证券研究报告 固收 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com "五组利率比价关系"的启示 朱逸敏* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 央行政策利率和市场利率的关系 央行政策利率与市场利率的关系主要关注两个维度：1）OMO→资金利率→ 同业存单/短端国债利率： 5 月以来，DR001 资金利率回到政策利率附近波 动。向后看，央行几大目标更为均衡，资金面大概率延续平稳，货币市场利 率与 OMO 利差预计稳定且延续低位。2）OMO→ ...

净息差是银行利息净收入与平均生息资产的比率，衡量银行资金运用效率和盈利能力。净息差越高，通 常意味着银行的盈利能力越强。近年来，随着利率市场化的推进和LPR改革的深入，银行业净息差普遍 面临下行压力。三季度末商业银行净息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个 基点。 文/冉学东 11月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉。其中，5年期以上LPR报3.5%，上月为 3.5%。1年期LPR报3%，上月为3%。LPR继续选择"按兵不动"，连续6个月保持不变。 其实，政策基准的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%没有变化，央行没有降息的动作，LPR一般不会变动。 尽管有各方面的复杂因素，但是掣肘央行降息的人民币汇率压力今年早已解除，那么银行净息差压力可 能是最主要的掣肘力量。 从今年三季度数据看，银行业净息差下行幅度有所收窄，整体趋于稳定，但仍呈现出稳中微降态势。数 据显示，2025年一季度商业银行净息差为1.43%，二、三季度均为1.42%。银行业净息差整体仍处于下 行通道，净息差低位徘徊。 同时，商业银行规模扩张步伐也有所放缓。根据央行发布的《2024年第四季度货币政策执行报告》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products is highlighted, with the recent announcement from Meizhou Commercial Bank regarding the cessation of five-year fixed deposits and automatic renewal services marking a significant shift in the banking landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product due to policy adjustments, affecting customers who can no longer benefit from automatic renewal services [2]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, which explicitly stated the cancellation of five-year fixed deposits [7]. - A total of seven banks, including Meizhou Commercial Bank and Zhongguancun Bank, have removed five-year fixed deposits from their platforms, with some banks also discontinuing three-year fixed deposits [8]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - In response to pressure on net interest margins, many small and medium-sized banks have begun a new round of interest rate cuts, with significant reductions observed in deposit rates since October [9]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank reduced its three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, respectively, marking a drop of 80 basis points [9]. - The overall trend indicates that small banks are aligning their deposit rates with larger banks, leading to a flattening of what were previously higher interest rates [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing adjustments in deposit products and interest rates reflect the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in managing their funding costs while trying to attract deposits [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current low net interest margins may lead to further reductions in loan rates if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is cut again, which would subsequently drive down deposit rates [11][12]. - The banking sector is under pressure to balance deposit attraction with cost management, especially as the year-end approaches and banks seek to optimize their funding structures [10].

证券时报记者 贺觉渊 中国人民银行11月20日授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示，11 月1年期与5年期以上LPR分别为3.0%、3.5%，连续第六个月维持不变。鉴于作为LPR"定价锚"的公开市 场7天期逆回购利率未调整，银行净息差压力不减，市场对于LPR"按兵不动"早有预期。 "为稳息差、防风险，保持银行经营的可持续性，近期有关部门也在强化金融机构定价行为指引，约束 非理性竞争，贷款定价逐步趋于稳定。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出，后续监管引导银行降低实体 融资成本，或更倾向于通过财政贴息、结构性工具、明示综合成本等来实现。 央行近日发布的《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》专栏强调，保持合理的利率比价关系。利率 及其比价关系对宏观经济均衡和资源配置有重要导向意义。市场化利率体系有效运行，要求各类利率之 间保持合理的比价关系。 广发证券宏观分析师钟林楠在研报中表示，这要求央行通过自律机制、窗口指导等方式规范银行的存贷 款定价，保证存贷款利率能充分体现政策利率调整效果的同时合理定价风险与息差稳定，对应银行资产 与负债利率、不同类型资产收益率、不同风险利率保持合理的比价。 ...

