很多人被上涨惯性锁定心理，总是想有个什么新的主线马上能切换上，再嗖嗖地往上拉，但大多数现实是：即便有新的主线，也是从回调的洗礼中脱颖而 出的。 并非技术无用，只是你不会用或者错用，或者明明看到了却选择不相信。 技术分析并不是通过一个MACD即将金叉就幻想到5000点，而是客观呈现当下的态势。 最近我的看法一直是偏空的，技术信号告诉我这里风险越来越大了，持股和仓位不得不收缩到窄小的范围。 昨天的跳空天量长阳怎么样？这不是好几本经典书籍都有讲到过的卖出方法么。 虽然上证指数这一个月强势横盘，同时创业板和科创板不断新高，但动量指标显示，这是次级别背离式突破，这一点前些天的文章中我有系统讲过。就像 一个东西往上抛，顶部有个减速过程，这就是顶背离。克服波段顶背离继续加速的例子非常少见。 市场靠什么撑着，大家都心知肚明。算力这块，主板有工业富联，创业板有易中天、胜宏，盘子也都不小了。算力停下后，创业板有储能续命，主板有金 属顶住，就这么个局面。 现在，只要算力、储能、金属一松劲，指数大阴线马上就来了，工业富联这么大盘子，成交量5日均已经明确掉下20日均了，弧形下降，能扛得住吗？ 指望券商？哈哈，券商全靠散户的想象力，偶尔 ...

来源：南篱论金 今天十月三日，周五，收周线啦，各位早！ A、关于风险： 明天我就要正式开启假期啦！ 黄金大洗盘，今天怎么说； 原油黑车下坠，三冲四破诚不欺我； 美元就是卡这里了，等待。 日线上的构成是真的有意思，周三一根流星线，周四一根阴烛刷新高点后猛跌，将洗盘二字运用到极致。但是日线当前还在相对高位的震荡， 下方呢，MACD快慢线金叉持续运行，力度较强，一时半会儿的，只有形成死叉才能真正下跌，否则就不想那么多了。下方关注前低的得失即 可。 短线上，小时图的顶背离终终终于修正好了，然后到四小时上呢，死叉成立，布林三轨呆滞走平。我也在考虑，昨天的楔形破位了之后，看一 下回踩反压力线的情况呢。也就是60—65区间的得失，下方呢，先关注43一带即可。 原油方面，隔夜报收含上影线的大阴烛体。参与上，提示观察破位情况，实盘无参与。 原油处在三冲四破和三重底的边缘，前低最重要。前一天让实盘平出，第二天实在无法下手，得亏我谨慎呐。好消息是，又可以找机会抄底了 呢，日线的低点相连，找一找趋势线的支撑好了。 短线上，小时图底背离成立，是有些反弹的势头的。四小时的结构上，却是MACD快慢线死叉延续，都没有一点拐头迹象，所以再等等 ...

美国政府正式关门了，具体什么时间开门目前还没有任何消息，但是可以确定的是这个事件对于未来美国经济数据的公布可能会有延后的表现，也就是晚间 美盘的经济数据可能就不公布了。在现阶段尤其是美盘，美国股市的常规理解，因为政府的关门，股市下跌是常规理解。 结合市场即将迎来重要的就业数据，市场不确定性增加，短期黄金日内的价格走势基本也是趋向于震荡的表现，对于未来重点留意地缘风险，以及美国裁员 的消息即可。晚上大概率黄金还是要新高的表现，就看美股会不会开启下跌了来看今天的技术面分析： 国际黄金一大早在3859做了多单，但是做进去价格就破位，结合早间9点的一小时收线，我看实体跌破了前期的实体支撑，虽然没有扫损，但是感觉一小时 级别K线收线连续三根构成了空方炮的K线形态，所就觉得行情已经破位不应该继续持有了，于是就在3856亏损全部出了。出完之后一小时价格又给拉上来 了。面对这样的走势来讲，结合技术面分析来看 四小时级别K线结构上依旧是低点抬升，高点创新高，属于上涨趋势，并且MACD指标来看，快慢线位于零轴上方正值区，只是快慢线形成了死叉给出的下 跌回调信号。总体意思就是当前四小时级别趋势继续看涨不变，但是处于上涨趋势的回调阶 ...

