Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - Trump's tariff policy raised the average US tariff rate to 27%, exceeding levels not seen since the 1930s, significantly increasing global recession risks[11] - The uncertainty index for US economic policy rose from 504 in March to 566 in April, indicating heightened economic and trade uncertainty[22] - The probability of a US recession increased from 39% at the end of March to 63% by the end of April, reflecting growing recession concerns[22] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In April, China's exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by "export grabbing" strategies[28] - The manufacturing PMI production index remained near the neutral line at 49.8%, indicating stable production levels despite external pressures[34] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, fell to 52.2, the lowest since 2022, reflecting rising inflation expectations[22] Group 3: Policy Responses - A series of financial policies were announced in early May, including a surprise reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[45] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely implementation of incremental reserve policies in response to changing economic conditions[42] - The issuance of special government bonds was accelerated, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds earlier than in 2024, aimed at supporting economic stability[42]

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in liquidity due to external risk expectations and strong policy support for medium to long-term capital inflow [1] - The performance of A-shares is expected to improve as financing may stop its outflow process, creating new opportunities for inflow when new themes emerge [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A-shares is expected to decline compared to Q4 2024, while the net profit growth rate is expected to turn positive, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower but experienced upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points [2] - The focus of policies has shifted towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on the implementation of fiscal policies and consumption stimulus measures [2] - The central bank has signaled easing, and the increase in financing balance is expected to support market liquidity, with ETF funds continuing to flow in [2] Group 3 - The three major indices collectively rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [3] - A series of financial policies were released, signaling the start of new incremental policies aimed at enhancing economic resilience and stability [3] - More incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly in fiscal policy, domestic demand expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]

以增量政策下好先手棋 以自身韧性应对外部风高浪急 ■记者观察 稳企业。全球最大银行市场、第二大资本市场和第二大债券市场，将为科技型企业发展提供资金"后 盾"。债券市场"科技板"横空出世，为科技创新提供高效、便捷、低成本的增量资金；深化科创板、创 业板改革政策措施出台在即；信贷支持科技创新的专项机制蓄势待发，金融资产投资公司批设"开闸"， 将加大对科创企业的投资力度…… 面对关税冲击，外贸企业在危机中觅新机，以"广交世界"抵御外围"海啸"，金融政策将助力外贸行业筑 起"堤坝"。银行业保险业护航外贸发展系列政策措施将制定实施，对外贸企业将应贷尽贷、应续尽续； 受关税政策影响较大的上市公司，将在股权质押、再融资、募集资金使用等方面获得更高的监管包容 度。 稳预期。超常规政策"如约而至"，社会信心"如期充值"。作为重要的宏观调控工具，货币政策超预期、 力度大、工具多、落地快：降准方面，既针对大中型银行，也阶段性调降汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司 存款准备金率；降息方面，下调了政策利率和住房公积金贷款利率，并首次全面下调结构性货币政策工 具利率；结构性工具既有新工具创设，也有额度增加，还有价格优惠。超常规的政策组合，迎来了 ...

在这些支持性政策的推动下，该行预计对平均每日成交额(ADT)敏感度高的券商将受益(包括东方财富 (300059.SZ)、广发证券(01776)和中国银河(06881))。然而，相较于东方财富，该行更看好中国银河。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局及中证监会联合昨日举办记者 会，公布一系列即将推出的重要政策。虽然今次政策不如去年9月24日推出的政策组合般具有历史性意 义，但支持性措施有助于稳定房地产及中小企业，缓解关税对出口企业的冲击，短期内有效控制不良贷 款风险。对内银而言，资产质量改善及债务可持续性的提升将是关键利好，预计将推动估值上行，但仍 需关注净息差压力。 央行推降准减息等10招稳定市场。该行认为人民银行即将下调存款准备金率50个基点符合预期，但对下 调公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率10个基点感到意外。该行估算虽然下调存款准备金率50个基点可能会 使承保银行2025年的净息差/盈利率上升约0.7个基点/0.26%，但这不足以抵销下调10个基点的长期回购 利率对净利息收益率/盈利率的打击。 不过，花旗指，国家金融监督管理总局对房地产及中小企业的融资支持有助于稳定相关行业， ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

2025年5月7日，国家金融监督管理总局（下称"金融监管总局"）局长李云泽在国务院新闻办公室发布会 上表示，金融监管总局将按照党中央、国务院的要求，进一步增强抓落实的责任感、紧迫感和主动性， 加力加劲，推动既定政策落地见效。加快加强增量政策储备，不断完善应对预案，全力巩固经济回升向 好的基本面。 李云泽表示，金融监管总局近期将推出8项增量政策：一是加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列 融资制度，助力持续巩固房地产市场的稳定态势；二是进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，为市场 引入更多的增量资金；三是调整优化监管规则，进一步调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活 跃资本市场；四是尽快推出支持小微企业、民营企业融资一揽子政策，做深做实融资协调工作机制，助 力稳企业、稳经济；五是制定实施银行业保险业护航外贸发展系列政策措施，对受关税影响较大的市场 主体提供精准服务，全力帮扶稳定经营，拓展市场；六是修订出台并购贷款管理办法，促进产业加快转 型升级；七是将发起设立金融资产投资公司的主体，扩展至符合条件的全国性商业银行，加大对科创企 业的投资力度；八是制定科技保险高质量发展的意见，更好发挥风险分担和补偿作用，切实为 ...

Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]

早盘速递 2025/4/29 热点资讯 重点关注 原油、沪金、燃油、焦煤、PTA、沪铜 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.78% 贵金属, 29.74% 油脂油料, 12.55% 软商品, 2.87% 有色, 18.59% 煤焦钢矿, 13.50% 能源, 2.53% 化工, 12.50% 谷物, 2.03% 农副产品, 2.92% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 W ...