Core Insights - The article discusses the recent clarification from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance regarding the continuation of the national subsidy program, which has been extended with an additional 138 billion yuan to stimulate consumer spending [1][3]. Group 1: Subsidy Program Details - The initial 300 billion yuan subsidy fund was quickly consumed, with over 150 billion yuan used by the end of May 2025, prompting urgent funding adjustments [3]. - The new round of subsidies will be distributed in two batches of 138 billion yuan, scheduled for July and October 2025 [3][4]. - The subsidy program will prioritize high-efficiency appliances and electronics, with specific incentives for energy-efficient products and a variety of new categories added [4]. Group 2: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to act quickly to secure subsidies, especially for high-demand items like air conditioners and electric vehicles, as funds are expected to deplete rapidly [6]. - The article provides specific instructions for accessing subsidies through the JD app, emphasizing the importance of early action due to limited availability [1][6]. - It highlights potential pitfalls for consumers, such as invalid invoices and the risk of price inflation, urging careful verification of purchase conditions [6]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the subsidy program is crucial for maintaining market stability and consumer confidence, especially in light of recent price drops exceeding 40% for certain products [3][4]. - The ongoing subsidy program is set to conclude by December 31, 2025, marking the end of this consumer support initiative [8]. - The urgency for consumers to participate in the subsidy program is emphasized, as the remaining funds are expected to be exhausted before the official end date [8].

淘宝闪购7月2日宣布启动规模高达500亿元的补贴计划，将在12个月直补消费者及商家共500亿，通过发 放大额红包、免单卡、官方补贴一口价商品等方式给消费者带来优惠、便捷的服务和体验，进一步激发 消费活力，同时上线店铺补贴、商品补贴、配送补贴、免佣减佣等措施，促进商家生意增长，以技术和 商业模式创新，构建高效协同的大消费平台，并以巨大流量反哺线下商业和服务业。上线两个月，淘宝 闪购联合饿了么日订单已突破6000万单。(第一财经) ...

对于正面临大额消费支出的盛帆员工来说，该项政策可谓雪中送炭。公共关系中心的马理成于上个月步 入婚姻殿堂，当他收到集团发放的1.5万元消费补贴时颇为感慨："本来压力很大的，消费补贴的到账让 我真切地感受到公司对我小家庭的关怀。" 发放消费补贴超过100万元，提供按揭支持达260万元，撬动消费超过600万元。以上各项亮眼数据，源 自于武汉盛帆集团的一项创新举措：针对员工推出消费补贴政策，将购房、买车、装修、结婚、子女教 育等全部纳入补贴范畴，最高补贴额度可达2万元。 消费补贴，堪称中国经济最近一年里最热门的关键词之一。今年1月8日，财政部、发改委宣布，为刺激 消费、拉动经济，2025年将实施史上力度最大的消费品补贴，而盛帆集团推出的具有企业特色的消费补 贴政策甚至比国补要更早一些。 情系员工，赋能消费，共担社会责任，消费补贴政策彰显了盛帆的责任和智慧。下半年，盛帆集团计划 继续发放1000万元按揭支持促消费，提升员工幸福感，助力社会迈向更美好的消费新时代。 转自：中华网生活 除了直接发放资金补贴外，集团还为员工的大额消费提供5-20万元的按揭支持。盛帆女篮总经理赵飞飞 一个月前结婚，筹备婚礼让他的积蓄所剩无几。面 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights two new trends in consumer behavior: the expansion of subsidies for mobile phones and home appliances, which has created a rotation effect compared to last year's policies, and a shift in macroeconomic policy focus from investment to consumption, with consumption's impact on economic growth potentially surpassing that of investment [2] - The estimated budget for the "trade-in" policy in 2024 is around 170 billion yuan, which is expected to increase retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point, with the most significant impacts seen in the home appliance, furniture, and automotive sectors [2] - For 2025, the central and local governments are expected to allocate approximately 330 billion yuan for "trade-in" subsidies, which could enhance retail sales growth by about 0.7 percentage points [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the proactive fiscal policy for 2025 will manifest in three dimensions: a budget deficit rate exceeding 3% for the first time, unprecedented government bond issuance, and a structural optimization where the central government takes on more debt to alleviate local fiscal pressures [3] - There are concerns regarding the potential cessation of national subsidies; however, it is suggested that fiscal support is likely to continue in a low inflation environment, with consumption expected to align closely with nominal GDP growth in the second half of the year [3] - The current consumer landscape is characterized by both the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption and a cautious consumer sentiment driven by economic expectations, raising questions about how to effectively boost consumer spending [3] Group 3 - Key issues affecting consumption include a low overall consumption rate among Chinese residents, a low proportion of service consumption in total spending, and significant regional disparities in consumption levels [3] - Recommendations for improving consumption include enhancing social security, optimizing supply systems, and implementing targeted measures for different income groups to address their specific constraints [3][4] - Suggestions for reform include increasing state-owned enterprise contributions to social security, raising urban and rural pension benefits, and expanding the "trade-in" policy to include service consumption to maximize its effectiveness [4]

