弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约陷入震荡调整。现货价格小幅上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4040元/吨涨至4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡， 盘面升水维持。 豆粕01合约震荡调整。豆粕现货价格小跌，张家港43粕由3000元/吨跌至2980元/吨附近。基差震荡，盘面维持小幅 升水。 豆粕或延续震荡走势 2025年11月25日 （1）国产大豆减产，继续去库。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下调19 万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆开始去库。据钢联：截至11月21日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至79%；安徽大豆 余粮占比落至78%；河南大豆余粮占比落至80%；山东大豆余粮占比落至86%。黑龙江地区大豆库存低于近年同期，销售 较快。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，港口大豆库存回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月21日，油厂大豆到港量为204.7 ...

饲料养殖周度报告 新纪元期货研究20251121 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 品 种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/13 | | 周变动 | | | 现货指标 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/13 | 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | （%) | | | | | | | （%) | | 豆 粕 | M2601 | 3017 | 3071 | -54 . | 00 | -1 . | 76 | 豆粕 ： 43%蛋 白 汇总 ： 价格 山 ： | 2990 | 3020 | -30 | 00 . | -0 99 . | | 菜 粕 | RM601 | 2412 | 2492 | ...

油厂大豆充盈，开机率再落 2025年11月11日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约在4150附近震荡加剧，多空博弈激烈。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4040元/吨附近。大豆基差 震荡走弱，盘面升水扩大。 豆粕01合约在3050附近震荡。豆粕现货价格小幅上涨，张家港43粕由2970元/吨涨至2990元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面升水扩大。 （1）国产大豆品质分化，产量微降。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下 调19万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆进入购销阶段，据钢联：截至11月7日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至90%；安 徽大豆余粮占比落至89%；河南大豆余粮占比升至90%；山东大豆余粮占比升至95%。新豆品质分化，黑龙江高蛋白大豆 受追捧。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，但后期大量美豆或装船。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中 美贸易达成农产品协议，将进口千万吨美国大豆，且未来三年内每年采购至少2500万吨。叠加此前超买南美大豆，国内 大豆供应将十分充足。中美已相互降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean supply in China will not be in short - supply in Q1 2026. The soybean market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign trade agreements, harvest conditions, and oil - mill operations. The price of soybeans and the inventory of soybean meal are under the influence of multiple factors, with soybeans expected to fluctuate strongly and soybean meal expected to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The DCE Soybean No.1 2601 contract rebounded to around 4140 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4040 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans fluctuated strongly, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The DCE Soybean Meal 01 contract rebounded to around 3060 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal rebounded, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rising from 2910 yuan/ton to around 2970 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, and the futures price maintained a small premium [4]. Supply - Side Factors - **Domestic Harvest**: The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end, with quality differentiation. Northeast soybeans are popular. As of October 31, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans dropped to 92%, while that of Anhui, Henan, and Shandong increased to 90%, 80%, and 90% respectively [4]. - **Import Situation**: China and the US have reached an agricultural product agreement. China will purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. After the China - US trade agreement, the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and China has additionally ordered 20 ships of Brazilian soybeans, with 10 ships to be shipped in December. Although some enterprises have bought US soybeans, due to high tariffs, large - scale imports are not expected before the tariff reduction. As of October 31, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.885 million tons, a month - on - month decline, and the port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, also a month - on - month decline but still at a high level [5]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US - China soybean import agreement has boosted the price of US soybeans. The US government shutdown has broken the previous record, and the US Department of Agriculture is expected to release the November supply - demand report. The cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariff reduction [5]. Oil - Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly, but the inventory of soybean meal increased again. As of October 31, the operating rate of oil mills was 61.99%, a month - on - month decline; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.108 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The output of soybean meal was 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1.153 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 4.205 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.02 days, a slight month - on - month increase [6]. Demand - Side Factors - The demand for feed is relatively strong. In the breeding industry, the pig price has rebounded from a low level, and the loss of breeding has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the loss was narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.33 yuan per head, and the loss was also narrowing. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the inventory of reproductive sows in the country was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has dropped again, and egg - laying hens are in a loss state, but the inventory in September still increased to a historical high. The demand for feed is strong [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end. With quality differentiation, Northeast soybeans are popular. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient due to imports. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure persists. