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外资LP正视“东升西落”
FOFWEEKLY· 2025-05-06 09:58
作者丨Eyan 本期推荐阅读5分钟 本期导读: 技术突破和政策红利正共同推动外资LP对中国市场的"再认识"。 在全球经济格局深刻调整的当下,"东升西落"不再仅是中国内部的战略共识,而是逐渐成为全球资 本市场的现实写照。美国对中国发起的关税战不仅未能遏制中国的发展,反而在全球范围内引发了 对美国经济政策的不信任。与此同时,美债收益率的飙升和美股高估值的持续,使得美元资产的信 用风险日益凸显。在这样的背景下,中国以其稳健的经济增长和日益完善的投资环境,成为全球资 本寻求避风港的新选择。外资LP们开始悄然布局中国市场,寻找新的增长点和投资机会。这一趋 势不仅体现了全球资本对中国市场的重新评估,也标志着中国在全球资本流动中的角色正在发生深 刻变化。 外资重新"认识"中国 今年4月以来美国对全球,尤其是中国,发起的关税战引发了广泛的国际抵制。曾被视为"避风 港"的美元资产,如今正面临信任危机。美债收益率飙升、美股高估值泡沫、以及对华关税战的持 续升级,使得投资者开始重新审视美国资产的安全性。与此同时,中国市场以其稳定的政策环境和 科技创新能力,逐渐成为全球资本的避风港。 美国国债市场一直被视为全球最安全的投资标的。然而 ...
太湖双子星:常州与湖州,为何经济差距如此之大?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 09:29
Economic Comparison - Changzhou's GDP is more than 2.5 times that of Huzhou, highlighting a significant economic disparity between the two cities [1][4][6] - Changzhou has become a hub for high-end manufacturing, particularly in new energy and materials, with a notable presence in the electric vehicle sector, contributing to one-third of the national power battery output [4][6] - Huzhou, on the other hand, is primarily known for its labor-intensive industries, such as children's clothing, which, despite high production volumes, contribute less to GDP growth compared to Changzhou's advanced manufacturing [6][4] Transportation and Location - Changzhou's strategic location in the Yangtze River Delta, with excellent transportation links to major cities like Shanghai and Nanjing, has made it an attractive destination for industrial relocation [1][3] - Huzhou's geographical position is less favorable, being isolated from the core areas of the Yangtze River Delta, which has hindered its industrial development and access to transportation until the opening of the Huzhou-Suzhou high-speed railway in 2024 [3][1] Population Dynamics - Historical population losses during the Taiping Rebellion significantly impacted both cities, but Changzhou has recovered to a population of 5.38 million by 2008, while Huzhou only reached 3.4 million by 2022 [7][9] - The larger population in Changzhou has created a more substantial consumer market and labor force, attracting more investments compared to Huzhou, which faces a labor shortage and outmigration of young people [9][7] Policy and Government Support - Changzhou benefits from being a key city in Jiangsu Province, receiving substantial policy support and resources, particularly in innovation and research [10][11] - Huzhou, in contrast, has a weaker presence in Zhejiang Province, facing competition for resources from nearby cities like Hangzhou and Ningbo, resulting in limited policy advantages [11][10] Historical and Cultural Context - Changzhou has a long-standing commercial tradition dating back to the Ming and Qing dynasties, fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial environment that has thrived post-reform [10][11] - Huzhou's historical focus on agriculture and traditional crafts has limited its commercial transformation capabilities, leading to a less dynamic business environment compared to Changzhou [10][11] Future Prospects - Huzhou has opportunities for growth with the new high-speed railway and the development of the South Taihu New Area, aiming to replicate Changzhou's success in high-tech industries [11][10] - The ecological advantages of Huzhou, with a significant portion of quality water sources, may attract high-end talent and investment, contrasting with Changzhou's resource constraints [11][10]
【广发宏观王丹】哪些行业景气度逆势上行:4月PMI简析
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-30 13:31
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 4月制造业PMI环比下行1.5个点至49.0,环比降幅明显大于2014年以来季节性均值的0.8个点。中观景气面同步放缓,位于扩张区间的行业个数由前值 的8个减少至5个。前期公布的EPMI、BCI指数和PMI指向一致,可以相互印证,显示外需的影响在初步形成。 第二, 从分项指标看,从出口订单向生产、价格、就业的传递链条较为清晰。(1)出口订单环比下行4.3个点至44.7,绝对景气水平为过去10年仅好于2020 和2022年4月的偏低水平,显示了关税落地对外需的影响;(2)企业生产量指标4月环比下降2.8个点,且代表企业未来生产意愿的采购指标环比下降5.5个 点,是所有分项指标中环比降幅最大的,显示了企业在外部冲击下主动调整当期和未来生产的表现;(3)购进和出厂价格环比分别下降2.8和3.1个点,尤其是 出厂价格环比降幅创下过去8个月新低,3月PPI环比已经下降0.4个点的背景下,输入性价格下跌过程尚未结束;(4)雇员指标环比下降0.3个点,这一指标已 经环比连续2个月放缓。 第三, 哪些行业相对来说受影响较 ...
