商业航天重点投资方向梳理 20251229 摘要 Q&A 最近上海航天板块的催化因素有哪些？对后市有何判断？ 过去一个月，上海航天板块呈现出中美共振态势。美股太阳能板块从 12 月初 开始启动猛烈行情，截至圣诞节假期，美股几家典型涉航企业取得大幅超额收 益。例如，承接美国导弹防御局订单的 Seadoo Space 股价从 12 月 1 日至 25 日上涨 215%，Rocket Lab 上涨 83%，Intuitive Machines 上涨 76%，Planet Labs 上涨超过 70%，Firefly Aerospace 涨幅超过 50%。 这 些企业的涨幅主要受到一系列事件的催化。12 月 18 日，美国总统特朗普签署 确保美国太空优势的行政命令，设定 2028 年重返月球、2030 年建月球前哨 站的规划，并提出吸引 500 亿美元商业投资。这为商业航天企业带来重要催化。 此外，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）局长表示，美国将在未来三年内重返月 商业航天带动光伏电池材料需求，钙钛矿电池因其特性成为理想材料。 巨安股份、天合光能等企业已布局，钙钛矿叠层空间电池单价远高于地 面组件，带来利润弹性。 民营火 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Commercial Aerospace - The domestic commercial aerospace industry is experiencing rapid capitalization, with several companies initiating IPO preparations, potentially accelerating listings to Q2 and Q3 of 2026 [1][5] - Reusable rocket technology is deemed crucial for the development of domestic commercial aerospace, with companies like Interstellar Glory and CAS Space planning their maiden flights and attempting first-stage recovery [1][6] - The domestic market is integrating market-oriented approaches with national systems to catch up with international standards, aiming to achieve global leadership in reusable technology [1][8] Key Developments and Predictions - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has introduced favorable listing standards for high-quality commercial aerospace companies, particularly those utilizing reusable rocket technology, requiring a minimum market value of 4 billion [2] - SpaceX's internal valuation is reported at $800 billion, with Ark Invest predicting a post-IPO market cap of $2.5 trillion, driven by expectations from Starlink and Starship [1][7] - Major satellite constellation projects, GW and Qianfan, are advancing rapidly, with Qianfan aiming to deploy 15,000 satellites by 2030 and GW planning at least 1,300 launches by 2030 [1][9] Technological Impact and Challenges - The success of reusable rocket technology is expected to significantly lower launch costs, thereby increasing market demand and frequency of commercial space missions [12] - The complexity and risks associated with technological innovation necessitate a degree of tolerance for potential failures during initial attempts at recovery [6] - Security challenges are emerging with the increasing intelligence of satellite payloads, necessitating enhanced management and protection measures [17] Infrastructure and Market Dynamics - The domestic capacity for satellite manufacturing has exceeded 3,000 units, supported by multiple state-owned and private enterprises [16] - Infrastructure developments include the establishment of commercial launch sites and demand-side investments in specialized networks, enhancing the overall commercial aerospace ecosystem [18] Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Aerospace Electronics, Fudan Microelectronics, China Satellite, and China Satcom are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and liquidity [26] - The domestic market for large aircraft and engine manufacturing is identified as a significant investment theme for 2026, with companies like AVIC Xi'an Aircraft and Aero Engine Corporation of China presenting good opportunities [4][22] - The focus on military-to-civilian transitions and military trade is expected to drive growth, with specific recommendations for quartz fiber leaders and key players in the aerospace sector [28][29] Conclusion - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements in reusable rockets and satellite constellations, with various investment opportunities emerging as companies prepare for IPOs and expand their operational capabilities [1][26][29]