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, affected by the cost increase of US soybeans and the pressure of increased supply [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report in September showed higher-than-expected yield, production, and inventory estimates for US soybeans, with a neutral to bearish impact. The overall dry and rainy conditions in the US soybean-producing areas were unfavorable for the growth of late-sown soybeans but beneficial for the harvest of early-sown soybeans. The US soybean harvest continued to progress, but US soybean exports remained weak. The Conab report in Brazil indicated that the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 177.67 million tons. Multiple bearish factors pressured US soybeans to fluctuate lower. In China, the sufficient arrival of soybeans in September supported domestic supply, and the oil mill operating rate remained at a high level. Meanwhile, the recent downstream replenishment was sluggish, resulting in a loose supply and demand situation for soybean meal in the spot market, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills continued to accumulate. The decline in US soybeans led to a weak cost of imported soybeans. Coupled with the large-scale procurement of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal in China in September, the gap in China's soybean meal for the far month decreased, and the soybean meal price fluctuated lower. It is still necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiation situation in the future. China's soybean meal is still bearish, but the short-term decline may be limited, and the Dalian soybean meal will continue the bottoming trend. The strategy is to wait and see temporarily [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1000.75 cents per bushel, down 52.25 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.96%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan per ton, down 127 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.16% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - The US soybean balance sheet is neutral to bearish, with the planting area increased by 200,000 to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 0.1 to 53.5 bushels per acre, the production increased by 9 million to 4.301 billion bushels, the crush increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the exports decreased by 20 million to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased by 10 million to 300 million bushels [10][17]. - The US soybean-producing areas are experiencing high temperatures and little rain. In the next two weeks, there will be a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in the US soybean-producing areas. As of October 3, about 37% of the US soybean-producing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year. As of the week of September 28, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 20%. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [10][20]. - US soybean exports are relatively low. As of the week of September 18, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 724,000 tons, compared with 923,000 tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, compared with 2,000 tons in the previous week [10][25]. - Brazilian soybean premiums are oscillating at high levels. The estimated exports of Brazilian soybeans in October are 7.12 million tons, an increase of 2.69 million tons year-on-year. As the Brazilian soybean inventory decreases, the near-month soybean premiums in Brazil are oscillating at high levels [10][30]. - **Supply** - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 609,000 tons from July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year-on-year [10][33]. - **Demand** - In September, the soybean meal crush decreased to 9.359 million tons, a decrease of 18.37% month-on-month and an increase of 789,100 tons or 9.21% year-on-year. The soybean meal transactions decreased to 3.1313 million tons, a decrease of 35.44%, and the pick-up increased to 4.4047 million tons, an increase of 9.97% [10][40]. - **Inventory** - In the 39th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills across the country increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, an increase of 252,500 tons or 3.63% from the previous week and an increase of 905,100 tons or 14.38% year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons or 4.86% from the previous week and a decrease of 37,300 tons or 3.04% year-on-year [10][45]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - The report mentions the basis and spreads of soybean meal, including the regional basis of soybean meal (Jiangsu), the oil-meal ratio, the 1-5 spread of soybean meal, and the soybean meal-rapeseed meal spread, but specific data and analysis are not provided [46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term market sentiment being weak. It is recommended to observe cautiously and pay attention to changes in the premium and discount quotes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Due to less rainfall in the production areas recently, the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline, and there may be room for a subsequent reduction in US soybean yield per unit [8]. - In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start decreasing, but the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain abundant in the fourth quarter. Currently, the purchasing progress for November - January is slow, and the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, with the source of supplementation yet to be determined [8]. Demand - Short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry in breeding is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply [8]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year. It is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term [8]. - The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [8]. Market Performance - Affected by Argentina's zero - tariff on soybean exports, domestic purchasing has increased. With the pressure of hedging and speculative positions, the soybean meal futures market has dropped significantly today [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a record high but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance sheet for 25/26 US soybeans. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a high level, and the impact of recent weather on it is expected to be limited. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is rising and in a cumulative inventory cycle. The short - term demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories, but downstream transactions are cautious. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to be supported by the tight supply - demand balance sheet, and the MO1 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang is 20/21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions has different values and changes, such as - 8 in Zhangjiagang, - 68 in Dongguan, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 10 with a change of 7. [6] - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread is 131. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong is 300 with a change of - 16, and the spread in the main contract is 412 with a change of - 3 [7] Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre but cut the 25/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory is reduced to 290 million bushels. