一、A股的大小伙伴们，节日快乐呀，明天周二A股就将开市了，大家期待吗？我相信是万众期待呀，那么周二A股是涨还是跌呢，我话不多说，简单发表 观点吧。 二、老美公布的通胀数据降温提振了降息预期，市场对美联储6月降息的概率预期由49.9%攀升至83%，这对全球资本市场构成利好。 四、综上所述，我现在是看多周二A股走势，周二A股有望向上收复4100点，你们大家的观点如何呢？你们认可我的观点吗？欢迎大家评论发表看法。 一二三 Dans 三、老美特不靠谱关税失败，但又宣布新关税10%，再又调至15%，老美真是与全球为敌呀，我相信今天周一晚间美股一定会大跌，就让老美搬起石头砸自 己的脚吧，大家到了晚上看看美股会不会大跌吧，相信我没错，但对我们的关税之前是20%，因此税率实际是降低的，周二A股走势有望乐观。 ...

基本面： 周一（02月23日）白银早盘大幅走高上涨，美国增加关税大棒利多银价，最新报87.30美元/盎司，白银的异动：值得特别注意的是上周五公布的经济数据及 关税裁决略微削弱了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。芝加哥商品交易所工具显示，市场对美联储6月会议至少降息25个基点的预期从前一日的58.6%回落至 53.8%。上周美元走强部分源于美伊紧张局势升级。特朗普上周五表示正考虑对伊朗实施有限军事打击，但未透露具体细节；伊朗外长则称上周核谈判后数 日内将准备好反提案草案。美国总统特朗普：将立即把对许多国家征收的10%全球关税提高到完全合法且经过法律检验的15%水平 特朗普在社交平台发文 称，基于对美国联邦最高法院20日就关税问题作出的裁决进行全面、详尽且完整的审查，谨此声明，作为美国总统，我将立即把对许多国家征收的10%全球 关税提高到完全合法且经过法律检验的15%水平。这些国家中许多几十年来一直在"剥削"美国，却未受到任何惩罚（直到我上台！）。在接下来的几个月 里，特朗普政府将确定并颁布新的合法关税，这将使美国再次伟大的非凡进程继续。 美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4.1%美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4. ...

最近，美国公布两大关键数据，降息预期升温。 第一大关键数据，美国经济放缓，2025年第四季度实际GDP年化初值环比增长1.4%，第三季度终值为4.4%，大幅回落，主因是政府支出和出口转为下 降，消费者支出增速放缓。 第二大关键数据，美国物价回落，1月整体CPI同比上涨2.4%，比2025年12月的2.7%大回落0.3个百分点，创下近期通胀新低。 数据公布后，交易员对美联储6月实施降息的概率预期大幅攀升至83%（此前为49.9%）。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特近期表示，美联储还有很大的降息空间。 特朗普平均每个月至少三次提及降息："美国的利率应该是世界上最低的"，美联储主席人选凯文·沃什"只需要降低利率就行了"，"强美元损害美国"。 据此判断，2026年美联储降息放水将超预期，特朗普正推行"降息+弱美元"战略，目标降低债务负担，吸引制造业回流。 截至2026年2月，美国债务规模38.7万亿美元，过去15年，以年均7.2%的速度高速增长，远超2%的GDP实际增速。2025财年（2024年10月1日-2025年9月30 日）净利息支出约为9700亿美元，净利息支出占GDP比重约为 3.2%。债务压顶，去年因为预算 ...

| < W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 5145.519 "# | | | 5111.125 | | 总量 | | 0 | | +34.394 | +0.67% 升益 | | 5108.140 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5150.940 持 | 仓 | 0 | | 会 醫 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 指 5097.720 | 仓 | | O | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 关于日本 | 目K 王日 | | 周K | | 月K | 曲家 | | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 5150.940 | | | | | 0.78% | 卖一 5145.926 | | | | | | | | | दी. 5145.519 | | | 5111.125 | | | | | 0.00% | 7:22 5145.468 7:22 5145.720 | 0 0 | | | | | | | | ...

Economic Performance Summary - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.2% in 2025, which is a decline from 2.8% in 2024 and represents the lowest growth rate since 2021 [1] - The initial annualized quarterly growth rate for Q4 2025 is estimated at 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.8%, marking the slowest growth since the tariff impacts began in Q1 2025 [1] Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy faces multiple headwinds, including unpredictable tariff policies, a weak labor market, strict immigration policies, and record federal government shutdowns [1] - The economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2022 due to a surge in imports before tariffs were implemented, marking the first quarterly shrinkage since Q2 2022 and the worst performance in nearly three years [1] Consumer Spending and Investment - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by 3.5% and 2.4% in the last two quarters of the previous year [2] - The surge in technology stocks has boosted household wealth, leading to increased consumer spending, particularly in AI-driven computer and peripheral expenditures, which grew by 70% over the past year, exceeding $300 billion by the end of 2025 [2] Wealth Disparity and Economic Outlook - The economic landscape shows a widening wealth gap, with the top 10% of households controlling over two-thirds of national wealth, while the middle 40% has seen their wealth share decline from approximately 36% to below 30% [3] - Rising costs of living, including housing, healthcare, and childcare, are outpacing income growth for many Americans, complicating the economic outlook [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as the government shutdown is projected to result in a GDP loss of at least two percentage points [3] - Despite calls for rate cuts, persistent inflation remains a significant barrier, with the core personal consumption expenditures price index rising to 3.0% in December, above the Fed's 2% target [3]