能否跨越上市"最后一公里"？ 《投资者网》叶观复 二次辅导"卡壳" 事实上，早在2017年5月，该行便与中信建投证券签署辅导协议，开启首轮上市筹备。至2020年11月，辅导工作宣告完成，彼时券商在总结报 告中称："该行各方面运行已基本规范，不存在影响发行上市的实质问题，具备发行上市的基本条件。" 此后四年间，IPO进程戛然而止，无任何官方进展披露。市场普遍猜测，或与当时农商行整体上市政策收紧、股权结构复杂、不良资产隐忧等 因素有关。 2023年2月，杭州联合银行重启上市辅导，正式开启"二次冲刺"。截至目前，辅导期已进入第十一期，时间跨度超过两年半。最新报告显示， 当前主要问题集中在两个层面：一是尚未取得浙江省国资监管机构关于国有股权设置方案的批复；二是尚需行业监管部门出具上市批复及监管 意见书。 换言之，尽管杭州联合银行在财务指标和资产规模上已达到上市门槛，但"合规性"与"监管认可度"正成为其能否真正迈入资本市场的决定性因 素。 对这家总资产逼近6000亿元的农商行而言，IPO已不仅是融资工具，更是倒逼自身完成现代化公司治理转型的关键契机。而能否跨越这"最后 一道监管门槛"，将直接检验其从地方银行向公众公司蜕 ...

日前，内蒙古土右旗蒙银村镇银行的一则公告引起市场关注。根据公告，该行在降低存款利率的同时， 取消五年期整存整取定期存款。调整之前，该行五年期定期存款利率为1.9%，比该行三年期定期存款 （调整前）低0.5%。该行也是业内首家正式宣布取消五年期定期存款产品的商业银行。 此外，在内蒙古昆都仑蒙银村镇银行最新的存款利率公告表中，五年期定存产品利率一栏显示为空缺。 记者注意到，湖北荆门农商银行也于11月12日下调了定期存款利率，其50万元起存的特色产品"福满 存"不再提供五年期选项。 事实上，此类调整在民营银行中已早有端倪。包括浙江网商银行、中信百信银行、安徽新安银行、苏商 银行、中关村银行在内的多家银行，已不再通过手机银行或APP提供五年期定期存款产品，部分银行甚 至下架了三年期产品。 "当前部分银行调整大额存单、定期存款等产品发行计划，包括压缩发行规模、下架部分产品以及下架 智能通知存款产品等，主要是为了降低存款利率，压降负债成本。"招联首席研究员董希淼指出，在存 款利率市场化改革背景下，央行已经建立存款利率市场化调节机制，商业银行可相对灵活调整存款利 率。 记者走访发现，当前下架三年期、五年期定期存款产品的情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is experiencing a significant divergence in credit growth, with state-owned banks increasing their share of new credit while smaller banks are seeing a decline [1][2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has stabilized, with a slight increase observed in shareholding banks [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing bond allocations to drive total asset growth, particularly for state-owned and city commercial banks [2] - The overall asset quality of banks remains stable, but there is a noticeable divergence, with non-listed banks experiencing a rise in non-performing loans [9][20] - The report suggests that the banking sector is currently undervalued, with A-share banks trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.73 and Hong Kong-listed state-owned banks at 0.55 [10][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Credit Growth and Market Dynamics - Recent financial data indicates that new RMB loans and social financing are significantly lower than the same period last year, reflecting weak financing demand [1] - The decline in real estate loans and the low credit dependence of light asset industries are impacting the competitive landscape among banks [1] Section 2: Asset Growth and Bond Allocation - State-owned and city commercial banks have shown a notable increase in total asset growth compared to joint-stock banks, attributed to their stronger liability bases and increased bond allocations [2] - The report anticipates a continued trend of credit expansion among banks with strong credit growth potential and increased bond allocations [2] Section 3: Net Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% for the first three quarters of the year, indicating stabilization [3] - The report notes that banks with a higher proportion of credit business and better middle-income advantages are likely to perform better in terms of fundamentals [10] Section 4: Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was reported at 1.52%, with a slight increase observed [9][20] - State-owned and shareholding banks maintained stable non-performing loan ratios, while city and rural commercial banks experienced a faster increase [9][20] Section 5: Market Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the current valuation of the banking sector is significantly lower than that of banks in major international economies, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [10][11] - The report recommends focusing on state-owned banks, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank as investment opportunities [12]

