for favorable market conditions to go public, indicating a potential increase in future IPOs [19][20] Economic Indicators - The report notes a significant gap between hard data (employment and GDP) and soft data (ISM, PMI, consumer confidence), which is at one of the widest levels since the 1970s [9][10] - Concerns remain regarding inflation and the potential impact of tariff delays on the economy [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a significant increase in both international and domestic gold prices. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On May 20, international gold prices rebounded, with spot gold closing up nearly 2% and COMEX gold also rising close to 2% [1] - As of May 21, spot gold further increased, surpassing $3,300 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose nearly 1% to $3,339.1 per ounce [1] - Shanghai gold saw a nearly 3% increase, with the main contract reaching a high of 779 yuan per gram [4] Group 2: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold brands also experienced price increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,007 yuan per gram, up 25 yuan from the previous day [4] - Lao Miao gold jewelry was priced at 1,004 yuan per gram, an increase of 27 yuan, while other brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook saw similar price hikes [4] Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Demand - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, ended a streak of reductions, with a slight increase in holdings of 2.87 tons, bringing the total to 921.6 tons [4] - Analysts indicate that the recent volatility in gold prices reflects a rapid shift in global market risk sentiment, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties [4] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been increasing its gold reserves, with April figures showing a rise to 7,377 million ounces, marking six consecutive months of increases [5][6] - The PBOC's gold accumulation is seen as a response to changing global political and economic conditions, with a focus on optimizing international reserve structures and enhancing the credibility of the yuan [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - UBS forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential highs of $3,800 in a bullish scenario [7] - Analysts suggest that the key drivers for gold prices in the long term will be the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve supporting gold prices [7] - Future gold price movements may depend on the U.S. economic situation, with potential upward trends if the Fed lowers interest rates or if physical gold demand surges [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, breaking the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a negative GDP growth in the US, which increased safe-haven demand [1] - Since May 19, spot gold has been on the rise, following a significant correction after reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, with a notable drop of 2.23% on May 14 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a strong performance in gold and jewelry consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in April for gold and jewelry, and a 38.6% increase in the average closing price of AU9999 gold [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures believes that the current adjustment in gold prices is a short-term trend, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact, influenced by a combination of rising inflation and economic downturn in the US [2] - According to Founder Securities, while gold prices are currently high, the easing of trade tensions may lead to profit-taking by investors and a slowdown in central bank purchases, potentially causing a short-term price correction [2] - Citigroup has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, indicating a 10% decrease, and predicts that gold prices will oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300 in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surged past the key level of $3,300 for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerns over potential Israeli actions against Iranian nuclear facilities, which have heightened market risk aversion and supported gold prices [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) opened higher with active trading, serving as an efficient tool for gold asset allocation without physical delivery, allowing T+0 flexible trading [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen significant inflows, with shares increasing by 28.8 million, 4.5 million, and 131.4 million over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The global gold market has experienced a dramatic increase in trading activity, with the World Gold Council reporting a 48% month-on-month rise in average daily trading volume to $441 billion in April [1] - The structural demand for gold remains stable, with central bank demand being a key factor supporting gold prices, as highlighted in the World Gold Council's Q1 2025 report [1] - According to a senior researcher at CITIC Futures, the short-term adjustments in gold prices are temporary, with a long-term bullish trend expected, influenced by the broader economic context of rising inflation and potential recession risks in the U.S. [2]

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," introducing a private equity "reverse linkage" arrangement for the first time [1] International News - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, stating that the U.S. will not fall into recession [3] - New Jersey Transit, the third-largest commuter rail operator in the U.S., has gone on strike for the first time in 40 years, affecting the travel of hundreds of thousands [3] - U.S. one-year inflation expectations for May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly dipped to the second-lowest historical level but ended a four-month streak of significant declines [3] - Trump announced that the U.S. has $10 trillion in investments, considering increasing it to approximately $13 trillion, and has proposed a nuclear agreement to Iran [3] - Trump indicated that new tariffs will be imposed on many countries within the next two to three weeks; Japan may not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. by the end of July, and the Korea-U.S. trade agreement may be finalized after the July 8 deadline [3] - In the Russia-Ukraine talks, discussions lasted only two hours, with Russia demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal as a condition for ceasefire; Ukraine found the demands unacceptable, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war [3] Company News - The Hang Seng Index will include Midea Group and ZTO Express; the Hang Seng Tech Index will add BYD Company while removing Reading Group [4] - The Honghu Fund Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion yuan, is set to invest in the market soon [4] - CATL announced the H-share offering price at HKD 263.00 per share [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor *ST Jinguang and other stocks with delisting risk warnings this week [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will focus on stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, such as *ST Yushun and ST Jiajia, this week [4]

Market Performance - On May 14, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.72%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Dow Jones down 0.21% [1][5] - Large tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia and Tesla both gaining over 4% [1][7] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.17%, outperforming the broader market [11] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with Tencent Music up over 15% and Li Auto up nearly 3% [1][11] - Alibaba, Baidu, and TAL Education also rose close to 2% [1][11] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures fell 1.91% to $3185.7 per ounce, while silver futures dropped 2.23% to $32.37 per ounce [4] - International crude oil futures also declined, with WTI June futures down 0.82% to $63.15 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson warned that new tariff policies could increase inflation uncertainty [4][16] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized the importance of not reacting to daily market fluctuations, indicating a stable economic outlook [17] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's Shanghai factory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, marking a one-year high [11] - Nvidia and AMD are expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia, with potential revenues estimated between $3 billion to $5 billion annually [11] - Tencent reported Q1 2025 revenue of 180.02 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in its advertising and gaming segments [14][15]