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东南亚研究 | 美联储降息周期下的港股再审视
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 02:25
Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut on September 18, 2024, is set against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, including risks of stagflation in the U.S. and misalignment in the economic cycles of China and the U.S., suggesting that the Hong Kong stock market may not replicate historical trends but instead exhibit significant structural differentiation [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Historical experience indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, the Hong Kong stock market typically shows a "preventive rate cut rally" or a "recessionary rate cut decline" pattern [1]. - In terms of market style, the Hang Seng Technology Index has demonstrated a "high win rate and high return" characteristic during preventive rate cut cycles, while other styles have not shown independent trends [1][2]. - Industry-wise, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples tend to perform better during recessionary rate cuts, while high-growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals excel during preventive rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - The current macroeconomic environment is more complex than historical experiences, with the U.S. economy facing stagflation risks and ongoing misalignment with China's economic cycle, making it difficult for the Hong Kong market to follow a straightforward trend [2][3]. - The upcoming October monetary policy meeting is crucial for assessing the future pace and intensity of rate cuts, influenced by various structural variables, including political pressures and the ongoing AI industry revolution [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Scenarios - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the next one to two quarters will depend not only on the Fed's rate cut path but also on the recovery process of the Chinese economy [2][52]. - Three potential scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline Scenario**: Gradual Fed rate cuts with a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, favoring growth-sensitive sectors [52][53]. 2. **Optimistic Scenario**: More aggressive Fed cuts without triggering recession fears, leading to a favorable liquidity environment for growth stocks [55]. 3. **Pessimistic Scenario**: Fed pauses or slows rate cuts due to persistent inflation, putting pressure on the Hong Kong market, which will depend heavily on the recovery of the Chinese economy [56]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - The analysis indicates that different types of rate cut cycles lead to distinct long-term performances in the Hong Kong market, with preventive rate cuts generally resulting in positive returns for the Hang Seng Index [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown superior performance during preventive rate cuts, benefiting from lower discount rates and improved financing conditions [12][13]. - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during recessionary rate cuts, while growth sectors thrive in preventive cut environments, highlighting the importance of sector selection in investment strategies [13][14].
港股速报 | 港股低开 长风药业上市首日高开超218%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-08 02:01
恒生科技指数报6543点,下跌6.90点,跌幅0.11%。 分析人士认为,在此前港股快速上涨背景下,市场积累了大量获利盘,部分资金选择获利了结,导致短期回调。此次下跌被视为技术性调整,尤其是在恒生 指数接近关键阻力区域时,市场出现反复是正常现象。 新股方面,长风药业(02652.HK)今日上市交易,截至发稿,长风药业报47港元,较发行价涨超218%。 长风药业深耕呼吸系统疾病治疗领域,主要专注于吸入技术及吸入药物的研发、生产及商业化,是少数几家拥有广泛吸入制剂产品组合的公司之一。公司开 发以患者为中心的新型疗法,以治疗部分最严重的呼吸系统及肺部疾病,已拥有覆盖广泛患者、医学专科及治疗领域的产品组合。截至目前,产品组合包括 6个获国家药监局或FDA批准的产品,以及20多款正在中国、美国及╱或欧洲等主要市场和东南亚及南美等新兴市场进行全球开发的产品,多款产品处于临 床试验后期阶段或PK-BE试验中,即将注册和商业化。 其他方面,恒生指数成分股中,京东健康(06618.HK)涨超3%、美的集团(00300.HK)、信义光能(00968.HK)涨超1%;龙湖集团(00960.HK)跌超 8%。恒生科技指数成分股中小鹏 ...
港股开盘 | 恒生指数低开0.21% 黄金股表现强势 紫金黄金国际(02259)涨超2%
智通财经网· 2025-10-08 01:40
浙商国际发布研报称,回顾9月港股市场走势,市场振荡向上加速上涨,连续5个月收涨。整体来看,港 股市场基本面仍偏弱,资金面环境进一步改善,政策面巩固经济稳增长,情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。当 下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间,对于后续走势,即使短期行情有波折,仍不建议悲观。对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面,看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽 车、新消费、创新药、科技等。 恒生指数低开0.21%,恒生科技指数跌0.11%。黄金股表现强势,紫金黄金国际涨超2%;科网股多数低 开,阿里巴巴跌1.33%。 关于港股后市 交银国际发布研报称,9月港股延续震荡上行态势,在中美谈判重启和海外降息预期双重利好助推下, 叠加科技板块轮动上涨,对大盘形成重要提振。外部环境延续向好,中美贸易谈判重启,双方就关税削 减、出口管制等关键议题展开磋商,市场对双边关系进展预期有所升温。国庆及中秋长假影响,市场预 计将短暂进入"淡季"模式,叠加美国政府短期融资法案不确定性,海外扰动影响或放大。同时,市场对 美联储降息时点和幅度仍存分歧,短期内可能仍以"有条件降息"为主调,预期反复或引起市场震荡。 本文转载自"腾讯自 ...
