大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾 第一篇：《 股神的价值投资策略，在A股也有效吗？ 》 第二篇：《 巴菲特价值投资的三次演化：从"捡烟蒂"到买优秀公司 》 第三篇：《 学会估值，轻松投资：普通投资者也能学会的实用估值方法 》 第四篇：《 巴菲特的资产配置智慧：股债配置的三大经典策略 》 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 股债再平衡策略 这几期螺丝钉带你读书，介绍的，是价值投资经典书籍，《证券分析》。 上一篇，咱们介绍了，最经典的三种股债资产配置策略。 · 格雷厄姆和巴菲特的「估值配置策略」。 · 固定股债比例的「目标风险策略」。 · 根据年龄分配股债比例的「目标生命周期策 略」。 但每一种股债配置策略，都会涉及到一个问题：股票和 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with concerns about whether the market has overheated due to rapid index increases [1][3] - The core driver of the recent market rally is the improved risk-return ratio of equity assets, as bond yields have fallen below 2%, prompting investors to seek higher returns in risk assets [3][4] - There is a recognition of localized bubbles, particularly in the technology sector represented by computing power, where some stocks have seen significant short-term price increases [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The importance of multi-asset allocation is emphasized in the context of increasing market volatility and frequent style rotations [7][8] - Different investment strategies are discussed, including absolute return focus, risk parity methods, and the use of alternative assets to manage portfolio volatility [7][8][9] - A recommendation for a mixed strategy involving approximately 30% risk assets, with a focus on low-volatility stocks and quantitative selection, is presented as a long-term investment approach [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) trading strategy to the "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD) paradigm, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment strategies [1]. Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut, which is perceived as credible amid a backdrop of accelerating U.S. economic growth [2]. - The current market reaction suggests a resurgence of risk parity strategies, breaking through highs for 2024 [2]. Asset Performance - Year-to-date, asset performance has shown significant divergence, with gold leading at a 38% increase, outperforming global equities (25%) and Bitcoin (23%) [4]. - In contrast, the dollar and oil have been the biggest losers, down 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5]. Economic Growth and Market Trends - Hartnett predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth, which surged by 54% since 2020, will peak in 2025, slowing from a 6% annual growth rate to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market conditions [9]. - The peak in nominal growth typically signals a peak in bond yields, suggesting the end of a prolonged bear market in bonds by 2025 [13]. Investment Opportunities - The end of the ABB trading cycle is expected to benefit long-neglected, interest-sensitive assets such as small-cap and value stocks, which are currently at near-historic low rolling return rates compared to large-cap stocks [14][13]. - Hartnett emphasizes the importance of embracing the ABD theme, advocating for investments in non-dollar assets, particularly in international markets, as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansions occur in Europe and Japan [16]. AI Bubble and Credit Market Risks - While AI remains a bright spot in the market, there are risks associated with the rapid increase in capital expenditures for AI, which have surged from 35% to 72% of cash flow in 2023 [18]. - The technology sector's credit spreads are at their narrowest since 1997, indicating a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector's spending [20]. Policy, Profits, and Political Landscape - Hartnett uses the "PPP" framework to analyze the current situation, noting that the Fed's anticipated rate cuts are seen as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks [24]. - The labor market is weak, with an average of only 64,000 new jobs added monthly over the past six months, but this is offset by a strong "K-shaped" wealth effect [25]. - Political risks are rising due to populism, high inflation, and significant wealth disparity, which may lead to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s aimed at reducing unemployment while controlling inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Recent market adjustments have led to a rebound in the bond market and a new high in gold prices, with "fixed income +" products gaining popularity, particularly the "Happiness 99 Hongyi (JinYing)" one-year holding period financial product from Hangzhou Bank, which employs a risk parity strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Product Performance - The "Happiness 99 Hongyi (JinYing)" product has achieved an annualized return of 8.18% since its inception, with a notable annualized return of 11.98% over the past three months, although it has underperformed slightly over the last six months with a return of 5.78% [1]. - The product's net value has experienced four distinct periods of increase, particularly benefiting from a rise in A-share industry ETFs and a favorable bond market, leading to significant net value growth [2]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The average net value growth rate for the "Hongyi (JinYing)" series of products in the first half of the year was only 0.66%, with two products even reporting negative returns, indicating potential risks for investors in mid-risk products [3]. - The product scored 100 in yield performance, 80 in risk control, and 12 in risk-adjusted return, ranking first among 784 similar products, demonstrating strong performance relative to peers [3].

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater Associates has become a highly sought-after hedge fund in China, akin to a luxury brand, with wealthy investors eager to invest substantial amounts to gain access to its products [2][3]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - Despite a lackluster long-term performance globally, Bridgewater's business in China has thrived, achieving a return rate exceeding 35% in 2024, even amidst market downturns [2][3]. - The firm employs an "All Weather Plus" strategy, combining risk parity with active management, which has contributed to a 40% growth in assets under management, surpassing 55 billion yuan [2][10]. - In the first seven months of 2024, Bridgewater's onshore fund in China reported an 18% return, bringing its annualized return since inception in 2021 close to 20% [10]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Bridgewater's growth in China contrasts sharply with the struggles faced by many international asset management firms, which are either underperforming or unable to capture market share from local giants [6][10]. - Competitors like D.E. Shaw and Two Sigma manage only 5 to 10 billion yuan, significantly less than Bridgewater's assets [6]. - The high demand for Bridgewater's products has led to a competitive environment, with banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank limiting the amount clients can invest, further fueling investor frustration [3][11]. Group 3: Brand Recognition and Leadership - Brand recognition and strong performance are key factors driving capital inflow into Bridgewater's funds in China, despite the absence of founder Ray Dalio in daily operations [7]. - The current CEO, Nir Bar Dea, continues to lead the firm, maintaining its positive outlook on the Chinese market [7]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Investors are increasingly willing to hold Bridgewater funds due to their low drawdown and stable returns, reflecting a desire for security in investment choices [12]. - The competitive nature of acquiring Bridgewater funds has led to a surge in demand, with reports of significant oversubscription for new fund offerings [11].

