Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market is transitioning from intensity control to total control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on total carbon emission control [2] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon trading market is expected to enhance their green and low-carbon transformation [2][3] - By 2027, priority will be given to implementing total quota control for industries with relatively stable carbon emissions [2] Group 2: Low-Carbon Investment and Technology Innovation - The carbon market has driven low-carbon investments and accelerated the innovation and promotion of green technologies [3] - The overall reduction cost in the power generation sector has decreased by approximately 35 billion yuan through carbon trading in the first two compliance cycles [3] - The expansion of the carbon market will encourage more enterprises to reduce carbon emissions through technological innovation and management efficiency improvements [3] Group 3: Voluntary Carbon Market Growth - The national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has entered a critical phase of rapid development, with 31 projects registered and a total transaction volume of 3.25 million tons of CCER [4][5] - The market has established a framework for management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, enhancing the integrity and standardization of voluntary reduction projects [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively soliciting opinions on various voluntary reduction project methodologies to support diverse project development [4][5] Group 4: Carbon Footprint Management System - The average carbon footprint factor for electricity in 2024 is reported to be 0.5777 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh, a 6.9% decrease from 2023 [6][7] - The establishment of a product carbon footprint management system is a key focus for deepening ecological civilization reforms [6] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to continue enhancing the research and publication of carbon footprint factors for electricity and other key products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global net-zero action is at a critical turning point, transitioning from framework construction to substantial implementation. Despite progress in multilateral mechanisms, issues such as funding gaps, technological barriers, geopolitical conflicts, and capacity shortcomings still hinder cooperation effectiveness. Strengthening climate finance, promoting technology sharing, building inclusive international frameworks, and enhancing governance capabilities are essential to ensure global emission reduction targets are met by 2030 and to lay a solid foundation for the 2050 net-zero vision [1][2]. Group 1: Progress in Global Net-Zero Actions - International cooperation on net-zero actions is deepening, with significant advancements in China-Europe and China-UK collaborations. Since 2015, Chinese financial institutions have issued over $12 billion in green and sustainable development bonds through the London Stock Exchange. In 2023, Bank of China issued a $600 million green bond, with funds allocated to green credit projects in the UK, France, and the Netherlands [3]. - Developing countries are enhancing climate cooperation, with China emerging as a major climate finance provider through initiatives like the Belt and Road and South-South cooperation. In 2020, China ranked 11th globally in climate funding, providing approximately $34.3 billion from 2013 to 2021 to support the transition to low-carbon economies [3]. - The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) aims to encourage financial institutions to commit to net-zero targets, providing a unified framework and tools for developing scientific transition plans. By the end of 2024, 122 member banks are expected to have voluntarily disclosed their net-zero targets [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Technical Cooperation and Standard Coordination - Efforts are underway to unify carbon market standards and enhance transparency. The World Sustainable Development Standards Organization (WSSO) is working on global energy and carbon neutrality standards, while the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group suggests establishing a universal carbon credit data model [4]. - The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) has released global benchmarks for climate-related disclosures, gaining recognition from the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) and being adopted in various regions [4]. - International cooperation through the World Bank and IMF is aimed at enhancing countries' capacities to address climate change, with multiple climate data platforms established to support scientific research and policy-making [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Issues in Global Net-Zero Actions - A significant funding gap exists, with developed countries' climate finance commitments under the Paris Agreement only being met in 2022, providing $115.9 billion, primarily in loans. The UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) anticipates a funding gap of $5.9 trillion for developing countries by 2030 [5]. - The distribution of climate financing is uneven, with regions like Africa receiving only 2% of global clean energy investments despite representing 20% of the population. This imbalance hampers the ability of developing countries to transition to clean energy [5]. - There is a credibility crisis regarding corporate net-zero commitments, with many lacking clarity and relying on low-quality carbon offset projects. Some fossil fuel companies use "net-zero" claims to mask expansion plans, raising concerns about the integrity of these commitments [5]. Group 4: Shortcomings in Awareness and Capacity Among Relevant Entities - Many net-zero targets are voluntary and lack enforceability, with surveys indicating that 28% of companies have no decarbonization plans for the next year, and 23% lack confidence in achieving 2050 targets [7]. - Local financial institutions often lack awareness and initiative regarding net-zero actions, focusing on profit growth rather than understanding national emission reduction goals [7]. - Policy transmission is obstructed, with banks having a stronger influence on small and medium enterprises, which are not major carbon emitters. This limits the effectiveness of banks in promoting net-zero actions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national carbon market price is under pressure and fluctuating. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [4][8] - Policies such as expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, implementing quota control and有偿分配, and strengthening the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market are expected to promote the development of the carbon market and the green - low - carbon transformation of industries [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a maximum of 59.30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The total trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 41,562,530 tons, with a total turnover of 1,988,434,330.99 yuan. From January 1 to October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 139,661,332 tons, and the turnover was 8,785,796,587.81 yuan. The carbon price has been declining since June and is now close to the 2021 opening price, more than 50% lower than the 2024 high [8] - According to the latest regulations, surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus allowances to 2025 by December 31, 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [8] - Fudan Carbon Index predicts the buying, selling, and middle prices of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and