周五，黄金价格攀升至每盎司约4,190美元，逼近近五周以来的高点，并有望实现连续第四个月的上涨。市场分析认为，这一趋势主要源于投资者对货币政 策进一步宽松的信心不断增强。 近期，多项因素共同推动了市场预期的转变。一方面，部分经济数据表现疲软，增强了市场对政策调整的预期；另一方面，多位具有影响力的官员也表达了 对进一步宽松立场的支持。这些因素共同作用，使得市场对短期利率下调的预期显著升温。 据市场观察，目前投资者对下个月利率下调的预期概率已超过80%，较一周前的30%大幅上升。与此同时，部分分析还指出，市场预计未来两年内可能还将 迎来多次利率调整。 值得关注的是，黄金市场的强劲表现不仅源于短期政策预期，也得益于结构性需求的支撑。近年来，央行持续购入黄金，同时，非主权机构资金也大量流入 相关交易基金，共同推动了黄金价格的长期上行。在这一背景下，有分析指出，黄金有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 从市场情绪来看，投资者对政策走向的预判正逐步趋于一致。尽管部分经济数据发布存在滞后，但整体趋势已在一定程度上影响了资产配置行为。黄金作为 传统避险资产，其价格走势往往反映出市场对中长期经济环境与政策方向的判断。 此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention as a strong investment opportunity due to structural supply shortages and increasing demand from renewable energy technologies, particularly solar panels [2][5]. Group 1: Silver Price Performance - Since October 3, 2023, spot silver has surged 163% from a low of $20.67 per ounce to a historical high of $54.38 per ounce on November 13, 2023, followed by a correction of approximately 5.6% [2]. - In comparison, spot gold rose 142% from $1,813.90 per ounce on October 3, 2023, to a record of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, 2023, also experiencing a correction of about 5.0% [2]. - Although silver has not significantly outperformed gold, its stronger percentage increase occurred with less media attention compared to gold [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to increase from 644 million ounces in 2023 to 689.1 million ounces in 2024, with silver used in solar panels rising from 191.8 million ounces to 243.7 million ounces, marking a 158% increase from 94.4 million ounces in 2020 [6]. - The global solar capacity is expected to add approximately 600 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, reaching nearly 1,000 GW by 2030 [7]. - The International Energy Agency anticipates an addition of 4,000 GW of solar power capacity from 2024 to 2030 [8]. Group 3: Market Supply Shortages - By 2030, the demand from the solar sector alone could increase silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually, representing a 13% increase on top of the projected physical demand of 1.169 billion ounces in 2024 [9]. - The silver market is expected to face a significant supply gap of 501.4 million ounces in 2024, a substantial increase from 19.4 million ounces in 2023 [10]. - Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, meaning supply growth is largely dependent on the economic conditions of those metals rather than silver's fundamentals [10]. - Predictions indicate that global silver production may decline from an expected 944 million ounces in 2023 to 901 million ounces by 2030, due to some mines anticipated to close before 2030 [11].

10年期美国国债收益率回落至4%以下，达到近一个月以来的最低水平。这一变化主要源于市场对货币政策进一步宽松的预期增强。 在经济数据方面，最新公布的初请失业金人数出现意外下降，同时耐用品订单的增长幅度也超过市场预期，显示出部分经济领域仍保持一定韧 性。 另一方面，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）正考虑放宽对大型银行在补充杠杆率方面的强化要求。若该政策得以实施，将有助于银行更灵活地配 置资金，包括增加对美国国债的持有，从而可能对债券市场构成一定支撑。 总之，债券收益率的变动受到多重因素影响。市场对货币政策的预期、潜在的人事变动、经济数据表现以及金融监管政策的变化，都在不同程度 上影响着债券市场的走势。这些因素的后续发展值得持续关注，以便更好地理解市场方向的演变。 有消息指出，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特被视为下一任美联储主席的主要候选人之一。投资者普遍认为，若其出任，可能会延续当前倾 向于较低利率的政策方向，从而进一步强化了市场对宽松货币环境的预期。 目前，交易数据显示，市场对于今年12月降息的预期显著升温，相关概率已从一周前的约30%大幅上升至约85%，反映出投资者对货币政策可能 转向更为宽松的判断。此外 ...

