Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on November 3, 2025. The trends include upward, downward, and fluctuating movements, and the intensity of the trends is also indicated [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 921.92 yuan, up 1.07% [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11,441 yuan, up 1.66% [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,010 yuan, down 1.08% [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,355 yuan [14]. - **Lead**: The continuous reduction of overseas inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,390 yuan, up 0.23% [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan, up 0.11% [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity will move upward. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,300 yuan [22]. - **Alumina**: It is anchored by supply reduction. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view. The price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,793 yuan [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will run strongly. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,805 yuan [22]. - **Nickel**: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The expectation of复产 restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan [28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by positive sentiment, the futures price has risen. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the PS2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan [33]. - **Iron Ore**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 12601 contract closed at 800 yuan, down 0.31% [36]. - **Rebar**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the RB2601 contract closed at 3,106 yuan, down 0.48% [41][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the HC2601 contract closed at 3,308 yuan, down 0.72% [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5,500 yuan [46]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract closed at 5,772 yuan [46]. - **Coke**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the J2601 contract closed at 1,777 yuan, down 0.5% [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Driven by macro - economic factors and sector themes, it will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the JM2601 contract closed at 1,286 yuan, down 0.2% [51]. - **Log**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 743 yuan [53][54]. - **Rubber**: It will run in a fluctuating manner. The price and trend intensity are not specified in the provided text [57]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: It will fluctuate strongly, and the volatility will continue to increase [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to strengthen at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market reached a record high for the year [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will consolidate in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They will return to fundamentals and fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The driving force for the oil market is lacking, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The rebound of US soybeans supports the expansion of the soybean - palm oil spread [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans reached a new high, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow and fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Soybean**: It may fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly consolidate within a range [4]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the seed cotton price on the cotton futures has weakened [4]. - **Egg**: It will adjust in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Live Pig**: The price center may further decline [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Monitor risks in US banks [2] - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2] - Copper: Lack clear drivers, prices to oscillate [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Declining overseas inventories support prices [2] - Tin: Focus on macro impacts [2] - Aluminum: Center of gravity to shift upwards [2] - Alumina: Anchor on supply reduction [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Run strongly [2] - Nickel: Smelting end inventory accumulation suppresses, while mine end uncertainties support [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices to oscillate in a narrow range at low levels [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold and silver prices showed mixed trends. For example, Comex gold 2512 fell 0.62% to 4013.40, while Shanghai silver 2512 rose 1.66% to 11441. Trading volumes also varied, with Comex silver 2512 seeing a significant increase of 57,975 in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: Gold and silver ETF holdings and inventories changed. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 1 to 1,039.20, and Comex gold inventories (in ounces) decreased by 216,666 to 38,243,477 [4]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Included news such as China's Ministry of Commerce's export exemptions for Nexperia and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai copper's main contract fell 1.08% to 87,010, and London copper 3M electronic trading fell 0.35% to 10,892. Trading volumes and positions also changed [10]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Shanghai copper inventories increased by 2,273 to 39,710, and London copper inventories decreased by 325 to 134,625. Spreads such as LME copper spreads and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Included news like the reversal of a copper smelting pollution - control regulation by US President Trump and production data from Anglo American and Glencore [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai zinc's main contract was at 22355, and London zinc 3M electronic trading rose 0.18% to 3050. Trading volumes and positions decreased [13]. - **Spreads and Inventories**: Shanghai 0 zinc spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and both Shanghai and London zinc inventories increased [13]. - **News**: Included statements from US Treasury Secretary Bezant on interest rate cuts and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai lead's main contract rose 0.23% to 17390, and London lead 3M electronic trading rose 0.15% to 2025. Trading volumes increased, and positions changed [16]. - **Spreads and Inventories**: Shanghai 1 lead spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and London lead inventories decreased by 3875 to 220300 [16]. - **News**: Included statements from Pan Gongsheng on financial policies and China's October PMI data [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai tin's main contract rose 0.11% to 283,910, and London tin 3M electronic trading rose 1.29% to 36,180. Trading volumes and positions changed [18]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 58 to 5,674, and London tin inventories increased by 85 to 2,875. Spreads such as SMM 1 tin spreads changed [18]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, included news on trade policies, Fed interest rate cut views, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21300, and LME aluminum 3M closed at 2888. Trading volumes and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: LME aluminum inventories increased, and spreads such as LME aluminum cash - 3M spreads and near - month vs. consecutive - month spreads changed [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Included news on China's initiative at the APEC meeting and the US government shutdown [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai nickel's main contract was at 120,590, and stainless steel's main contract was at 12,655. Trading volumes and positions changed [24]. - **Industry News**: Included news on Indonesia's takeover of a nickel mine and China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for Russian imports [24][25].