美股三大指数下跌,特斯拉跌超4%
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-08 00:23
黄金成为盘中亮点。截至当地时间10月7日收盘,COMEX黄金期货价格收报4007.9美元/盎司,创收盘价历史新高;伦敦金现货价格一度触及3991.07美元/ 盎司。10月8日,国际金价继续走强,截至北京时间7:30,COMEX黄金期货盘中最高触及4015美元/盎司。 当地时间10月7日,美股三大指数小幅下挫,国际金价迎来历史性突破,COMEX黄金期货价格收报4007.9美元/盎司,创收盘价历史新高。芝加哥商品交 易所(CME)"美联储观察"工具的数据显示,市场预期美联储将于10月继续降息,为黄金上涨提供支撑。 据央视新闻报道,正在华盛顿访问的加拿大总理卡尼当地时间10月7日与美国总统特朗普在白宫举行了卡尼就任总理以来两人的第二次会晤。特朗普再次 暗示将吞并加拿大。 美股小幅下挫 截至当地时间10月7日收盘,标普500指数下跌0.38%,道琼斯指数下跌0.2%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.67%。零售股承压,耐克跌幅超过3%。 科技板块表现不佳,美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.81%。其中特斯拉跌超4%,谷歌-C跌近2%,七巨头中仅亚马逊上涨。 | ▲ ▲ 刀得美国科技元目头指数 MAG | | | | --- | -- ...
Fed Rate Cuts Might Not Lead to Lower Mortgage Rates. What That Means for Investors.
Barrons· 2025-10-07 19:08
For many months, Donald Trump pushed hard for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing, in part, that the move would spur refinancing activity and make housing more affordable, thereby giving the economy an added jolt. And for many months, the Federal Reserve brushed aside his pleas—until now. In September the central bank cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points ending a nine-month pause in the easing cycle. ...
黄金飙升至3920美元,日经225指数首破47000点!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 18:42
亚洲市场今天迎来双重历史性突破,黄金与日经225指数同时绽放异彩,背后竟是两大完全不同的逻辑在驱动。 今日亚洲交易时段,投资者目睹了历史性一幕:日经225指数首次突破47000点大关,飙升近2000点,涨幅超过4%。 与此同时,避险资产黄金也不甘示弱,现货黄金价格飙升至3920.77美元/盎司,再度刷新历史纪录。 两大资产类别同时爆发,背后是截然不同的投资逻辑与市场叙事。 01 日股狂飙 02 高市早苗效应 本次日股暴漲并非空穴来风,与上周末日本政坛的重大事件直接相关。 10月4日,高市早苗在执政自民党总裁选举中胜出,预计将在本月晚些时候的国会投票中成为日本首位女首相。 市场将这一结果解读为积极信号,因为高市早苗主张宽松财政政策,支持"安倍经济学",她力推现金补贴和退稅政策以帮助受通脹困擾的家庭。 明治安田綜合研究所經濟學家Kazutaka Maeda表示:"外界普遍認為高市並不支持加息,這可能使日本央行更難推進緊縮步調。" 今天上午,日本股市开盘即展现出强势上涨态势。日经225指数一举突破47000点,创下历史新高。 截至发稿,该指数报47,682点,飙升1912点,涨幅高达4.18%。 不仅日经指数,东证 ...
4大消费新场景来了,二十届四中会能否搅动市场风云?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 16:26
美国政府"停摆"再度爆发,国会僵局未解,市场押注美联储降息概率攀升 2025年10月1日凌晨,美国特朗普政府正式停摆,上次还得追溯到7年前的旧账,现在这事儿又卷土重来了。谁家凌晨还不睡觉,那几个国会议员真是争得面 红耳赤,连夜辩论拨款法案,结果愣是没讲出个头绪来——好家伙,参议院领袖像吵架的大爷,麦克风都快被砸了,镜头一拉特写,大厅坐着几个愁眉苦脸 的公务员,手里攥着下个月账单。老师我看着电视,一边嚼着瓜子一边琢磨,美国居然还能停摆,学期末才有这种紧张气氛,办公室的阿姨小声念叨:"这 回估计又得降息了。"据说从10月3日临时拨款被否以后,政府停摆还是老样子,连签证办理都关门了,国家公园门口钉了告示,来旅游的小伙子说一 句:"没想到来玩也碰着停摆。"经济学家比谁都急,美国人心里头啊,十有八九都在等美联储怎么表态。 细抠细讲,停摆耽误的不止是那几个窗口,像军队、执法机构这些硬件部门还得死扛,大兵在办公室里嚼着三明治,盯着新闻屏幕发呆。他们说,"咱们还 在岗,政府关门也得守着",老师我可真佩服——但公园导游、小商户、旅行社都愁得眼圈发黑,这点事儿直接搅乱一锅粥。白宫里头气氛紧绷,有人大半 夜还打电话问"工资还能发不 ...