Chinese Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) for November and December 2025 [9] 3.2 Market News - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The high electricity consumption in the third quarter was due to high - temperature weather and economic recovery [10] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to accelerate the green - low - carbon transformation of energy, including developing non - fossil energy, promoting the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and promoting the green - low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions in key industries are expected to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - The "Opinions on Promoting Green - Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening Carbon Market Construction" aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon market, implement quota control and 有偿分配, tighten quotas, strengthen the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [10] 3.3 Data Summary - The report provides multiple data charts, including the EU carbon price, power generation equipment growth rate, power generation growth rate, photovoltaic installation volume, and coal power plant daily consumption, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by multiple factors, with steel prices in a downward cycle, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply side is expected to shrink [3][6]. - The five major steel products are in a state of inventory reduction, with increased production and apparent demand this week. The price of raw materials has increased, and it is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate within a range [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The 14th Five - Year Plan and other policies create a loose macro - environment, which is beneficial to the market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to prohibit the addition of new production capacity [3][15]. - **Supply Side**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased slightly this week. The main steel - producing areas such as Hebei and Shanxi have implemented crude steel production control plans, with a 30% production limit in Tangshan. The 1 - 9 month crude steel production in China has continued to decline year - on - year, and the iron water production is expected to continue to decrease [3][15]. - **Demand Side**: The peak season for steel terminal demand in October was lackluster, and it is expected to gradually shift to the off - season. Downstream new construction is mainly concentrated in the first quarter of next year, with slow current new construction. Mechanical steel use has increased, but the expected decline in household appliance steel use is significant, and automobile steel use remains stable [3][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.64% week - on - week to 1.51376 billion tons, but increased by 22.58% compared with the same period last year. The production increased by 1.15% week - on - week, and the apparent demand increased by 2.65% week - on - week to 9.164 million tons, reaching a six - month high [17]. Raw Material Market - The upstream coal mine safety inspection has led to an increase in coke prices. The 47 - port iron ore inventory has continued to accumulate, and the global iron ore shipment has reached a high level in the same period in recent years [3][22]. Price Forecast and Trading Strategy - **Rebar**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with a pressure level of 3230 and a support level of 3000. When approaching 3000, it is recommended to try to go long, and stop loss if it effectively breaks through [3][4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The pressure level is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and close attention should be paid to the support level of 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [4]. Important News - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, improve the monetary policy framework, and combat virtual currency operations and speculation [5]. - According to the production scheduling report of three major white goods, the total production scheduling in November 2025 decreased by 17.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [5]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will use the carbon market to promote green and low - carbon emissions reduction in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries [5]. - Henan Province has issued a plan to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level by the end of 2025 and optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "dual carbon" goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality are not only China's commitment to global climate challenges but also a crucial strategy for high-quality development and green low-carbon transformation. Over the past five years, China has established a preliminary policy system and market mechanism to support these goals, influencing both domestic and global carbon neutrality efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework and System Construction - Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" goals, China has built a comprehensive and coordinated policy system, characterized by clear top-level planning, diverse policy tools, and collaborative execution mechanisms [2][3]. - The "1+N" policy framework serves as the core of the carbon peak and neutrality system, with various departments and regions developing implementation plans across key sectors, creating a robust policy matrix [3]. Group 2: Green Finance Development - The establishment of green finance has accelerated, forming a matrix of policy tools that includes green credit, green bonds, carbon finance, and green insurance, among others [4][5]. - By 2024, China's green loan balance exceeded 36 trillion yuan, accounting for about 14% of total loans, while green bond issuance reached over 2.5 trillion yuan, positioning China as a global leader in these areas [13]. Group 3: Carbon Market Enhancement - The national carbon market has been continuously improved since its launch in 2021, with the coverage expanding to include high-emission industries such as steel and cement, making it the largest carbon market globally [8][9]. - The establishment of a voluntary carbon trading market is underway, aiming to enhance market participation and support green finance product innovation [9]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - China is actively deepening international cooperation in green finance, participating in global governance and contributing to the establishment of international standards [10][11]. - The introduction of mandatory environmental information disclosure regulations is a significant step towards aligning with international practices [11]. Group 5: Achievements and Challenges in Green Finance - Green finance has significantly contributed to resource allocation, fostering green momentum, and optimizing economic structure, but challenges remain in data disclosure, support for high-carbon industries, and the balance of financial products [12][17]. - The carbon emission data disclosure system is not yet robust, limiting the efficiency of resource allocation and the ability of financial institutions to assess carbon asset risks accurately [17]. Group 6: Future Directions for Green Finance - To further support the "dual carbon" goals, China needs to enhance the carbon information disclosure system, expand the application of carbon reduction support tools, and optimize the structure of green financial products [22][23][25]. - The carbon market requires reforms to improve price discovery and resource allocation functions, while green funding should be promoted internationally to support global green transitions [27][28].