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $48.64, with a recent high of $48.77 and a low of $48.19, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed may not further cut interest rates in December, which has drawn criticism from officials in the Trump administration [2] - Fed Governor Stephen Milan warned that maintaining tight monetary policy could lead to an economic recession, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut instead of the recent 25 basis point reduction [2] Group 2 - Despite a significant drop last week, international silver stabilized at a support level of $45.5 and is expected to continue a bullish trend if it breaks above the key resistance level of $49.5 [3] - The focus for silver this week is on potential upward movement, with key support levels at $47 and $45.5, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,050 dollars/ton with a 0.18% increase [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 93,564 lots, a decrease of 17,526 lots, and the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,501 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 116,409 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots, and the LME zinc open interest decreased by 43 lots [1] - **Premium**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was 85.57 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.45 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,774 tons, an increase of 650 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons [1] News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that if inflation declines, the Fed should cut interest rates, and Trump has not imposed a 10% tariff on Canada [2] - Three Fed officials opposed the October rate cut, while Waller supported a December rate cut. The market currently expects a 61% chance of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from 92% before Powell's speech [2][3]

Core Insights - Despite initial fears of inflation and recession due to tariffs, the actual impact has been less severe than anticipated, with the U.S. economy continuing to grow [1] - Tariff revenues collected by the U.S. Treasury are significantly lower than predicted, indicating that the expected benefits of tariffs have not materialized [1] Tariff Revenue and Effective Tax Rates - The effective average tax rate paid by companies is approximately 12.5%, which is lower than the estimated 17% statutory rate due to loopholes and exemptions [2] - Many companies have shifted production to countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey, further reducing the effective tax rate [2] Corporate Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Costs - Companies are stockpiling inventory before tariffs take effect and utilizing bonded warehouses to minimize tariff costs [2] - U.S. companies have only passed a portion of the tariff costs onto consumers, with estimates suggesting that consumers have absorbed 50%-70% of the costs [3] Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, manufacturers are estimated to have absorbed about 80% of the tariff costs, only passing 20% onto consumers, due to higher profit margins post-pandemic [4] - Retailers, such as Aritzia, have shown resilience against tariff impacts, maintaining profitability despite facing high tariffs on imports [4] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by a strong stock market and low unemployment, despite initial concerns about reduced consumer confidence [5] - Economists caution that the long-term effects of tariffs may still lead to increased costs for consumers as companies gradually raise prices [5]

美国财长警告，若美联储不进一步降息，更多经济部门恐陷衰退。 尽管美国经济整体增长强劲，但特朗普政府继续以经济疲软为由向美联储施压，要求更快降息。 风险提示及免责条款 周日，美国财政部长贝森特对媒体表示，美国经济部分部门已经陷入衰退，如果美联储不继续降息，其 他部门也可能步入衰退。不过贝森特没有具体说明是哪些部门。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 贝森特在接受采访时称，美联储的政策已经造成了严重的分配问题，特别是在住房市场和对低收入消费 者的影响方面。他认为美联储可以通过降息来解决"住房衰退"问题，并帮助负债多于资产的低收入消费 者。 美联储本周宣布降息，但出人意料地强烈暗示12月份的降息并非板上钉钉，令市场感到意外。此前投资 者几乎百分之百确信12月份会有降息行动。 这一立场转变反映出央行在面对政府压力时试图保持政策独立性，同时也显示出对当前经济形势评估的 复杂性。 政府关门的影响正在扩大到经济数据收集领域，关键经济指标的缺失使得准确评估经济状况变得更加困 难。这 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that President Trump has not yet imposed a 10% tariff on Canada, indicating ongoing economic transitions and potential impacts on inflation and interest rates [1] Economic Transition - The economy is currently undergoing a transformation period, with some sectors already in recession [1] - If inflation decreases, the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1] Real Estate Sector - A reduction in mortgage rates by the Federal Reserve could potentially end the ongoing downturn in the real estate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently hesitant to lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and a resilient economy, despite market expectations for a rate cut in early 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Obstacles to Rate Cuts - The primary barrier to rate cuts is that inflation has not been fully tamed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly down from its peak of 9%, but recent data has repeatedly exceeded expectations, indicating a plateau in the decline [2]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, with high housing service costs and service sector inflation supported by wage growth, compelling the Fed to exercise patience [2][3]. - The strong job market and economic growth reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, as the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is steady, supporting consumer spending and contributing to inflation [2]. Group 2: Drivers for Future Rate Cuts - Despite the challenges, rate cuts are likely on the Fed's policy path, albeit delayed, as maintaining high rates carries its own risks [4]. - The lagging effects of restrictive interest rates may suppress business investment and consumer credit, potentially leading to unnecessary economic downturns or a hard landing in the job market [4]. - The Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and preventing a spike in unemployment, necessitating a gradual approach to rate cuts once inflation is under control [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of rate cuts in 2023 remains, but the timing and magnitude have been significantly adjusted [6]. - Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts have shifted from early predictions of March or June to September or later, with the focus now on whether any cuts will occur this year [6]. - The anticipated number of rate cuts has decreased from 6-7 to 1-2, with the Fed indicating that any rate reduction will be gradual and data-dependent [6]. - Political pressures in the election year of 2024 may complicate the Fed's decision-making process, despite its efforts to maintain independence [6].