太空光伏四问四答 20251229 摘要 太空光伏是航天活动的首选能源，太阳翼成本和质量占比高，低轨卫星 星座建设将快速增长光伏电池需求。中国和欧洲等国家也在迅速跟进巨 型卫星星座计划，展开激烈竞争，为未来卫星发射奠定基础。 AI 数据中心大规模部署对电力需求冲击巨大，太空数据中心利用低成本 太阳能和被动辐射冷却技术，实现全天候发电和低温冷却，且模块化部 署不受地球物理条件限制，太空算力发展依赖太空光伏。 太空发电是太空光伏应用的新场景，克服地面光伏发电的随机性、间歇 性和波动性。欧盟空间局的 Solar Race 计划和中国的逐日计划均基于 太空光伏产业的快速发展。 太空光伏技术路线主要包括晶硅电池、商业薄膜电池和钙钛矿薄膜电池。 砷化镓多节电池是当前性能最佳的太空光伏技术，但成本高。晶硅电池 成本下降且效率提升，有望重回主流。 钙钛矿太阳能板高效、轻质、低成本且易制成柔性结构，适用于 5 年左 右寿命的低轨卫星应用场景。钧达股份通过与上亿光电子战略合作积极 介入钙钛矿领域。 Q&A 为什么要发展太空光伏产业？ 太空已经成为各国战略博弈的新战场，美国在这一领域处于领先地位，尤其是 SpaceX 公司，其可回 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace market is projected to reach a scale of 1.5 trillion by 2025, with an accelerated launch schedule by the end of the year indicating a strong growth trajectory for 2026, including potential IPOs of major companies and the maturation of reusable technology, positioning commercial aerospace as a key investment theme [1][2] Key Companies and Investment Opportunities 1. Changjiang Communication - Holds a 15% stake in Changfei Optical Fiber, corresponding to a market value of approximately 15 billion, currently in a state of market value inversion [6] - Deeply tied to Shanghai Yanjin, expected to generate 1-1.5 billion in new optical station construction revenue from overseas expansion in 2026 [6] - Established a satellite team to develop baseband and communication data transmission equipment, and won a project for vehicle-mounted terminals for emergency departments, with a market potential of approximately 6-10 billion nationwide [6] 2. Aerospace Intelligent Equipment - Affiliated with the Fifth Academy of Aerospace, comparable in importance to China Satellite, focusing on Hall thrusters and attitude control systems, backed by 502 Institute, and is the sole supplier with a strong core positioning advantage [6] 3. Fudan Microelectronics - FPGA technology recognized by China Star Network, positioned well in the satellite sector with promising future prospects [6] 4. Xingtong Measurement and Control - A core subsidiary of Zhongke Xingtong, listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, integrating AI algorithms for aerospace simulation and situational awareness, planning to deploy nearly 200 satellites over five years, with the first two low-orbit satellites expected to launch in the first half of 2026 [8] 5. Other Notable Companies - **Yukede**: Becomes the only data center service provider for the Beijing Social Science Committee-led space data center innovation consortium, providing computing infrastructure and operational services [9] - **Xinwei Communication**: Strong prospects in commercial aerospace, collaborating with Starlink and Amazon's Project Cooper, with revenues from Starlink reaching several hundred million this year [11] Industry Trends and Challenges - The commercial aerospace sector currently faces a talent supply shortage, with existing companies in the core supply chain maintaining a first-mover advantage. New entrants face challenges such as satellite verification and a lack of skilled personnel [9] - The demand for satellite launches is expected to rise rapidly, with a total of 20,000 satellites needed by 2025, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [9] Additional Insights - The integration of AI in aerospace applications is expected to enhance operational capabilities and situational awareness, indicating a trend towards more advanced technological solutions in the industry [8] - The collaboration between companies like Jun Da and Youyi Optical is crucial for meeting stringent space application requirements and validating materials for aerospace use [13]

上周（12月22日~12月28日），权益市场带动公募FOF重现高胜率投资景象，特别是权益类FOF当中，极少出现单周业绩为负的产品，多只FOF单周业绩超 过3%。 从A股表现来看，上周市场稳步上涨。宽基指数方面，上证指数报收3963.68点，上涨1.88%；深证成指报收13603.89点，上涨3.53%；创业板指报收3243.88 点，上涨3.90%。板块方面，有色金属、国防军工、电力设备板块涨幅居前。 易方达优势回报A单周业绩达到4.26%，是上周业绩最好的一只FOF。从三季报公布的重仓基金来看，易方达信息产业C、易方达战略新兴产业C以及易方达 信息行业精选C业绩突出，近一周业绩均在5%以上。 此外，国泰行业轮动A上周也取得4.20%的收益率。从该基金三季报公布的持仓来看，广发国证新能源车电池ETF、工银国证新能源车电池ETF、易方达国证 新能源电池ETF等业绩突出，近一周业绩都在6%以上。 | 债券型FOF | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | | | 平安盈轩90天持有A | 0.386 | | | 平安盈福6个月持有A | 0.315 | | | 平安元亨 ...