AI正在重塑未来，这一点无论是深度参与还是旁观的专业投资人，几乎都达成了共识。但在如何平衡投资价格与企业现金流的问题上，不同的投资机构 选择了截然不同的道路。绿光资本（Greenlight Capital）则是坚持传统价值投资立场的代表之一。其创始人大卫·艾因霍恩（David Einhorn）不仅在去年三 季度致持有人的信中继续扮演着少数"非共识者"的角色，在最新的访谈交流中，依然在重申自己的观点。 这位因在2008年金融危机前成功做空雷曼兄弟而声名鹊起的价值投资者，再一次在市场最喧嚣的时刻，选择在一旁冷眼旁观。面对席卷全球的AI浪潮， 他没有急于拥抱"改变世界"的宏大叙事，而是反复强调一个朴素的问题：即便技术改变世界，股东是否一定能赚到钱？ "作为一个深度价值投资者，这种不确定性让我很难下注。" 在他看来，今天的市场与1999年的互联网泡沫并非毫无相似之处。资本投入以"不能落后"为理由迅速膨胀，竞争更像是一场被迫参与的军备竞赛，而非清 晰可见的商业回报逻辑。当估值与叙事并肩狂奔时，价值纪律正在退场。他甚至直言，这是自己职业生涯中所见"最昂贵的市场"。 当被问及如何看待当前市场最主导的AI行情时，艾因霍恩表示 ...

这事儿可闹大了，真的。 2026年2月20日，就在美国联邦最高法院以6比3的投票结果，白纸黑字裁定特朗普政府那套大规模全球 关税政策"违法"的几个小时后，特朗普本人站在白宫记者会的讲台上，脸涨得通红。 他对着镜头，几乎是咬着牙挤出一句话：这个裁决，"可耻"。 你猜怎么着？他半点没服软，反而当场甩出了一颗更重磅的炸弹。 "我将签署一项行政命令，"特朗普说，声音里带着那种熟悉的、不容置疑的强硬，"依据《1974年贸易 法》第122条，在已经征收的常规关税基础上，额外对全球所有输美商品加征10%的关税。" 而且，他明确说了，这项新关税预计"三天内"就会生效。 但有个关键细节，和以前不一样了。根据他这次搬出来的法律条款，这10%的税，最多只能收150天。 想继续？那得美国国会点头批准才行。 同样在2月20日晚间，美国商务部经济分析局公布了2025年第四季度的关键经济数据。每一个数字，都 让人心里咯噔一下。 这明摆着是换了个"工具"继续干。为啥要换？因为最高法院刚刚把他之前的那个"工具"，《国际紧急经 济权力法》，给没收了。 法院说得很清楚，宪法把征税权给了国会，没给总统。特朗普之前绕开国会，自己拍板搞全面加税，属 于 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector will continue into 2026, driven by inflation, resource scarcity, and expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Inflation and Resource Demand - The article highlights that inflation has surged due to unprecedented monetary expansion by central banks, leading to a significant increase in the prices of commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals like copper and silver [2][3]. - The demand for industrial metals is expected to remain robust due to the growth in AI infrastructure and renewable energy investments, with companies like Google and Amazon planning to invest heavily in AI-related capital expenditures [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The article discusses the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market expectations suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points in 2026, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices [4][5]. - The dynamics between former President Trump and Fed Chair Powell are noted, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy that could favor lower interest rates [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The article suggests that while the copper market may experience short-term fluctuations due to increased inventory levels, the long-term demand remains strong, and investors should look for entry points during price corrections [6][8]. - The small metals market, particularly tungsten and antimony, is highlighted as having significant growth potential due to supply constraints and strategic importance, with prices already showing substantial increases [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Approaches - The article recommends using ETFs as a way to mitigate risks associated with individual stock selection in the non-ferrous metals sector, allowing investors to benefit from overall market trends without the need for extensive research [9][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment strategy, focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term market fluctuations [11][12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were illegal, stating that there was no clear legal authority for such actions, which could lead to significant financial implications for the U.S. government and businesses [4][5]. - The ruling affects tariffs exceeding $175 billion, and there is uncertainty regarding the potential refund of tariffs already paid, which could amount to $170 billion [5]. - Following the ruling, U.S. stock indices saw a rise, indicating market relief over the potential easing of trade pressures on U.S. companies [5]. Group 2 - In response to the Supreme Court's decision, Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., which is set to last for 150 days unless extended by Congress [6][7]. - This new tariff strategy reflects a shift in legal justification but indicates a significant limitation on Trump's ability to impose tariffs without congressional approval [6][7]. - The announcement has raised concerns about escalating trade tensions, particularly with major trading partners like the EU and Australia [7]. Group 3 - Recent economic data revealed a sharp decline in U.S. GDP growth, with the annualized rate for Q4 2025 at only 1.4%, significantly below expectations and previous quarters [8][9]. - The decline in GDP is attributed to a government shutdown that affected federal spending and consumer behavior, leading to an estimated economic activity reduction of $100 billion [9]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE price index showing higher-than-expected growth, indicating persistent inflationary pressures on consumers [9][10]. Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts has shifted, with a key official indicating a reduction in the expected pace of rate cuts due to stronger-than-anticipated employment data and persistent inflation [10][11]. - This change in outlook has led to a reassessment of market expectations regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with traders now anticipating a delay until mid-2025 [11][12]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly in light of political pressures and criticisms regarding its economic research and policy decisions [12].