Group 1: Economic Pressure on South Korea and Japan - Trump is demanding a total of $900 billion from Japan and South Korea, with Japan expected to contribute $550 billion and South Korea $350 billion, framing it as a "prepayment" rather than investment or cooperation [1][12] - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed concerns that the pressure for such large investments could lead to systemic risks reminiscent of the 1997 financial crisis, as the country lacks robust foreign exchange reserves and economic growth [3] - Japan's investment list includes major companies like SoftBank and Hitachi, focusing on energy and AI, with most investments backed by government institutions [3] Group 2: Declining Consumer Confidence in the U.S. - U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 94.6 in October 2025, marking the lowest level since April of the same year, with short-term expectations dropping to 71.5, indicating potential economic recession [3][14] - A significant 43% of U.S. respondents reported that high prices are affecting their living standards, an increase of 4 percentage points from July [3] - The retail sales growth in April 2025 slowed to 0.1%, a stark decline from 1.7% in March, reflecting the impact of declining consumer confidence [5] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are identified as a major factor contributing to the decline in consumer confidence, with the U.S. trade deficit widening by 22.1% to $103.6 billion in July [5] - The Atlanta Federal Reserve revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q3 down to 2.2% due to the economic impact of tariffs [5] - The frequency of the term "tariff" mentioned in earnings calls has reached a ten-year high, indicating growing concern among companies about economic uncertainty [6] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation expectations among U.S. consumers rose to 4.9% for the next year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone [8] - The average tariff rate is projected to increase from 10% to approximately 15%, further straining consumer prices [8] - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI nearing a 3.1% annualized growth rate, impacting the quality of life for middle and low-income families [11] Group 5: Employment and Consumer Behavior - The U.S. job market shows signs of structural weakness, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, below market expectations [8] - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior, with more Americans opting for personal loans over high-interest credit card debt, as personal loan issuance surged by 18% year-on-year [9] - Retailers are facing tough decisions, with companies like Walmart and Target adapting differently to rising costs due to tariffs, impacting their profit margins [15]

Group 1: Employment Market Concerns - The U.S. employment market is showing significant signs of deterioration, with recent non-farm payroll data indicating only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000 [8][11] - Major companies have announced large-scale layoffs, with some attributing these to artificial intelligence, including Chegg cutting 45% of its workforce and UPS reducing 48,000 jobs [10][11] - The uncertainty in the job market is causing consumers to delay major purchases, including homes, which could further impact the economy [12] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant shift, with sellers now forced to lower prices to complete transactions, contrasting sharply with the bidding wars seen during the pandemic [2] - Many potential homebuyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating lower prices and interest rates in the future, which could lead to further declines in home prices [2][3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will remain above 6% in 2026, despite recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may not significantly lower long-term rates due to inflation concerns [3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - The combination of a weakening job market and high mortgage rates is likely to exert downward pressure on home prices, potentially leading to an economic downturn before 2026 [12] - The increase in housing inventory and the expectation of continued price declines may create a challenging environment for both buyers and sellers [2][3] - The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for a recession looming if current trends continue [12]