总量：逐步淡化规模指标。近三年10月份，社会融资规模平均增加1.39万亿，2025年10月新增社融大幅低于季节性表现，但由于政府债融资节奏错位，9 月至10月政府债融资同比少增推动新增社融屡屡低于季节性，反而符合市场预期，10月份剔除政府债融资后的存量社会融资增速小幅下降0.02个百分点至 5.92%，显示私人部门融资更加平稳。人民银行在2025年第三季度货币政策执行报告中开辟一个专栏《科学看待金融总量指标》，再次强调"未来金融总 量增速有所下降是自然的"，并且"逐步淡化对数量目标的关注"，截至10月末，社会融资规模和M2分别同比增长8.5%和8.2%，继续高于名义GDP增速，金 融资源供给与经济增长的融资需求基本匹配。 芦哲、王洋（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 2025年11月13日，人民银行发布2025年10月金融统计数据： （1）社会融资规模：2025年10月新增社融8,150亿元，同比少增5,970亿元；存量社融增速较上月末环比回落0.2个百分点至8.5%。从社融分项来看，10月 份既是贷款投放"淡季"，也是政府债发行的低潮期，人民币贷款和政府债融资同比少增属于预期 ...

Group 1 - Zhejiang Commercial Bank is no longer the leader among Zhejiang banks, as it has been surpassed by Ningbo Bank in total assets and operating income [1] - In the first three quarters, Zhejiang Commercial Bank reported a net profit of 11.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.59%, with a more significant drop of 18.45% in the third quarter [1][2] - The bank is experiencing a lack of growth momentum, contrasting with the overall trend in the banking industry, where 42 A-share listed banks achieved a net profit growth of 1.5% to 1.6% [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin (NIM) of Zhejiang Commercial Bank has been declining, reaching a historical low of 1.42% by the end of the second quarter [6][12] - The bank's NIM for the first three quarters was 1.67%, slightly above the industry average but still down 13 basis points year-on-year [11][12] - The bank's reliance on high-cost time deposits is squeezing its interest margin, with an average interest-bearing liability cost rate of 1.95% [14][15] Group 3 - The bank's non-interest income has also declined, with a 14.3% year-on-year drop in the first three quarters, contrasting with a 61.7% increase in the previous year [17] - The bank's strategy has shifted from pursuing high growth to focusing on quality and efficiency, as indicated by its new leadership [26][34] - The bank's asset quality has improved, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.36%, down from 1.53% at the end of 2021, although it remains lower than its peers [20][22] Group 4 - The new president of Zhejiang Commercial Bank faces dual pressures of transformation and compliance, as the bank has received multiple regulatory fines for various violations [30][31] - The bank's provisioning coverage ratio has dropped to 159.56%, indicating a potential weakening of its financial buffer against future asset quality fluctuations [25] - The bank's retail banking segment has reported losses, with credit impairment losses exceeding income in the first half of 2025 [23]

Core Insights - The recent announcement by Inner Mongolia's Tongyu Mengyin Village Bank to cancel its 5-year fixed deposit product marks a significant shift in the banking sector, reflecting a broader trend of declining deposit rates and the market's response to interest rate adjustments [1][3][6] Deposit Rate Trends - Many banks are suspending or lowering the rates on 5-year fixed deposit products, with some banks like China Merchants Bank offering only a 1.3% interest rate for 5-year deposits, which is lower than the 1.4% for 2-year deposits [2][4] - The phenomenon of longer-term deposit rates being lower than shorter-term rates has become common, with several banks reporting that their 5-year deposit rates are less attractive compared to 3-year options [3][5] Market Dynamics - The market for 3-year specialty fixed deposit products is highly competitive, with customers needing to "抢" (grab) limited quotas, indicating a scarcity of available products [1][2] - Banks are adjusting their deposit products in response to market conditions, with some banks increasing the entry thresholds for 3-year deposits, reflecting a shift in customer demand and risk appetite [3][4] Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that deposit rates will continue to decline, driven by banks' need to reduce funding costs and maintain profitability amid shrinking net interest margins [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments in deposit products and rates are seen as necessary for banks to manage their liabilities effectively, especially for smaller banks that may struggle with long-term deposits [8][9]