今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为72.05%，减1.11%；焦炭日均产量63.00万吨，减0.98万吨； 焦炭库存91.10万吨，增3.78万吨；炼焦煤总库存1036.29万 吨，减1.01万吨；焦煤可用天数12.4天，增0.18天。评：供应 端，产地部分前期换工作面的煤矿恢复生产，但随着完成年度 任务减产的煤矿继续增加，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭 产量小幅回落，中下游按需采购为主，上游煤矿累库放缓。整 体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回 升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加 大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 【短评-白银】美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示， 与古尔斯比观点一致，当前仍存在充足的降息空间。特朗普希 望美联储主席能够作出独立判断，特朗普助手们将在佛罗里达 讨论住房政策，预计很快将在新年宣布"重大"住房计划。 评：目前关于未来降息的分歧有所加强，但是对政府的各种刺 激政策的预期增加，提振风险偏好。降息预期对贵金属存在支 撑，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑。关注黄金波动 对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling to varying degrees. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. The domestic economic data in November continued to be weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November showed a slowdown, but the market's confidence in the data was affected by the government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased. The market trading activity declined compared with last week [8]. - In November, the external demand in the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December set a positive tone. Next year, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be loose, but the market still has differences on the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the market lacks incremental information, and the interest rate may continue to fluctuate [8]. - The real - estate sector dragged down the overall fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased slightly, and the real - estate sector remained at a low level. The production declined, and the differentiation between upstream and downstream enterprises became more serious. The policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to be continuously strengthened, which is expected to drive the growth of the consumer market [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures fell by 0.10%. A - share major indices generally declined, and the four stock - index futures showed differentiated performance. The domestic economic data in November was weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November had credibility issues due to the government shutdown. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased, and the market trading activity declined. Allocation suggestion: Buy on dips [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.04%, with a weekly change of - 0.07BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.14%. In November, the external demand improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The policies in December were positive, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, but there were differences in the market regarding the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the interest rate may continue to fluctuate. Allocation suggestion: Range trading [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 1.50%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.43%. With the strengthening of crude oil and gold, the commodity index is expected to further strengthen. Attention should be paid to the US CPI and PCE data released on Friday. Allocation suggestion: Wait - and - see [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.19%. The weak non - farm payrolls report, lower - than - expected CPI inflation data, and the dovish stance of FOMC officials support the Fed's loose policy path. The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts will suppress the US dollar index. The Bank of Japan's tendency to turn hawkish and the European Central Bank's wait - and - see attitude will support the euro and the yen in the short term. Allocation suggestion: Cautious wait - and - see [8]. Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real - estate market, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year. It will also focus on preventing and resolving financial risks [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's Williams said the current policy stance was appropriate; Trump's new policy may weaken US AI regulation; multiple Fed officials expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate cuts; Europe proposed to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with real - estate investment falling by 15.9%. In November, the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year and decreased by 0.42% month - on - month [12]. - **US**: In November, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year [11][17]. - **EU**: The eurozone's industrial output in October increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.2 [17]. - **UK**: The November unemployment rate was 4.39%, the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the central bank interest rate was cut to 3.75% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - On December 22, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate and the UK's Q3 GDP annual growth rate final value will be released. - On December 24, 2025, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 will be released. - On December 25, 2025, Japan's November unemployment rate will be released [78].

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行于12月18日作出降息决定，这一举措进一步强化了市场的预期：英国央行 正迈入一个更为持久的宽松周期。在当前经济动能持续走弱的背景下，高盛仍预测该行在2026年会多次 降息。高盛在研究报告中指出，预计英国央行将分别于3月、6月、9月各下调利率25个基点。 尽管当前市场对降息路径的定价呈现出较为渐进的态势，但高盛认为，倘若后续公布的数据持续印证上 述趋势，那么英国央行降息的力度或许会超出投资者的预期。该行表示，疲弱的经济活动数据将使政策 制定者更有底气、更倾向于采取鸽派立场，尤其是在通胀预期依然保持锚定的情形之下。 12月实施的降息举措，标志着英国央行政策叙事方向发生了转变，这表明，其风险平衡的天平已从应对 持续通胀问题，转向助力经济增长。不过，政策制定者预计仍会秉持数据依赖原则，密切留意工资变动 情况、服务领域通胀走势以及更为广泛的金融环境状况。 总体而言，高盛的最新预测凸显市场愈发确信英国央行的紧缩阶段已彻底结束，接下来的挑战在于如何 校准降息的节奏与幅度，以适应英国经济走弱的现实。 从市场视角看，英国央行政策前景的动态演变，将影响英国利率走势、英镑汇率表现以及相对货币政策 差异格 ...

