炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年1月12日，A股市场单日总成交额突破3.6万亿元，刷新2024年10月8日的历史纪录，再创成交新 高。随着近期市场持续上涨，部分投资者开始关注如何前瞻性地识别潜在调整信号。本期报告将围绕这 一主题展开初步探讨，着重探讨技术分析中经常提及的"天量天价"现象，以期为左侧布局提供参考。 "天量天价"通常指，当市场出现一段时期内明确且难以超越的巨量成交时，往往可能对应价格的重要顶 部拐点。其逻辑在于，若后续量能无法持续放大，可能出现"量价背离"，对多头走势构成压力。但回顾 A股历史也可发现，并非所有重要价格拐点都伴随"天量"，即天量与天价不一定同步出现。 若要更严谨地运用这一信号，我们建议结合以下几点辅助观察：是否有真实场外资金持续入场；基本面 预期或实际基本面是否已发生显著变化；市场情绪是否显现"非理性繁荣"特征。 就当前市场而言，成交额持续放大并创出历史极值，表明场内资金活跃度已被充分调动。然而，场外资 金是否实质性进场、本轮行情的支撑逻辑与基本面是否匹配，以及市场情绪是否趋于过热，仍需进一步 跟踪与确认。 需要说明的是，本期未着 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of water management wisdom in governance, highlighting the historical significance of the Dujiangyan irrigation system as a model for modern governance practices [1][9][10] Group 1: Principles of Water Management - "People-oriented" is a fundamental principle in water management and governance, reflecting the integration of Marxist historical perspectives and Chinese philosophies [1][4] - The concept of "因地制宜" (adaptation to local conditions) is crucial for effective decision-making in water management, ensuring that strategies are based on specific local realities [2][3][4] - "顺势而为" (going with the flow) is highlighted as a systematic approach to water management, emphasizing the need to respect natural laws and utilize modern technology [5][6] Group 2: Modern Governance and Development - The article discusses the necessity of integrating regional differences into high-quality development strategies, transforming these differences into comparative advantages [4][8] - The "十五五" (14th Five-Year Plan) emphasizes the importance of localized strategies while maintaining a unified national framework, allowing for optimal solutions tailored to local conditions [4][10] - The governance approach must focus on achieving the fundamental interests of the people, ensuring that development outcomes are shared and evaluated based on public satisfaction [9][10] Group 3: Cultural and Historical Context - The concept of "天人合一" (harmony between humans and nature) is presented as a characteristic of Chinese culture, advocating for a holistic view of water management that considers ecological balance [7][8] - Historical water management practices, such as those from ancient figures like Da Yu, are cited as foundational to understanding contemporary governance challenges [5][7] - The article concludes that the wisdom derived from water management practices can guide modern governance, contributing to the realization of a prosperous society [10]

商品期货领域，得特别提提我的"明星品种"——豆粕期货！最开始是在集思录看到一位老师 推荐豆粕ETF，我改进了一下，直接瞄准了豆粕ETF的标的期货。在我觉得不算高的位置先建 了底仓，然后就开启网格交易模式：涨10元卖10手，跌10元买10手，操作起来超顺手。豆粕 期货特别给力，上下都有明确的高低位，波动又大、交易还活跃，每天至少能成交一笔网格 交易，平均下来一天能做3-4笔，妥妥的"现金流小能手"，涨到高位时择机平掉底仓，等待下 次价格合适再开仓。至于玉米、猪肉这些其他商品品种，试下来都不怎么赚钱，还是豆粕最 适合我操作。 2025年的剩余交易日已经不多了，年底降低持仓、减少操作，收益基本定型，干脆提前来波 年度总结，复盘这一年的投资旅程。 年初我本来定了"少投点钱"的大方向，所以开局投入比较克制，核心布局了两大块：转债的 高价低溢价策略，再加上商品期货。没想到年初行情直接开了挂！高价债策略上手就猛涨， 没花多少时间就斩获了50%+的收益（小账户实盘）。我这人的投资风格就是"顺势而为、越 涨越敢追"，跟着行情节奏不断加仓，最高时候期指占了30%、转债70%、商品期货30%， 只不过后期加仓的转债都换成了有限低溢 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching a seven-week high and surpassing the $4,300 mark, driven by U.S. labor market data and Federal Reserve policy expectations [2][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, slightly above the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% [2] - The average hourly wage growth has slowed, indicating a deceleration in wage increases, which supports the notion of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold experienced fluctuations, initially facing resistance at $4,320 and later rebounding to around $4,300, with a daily close forming a doji candlestick pattern [3] - The market sentiment showed signs of correction, suggesting a possible short-term adjustment, with key resistance levels at $4,355 and support around $4,300 [3][5] - The trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with specific attention to the $4,350-$4,370 resistance and $4,300-$4,280 support levels [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices showed a slight rebound but failed to maintain strength, having broken key support levels, with Brent crude trading around $55.67 per barrel [6] - The market sentiment has turned bearish, with significant reductions in net long positions for Brent crude oil, indicating a shift towards a more negative outlook [6] - The technical indicators suggest a continued downward trend for oil prices, with a focus on resistance at $58.0-$59.0 and support at $55.0-$54.0 [7]

原油消息面解析：周一（北京时间12月15日）亚市早盘，美原油交投于57.53美元/桶附近，油价上周录得超过4%的周跌幅，市场焦点仍集中在全球供应过剩 的担忧和乌克兰和平协议上。油价上周五延续跌势，两大基准原油价格均以下跌收盘，并录得超过4%的周跌幅。市场焦点仍集中在全球供应过剩的担忧 上，这抵消了地缘政治紧张局势带来的支撑。具体来看，布伦特原油期货结算价报每桶61.12美元，下跌0.16美元；美国原油期货结算价报每桶57.44美元， 同样下跌0.16美元。 投资本身没有风险，失控的投资才有风险。不要用你的侥幸去挑战行情，运气这东西是有，碰上一次别再去奢望第二次。学会止损，止损比止盈更重要，因 为任何时候保本都是第一位的，盈利是第二位的；止损的最终目的是保存实力，提高资金利用率和效率，避免小错铸成大错，甚至导致全军覆没。止损不能 规避风险，但可以避免遭到更大的意外风险，所以止损技巧是每个投资者都应该掌握的。贺博生提示，止损就是投资的生命线，不要因小失大最后得不偿 失。记住一句话，当你真正懂得如何去控制风险才是你扭亏为盈的时候。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一（12月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the influence of various stock trading theories in the A-share market, particularly focusing on the "follow the main force" theory and trend-following theory [1][6]. - It highlights the perception of "main force" or "庄家" as a powerful entity in the stock market, with many believing that following them can lead to significant profits [1][5]. - The article questions the effectiveness of the "follow the main force" theory, citing examples of public and private funds that often incur losses, indicating that even established players are not infallible [4][5]. Group 2 - The article explains that the "follow the main force" theory is not universally applicable, as multiple main forces can exist within a single stock, leading to conflicting interests [5]. - It points out the reasons for the enduring influence of the "follow the main force" theory, including its unverifiability and the psychological reliance of investors on such theories for certainty [6][7]. - In contrast, the trend-following theory focuses