帮主郑重聊外储:3.3万亿存折里,藏着咱们的“黄金家底”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 15:49
今儿菜市场买菜,卖豆腐的张姨都在念叨:"听说黄金又破4000美元啦?"您看,这金价涨到天上,连街坊邻居都操心起国家的"钱袋子"了。今儿咱就唠唠刚 出炉的外储数据——3.33万亿美金,连续两个月站在历史高位,顺带聊聊央行悄悄囤了11个月的黄金。 先说这外储,3.3万亿是什么概念?打个比方,就像咱们家存折里趴着3.3万亿的"应急钱",从2015年到现在,整整十年才又摸回这个数。不过帮主跑财经这 些年知道,外储可不是单纯的"钱生钱"。9月这165亿的涨幅,说白了是全球股市、美债这些"家里的资产"跟着美联储降息涨了估值。但您注意看,美元指数 基本没动,说明咱们没跟着美元大起大落,稳稳把住了节奏。 最有意思的是黄金。央行偷偷买了11个月,现在兜里揣着2303吨黄金,相当于把大半个鸟巢填满黄金砖。但9月只加了4万盎司,是近一年最少的。为啥?您 想啊,金价都飙到4000美元了,再大举买入就成"高位接盘"。但央行聪明啊,小步慢跑——既告诉全球"咱在优化储备结构",又不被短期价格牵着走。这就 像咱们散户买基金,跌了分批加仓,涨了慢慢收着,典型的中长线思维。 帮主翻了翻历史,2015年外储跌破3万亿时,市场慌得不行,现在稳稳站在 ...
美联储超级爆大消息!XBIT发声释放重磅信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 15:35
本周,美国联邦政府因临时拨款法案再度停摆,9月非农数据延迟发布,市场对美联储10月降息预期骤然升温。XBIT数据显示,美联储10月降息25个基点概率达 94.6%,12月累计降息50个基点概率超84%。然而,这种确定性正被双重风险撕裂——就业市场下行压力与通胀上行风险交织,美联储副主席杰斐逊警告"双重使 命面临前所未有的挑战"。 美联储政策迷雾中的数字灯塔 当华盛顿陷入"政府停摆"漩涡,华尔街紧盯美联储政策动向时,一个关于web3钱包的科技力量正在悄然改变数字经济的底层逻辑。全球去中心化金融用户突破 3.2亿之际,XBIT去中心化交易所以"私钥自主权"为核心的安全架构,正成为数字时代经济通行证的新范式。面对"政府停摆"漩涡,XBIT交易所率先发声:传统金 融体系的数据真空期,恰恰是web3经济通行证的价值凸显时刻。 web3钱包的经济通行证价值 在美联储政策路径模糊期,XBIT的"经济通行证"属性愈发显著。该钱包不仅支持BTC、ETH等主流资产,更通过跨链技术实现与DeFi协议的无缝对接。例如,用 户可直接在钱包内参与流动性挖矿,无需将资产转移至中心化平台。这种设计完美契合了美联储官员古尔斯比强调的"劳动力市 ...
国际金价屡创历史新高!专家建议黄金投资路径:ETF成最优解
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 14:36
Core Insights - Gold prices have been on a continuous rise, with spot gold surpassing $3,900 per ounce on October 6 and reaching $3,977.45 per ounce on October 7, while COMEX gold futures touched $4,000 per ounce, marking new historical highs [1] - Year-to-date, gold has increased by 49%, with a 27% rise in 2024, driven by strong central bank purchases, growing demand for gold ETFs, a weakening dollar, and retail investors seeking hedges amid trade and geopolitical tensions [1] - The recent support for gold's upward trend came after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated a steady reduction in borrowing costs for the remainder of the year, with market expectations for further rate cuts in October and December at 95% and 83%, respectively [1] Investment Strategies - With gold prices reaching historical highs, interest in gold and related financial investments is increasing, with experts recommending tracking physical gold prices through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as part of a diversified investment portfolio rather than direct purchases of coins or bars [4] - Sameer Samana from Wells Fargo Investment Institute suggests that during extreme stress periods, gold stocks tend to underperform, making gold-backed ETFs a better investment option compared to gold-related stocks and mining shares [4] - Blair duQuesnay from Ritholtz Wealth Management highlights that the transaction costs for physical gold, including bars and coins, are higher and storage issues must be considered, while gold mining stocks are less correlated with gold prices and more tied to business fundamentals [4] - Despite the strong growth in gold prices, financial advisors generally recommend limiting gold investments to 3% of an overall investment portfolio [4]