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced dramatic fluctuations this year, initially benefiting from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and strong government support for emerging industries, leading to a quick recovery [1] - Following a cooling period, the market shifted towards defensive investment styles, with many investors taking profits, but later saw renewed activity in sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Globally, indices such as the Korean Composite Index, German DAX, and UK FTSE 100 performed well in the first seven months of the year, while gold remained a popular asset class [1][2] Investment Environment - Investors are facing a complex market environment, leading to indecision and cautious behavior due to fears of missing out on potential gains while also being wary of market volatility [2] - The current market conditions highlight the need for investment products that can provide a sense of security and capitalize on various asset classes without excessive risk exposure [3][15] FOF Products - In the U.S., $3.4 trillion has been allocated to Fund of Funds (FOF) products, indicating a significant trend towards diversified investment strategies [4][5] - FOFs offer a diversified investment approach by investing in multiple funds with different strategies, which helps mitigate non-systematic risks [6] - The convenience of FOFs allows investors to save time and effort in selecting individual funds, as professional teams conduct thorough research and analysis to create optimized portfolios [7] Domestic FOF Market - The domestic FOF market has seen rapid growth since its inception, with increasing public awareness and a variety of underlying assets available for investment [9][12] - The success of products like Huaan Yingrui demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-asset strategies, achieving significant growth in assets under management [12][14] Management and Strategy - The management team behind FOF products, such as Huaan Yingrui, employs a systematic asset management approach, focusing on strategic asset allocation and risk parity to enhance risk-return profiles [16][18] - The investment strategy aims to capture upward potential while preparing for short-term volatility, aligning with current market needs for stability and growth [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Ray Dalio's investment strategies, particularly the All Weather strategy, and how his life experiences shaped his investment philosophy [3][5][8]. Group 1: Ray Dalio's Background and Investment Journey - Ray Dalio graduated high school in 1966 and invested heavily in the stock market, but faced significant losses during the market downturn in the late 1960s [13][14]. - After suffering losses in the stock market, Dalio shifted his focus to commodities, particularly gold, during the 1970s bull market [16][20]. - The price of gold surged from $37 per ounce in 1971 to a peak of $850 per ounce in 1980, leading to substantial profits for Dalio initially [18][20]. - However, by the early 1980s, gold prices collapsed, and Dalio's heavy investment in commodities resulted in significant losses [21][24]. Group 2: Development of the All Weather Strategy - Dalio's investment losses prompted him to diversify his portfolio, leading to the creation of the All Weather strategy, which aims to balance risk across various asset classes [27][28]. - The All Weather strategy involves allocating different assets, including stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate, based on their risk profiles [29][30]. - This strategy is also known as the "risk parity" strategy, where each asset class contributes equally to the overall portfolio risk [32][31]. Group 3: Performance and Implementation of the All Weather Strategy - The effectiveness of the All Weather strategy improves with a broader range of asset classes, particularly those with low correlation [41][44]. - Bridgewater Associates, Dalio's firm, offers both private and public versions of the All Weather strategy, with the private fund generally performing better [45][46]. - In 2025, Bridgewater launched a public ETF for the All Weather strategy in the U.S. market [47]. - The All Weather strategy has also been applied in the Chinese market, with a similar ETF strategy yielding approximately 60% returns over nine years [50][51]. Group 4: Advantages and Usage of the All Weather Strategy - The All Weather strategy is recognized for its stability and strong risk management, especially during periods of high asset valuation [61][62]. - It serves as a robust investment approach during the late stages of bull markets when single assets may experience significant volatility [64].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing focus of global investors on the Asia-Pacific market, driven by its robust economic growth and diversification opportunities [2][4][16] - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF (159687) has shown significant performance, achieving positive returns for three consecutive years, reflecting the underlying strength of the region's semiconductor and technology sectors [11][13] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Legendary investors like Warren Buffett and institutions such as BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are shifting their attention towards the Asia-Pacific market, indicating a broader trend among large investment firms [4][16] - Buffett's investment in Japan's five major trading companies, totaling $6.25 billion, has yielded impressive returns, with stock price increases ranging from 283% to 656% over five years [4][10] Group 2: Asia-Pacific Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the main engine of global economic growth over the next five years, according to IMF forecasts [2] - The region accounts for 57.6% of global semiconductor revenue, positioning it as a critical hub for the semiconductor industry [8][9] Group 3: ETF Performance and Structure - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF (159687) has outperformed similar indices, with a cumulative increase of 44.82% year-to-date in 2023 [13] - The ETF's index includes a balanced sector allocation, with significant weights in financials (26.38%) and technology (26.35%), providing stability and growth potential [5][10] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector Growth - The demand for semiconductors, particularly driven by AI applications, has surged, with TSMC reporting a 60.7% year-on-year increase in net profit, reaching NT$398.3 billion ($13.53 billion) [10] - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF captures this trend by including leading semiconductor companies, with TSMC being the largest component at 7.82% [10][12]