格力电器(000651):高股息锚定长期价值 25Q1盈利强化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:38
24 及25Q1 毛销差保持积极态势 公司24 年毛利率为29.4%,同比基本持平(虽然各项业务毛利率下降,但由于低毛利率的其他业务收入 占比下降,整体毛利率相对稳定)。而25Q1毛利率同比-1.2pct。24 年公司期间费用率同比-1.77pct,主 要由于销售费用率同比-2pct(渠道营销模式变化),而25Q1 期间费用同比-2.5pct,公司毛销差保持积 极态势。 内销高占比,且高股息锚定长期价值 考虑到其他业务拖累,我们下调了收入预期,考虑到准则调整及线上均价波动,我们下调了毛利率预 期,预测25-27 年EPS 为6.23/6.71/7.12 元(25-26年分别下调10%/14%),截至2025/4/25,Wind 可比公 司25 年一致预期平均PE 为11x,考虑到公司外销占比低(24 年仅15%)、高股息防御属性强,关税波动背 景下具备优势,但市场仍存多元业务拓展偏慢担忧,给予公司25 年9xPE 估值,对应目标价56.07 元 (前值58.74 元,基于25 年8.5xPE)。 公司披露2024 年报及25 一季报:2024 年实现总营收1900.38 亿元,同比-7.31%,归母净利321 ...
海优汇商城以技术 + 政策双轮驱动的全球化生态护城河
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 01:45
Core Viewpoint - The rise of Haiyouhui Mall represents a quiet revolution in cross-border trade, leveraging global resource integration and policy benefits to reshape the underlying logic of global trade through a dual approach of "supply chain deepening + technological empowerment" [1][8]. Group 1: Policy and Market Strategy - The dynamic adjustment of tariff policies signifies a reshuffling of global resource allocation, with Haiyouhui Mall's founding team identifying policy opportunities early on, particularly through the "pilot" policy matrix formed by 165 cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in China [3]. - Haiyouhui Mall benefits from the zero-tariff policy on 90% of goods among RCEP member countries, establishing overseas procurement centers in Vietnam and Thailand to directly connect with original manufacturers [3]. - For instance, the cost of Thai latex pillows is reduced by 40% compared to traditional trade through a "factory direct procurement + ASEAN tariff reduction" model, alongside 72-hour cross-border logistics to domestic bonded warehouses [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Quality Control - Haiyouhui Mall has established operational centers in key cross-border trade hubs such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Guangzhou, creating a multi-dimensional supply chain network characterized by "global selection - bonded warehousing - intelligent distribution" [5]. - A "three-dimensional review system" is implemented to ensure supply chain quality, requiring overseas brands to provide international certifications like FDA and CE, while domestic partners must be among the top 20% of merchants on platforms like Tmall International and JD International, with annual sales of no less than 50 million RMB [5]. - Only first or second-level authorized agents are permitted, eliminating risks associated with multi-layer distribution, and monthly evaluations of brand sales data, complaint rates, and return rates are conducted to maintain high activity levels in the platform's brand library [6]. Group 3: Innovation and Future Outlook - Unlike traditional cross-border e-commerce that relies on traffic thinking, Haiyouhui Mall builds a "customized cross-border e-commerce operating system," marking a transition from "policy arbitrage" to "value creation" at the intersection of tariff policy and technological revolution [8]. - The practices of Haiyouhui Mall demonstrate that the core of global competition lies in accurately decoding policy benefits, deeply integrating supply chain resources, and continuously innovating technological tools [8]. - As traditional trade grapples with tariff rates and traffic thinking reaches a bottleneck, Haiyouhui Mall is innovating its cost structure through model innovation, establishing a new ecosystem for global trade driven by "supply chain + technology" [8].
