Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 912,164 kilograms, with an increase of 240 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures maintained a fluctuating pattern, opening at 15,447 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 15,666 yuan, and closing at 15,521 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.44% [1] Group 2 - In the Shanghai warehouses, the total silver futures showed a net decrease of 3,483 kilograms, with specific warehouses like Zhonggongmei Supply Chain reporting a drop of 8,819 kilograms [2] - The Guangdong warehouse, Shenzhen Weibao, reported an increase of 3,723 kilograms, contributing to the overall total [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report for September indicates a clear dovish trend, suggesting a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the current data is limited, but predictions can still be made based on trends, indicating a potential for policy adjustments [1] - Bowman expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting, highlighting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the policy stance should be adjusted closer to neutral, reinforcing the dovish sentiment within the Fed [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The remarks from both Bowman and Williams have been interpreted by the market as a stronger dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report for September is perceived as "clearly dovish," indicating a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed a willingness to support a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, suggesting a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [1] Group 1 - The September non-farm payroll report reinforces evidence of a cooling labor market [1] - Michelle Bowman highlighted the limited data available to the Fed but emphasized that predictions can still be made based on trends [1] - The upcoming CPI data release will occur after the December FOMC meeting, leading to discussions based more on current labor and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - Williams and Bowman's comments are interpreted as a clearer dovish signal from the Fed, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, following a record high, is attributed to a stronger dollar and profit-taking by investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On Tuesday, gold prices fell over 6% to $4,086 per ounce, reversing much of the previous gains after reaching a historic high of $4,381.21 [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices earlier this year, nearly 60%, was driven by strong expectations for interest rate cuts, increased safe-haven demand, and rising gold reserves held by central banks [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of volatility, with short-term traders locking in profits after rapid price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with silver dropping over 8%, platinum down 4.3% to $1,569.31 per ounce, and palladium falling 6.6% to $1,397.25 [3][4]. - The decline in silver is particularly noted as it has led to a broader weakness in the precious metals sector, with predictions of potential support levels forming in the near future [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose approximately 0.4%, marking its third consecutive day of strength, which typically diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities like gold [4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates [4][5]. - Current market sentiment is shifting towards equities and corporate bonds, reducing the short-term demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that gold prices may find short-term support around $4,100 per ounce, and a drop below this level could trigger further technical selling [5]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold remains a key asset for long-term investors seeking to hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The focus in the coming weeks will likely shift from mere safe-haven sentiment to a reassessment of economic data and policy directions, with the ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 level being a critical indicator of market strength [5].

Core Viewpoint - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and opposes political interference in its operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Milan stresses that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a key foundation for economic stability and will resist any proposals to transfer control to the President [1] - She expresses concern over the politicization of the Federal Reserve's functions, particularly regarding the inclusion of climate issues in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Appointment Arrangements - Milan proposes to take an unpaid leave from the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) during her tenure at the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicts of interest [1] - She has not yet discussed long-term appointment matters with the White House and commits to resigning from the CEA if her nomination is extended [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Milan provides a layered judgment on tariffs, stating that the burden will ultimately fall on exporting countries and that tariffs have not led to measurable price increases or inflation [1] - She interprets current inflation trends as being influenced by multiple policies, noting that several initiatives from the Trump administration have significant deflationary properties [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy - Milan criticizes the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for showing complacency in the face of declining data quality and highlights the deterioration of key economic indicators [1] - She introduces the concept that any policy can be viewed as a form of "implicit taxation," affecting the economy similarly to tax policies [1] Group 5: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan states that she will not commit to supporting future interest rate cuts and will make decisions based on objective economic analysis and long-term management goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to rely on data in its next meeting to determine interest rate decisions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - For the Fed to lower interest rates, it must either be confident that inflation increases will be temporary and mild, or believe that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months and quarters [1] - This assessment assumes that there will not be a significant deterioration in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has started, emphasizing that there are many qualified candidates [4]. - Mnuchin indicated that the decision will be driven by President Trump, who is expected to move at his own pace [4]. - Speculation exists that Powell may completely exit the Federal Reserve system upon leaving his position to avoid any influence on the new Chairman [4]. Group 2: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Trump considering candidates who align more closely with his views [8][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has served as an economic advisor, which may enhance his candidacy [8]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Mnuchin, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own connections and qualifications [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Context - President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for interest rates to be below 1%, which would require a reduction of over 300 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% [7]. - Analysts suggest that such low interest rates could signal a response to a severely troubled economy, raising concerns about the implications for economic health [7].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [2][5][10]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially started, emphasizing that many excellent candidates are available [5]. - Becerra indicated that the decision will be made at President Trump's pace, and he will participate in the decision-making process [5]. - The market is closely watching the potential candidates, with Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, emerging as a leading candidate [4][14]. Group 2: Criticism of Jerome Powell - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Jerome Powell, labeling him as having a "wooden head" and expressing that interest rates should be below 1% [3][11]. - Currently, the target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating that achieving Trump's desired rate would require a reduction of over 300 basis points [11]. - Analysts suggest that a rate as low as 1% could signal severe economic distress, as such low rates are typically crisis measures [12]. Group 3: Candidates and Challenges - Kevin Hassett is seen as a strong candidate due to his close relationship with Trump and his experience in the conservative economic circle [14][15]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own strengths and connections [18][19]. - Hassett's main challenge will be to demonstrate independence while maintaining the credibility of the Federal Reserve amidst Trump's demands for lower interest rates [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, is set to deliver a speech regarding the economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates in Canada [1] Group 1 - The speech will address the economic prospects for Canada [1] - It will cover the trends in inflation that are currently affecting the economy [1] - The discussion will also include insights on interest rate policies and their implications [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in assessing economic potential due to rapid changes in trade policy and prior inventory accumulation by U.S. households and businesses [1][3] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations complicates predictions for economic growth and inflation trends [1][5] - Lower tariffs could potentially stimulate economic growth, influencing market expectations regarding the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Economic Data Summary - Despite continued growth in the U.S. economy, a sharp increase in imports has led to a contraction in economic output [3] - Advance purchasing by households and businesses to avoid tariff increases has temporarily boosted consumption but may lead to decreased demand in the future, posing risks for economic slowdown [3] - The Federal Reserve may opt to maintain current interest rates until the economic outlook becomes clearer, supporting the recent decision to keep rates unchanged to manage inflation risks [3][5] Challenges and Outlook - The complexity and challenges in the current economic environment are underscored by fluctuating trade policies, global economic uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior [5] - Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding the existing monetary policy's ability to adapt to potential future economic changes [5]