Core Views - The report highlights that increased consumer subsidy policies across various regions are expected to stimulate market vitality and promote sustained terminal demand recovery [2][67] - The 618 shopping festival saw a 15% year-on-year increase in total e-commerce sales, indicating a shift towards a "long cycle + strong wave" promotional model [2][79] - Despite a temporary easing of global trade tensions, the textile manufacturing industry may still face impacts from potential future tariff escalations [2][99] Market Review - As of June 20, 2025, the textile and apparel industry has seen a slight increase of 0.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.36 percentage points [9] - The textile manufacturing sub-industry has decreased by 8.41%, while the accessories sub-industry has surged by 23.16%, significantly outperforming the market [10][9] Industry Overview - The report notes that consumer confidence has stabilized, with per capita GDP reaching 95,700 yuan in 2024, and a GDP growth rate of 5.0% [31][28] - Retail sales in May 2025 showed a significant increase, with total retail sales reaching 4,132.6 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [35] Mid-term Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer subsidy policies and the gradual recovery of terminal demand, particularly in the brand apparel and home textile sectors [71][67] - Leading companies in the home textile sector, such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, are expected to benefit from ongoing subsidy policies [72] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Chao Hong Ji, Huali Group, Xingye Technology, Mercury Home Textile, Luolai Life, Semir Apparel, and Baoxiniang, focusing on companies with strong brand and product capabilities [2] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the textile manufacturing sub-industry reported a revenue increase of 0.73% and a net profit increase of 11.38% [57] - Key companies like Chao Hong Ji and Huali Group have shown significant stock price increases of 151.80% and 12.34% respectively [16][66] Global Trade Dynamics - The report indicates that while the recent tariff conflicts have eased, the textile manufacturing industry remains vulnerable to future trade tensions [99] - Companies with high export ratios, such as Huali Group and Bailong Oriental, have established overseas production capacities to mitigate tariff impacts [99][102]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 1.42% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 and the Wind All A Index, which declined by 0.45% and 1.07% respectively [4] - The report suggests that strategic infrastructure projects in the central and western regions may become a focus for investors, particularly in areas like hydropower and major construction projects [4] - The real estate sector is nearing a clearing phase, leading to improved supply dynamics, which may benefit leading companies in the industry [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price drop in cement, with the national average price at 356.8 RMB/ton, down 3.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and 36.0 RMB/ton from the same period last year [4][20] - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last week but an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [25] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The average shipment rate for cement is 44.0%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week and 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The report anticipates that the cement industry will maintain a higher profit margin compared to last year due to improved supply-demand balance and ongoing policy support for domestic demand [12][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report indicates that the profitability of glass fiber remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [13] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance, benefiting leading companies with strong product structures [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions and diverse business growth [15] 3. Renovation and Building Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in the renovation sector [16] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from government subsidies are recommended for investment consideration [16]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 利率延续走强，利差表现分化 | 益 | | | | | ――利率债周报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： 王哲语 | | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 20 日 | | | | | 研 | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 统计区间：2025 年 6 月 13 日至 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 王哲语 | ⚫ | 重点事件点评 | | | | | 究 | 022-23839051 |  | 月社融主要靠债券类融资支撑，包括政府债券和企业债券融 金融数据：5 | | | | | | | | 资，企业中长贷仍较疲弱，与化债及融资需求不足因素有关。后续可关注 | | | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | | 5 月降息的滞后反馈效果。 | | | | | | |  | 经济数据：5 月生产和投资数据边际回落，"以旧换新"领域的社零数据 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article clarifies that the subsidy programs in Shanghai, including "national subsidies" and "municipal subsidies," are still active and available for consumers, contrary to rumors suggesting their termination [1] Group 1: Subsidy Availability - Consumers can still receive both "national" and "municipal" subsidies when purchasing eligible products in Shanghai [1] - Subsidies can be accessed through platforms like Yunshanfu, which allows users to claim coupons daily from 7:00 AM to 11:00 PM [1] - Online platforms such as JD.com continue to offer subsidies for orders placed in Shanghai, with automatic adjustments for municipal subsidies [1] Group 2: Subsidy Details - The article debunks claims of a "maximum subsidy of 40%," stating that most products actually receive subsidies of 15% to 20% [1] - Some products designed for the elderly may receive municipal subsidies as high as 30% [1] - There are no indications that the subsidy activities in Shanghai have been suspended, allowing consumers to confidently purchase eligible products through official channels [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that JD.com and Meituan are expected to experience the most significant downward adjustment in profitability for the second quarter of this year, primarily due to increased competition in the online trading platform sector [1] - The report highlights that multiple platforms are investing over 10 billion RMB in the food delivery and instant retail sectors to develop logistics fulfillment systems, enhance user awareness, and change consumption habits [1] - The article notes that the ongoing subsidies during the summer tea and coffee sales peak are likely to continue, further impacting profitability forecasts for the mentioned companies [1]

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]