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for November 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in November 2025 is 47.59 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 55.42 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 14.08% and the selling price index decreased by 8.59% [2] - The expected buying price for CCER in November 2025 is 59.67 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 68.17 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 63.92 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 13.52% and the selling price index decreased by 11.27% [2] GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2024 is 2.94 CNY/unit, while for distributed projects it is 2.26 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 1.31 CNY/unit; all show a decline compared to October 2025 [3] - For 2025, the expected price for centralized projects is 4.24 CNY/unit, for distributed projects it is 3.65 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 3.81 CNY/unit, with price differences among types of green certificates widening [3] October Market Performance - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 CNY/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 CNY/ton; the market showed a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in October was 172.14 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 148.64 million tons, indicating active trading as the compliance period approaches [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume rising by 7.91% and the UK market by 34.43%, while the Korean market saw a slight decline of 1.06% [5] - Price movements varied across global markets, with the EU carbon market price increasing by 1.64%, while the UK and Korean markets experienced declines of 0.82% and 3.30%, respectively [6]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that by 2035, the national carbon market is expected to cover over 80% of China's total carbon emissions [1][2] - China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is summarized as a "1+3+3" package, combining qualitative and quantitative targets [2] Group 1 - The new quantitative target includes a 7%-10% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions from peak levels by 2035, translating to a reduction of over 1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent [2] - The first "3" refers to three quantitative indicators for 2030, including non-fossil energy consumption reaching over 30% of total energy consumption, wind and solar power capacity increasing to over six times the 2020 level, and forest stock reaching over 24 billion cubic meters [2] - The second "3" introduces three qualitative indicators, such as making new energy vehicles the mainstream of new vehicle sales, covering major high-emission industries in the national carbon trading market, and establishing a climate-resilient society [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced a closing price of 53.71 yuan per ton on October 27, 2023, reflecting a decrease of 1.81% from the previous day [1][2] Trading Volume and Revenue - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 7,378,582 tons, with a total transaction value of 352,412,726.82 yuan [1] - The volume for the listed agreement trading was 1,050,009 tons, generating a transaction value of 50,889,715.79 yuan, while the bulk agreement trading accounted for 6,328,573 tons with a value of 301,523,011.03 yuan [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January 1 to October 27, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 126,134,514 tons, with a total transaction value of 8,146,384,178.52 yuan [1] - As of October 27, 2025, the cumulative trading volume since the inception of the national carbon market stands at 756,403,178 tons, with a total transaction value of 51,179,111,282.03 yuan [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference highlighted the transformative changes in global economic governance, emphasizing the significant role of carbon markets and carbon finance, particularly in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance - Global economic governance is at a critical "crossroads," necessitating a restructuring of the existing framework due to the misalignment between old systems and current developments [2]. - The share of developing economies in global GDP is projected to rise from 25% in 2000 to 45% by 2024, shifting governance discourse towards a more balanced North-South dynamic [2]. - The deepening of South-South cooperation among developing countries facilitates consensus in sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Carbon Market Development - The global carbon market has seen significant progress, with 38 carbon markets operational, covering 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions [4]. - China's carbon market, initiated in 2021, has expanded to include approximately 3,500 enterprises, with a total quota of 8 billion tons, representing 53.33% of the global carbon market quota [4]. - The release of China's first central-level document on carbon market construction and the announcement of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals provide a clear development roadmap for the carbon market [4]. Group 3: Future of Carbon Finance - The growth of the carbon market lays a solid foundation for carbon finance innovation, which still has significant untapped potential [5]. - Establishing differentiated internal motivation mechanisms for high-emission enterprises and linking carbon performance to financing costs for small and medium enterprises is essential [5]. - The integration of AI and big data in carbon finance can enhance efficiency and reduce costs, exemplified by innovative practices that significantly lower resource input for banks [5]. Group 4: Carbon Finance Ecosystem - A comprehensive carbon finance ecosystem requires support from third-party professional institutions, data technology companies, and green finance certification bodies [6]. - The establishment of standards and methods for evaluating green low-carbon performance is crucial for advancing the ecosystem [6]. Group 5: Interaction Between Carbon Finance and Green Innovation - Carbon finance must clarify its value orientation towards "zero carbon" to drive innovation and investment in low-carbon technologies [7]. - The interaction between carbon finance and green technology is vital for overcoming challenges faced by enterprises in pursuing environmental sustainability [8]. Group 6: Future Directions for Carbon Finance - The next decade will focus on the internationalization of carbon finance, with significant potential in developing countries [11]. - Key development priorities include creating a unified core carbon market, enhancing market vitality through financial innovation, and strengthening international cooperation [11]. - New financial tools, such as RWA (Real World Assets), can link carbon assets to the market, providing new financing avenues for low-carbon technologies [12].