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The September domestic soybean arrival is expected to be over 10 million tons, and the soybean meal is expected to be in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level [7] Demand - Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. The policy aims to control live pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume. Wheat replacing corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream soybean meal transactions this week are cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory is rising. The inventory level is lower than last year but still in a cumulative inventory cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market Outlook and Strategy - With no progress in Sino - US talks, the stabilization and rebound of Brazilian logistics, and less precipitation in the US soybean production area, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, supporting the CBOT soybean futures. Under the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. In the short - term, the trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels per acre but unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 290 million bushels, and the new - crop supply - demand balance sheet is tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate rose to 69% this week, at a high level over the years. Although recent rainfall in the production area is low and the temperature is low, the impact on the good - to - excellent rate is expected to be limited. The expected soybean arrival volume in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the soybean supply is expected to be in a stock - building cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7] Demand - High inventories of pigs and poultry support the feed demand. However, policy aims to control pig inventory and weight, which is expected to affect the long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the protein usage. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal inventory has risen, and the inventory level is lower than last year, but it is still expected to be in a stock - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market - There is no progress in Sino - US talks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized and rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of recent low precipitation in the US soybean production area on the yield. The tight supply - demand balance sheet supports the CBOT soybean futures, and the import cost supports the soybean meal price [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a historical high but unexpectedly lowered the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tightened supply - demand balance for new - crop US soybeans. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until October and then start to decline. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In the short term, the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On August 29, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95, down 16; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was - 55, down 16. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 15, down 16; in Dongguan, it was - 115, down 16; in Zhanjiang, it was - 85, down 6; in Fangcheng, it was - 75, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 9, down 13. The M1 - 5 spread was 235, up 10 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 89, up 14. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in the factory area was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the main contract was 542, down 14 [7] 2. International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0884. The soybean CNF premium showed different trends for different months in Brazil. The domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills was at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory was rising but lower than last year. The feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days were increasing [7] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, and the 25/26 US soybean ending inventory was lowered. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be over ten million tons, and the inventory is expected to accumulate until October. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] - Demand: Short - term high存栏 of pigs and poultry supports feed demand, but policy controls on pig存栏 and weight may affect long - term supply. The soybean meal price is cost - effective, but downstream transactions this week were cautious [8] 4. Market Outlook - The 101 contract is weak due to Sino - US negotiation expectations and state reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand of US soybeans supports the CBOT soybean price. The difference between US and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums has narrowed. The 001 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend [8]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight weekly decline in prices and an increase in open interest, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][2]. Market Summary - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3055 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of -1.26% [1]. - The trading range for soybean meal futures during the week was between 3027 CNY/ton and 3128 CNY/ton, with an opening price of 3094 CNY/ton [1]. - On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Export and Pricing Information - The USDA reported that for the week ending August 21, 2024/2025 soybean meal net export sales were 47,000 tons, slightly up from 46,000 tons the previous week [2]. - For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were reported at 215,000 tons, an increase from 176,000 tons the prior week [2]. - FOB Rotterdam prices for high-protein soybean meal for November delivery fell by $2/ton, reaching the lowest level since August 12 [2]. Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted an increase in soybean meal inventory and a rise in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. soybeans, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook, but limited downside due to U.S.-China trade cost support [3]. - Guohai Futures highlighted a consensus expectation of a supply-demand gap due to U.S.-China trade developments and the potential for state reserves to auction imported soybeans [3]. - Short-term factors such as rising costs and seasonal demand strength are expected to support soybean meal prices, while medium-term upward potential remains constrained [3].