关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中美拥有广泛的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，双方合则两利，斗则俱伤。过去 4轮经贸磋商充分证明，中美在相互尊重、平等协商基础上，能够找到解决问题的办法。双方在中美经贸磋商机制框架下一直保持沟通，昨天还进行了工 作层会谈。我想指出，美方不能一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，拿出谈的 诚意，与中方相向而行，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过对话协商解决各自关切， 妥善管控分歧，推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。 10月14日，商务部新闻发言人就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施答记者问。 有记者问：近日，美方官员称，在得知中方对稀土等相关物项采取出口管制措施后，提出与中方进行通话，但中方推迟了这一建议。同时美方表示，双方 需要找到回到稳定局面的办法。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：中方注意到有关情况。近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施阐明了有关立场。我愿重申，关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是 中国政府依据法律法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, has indicated that the proposed 100% tariffs on China may not be implemented, reflecting a shift in the U.S. stance amid ongoing trade negotiations [5][8][12] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Bessent's comments suggest a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, emphasizing that communication channels have reopened and new working-level meetings are scheduled [8][9] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing negotiations, indicating a willingness to maintain dialogue despite tensions [9][17] - Bessent's remarks are seen as an attempt to calm U.S. financial markets, which have been volatile due to fears of a renewed trade war [12][14] Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Implications - Bessent pointed out that the U.S. has historically neglected strategic issues like rare earth elements, which China now leverages in negotiations [10][18] - The U.S. administration's aggressive rhetoric towards China is viewed as counterproductive, potentially leading to further complications in negotiations [16][17] - China's control over rare earth resources is not merely a bargaining chip but a reflection of its established dominance in the supply chain, which poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests [18][19] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Bessent's statements, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, indicating that investor sentiment may be improving amid the uncertainty [14] - However, if substantial progress is not made in the upcoming negotiations, the positive market sentiment may not be sustainable [15] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of U.S.-China relations, with both sides needing to reassess their strategies to achieve a mutually beneficial outcome [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Chinese stock market, particularly in response to the U.S. tariff situation, highlighting the mixed performance of individual stocks despite a relatively stable index performance [2][6][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3897 points, dropped to 3800 points, and closed at 3889 points, only down 7 points for the day, which exceeded market expectations [4][5]. - Despite the index's stability, many individual stocks experienced significant declines, indicating a divergence in market performance [9][10]. Tariff Situation - The risk of a renewed tariff war appears to have subsided temporarily, as the U.S. President expressed a desire to ease tensions with China [6][12]. - However, the unpredictability of the U.S. President's decisions poses ongoing risks for the market, as sudden changes in stance could lead to sharp corrections in stock prices [14][15][26]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and observe market movements rather than making hasty decisions, as significant capital is currently rotating between different sectors [22][29]. - It is suggested to focus on undervalued stocks with solid performance rather than chasing high-flying tech stocks that have already reached historical highs [24][30]. Upcoming Events - The article notes that a significant meeting at the end of the month may influence market dynamics, with major funds likely to wait for policy direction before committing to further investments [28][25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, particularly highlighting the significant increase in tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods, which reached as high as 145% [3][5][9] - China's response to US tariffs has included measures such as export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for high-tech industries, thereby impacting US companies heavily reliant on these materials [7][9] - The article notes that despite the US's attempts to negotiate and reach agreements, the trade relationship remains fraught with challenges, and recent actions from both sides have led to renewed tensions [5][11] Group 2 - The economic implications of the trade war are severe, with warnings from Moody's about potential recessions in 22 US states, affecting a significant portion of the population and leading to increased debt burdens on middle and low-income families [11][13] - The US government's debt is highlighted as a critical issue, with projections indicating a deficit of $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy and the potential for a debt crisis [13] - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of the US and Chinese economies, suggesting that the trade relationship's deterioration could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy [11][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights China's strengthened control over rare earth resources, leading to a significant shift in the U.S. administration's approach, from aggressive tariffs to a more conciliatory stance [2] - Since May, China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, potentially resulting in a loss of 14 to 16 million tons for the U.S., which could negatively impact support for the Trump administration [4] - The U.S. continues to impose tariffs but faces strong resistance from China, leading to a situation where the U.S. is increasingly on the defensive as the soybean harvest approaches [5] Group 2 - China has implemented a series of strategic measures to deter U.S. aggression, including showcasing advanced military capabilities and tightening controls over rare earth resources, which are crucial for the U.S. military industry [5] - The combination of tariff strategies, refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans, and the rare earth strategy is designed to provoke the U.S., gradually exhaust its resources, and compel it to compromise with minimal costs [7]

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The uncertainty remains, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. The A-share market may fluctuate in the short term, but there are still structural opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs. Gold is expected to continue rising, and the bond market is turning bullish [15][16]. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - In the past two weeks (20250929 - 20251012), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.24%, -1.37%, and -1.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% [3]. - Most A-share sectors rose. The Wind All-A Index changed by 1.63%. Among different indexes, the CSI A100, SSE 50, and others showed varying degrees of increase, while some indexes like the ChiNext Index and the North Securities 50 Index declined [4]. - Among the 30 CITIC industries, 25 industries rose, and 5 declined. The leading industries were non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, with gains of more than 4.0% in the past two weeks [5]. Bond Market Performance - In the past two weeks, the price of interest rate bonds rose, and the yields of most maturity varieties declined. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.28% compared to September 28, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond declined by 5.75BP to 1.8206% [6]. - The capital price decreased. As of October 11, 2025, R007 was 1.4120%, a decrease of 22.60BP compared to September 28, 2025, and DR007 was 1.3945%, a decrease of 16.11BP. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 144.64 billion yuan in the past two weeks [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5-day average of the inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 6.35 trillion yuan on September 28, 2025, to 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11, 2025 [8][9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of October 11, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 15BP to 4.05% compared to September 26, 2025 [10]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index increased by 0.64% in the past two weeks. The US dollar had different exchange rate changes against the euro, pound, and yen, and also had mixed changes against the offshore and onshore RMB [11]. - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 5.43% to $3,974.