- The report mentions the "Four-Driver Industry Rotation Model" as a key quantitative model for sector allocation recommendations[2][8] - The model suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, retail, agriculture, communication, machinery, power equipment, and computing based on its analysis[8][17] - The model's results are presented in a tabular format, highlighting potential opportunities in specific industries like non-ferrous metals and media, which are flagged as having "profit effect anomalies"[17]

01 持股周期也比较长，年度换手率200%左右。重仓行业以电子、军工、机械设备、有色金属、化工等制造业为主。 交银的刘鹏有变动的迹象，管理的3只基金全部增聘基金经理。 代表基金"交银先进制造"增聘的还是同样大制造背景，过去一段时间业绩和刘鹏不相上下的郭若。 | 草金代码 | 基金简称 | 自全规模 (亿元) | 前任 直令经典 | 现任 其全经典 | 変更日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 519704. OF | 交银先进制造A | 46.22 | 刘鹏 | 刘鹏,郭若 | 2025/9/15 | | 010936. OF | 交银均衡成长—年持有A | 27.8 | 刘鹏 | 刘鹏,徐嘉辰 | 2025/9/11 | | 009402. OF | 交银启明A | 17.23 | 刘鹏 | 刘鹏,周珊珊 | 2025/9/15 | | | | 制表: 博猫的丰收日 | | | | 下图中的黑线是郭若管的"交银启信"，不算建仓期的择时，净值走势和"交银先进制造"基本一致。 刘鹏大家应该比较熟悉了，大制造背景，2014年6月毕业后加入交银施罗德，研究方向覆盖 ...

Group 1 - The historical context of market movements indicates that significant upward trends are often accompanied by volatility and high-volume sell-offs, suggesting potential market tops [1] - Subsequent market behavior can defy initial expectations, as seen in past trends where markets continued to rise despite early signs of weakness [2] - The recent market pullback is characterized as mild and friendly, with a transition to new leading sectors, indicating a potential for further upward movement [5] Group 2 - The peak values of VAD (Volume Accumulation Distribution) serve as a critical reference point; as long as there is no divergence at the peaks, new highs can be anticipated [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A-share market**, specifically focusing on the **科创 50 Index** and **创业板 Index**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Risks**: The 科创 50 Index and 创业板 Index are experiencing short-term adjustments due to a strong currency, with technical indicators suggesting a potential risk of correction after rapid price increases [1][3][4]. 2. **Current Market Definition**: The market is characterized as a "systematic slow bull," indicating a slower upward trend compared to previous bull markets in 2015 and 2019-2021 [1][11]. 3. **Support Levels**: The expected support level for the market is around **3,700 points**, with potential for a rebound near the **30-day moving average** [1][7][12]. 4. **Short-term Buying Opportunities**: The area around **3,700 points** is seen as a short-term buying opportunity for investors looking to increase their positions [12]. 5. **Mid-term Targets**: The mid-term target for the market remains unchanged at **4,132 to 4,200 points**, despite short-term adjustments [13]. 6. **Technical Signals**: The presence of a "top divergence" in the 科创 50 Index indicates a lack of internal momentum, suggesting a potential for short-term corrections [4][17]. 7. **Sector Recommendations**: Recommended sectors for investment include **large financials (banks, real estate, state-owned enterprises)** and the **social services industry** [1][23][32]. 8. **Market Volatility**: The market is currently experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the 创业板 and 科创 50, which are more sensitive to market fluctuations [18][22]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: The strategies include "comprehensive push" and "targeted strikes" in sectors showing improved sentiment, such as **innovative pharmaceuticals, optical modules, and solid-state batteries** [2][21]. 10. **Potential for Small Brokers**: Small brokers are highlighted as having greater investment potential due to their lower price levels and higher elasticity compared to larger brokers [24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The analysis draws parallels with past market behaviors, particularly the **2020-2021 slow bull market**, to inform current expectations [8][9]. 2. **Market Fragmentation Risks**: There is a risk of market fragmentation, where some stocks reach new highs while others fall, indicating underlying instability [19]. 3. **Economic Growth Drivers**: Future economic growth is expected to rely heavily on **infrastructure and real estate investments**, especially in the latter half of the year [29][31]. 4. **Real Estate Sector Dynamics**: The real estate sector is performing well due to favorable policies and its critical role in economic growth, particularly in the context of recent government statements [26][31]. 5. **Cautious Approach to Timing**: Investors are advised not to wait for precise market levels before making investment decisions, as this could lead to missed opportunities [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and investment strategies.