开源证券表示，商业火箭企业科创板IPO标准发布表明国家对商业航天领域的重点支持，资本加持将加 速产业发展。火箭产业链受益于航天动力、西部材料等企业的技术积累；卫星产业链及太空算力领域， 中科星图、航天宏图等企业凭借数据处理能力优势将获得发展机遇。商业航天产业链整体受益于政策支 持与技术进步，产业前景广阔。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 12月29日，航天ETF（159267）尾盘突然拉升，最后一分钟成交量突然放大，超2万手。截至当日收 盘，该ETF涨5.15%。该ETF成分股中，商业航天概念龙头中国卫星尾盘封涨停，走出4连板，创出历史 新高，总市值突破1000亿。此外，神剑股份8连板，大业股份、鲁信创投4连板，泰尔股份3连板，人气 股航天发展再度走出2连板，参股蓝箭航天的金风科技3天2板。 消息面上，据央广网，12月26日晚间，上交所公布《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号 ——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》（以下简称《指引》），支持正处于大规模商业化关键 时期的商业火箭企业，适用第五套上市标准登陆科创板。科创板"1+6"改革举措又一项成果重磅落地。 中邮证券表示，商业航天领域正迎来发展机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace in China marks a significant step towards promoting high-quality development in the industry, with the entire supply chain expected to benefit from this initiative [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China National Space Administration has set up a Commercial Aerospace Department, indicating a move towards specialized regulation in the commercial aerospace sector [2]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has released guidelines to facilitate the listing of commercial rocket companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which is expected to accelerate the IPO process for these companies [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - China's reusable rocket technology is nearing a breakthrough, with ongoing competition between state-owned and private enterprises [4]. - Recent launches, such as the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12 rockets, have provided critical data for future missions, despite some challenges in achieving successful recovery of rocket stages [4]. Group 3: 3D Printing in Aerospace - The aerospace sector's stringent requirements for component strength, lightweight design, and complex structures align well with the capabilities of 3D printing, which is anticipated to reshape the industry [5]. - Companies like Tianbing Technology and Star River Power are utilizing 3D printing to significantly reduce production costs and time for rocket engines, achieving reductions of 40%-50% in both cost and weight [6].

Market Overview - The market has shown steady growth this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3963.68 points, up 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13603.89 points, up 3.53%, and the ChiNext Index at 3243.88 points, up 3.90% [3] Sector Performance - **Metals Sector (+6.43%)**: Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driving significant gains in the metals sector. COMEX gold futures surpassed $4510, with an increase of over 1%. COMEX silver futures rose over 4%, peaking at $71.79 per ounce, marking the first time silver has crossed the $70 per ounce threshold. Platinum and palladium futures surged by 10% and 7%, respectively. Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 71%, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979, while silver prices have risen approximately 147% [4] - **Defense and Aerospace Sector (+6.00%)**: The commercial aerospace sector in China is reducing launch costs through reusable rockets, large-scale satellite manufacturing, and increased launch frequency. This is expected to lead to a rapid decline in launch costs, transitioning commercial aerospace from technology validation to market expansion. Additionally, space computing is emerging as a promising application area due to its low energy consumption and efficient data transmission capabilities [4] - **Power Equipment Sector (+5.37%)**: There is a trend of price increases across the supply chain, with end-users beginning to accept higher-priced components. The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "de-involution," with two specific routes: "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" and "new high-quality capacity being steadily introduced." The lithium hexafluorophosphate price remains high, with long-term pricing shifting to monthly negotiations, indicating tight supply and demand conditions [5] Macro and Regulatory Developments - The internet platform pricing is facing strong regulation, with three departments issuing the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules," effective from April 10, 2026. The People's Bank of China has announced a one-time credit repair policy [5] - **Overseas Economic Data**: The U.S. GDP for Q3 showed a significant annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.3%. The offshore RMB has strengthened, surpassing the 7.0 mark against the USD, with the onshore RMB also nearing this threshold [5] Focus Areas - Key sectors to monitor include AI and technology, domestic demand-related sectors, and "de-involution" related sectors [6] - Ongoing tracking of real estate, fiscal, consumption data, price index data, overseas economic data, and changes in U.S.-China tariff policies is recommended [6]

（记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司射频和微波产品有可用于太空算力？ 新劲刚（300629.SZ）12月29日在投资者互动平台表示，目前，公司射频和微波产品主要应用于数据链 及通信相关领域，暂未用于太空算力上。 ...

机构对商业航天板块持战略看多态度，认为 2026 年 A 股龙头标的风险 收益比更高，尤其看好中科星图、海格通信和航天电子。 国内政策利好频出，上交所明确商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标 准，加速商业航天产业发展，引发一二级市场广泛关注。 SpaceX 计划以 1.5 万亿美元估值 IPO，以及国内可回收商用运载火箭 发射成功，从不同层面打开行业远期空间，太空算力成为估值重要因素。 太空商业化将显著提升火箭运力和卫星制造数量，大幅扩大产业市场空 间，国内商业航天企业市场空间全面打开。 海外太空数据中心发展有两条路线：一是亚马逊和 Starlink 建设太空数 据中心作为地面延伸，二是 SpaceX 通过低轨卫星互联网实现通信计算 融合。 国内商业航天发展分三阶段：政府机要需求建设低轨宽带卫星星座、天 地结合系统实现商业自洽、解决工程问题降低火箭运营成本实现太空算 力产业安全。 投资者应关注 SpaceX 的 IPO 进程（预计最早 2026 年 3 月）和蓝箭航 天等企业在深交所第五套标准下的 IPO 节奏提速，以及 2026 年第二季 度首个商业航天企业 IPO。 商业航天后市研判及重点方向梳理 2025 ...