多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-02 进行交易，拉升了硅价格，短期已经到了60日均线附近，观察能否顺利突破60日均线，操作上短期可以买 入看跌期权进行保护，同时继续跟随多头，但中长线依旧高空为主。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 壁荒漠地区光伏治沙规划印发，市场情绪开始好转，乐观情绪逐步增加。库存方面，多晶硅库存处于高位 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 状态。硅片企业前期采购的多晶硅尚未完全消化，导致库存积压，对市场价格形成明显压制。今日上涨主 免责声明 要源自光伏行业减产30%消息带动，光伏行业减产利空多晶硅，但是市场当做行业产能出清，需求见底来 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][6][10] Core Viewpoints - The hype about industrial silicon production cuts has cooled down, leading to a decline in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, as the smelting profit of industrial silicon recovers and the scale of production cuts shrinks, the prices of new energy metals have risen and then fallen. It is advisable to continue to bet on volatility with wide - straddle options. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [4][5] - For polysilicon, the price will show wide - range oscillations. The short - term supply is low, but the demand may weaken in the second half of the year [8][9] - For lithium carbonate, the price will maintain oscillations. The supply is in excess, but the short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price [10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - As of July 2, the spot price has slightly increased. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, with a 0.2% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the monthly production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in May was 55,652 tons, an 8.0% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month increase and a 388.0% year - on - year increase [4] - If the production cut scope expands in July, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand is weak, and the inventory may re - accumulate. The silicon price has fallen after rising, and manufacturers can consider hedging by selling at high prices. The future silicon price will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30% year - on - year, while the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. From January to May, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - The supply news is volatile, and the production is currently low. With the arrival of the wet season, the production in the southwest may increase. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The price will show wide - range oscillations [7][8][9] Lithium Carbonate - On July 1, the closing price of the main contract increased by 0.84% to 62,780 yuan. The total position decreased by 4,592 lots. The spot price remained unchanged. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its production line, with a 6 - month shutdown. [9] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to be good in July despite it being a traditional off - season. The social inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. The price will maintain oscillations [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, without policy disturbances, it is expected to go through a long - term capacity clearance cycle, and selling hedges on rallies are recommended. The market is currently affected by factors such as high inventory levels and potential restarts of production, with a weak fundamental outlook [2]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak due to reduced consumption, lower silicon wafer production schedules, high inventory pressure, and short - term supply increases. However, policy disturbances from the photovoltaic industry are significant, and the market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2509 opened at 8000 yuan/ton and closed at 7765 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton (- 4.31%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 361076 lots, and on July 2, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 52137 lots, a change of - 336 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly. The prices of some regions like Xinjiang and the Northwest rose, while individual prices in Kunming and Tianjin decreased. Prices in Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic monomer enterprise operating rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It is expected that the domestic DMC production schedule in July will increase by about 10,000 tons, leading to more consumption of industrial silicon [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 fluctuated. It opened at 33470 yuan/ton and closed at 32700 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.39% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 61196 lots (66333 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 261490 lots [3]. - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 3.67% to 23600 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 4.10% to 13.44GW [3][4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: In June, the domestic silicon wafer production was about 58GW, and the production schedule in July decreased by about 10% due to weak demand and tightened battery supply [4]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of N - type 182mm and N - type 210mm components [4]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Focus on range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedges on rallies [2]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [2]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [2]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [2]. - **Options**: Not recommended [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [5]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [5]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [5]. - **Options**: Not recommended [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-02 股市情绪偏暖，债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货：政策开始关注制造业利润 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货方面，政策开始关注制造业利润。新的热点主题接力，恒科 创新药指数剔除CXO公司，光伏玻璃推进减产，指向产能出清加速，推动 医药、有色行业领涨。另外，中央财经委会议强调治理低价无序竞争、 推动落后产能有序退出、树立正确政绩观，或指向制造业部分行业"反内 卷"，有望推动产业链利润触底，利好通胀链，观察进一步落地措施。 在中报预告的背景下，或强化对业绩预增的关注。情绪偏暖环境下，保留 多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多单。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，我们昨日重点关注的市场 成交额出现持续回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低迷的衍生品市场 环境下，情绪指标展示同步性而并未指引性，同时隐含波动率的变化也仅 仅对应行情当日涨跌，各个品种平均隐含波动率下行0.52%。当前期权流 动性和波动率的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collective production cut of 30% by the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers is expected to help stabilize and recover glass prices, which have been under pressure due to oversupply and declining demand [1][3]. Industry Summary - On June 29, the decision for a 30% production cut was announced to address market supply-demand imbalances [3]. - Starting in July, major photovoltaic glass companies plan to implement this production cut, with expectations of a rapid decline in domestic supply, improving the supply-demand situation [3]. - The production cut is seen as a necessary measure to digest inventory and adjust production according to sales [7]. - In June, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity increased, but demand weakened, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [8]. - As of June 30, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18.5 yuan/m², down 5.13% from the previous week, indicating significant price pressure [9]. Company Responses - Fuyao Glass reported that its glass furnaces are operating normally and have not ceased production [4]. - Qibin Group stated that it has not received any notifications regarding furnace shutdowns and is currently operating normally [5]. - Anhuai High-Tech mentioned that it has not issued any formal production cut notices and is currently operating at full capacity, although it anticipates a contraction in market demand in the second half of the year [6]. - Yamaton confirmed the validity of the production cut news, stating that it will facilitate sustainable development in the industry [6]. - Sanxia New Materials plans to halt production for maintenance on one of its glass production lines [7].