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance of various leading companies in different sectors, highlighting their recent breakthroughs and market movements [1][2][3][4][5][6]. - The consumption sector is represented by companies like Wancheng and Ruoyu Chen, with Ruoyu Chen showing significant upward movement [1]. - The battery sector is led by CATL, which has broken through a critical high point, signaling positive momentum for the battery industry [2]. - The computing power sector is exemplified by Industrial Fulian, which has shown strong performance, indicating robust market interest [3]. - The CXO sector features WuXi AppTec, which is also experiencing notable gains, alongside BeiGene, which is making a subtle comeback in the innovative drug space [4]. - The military industry is represented by Great Wall and North Industries, which have shown signs of a potential third wave of growth [5]. - The rare earth sector is highlighted by Northern Rare Earth, with a mention of the broader rare earth market dynamics [6]. Group 2 - The article notes a lack of participation from the semiconductor sector, suggesting recent volatility may have led to a temporary withdrawal from the spotlight [6]. - There is a concern regarding the overall market volume, with suggestions that the market needs to increase trading volume to sustain momentum [6]. - The article discusses the potential for a market correction, particularly in the ChiNext index, which is showing signs of divergence and weakness [6]. - The expectation for the upcoming week is for a healthy adjustment in the market, with a focus on maintaining key support levels [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant shift, characterized by a stark contrast between the performance of major indices and the majority of individual stocks, indicating a potential manipulation of market dynamics by institutional investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index opened positively but saw over 3,000 stocks decline, highlighting a "red fat green thin" scenario [1]. - Institutional investors executed a strategy of "robbing the poor to give to the rich," with large orders totaling 5.8 billion yuan, while retail investors sold off 9.2 billion yuan [1]. - A sudden 24 billion yuan sell-off caused the index to drop close to the 3,700-point mark, followed by a rapid recovery in the liquor sector, showcasing a "pitfall" strategy [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The software development sector faced a 1.7% decline, while AI concept stocks saw a significant drop in interest [1]. - Liquor stocks, particularly Wuliangye and Moutai, experienced substantial gains, with Wuliangye's trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan [2]. - The traditional Chinese medicine sector, previously favored, became neglected, indicating rapid sector rotation [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Investor Behavior - Northbound capital showed a split, with 1.28 billion yuan entering the Shanghai Stock Exchange while 730 million yuan exited the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]. - Investors are reportedly shifting from tech stocks to blue-chip stocks in the liquor and banking sectors, indicating a cautious approach to high-valuation tech stocks [2]. - The financing balance remained stable at 1.52 trillion yuan, despite rising concerns reflected in the VIX index climbing to 18.5 [9]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The GC001 rate surged to 3.2%, signaling tightening liquidity conditions [3]. - Three potential market scenarios were outlined: a bullish breakout above 3,746 points, a neutral consolidation between 3,720-3,740 points, or a bearish drop below 3,700 points [3][5][7]. - The earnings season revealed that 35% of the 2,100 reported financial results fell short of expectations, particularly in the new energy sector [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates starting in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nomura's economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also for a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, although there is disagreement among economists regarding the timing of these cuts [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The current USD index is at 97.86, with a slight increase of 0.02% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The 20-period moving average (97.5513) and the 50-period moving average (97.7919) are converging, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, but the price has not effectively broken through the resistance at the 50-period moving average [1] - The RSI indicator is at 71.91, indicating an overbought condition, and a potential "divergence" pattern is forming, where the price reaches a new high while the RSI does not [1]