期货热点追踪 美国对铜进口的调查行动引爆铜市！贸易商疯狂套利，但COMEX溢价已回落至600美元，这一波行情 是否已接近尾声？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - European routes have high capacity in June, and the price of the 06 contract has risen to around $2600/FEU. As MSC has started to revise the European route prices for June, other shipping companies will likely follow suit. Attention should be paid to the final actual prices in June. The 08 contract, being in the traditional peak season, still has price increase expectations, leading to a strong game between expectations and reality. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of May 20, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 118,206 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 166,866 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1451.20, 1249.00, 1772.20, 2387.90, 1482.10, and 1625.20 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Prices - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $3091/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $4069/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [5]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The weekly capacities in WEEK23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of over 20%. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while in May it was 243,400 TEU, showing a rapid recovery [2]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully control the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli Air Force attacked over 160 targets in the Gaza Strip in the past day [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In May, more than 10 ships on the US routes were transferred to European routes, increasing the supply - side pressure on European routes in May. Most shipping companies continuously revised down their prices in May. The price of the OA Alliance in May dropped to around $1700/FEU, the price of YML in the PA Alliance in May was $1500/FEU, and the price of Maersk in WEEK22 was over $1600/FEU [3].

Report Title - Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (May 20, 2025) [1] Core Content 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of thermal coal was -182.4, -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4 respectively, with 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads all at 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showed different changes. For example, the base price of INE crude oil on May 19 was -14.51, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1386 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) all had different values. For example, the base price of natural rubber on May 19 was -5 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month for iron ore, coke, coking coal; 5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month for rebar), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) all had different values. For example, the base price of rebar on May 19 was 111.0 [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the domestic base prices had different values. For example, the base price of copper on May 19 was 310 [21] London Market - **LME Premium, Shanghai - London Ratio, CIF, Domestic Spot, and Import Profit/Loss**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, on May 19, 2025, the LME premium, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss had different values. For example, the LME premium of copper was 15.52, and the import profit was 72.09 [27] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) all had different values. For example, the base price of soybeans on May 19 was -222 [35] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price and Cross - Period Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base prices had different values, and the cross - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) also had different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on May 19 was 33.95 [43]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for May 19, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base price of thermal coal showed fluctuations, starting from -171.4 yuan/ton on May 12 and reaching -187.4 yuan/ton on May 16. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil changed from -14.51 yuan/ton on May 13 to -8.53 yuan/ton on May 16. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt also fluctuated, from 0.1331 on May 12 to 0.1388 on May 16 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., the base prices showed different trends from May 12 - 16, 2025. For example, the base price of natural rubber changed from -375 yuan/ton on May 12 to 45 yuan/ton on May 16 [7] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products also varied. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 95 yuan/ton [7] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP also had different values on different dates from May 12 - 16, 2025 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations. For example, the base price of rebar changed from 158 yuan/ton on May 12 to 118 yuan/ton on May 16 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar and other black metals had different values. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 19 yuan/ton [12] - **Inter - commodity Ratios and Spreads**: The ratios such as screw/ore and spreads such as screw - hot rolled coil also changed during this period [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of domestic non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. showed different trends. For example, the base price of copper changed from 340 yuan/ton on May 12 to 690 yuan/ton on May 16 [20] London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts, Shanghai - London Ratios, etc.**: On May 16, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc were provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 31.45, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18 [26] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn showed fluctuations [35] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products had different values. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans was 33 yuan/ton [33] - **Inter - commodity Ratios and Spreads**: The ratios such as soybean/corn and spreads such as soybean meal - rapeseed meal also changed during this period [33] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the base price of CSI 300 changed from 37.61 on May 12 to 43.09 on May 16 [43] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different stock index futures had different values. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was -40.6 [43]