政企双补加持!尚品宅配升级“买一送一”惠民举措 兰西雅力荐门墙柜一体化新品
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-04-21 09:55
Group 1 - The core event was the launch of the "Huanxin" theme activity in Xi'an by Shangpin Home, promoting home improvement and consumer incentives through national policies and special offers [1][3][29] - The company introduced integrated new products for doors, walls, and cabinets, along with a "buy one get one free" policy, addressing consumer demand for high-quality and cost-effective custom home solutions [5][19][25] - The event featured a collaboration with actress Lan Xiya, who served as a special experience officer, enhancing the brand's engagement with consumers through interactive experiences [7][11][29] Group 2 - Shangpin Home's general manager emphasized the company's commitment to supporting families in achieving their home improvement dreams through government subsidies and promotional measures [3][25] - The company has upgraded its local services, including a new 3000㎡ warehouse in Xi'an, which has reduced average delivery times from 15 days to as fast as 7 days [7][19] - The "buy one get one free" initiative allows consumers to receive additional furniture with their cabinet purchases, further incentivized by a 15% government subsidy, making home improvement more affordable [25][29] Group 3 - The new integrated product line aims to redefine home aesthetics and quality, addressing consumer preferences for cohesive design and functionality [19][22] - The event also highlighted the company's ongoing commitment to social responsibility through its "Love School" initiative, which has supported rural education for over a decade [17] - The marketing strategy combines product offerings, celebrity endorsements, and government policies to create a comprehensive consumer experience, driving growth in the home improvement market [29][30]
【期货热点追踪】特朗普签署行政令力挺煤炭行业,政策红利能否逆转天然气与可再生能源碾压态势?
news flash· 2025-04-08 15:53
期货热点追踪 特朗普签署行政令力挺煤炭行业,政策红利能否逆转天然气与可再生能源碾压态势? 相关链接 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的3月经济
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-02 13:48
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现,上游高炉、焦化开工率同比涨幅扩大。截至3月第四周,全国247家高 炉开工率(期末值,下同)同比增长5.6pct;焦化企业开工率同比增长5.6pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长 16.3pct;PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落4.6pct;山东地炼开工率同比回落3.6pct,PVC开工率同比回落 0.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比增长2.6pct,全钢胎开工率同比回落1.4pct。 第二, 燃煤发电量和耗煤量延续了前两个月增速中枢。中电联统计截至3月27日,纳入统计的发电集团燃煤 电厂当月累计发电量同比下降6.7%;燃煤电厂耗煤量月同比下降6.6%。这与前期数据相当,统计局数据1-2 月火电发电量同比-5.8%。不过需要指出的是:(1)火电是整体的一部分,1-2月发电量同比-1.3%; (2)发电量是统计规模以上发电企业,用电量统计整体,1-2月用电量同比1.3%;(3)1-2月用电量包含 高基数(去年同期同比11.0%)和工作日减少影响;(4)从3月PMI数据看,高耗能企业景气环比下行 ...
赴美上市开启"快车道"!如何抓住政策红利与市场机遇?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 09:49
赴美上市开启"快车道"!如何抓住政策红利与市场机遇? 当全球资本市场的目光重新聚焦中概股,一场潜移默化的政策变革正在重塑中企赴美上市的版图。证监会2025年初春发出的强烈信号,不仅为企业铺设了 通往华尔街的"快车道",更在融资生态层面开启战略级创新。 壹、政策速递 3月11日证监会党委会议释放的三大核心突破,直击企业跨境上市的长期痛点,为优质企业铺设了更为顺畅的国际化融资通道。 证监会借鉴"海关通关"理念,根据行业特性、企业资质和风险等级设立"红/黄/绿"三色通道。 其中,绿色通道适用于科技创新属性强、合规记录良好的企业,备案材料可实现"即报即审",周期压缩40%以上; 黄色通道针对存在部分合规瑕疵但业务实质优良的企业,实行重点问题靶向问询; 红色通道则适用于涉及敏感数据或特殊监管要求的企业,需进行多部门联席审查。 允许上市后灵活采用SPAC合并、定向可转债等18种创新融资工具,战略投资者引入流程缩短至15个工作日。 推出"沙盒监管"试点,允许企业在特定领域(如数据安全)进行合规压力测试。 贰、效率革命 允许优质中概股每季度启动小额增发,单次融资规模不超过市值的5%时可豁免部分审查。 明确PE/VC退出路径, ...
【广发宏观王丹】3月EPMI显著上行
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-03-20 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].