【导读】加纳央行降息350个基点 大家好，简单关注一则加纳央行降息350个基点的消息！ 11月26日晚间，在通胀被预计将继续放缓的背景下，加纳央行连续第三次下调利率。 加纳央行行长约翰逊·阿西亚玛在首都阿克拉表示，货币政策委员会多数成员决定将关键利率下调350个 基点至18%。 阿西亚玛表示："当前实际利率水平仍然较高，为我们放松货币政策、进一步推动经济复苏提供了空 间。央行预计，未来的通胀走势将保持稳定，在目标区间附近运行，一直延续到2026年上半年。" 2022年12月，加纳通胀率曾一度高于54%；此后逐步回落，并在今年9月重新回到央行6%至10%的目标 区间。上个月通胀进一步降至8%，创下四年多来的新低。 作为非洲最大的黄金生产国，加纳受益于近期金价上涨以及财政前景改善，这帮助加纳货币塞地对美元 在今年累计升值约30%，缓解了通胀压力。 分析人士预计，这一决定将逐步降低贷款利率，为长期承受高借贷成本的企业和家庭带来缓解。 在新闻发布会上，阿西亚玛表示，当前通胀风险已明显减弱，实际利率仍处于较高水平，因此具备进一 步刺激经济活动的条件。他强调，央行的外部账户状况已显著改善，使政策决策更具灵活性。 阿西亚玛 ...

固收 信用：年末或有一定波动 20251125 摘要 摊余成本债基转向信用债投资，尤其集中在 3-5 年期普信债，推动信用 利差压缩至年内新低，但需考虑国开债切券的影响，实际利差空间已不 大。 摊余成本债基建仓仍在进行中，预计将持续支撑 3-5 年期信用债表现至 12 月底或明年 1 月，但二永债受流动性和定价逻辑影响，其比价未来大 概率回落。 12 月份市场波动性可能增加，历史数据显示四季度信用利差压降受政策 影响显著，今年年初至今利差已大幅压缩，需警惕流动性扰动。 当前信用债市场面临政策预期和资金面波动的不利因素，利差压降空间 有限，广普利率下行是关键，但年内整体利率下行难度较大。 短期信用债抗波动能力弱，性价比不高；中长期信用债虽有摊余成本债 基支撑，但需谨慎；超长期限信用债可考虑止盈，博弈未来货币政策宽 松。 若未来货币政策宽松，5 年以上中长期信用债或有反应，而 5 年以内中 短期信用债因已处低位，跟随速度可能较慢，压缩空间有限。 二永债比价优势明显，未来货币政策宽松或摊余成本建仓结束后，比价 回落可能带来收益，在票息和抗波动能力上优于 3-5 年普信债。 展望四季度末及 2026 年初，我们认为 ...

Crypto Interest Rates. Photo by BeInCrypto The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.25% from 2.5%, following the conclusion of the November monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.  The decision will be announced at 01:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and followed by RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby’s press conference at 02:00 GMT. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) will likely experience a big reaction to the central bank’s policy announ ...