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【20 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 贸易商收货兴趣浓厚 铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-05-13，沪铜主力合约开于 78080元/吨，收于 78090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.22%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 77,930元/吨，收于 78,650 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.99%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日日内成交活跃度较高，早盘盘初低价可注册仓单货源被大量秒收，大型贸易商收货情绪浓厚， 采购情绪指数为3.18，较昨日上升0.13；因换月前持续贴水，部分持货商不愿低价出售，宁愿作为仓单交割，故销 售情绪指数较昨日降低0.02，录得3.25。进入主流交易时段，货源如铁峰、日本、韩国、中条山PC等成交积极，后 续均被接货方加价出售。进入第二交易时段，市场出货价格上抬至贴水30元/吨附近，好铜重现升水成交。湿法铜 仅少量mook货源贴水70元/吨附近，非注册货源贴水180至贴水120元/吨均有成交。 进入交割倒计时，昨日仓单增 量较少，但贸易商收货情绪抬升预计仓单量将逐渐增加。今日现货贴水或保持坚挺。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，美国消费者价格指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 14, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation through the analysis of basis, inter - period spread, and inter - variety spread. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On May 13, 2025, the basis was - 182.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous negative value trend in recent days [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil and fuel oil fluctuating in recent days [6]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc. are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of natural rubber in recent days [7]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being - 1045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 2309 yuan/ton on May 13, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with the basis of rebar showing an upward trend in recent days [12]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 69.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 4.31 on May 13, 2025 [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of copper in recent days [20]. - **Import and Export Data**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals are presented, with all non - ferrous metals showing import losses except lead [26]. - **London Market**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided, with the basis of soybeans showing a negative value in recent days [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans being 48 yuan/ton [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented, with the soybean/corn ratio being 1.77 on May 13, 2025 [34]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, with the basis of all indices showing positive values on May 13, 2025 [44]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, such as the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 being - 40.8 [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on May 12, 2025, presenting the basis, spreads, and other data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, helping investors understand market conditions. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed a continuous decline in the basis, reaching - 171.4 yuan/ton on May 9 [2]. - Spreads such as 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 during the period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 9 was - 35.58 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the ratio was 0.1369, and the basis was 33.60 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 9 was - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Spread data included information on different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemicals, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being - 1065 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - commodity spread data, like LLDPE - PVC being 2191 yuan/ton on May 9 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed changes. For example, the basis of rebar on May 9 was 128.0 yuan/ton [14]. - Spread data included different months for rebar (5 - 1, 10 - 1, 10 - 5) and other black metals (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) [14]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore being 4.34 on May 9 [14]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for domestic non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper on May 9 was 930 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals on May 9, 2025, included LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss. For example, the LME spread of copper was 49.19, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.28 [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, etc., showed changes. For example, the basis of soybean No. 1 on May 9 was - 213 yuan/ton [37]. - Spread data included different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various agricultural products, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No. 1 being 26 yuan/ton [35]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of soybean No. 1 to corn being 1.75 on May 9 [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 9 was 37.56 [45]. - Spread data for different months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for various stock index futures, such as the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 being - 33.2 [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Option: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - In April, domestic copper inventories decreased significantly due to a high premium in the Comex market, leading to a global inventory flow to the US, reduced domestic imports, increased domestic maintenance, and significant copper concentrate interference. However, high uncertainties in macro factors and domestic demand outlook caused copper prices to weaken at the end of April. In May, copper prices may remain in a volatile range of approximately 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,620 yuan/ton and closed at 77,330 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the day, due to the widening of the monthly spread, spot arbitrageurs actively sold goods at low prices. The Shanghai electrolytic copper shipment sentiment index was 3.07, and the procurement sentiment was 3.61, up 0.14 and 0.07 respectively from the previous day. The morning quotation for some copper types was at a premium of 220 - 280 yuan/ton, and the price decreased during the second trading session [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The UK and the US reached a trade agreement, retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel and aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK automobile imports. The US may take enforcement actions on imported services, and the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a divided vote, and Trump criticized Powell [3] - **Mine End**: JCHX Mining Management plans to acquire a 5% stake in CMH and gain control for a consideration of $10 million and a contingent consideration of $4.4 million or $15.4 million. After the transaction, it will hold 55% of CMH's shares through its subsidiary and lead the development of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine [3] - **Smelting and Import**: As of the end of 2024, Reko Diq's possible reserves include 7.3 million tons of copper and 13 million ounces of gold. Once fully operational, it is expected to produce 240,000 tons/year of copper and 297,000 ounces/year of gold in the first stage, and increase to 460,000 tons/year of copper and 520,000 ounces/year of gold in the second stage's first decade [4] - **Consumption**: In April 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1.0396 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.87% and a year-on-year increase of 19.34%. In May, the estimated output is 996,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%. The cumulative estimated output from January to May is 4.5265 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. The capacity utilization rate in April was 67.82%, up 6.41% month-on-month and 8.61% year-on-year [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 194,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on May 6 was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. Copper prices may remain volatile in May, ranging from 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Option**: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6]

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/30 | -151.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1 ...