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.75% to $3,986.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [11]. Policy and Trade Issues - China has strengthened export controls on some rare earth-related items and technologies. These controls are mainly targeted at military use items, and civilian and compliant items will be permitted. The policy has a reasonable transition period, and the government will promote compliant trade [12]. - The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China in response to China's rare earth export controls. China's Ministry of Commerce has responded, stating that China is not afraid of a tariff war. Whether the US will actually impose the tariff is uncertain, and if it does, China may retaliate. The impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that in early April [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese government has expressed its readiness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. but insists that the U.S. must cease its threats and discriminatory measures against China [3][4]. - China has reiterated its stance on the ongoing trade war, stating that it is prepared to respond to U.S. actions while remaining open to negotiations [4]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures on rare earth elements are described as legitimate actions based on legal regulations aimed at enhancing its export control system [3]. - The Chinese government assures that its export controls do not equate to a ban, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [3]. Group 3: Bilateral Communication - China has communicated its position to the U.S. through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms prior to the implementation of its measures [3]. - The Chinese government highlights the importance of maintaining communication within the framework of U.S.-China economic consultations to address mutual concerns and manage differences effectively [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market's short - term trend is uncertain, with high - level volatility likely to increase this month. In the medium term, despite external trade frictions, the Chinese economy will continue to develop, and the bull market will resume after the market's risk appetite recovers. [17][18] - For different commodities, their trends are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. Traders should adjust their strategies according to specific commodity characteristics and market conditions. [10][11][12][14][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The implementation of special port dues for US ships starts today. Ships meeting certain conditions related to the US need to pay the fee, with some exemptions. [6] - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, with consecutive 4 - month year - on - year double - growth. The third - quarter trade also had a 6% year - on - year increase. However, China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a third - consecutive - month decline. [6] - China's three major telecom operators have obtained approval for eSIM mobile phone service commercial trials, and Apple will launch the iPhone Air in China. [7] - The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize is awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. [7] - Regarding Pakistan - US rare - earth cooperation and the Dutch government's restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturers, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded, emphasizing market principles and the protection of legitimate rights. [7] - Since October 13, 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, with a 0.06 - yuan per - liter reduction for 92 - octane, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - octane diesel. It is expected that the next round of refined - oil price adjustments may be downward. [8] 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 13 closed at 7902 yuan/ton, up 1.10%, breaking through the shock range. In the short term, it may continue to be strong, but there is pressure around 7950 yuan and support at 7800 yuan. [10] - Sugar futures on October 13 closed at 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.85%, weaker than expected. After breaking the 5500 - yuan support, there is limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before going long. [10] - Corn futures on October 13 closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 1.83%, with supply pressure from new - season corn in the Northeast and cautious demand. It is recommended to go short, focusing on the 2080 - 2090 - yuan support. [10] - The pig market is under pressure due to post - holiday supply release and consumption decline, with prices continuing to fall and the market in a weak and bottom - exploring state. [10] - Egg prices are expected to be low - volatile, with some regions continuing to be weak. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contract and conduct inter - month reverse spreads. [12] - Cotton futures on October 10 closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, with supply pressure from new cotton and weak demand. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with pressure at 13400 yuan and support at 13200 yuan. [12] 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with good low - price sales. The daily output is expected to decline briefly and then recover. Attention should be paid to downstream follow - up and Indian tenders. [12] - For caustic soda, the market supply is relatively abundant, and the 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level. [12] - For coking coal and coke, the port prices are stable, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [12][14] 2.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions, prices have dropped significantly, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted. [14] - For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite. [14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot market has weak transactions, and the prices are under pressure in mid - month. The short - term downward space is limited, and they are expected to be weakly volatile. [14] - For ferroalloys, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro and Sino - US tariff frictions on the financial market. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to the support at 71800 yuan. [16] 2.4 Options and Finance - On October 13, the three major A - share indexes corrected, with more falling stocks. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion. For stock - index futures and options, the basis and implied volatility changed. Trend investors can consider buying bullish call spreads, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles. [16] - The A - share market is in high - level shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips and reduce positions when the market sentiment is high. [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on trade relations with the U.S., asserting that China is open to dialogue but will respond firmly to threats and restrictions [2][3] - China has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threats of imposing 100% tariffs and highlighted that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to safeguard national security [2] - The article mentions that China has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms before their implementation [2] Group 2 - The article reiterates that both countries have significant common interests and potential for cooperation, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through respectful and equal negotiations [3] - It criticizes the U.S. for its inconsistent approach of seeking dialogue while simultaneously threatening new restrictions, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and engage sincerely in discussions [3] - The article calls for maintaining the achievements of previous negotiations and emphasizes the importance of managing differences through dialogue to promote a healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China asserts that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on legal regulations aimed at improving its export control system [1]. - The Chinese government maintains that its export controls do not equate to a ban, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [1]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese side expresses a consistent stance on the trade conflict, indicating readiness to engage in both dialogue and confrontation, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the outcomes of previous discussions [2].