针对"国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划于7月开始集体减产30%"的市场消息，亚玛顿（002623）董秘刘芹 称，光伏玻璃行业减产的消息属实，产能加速出清，将有力促进行业后续可持续健康发展。国内光伏玻 璃行业竞争日趋激烈，海外市场的巨大需求为光伏玻璃企业开辟了广阔的发展空间。"公司董事会近日 审议通过了在阿联酋投资建设年产50万吨光伏玻璃生产线项目的议案，公司将充分利用当地的资源优势 以发挥公司在光伏玻璃领域的核心技术优势，进而推动公司海外光伏玻璃产能的有效布局。"刘芹称。 (中证金牛座) ...

2025年上半年多晶硅价格虽有所下跌，但整体供应并未大幅缩减，系减产力度与有效性不足所致 市场博弈光伏减产政策预期升温。6月30日，多晶硅期货主力合约2507收涨3.46%，光伏板块同步触底 反弹，欧晶科技（001269.SZ）涨停，通威股份（600438.SH）涨逾7%，大全能源（688303.SH）收涨近 7%。 6月中旬以来，硅料企业当月产能置换情况逐渐展开，短期内下游压价严重，一线大厂几近无法成交， 二三线企业价格松动严重，呈现产量增加的态势，令市场认为减产不及预期，多晶硅期货现货价格再度 走跌。 上周周中，多晶硅期货主力合约创下上市后最低价，报31185元，现货市场亦成交低迷。当周，市场传 言多家企业多个基地新增复产计划，有统计显示，仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期7月排产10.7万 吨，此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据SMM，截至6月26日，中国多晶硅厂库存27万 吨，环比增加0.8万吨。 硅料价格下半年如何演绎？供需层面来看，4月光伏抢装潮结束后，国内光伏需求整体偏弱，海外方 面，欧洲7、8月进入暑休，短期内需求端难以支撑光伏产业链价格企稳。 对于硅料供给端变化影响，中信建投电新团 ...

Supply and Demand - As of June 19, 2025, the national float glass daily production is 155,400 tons, a decrease of 0.16% compared to June 12 [2] - For the week of June 13-19, 2025, the total float glass production reached 1,093,500 tons, an increase of 0.21% week-on-week, but a decrease of 7.88% year-on-year [2] - The total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass as of June 19, 2025, is 69.887 million heavy boxes, an increase of 202,000 heavy boxes week-on-week, which is a 0.29% increase, and a year-on-year increase of 16.82% [2] - The inventory days stand at 30.8 days, remaining stable compared to the previous period [2] Market Analysis - The glass market shows a strong performance, supported by the rise in prices of related commodities like coking coal, and improved sales in the spot market [3] - Demand is currently supported by strong purchasing from essential needs, but the market is expected to face limitations due to the seasonal slowdown during the summer rainy season [3] - The industry is experiencing excess capacity, and a resolution will require capacity reduction, with expectations for more cold repairs to bring about a genuine market reversal [3] - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 950 to 1050 points in the short term, with current support from improved spot market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry must remain vigilant against potential technological devaluation and over-investment due to new technology spillover, as well as the risk of low-price competition being replicated in the energy storage sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The SNEC Shanghai Photovoltaic Exhibition showcased a significant number of companies presenting perovskite tandem cells/components and BC technology, indicating a trend towards embracing new technologies [2]. - Major companies like LONGi Green Energy, GCL-Poly, JinkoSolar, and others are investing heavily in upgrading their production lines, with costs reaching tens of millions of yuan per GW to maintain competitiveness [3]. - The exhibition saw a notable increase in foreign participation, with approximately 500,000 attendees, reflecting a growing international interest in the photovoltaic sector [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift where the low-price competition model from the photovoltaic sector is being adopted in the energy storage market, leading to a significant drop in profit margins [4]. - The energy storage market is witnessing a trend of price reductions, with some products priced below $120 per KWh, which has decreased profit margins from 40% to 20-30% [4]. - Despite a perceived recovery in the market, the industry is still on the brink of capacity clearance, with production rates in the downstream component sector dropping below 50% [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are actively seeking solutions to mitigate "involutionary competition" within the photovoltaic industry, indicating a proactive approach to industry challenges [6].

Group 1: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector has shown a strong rebound, with major brands like "Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao" all experiencing significant gains [3][4] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a deep structural adjustment, characterized by "declining volume and rising profits," with a notable shift in consumer demographics and purchasing behavior [6][7] - The report highlights a decrease in the share of business banquets, prompting companies to adjust their product strategies, with a focus on mid-to-low-end products priced between 100 to 300 yuan [6][7] Group 2: New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has rebounded, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, with significant gains in stocks related to BC batteries and photovoltaic equipment [8][9] - Leading stock Haike New Source (301292) surged to a "20CM" limit-up shortly after market opening, indicating strong investor interest [9][12] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics by 2025, with global installation demand projected to reach 492GW to 568GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5% to 7% [13]