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a slow downward trend, with overall inflation remaining stable and limited transmission effects from tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data from Harvard's Pricing Lab indicates that the price increase of Chinese goods imported to the US has been limited, even after tariff hikes [1] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%, further diminishing the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - There is a potential concern regarding rising electricity prices due to significant investments in the AI industry, which may affect the US CPI [1] Labor Market Insights - The US is currently in a government shutdown, leading to a lack of official economic data, with reliance on private statistics like the ADP report [2] - The latest ADP data shows a rebound in job creation to over 40,000 in October, but this is still below the previous average of over 100,000, indicating a weak labor market [2] - The stable inflation and weakening labor market create conditions for potential monetary policy easing, with expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] China-US Trade Relations - Despite the recent reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods, China still faces significant tariff pressures, with its goods having the highest tariff rates among countries exporting to the US as of July [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing a diverging trend compared to the US, with stable high growth in exports, social financing, and industrial value added, while retail sales and fixed asset investment face uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to decline further, potentially falling between 4.4% and 4.6% [5] - The impact of previous economic stimulus measures is leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power, with some sectors experiencing negative sales growth [5] Inflation and Price Trends - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "bottoming out and recovery" in inflation, influenced by base effects, with gold's rising weight in the CPI contributing to this trend [6] - Gold's weight in the CPI has increased to 4%, indicating its significant impact on overall inflation metrics [6] - Core CPI is projected to remain stable between 0.5% and 1.6% [6] Social Financing Trends - Social financing growth is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the year due to a lack of large-scale debt issuance compared to the previous year [7] - The recent discussions from the Fourth Plenary Session indicate a cautious approach to economic policy, with no expectation of large-scale stimulus measures [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Developments - There has been a noticeable decrease in fiscal bond issuance in October, with expectations for a potential rebound in November or December [8] - The government has implemented incremental policies to address the economic downturn, including the issuance of local government bonds [8] - Policy-oriented financial tools have been fully utilized to counter economic pressures, with a focus on supporting key sectors [9] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a narrow fluctuation pattern, with potential for policy-driven movements in early next year [10] - The ten-year government bond is highlighted as a stable investment option, suitable for both long-term allocation and short-term trading strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower deposit rates in response to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve under its new chairman, with predictions of a decrease from the current 2% to below 1.5% by the second half of next year [1] Group 1 - Salman Ahmed, the head of global macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, anticipates that the ECB will cut rates two to three times [1] - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and his successor is expected to lead a shift towards looser monetary policy [1] - Ahmed maintains a bullish outlook on the euro, predicting it could rise to 1.25 against the dollar, significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.1545 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for the easing to materialize in the short term, and it is unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid upward movement. It is still in the stage of oscillating and accumulating energy. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of laying out at low levels. In the short term, it is currently in a data vacuum period, and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is highly cautious. The bond market may show a slight recovery, mainly depending on the capital situation and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax payment period this week, the capital situation may further ease, and the central bank's bond - buying may boost market sentiment. Coupled with the adjustment of risk assets, it is expected to boost risk - aversion sentiment [11][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: After the tax payment period, the capital situation has loosened. With the short - term news being calm, the market may be waiting for policy guidance from the December meetings. Treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations across the board and closed slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities showed narrow - range fluctuations. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.813%, up 0.05bp [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank capital situation loosened. There were 283 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 538.7 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating a further alleviation of capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day rate rose 2.96bp to 1.47%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.62% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Domestic News**: The issuance of treasury bonds has entered a dense period. On November 24, the Ministry of Finance tendered and issued 97 billion yuan of book - entry coupon - bearing treasury bonds and 60 billion yuan of book - entry discounted treasury bonds. On November 26, two short - term treasury bonds will be issued. The Ministry of Finance will continue to pre - issue the new local government debt quota for 2026. As of November 23, the total scale of new special bonds issued by local governments this year has reached approximately 4.2315 trillion yuan, and the issuance progress of new special bonds has reached 96% [13] - **International News**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled interest rate cuts, and the market's bet on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has exceeded 50%. The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae has approved the largest - scale additional expenditure since the pandemic, with a general account expenditure of 17.7 trillion yen (112 billion US dollars) and a total stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures, including trading data such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume of different contracts on November 24, as well as information on the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different maturities and varieties [6] - **Money Market**: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and the average FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced a rebound, with total trading volume slightly increasing to 1.82 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, but the spending release from the TGA account will take time, and there are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] - The market lacks strong catalysts for further upward movement in the short term, with a potential acceleration in rotation speed [1] U.S.-China Relations - President Xi Jinping and President Trump had a phone call on November 24, indicating a stable and positive trend in U.S.-China relations since the Busan meeting [2] - The call reflects a shift towards a more normalized communication mechanism between the two countries, with a willingness to translate consensus into practical cooperation [2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November [2] - This marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, supporting credit growth and economic stability [2] Energy Sector - As of the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [3] - Solar power capacity grew by 43.8% year-on-year, while wind power capacity increased by 21.4%, indicating accelerated progress in renewable energy adoption [3] - However, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 260 hours year-on-year, suggesting a continued loose power supply-demand balance [3] Stock Market Performance - On November 25, the A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.53% [4] - The communication, media, and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while defense and transportation sectors saw slight declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 1.826 trillion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin trading balance decreased [5]