on the overall market direction rather than individual players, suggesting that understanding market forces can lead to more consistent trading success [8][9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the achievements of Xu Xiaozhong, who won the second prize in risk control at the 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition, emphasizing his trading philosophy of "following the trend and prioritizing risk control" [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Xu Xiaozhong's trading philosophy prioritizes risk control, stating that "stop-loss is the lifeline of a trader" [2]. - He emphasizes the importance of setting stop-loss points based on technical support levels or fundamental key points before each trade and strictly adhering to them [2]. - The principle of position management he follows includes starting with a light position, increasing it in line with the trend, and reducing it against the trend, ensuring account safety during extreme market conditions [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy - Xu's trading system is built on a three-dimensional operational logic: macro analysis for strategic direction, industry research for target selection, and technical analysis for timing [1]. - He identifies potential sectors for investment, such as energy and precious metals, based on macroeconomic signals and domestic policies [1]. - His approach to technical analysis involves entering trades decisively at key support levels when price breaks out of previous ranges with significant volume [1]. Group 3: Future Plans and Market Perspective - Xu plans to further optimize his trading system by adjusting stop-loss ratios and position parameters based on the volatility of different commodities and incorporating new data analysis tools to gauge market sentiment [3]. - He views the futures market as not only a platform for wealth growth but also as a place for personal development, emphasizing the importance of recognizing market dynamics and personal weaknesses [3].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden passing of Wang Guobin, founder and general manager of Quanguo Fund, at the age of 57, is a significant loss for the Chinese asset management industry, as he was a prominent figure dedicated to the development of China's capital market and asset management sector [1][5]. Group 1: Company Development - Under Wang Guobin's leadership, Quanguo Fund rapidly grew within three years, promoting the investment philosophy of "seeking clear springs and planting good trees," which resonated well with investors [4]. - Wang's long-term value investment approach not only earned the company a good reputation but also provided substantial returns for investors, emphasizing the importance of patience in the investment process [4][5]. - Quanguo Fund expressed its commitment to continue Wang's legacy by maximizing long-term value for investors and maintaining the company's core values [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Wang Guobin's contributions to the Chinese securities market spanned 27 years, during which he witnessed and participated in significant reforms in the capital market post-reform and opening-up [5]. - His investment philosophy of "value-based and trend-following" has influenced many young investors, showcasing his impact on the next generation of financial professionals [5]. - The asset management industry will continue to benefit from Wang's investment principles, management wisdom, and professional ethics, which are expected to thrive in the sector [5][6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, with a low of $3963 and a high of $4030, reflecting a 53% increase this year but a decline of over 8% since the peak on October 20 [2][4] - Three uncertainties are impacting gold prices: unclear Federal Reserve policy, U.S. government shutdown leading to data void, and the end of China's gold tax exemption policy [2] - Short-term gold price is expected to face further correction risks, but it is emphasized that the pause in gold's upward trend is merely a breather, not a collapse [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is currently in a sideways trading pattern, with key resistance levels at $4030-4050 and support levels at $3960-3940 [4] - The market sentiment appears cautious, with the potential for further adjustments expected, particularly towards the $3920-4000 range [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The U.S. crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern below $61, following OPEC+ policy adjustments, with a current oversupply of approximately 1.9 million barrels per day [5][6] - The market is at a crossroads between fear and fundamentals, with potential short-term price increases due to U.S. sanctions, but ongoing OPEC+ production increases may challenge price support [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil price has shown a recovery trend, with three consecutive bullish candles observed, indicating a potential upward movement in the short term [6] - The short-term outlook suggests a focus on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $62.5-63.5 and support levels at $59.5-58.5 [6]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has reached a historic production cut agreement of 9.7 million barrels per day, signaling an end to the oil price war and leading to a rebound in international oil prices [1] Oil and Chemical Industry - The recent production cut is expected to create a buying opportunity for crude oil and chemical products, as prices have reached a low point and are likely to recover [1] - The statement emphasizes that the value of oil will eventually return, suggesting that the current price disparity between oil and water is unsustainable [1] Market Conditions - Global market volatility has led to a decline in A-shares, indicating the need for asset allocation to hedge against market risks [1] - The agricultural sector is also experiencing price increases due to the intensifying pandemic, highlighting broader inflationary pressures across various commodities [1]