尽管降息落地符合市场普遍预期，但5:4的投票结果仍引发广泛关注。Premier Miton分析师尼尔·伯雷尔 指出："考虑到当前的经济压力和通胀缓解，问题在于降息幅度是否足够大。"他同时强调，如此接近的 投票结果"尚不清楚是否代表英国央行的普遍观点"。 St James's Place首席经济学家赫塔尔·梅赫塔表示，近期一系列描绘英国经济黯淡前景的数据已逐步降低 降息门槛，"因此看到投票分歧依然未变，多少有些令人惊讶"。 市场预期后移英镑承压 英国央行于当地时间12月18日宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%。这是该行自2024年8月以来的第 五次降息，亦是2025年内的第四次。此次决定以货币政策委员会5票赞成、4票反对的微弱多数通过。 根据公开声明，英国央行指出通胀已显著回落，并预计将在短期内更快趋近2%的政策目标。同时，声 明强调，"未来是否进一步放松货币政策将更加难以判断"，反映出决策层在经济增长疲软与通胀粘性之 间的审慎权衡。 经济数据支撑宽松转向 近期多项经济指标为降息提供了依据。消费者物价指数（CPI）低于预期，招聘活动放缓，失业风险上 升，工资增长压力有所缓解。法兴银行伦敦分行企业研究、外汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations of 3.1%, indicating a notable slowdown in inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The release of the CPI data led to immediate reactions in the forex and bond markets, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) dropping approximately 20 points and non-U.S. currencies strengthening [1]. - The euro against the dollar (EUR/USD) saw a sharp increase of nearly 30 points, while the dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) fell close to 40 points, reaching a low of 155.35 [1]. - U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant boost, with bond prices rising and the two-year Treasury yield dropping over 3 basis points to 3.452% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The CPI data's unexpected decline contrasted sharply with pre-release market expectations, which had already partially priced in the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts [2]. - Professional institutions highlighted the temporary nature of the CPI slowdown, attributing it to factors such as government shutdown delays and holiday promotions, warning of potential inflation rebound risks in December [2]. - Retail traders focused on short-term trading opportunities, interpreting the CPI data as a bearish signal for the dollar and discussing the potential for further gains in non-U.S. currencies, particularly the euro and yen [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The ability of non-U.S. currencies like the euro to capitalize on the dollar's short-term weakness will depend on their economic growth dynamics and policy flexibility [5]. - Market participants are advised to remain cautious of liquidity risks and potential volatility as year-end approaches, as well as the impact of central bank officials' statements on inflation and economic assessments [4]. - The sustainability of the U.S. inflation decline and the evolution of supply-side cost pressures from tariff discussions will be critical in determining future market trends [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 贵金属价格持续走强，主力合约沪银2602昨日收于15521元/千克，涨幅3.44%，日减仓2.56万手；主力 合约沪金2602昨日收于980.50元/克，日减仓372手。 贵金属近期表现仍沿宽松主线演绎：12月美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。美联 储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，逐次会议将依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但 非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性 区间上端，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。整体看，降息时点不确定性对于贵金属的价格利空正逐步出 清。此外，除了12月预期内的降息之外，每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划可能推动对于边际上更 加宽松货币政策的预期，或是推动近期贵金属价格走强的主要因素之一。 基本面看，白银现货仍偏向 紧张；尽管LBMA白银库存略有回升，但SLV白银ETF实物持仓仍使得可交割 ...

新华财经北京12月18日电英国央行（BoE）货币政策委员会（MPC）18日在年内最后一次议息会议上以5-4的微弱多数票通过决议，将基准利率从4%下调25 个基点至3.75%。这是英国央行2025年以来的第四次降息，符合市场普遍预期，背后是通胀超预期回落与经济增长疲软的双重推动。不过英国央行明确表 态，未来将延续"逐步降息"路径，宽松空间将高度依赖通胀与劳动力市场数据，本轮降息周期或接近尾声。 决议核心细节利率调整与投票分歧：MPC以5票赞成、4票反对的结果通过降息提案，行长贝利投下关键赞成票，扭转了投票格局。4名反对委员认为，当前 3.2%的通胀率仍高于2%的目标，过早降息可能固化通胀粘性。 11月英国CPI同比涨幅降至3.2%，创下八个月来新低，较10月的3.6%显著回落，且低于央行此前3.4%的预测。食品价格下降、"黑色星期五"服装促销是主要 拖累因素，核心通胀同步降至3.2%，显示物价压力持续消退。 截至10月的三个月内，英国失业率升至5.1%，为2021年初以来最高；10月GDP连续第二个月收缩，服务业就业与新订单同步下滑，企业投资意愿受财政政 策不确定性抑制。 私营部门薪资增长持续降温，当前三个月均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates to their lowest level in nearly three years, providing a boost to UK households ahead of Christmas and indicating that inflation has cooled enough to allow for further policy easing in 2026 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5 to 4 to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, marking the first rate cut since August [1][2]. - This decision comes after the committee did not take any action in the previous two meetings [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a decline in economic growth, the labor market, and price pressures, leading to a shift in stance from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey towards supporting market expectations for policy easing [1][2]. - The inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to an eight-month low, prompting the Bank to forecast that inflation will be "closer" to the 2% target by spring next year [1][2]. Future Outlook - The committee indicated that evidence suggests borrowing costs will continue to decrease next year, but future rate cuts will require careful consideration as the Bank approaches neutral interest rates [1][2]. - Governor Bailey stated that while rates are expected to gradually decline, subsequent cuts will face more challenging decisions after each reduction [1][2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the British pound and ten-year UK government bond yields recovered from previous declines, with the two-year bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 3.74% and the ten-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 4.49% [1][2]. - The exchange rate for the pound against the dollar remained stable around 1.3383 [1][2].

英国央行将基准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%，符合市场预期，此前该行暂停了自2024年8月以来每季度降息一次的节奏。 英国央行表示，CPI通胀自上次会议以来已下降至3.2%。尽管高于2%目标，但预计短期内将更快回落至目标。反映出限制性货币政策，且与经济增 长放缓和劳动力市场松动的证据相符，工资增长和服务价格通胀持续缓和。 英国央行还表示，货币政策进一步宽松的程度将取决于通胀前景的演变。自2024年8月以来，银行利率已下调150个基点，政策的限制性有所下降。 根据当前证据，银行利率很可能继续以逐步下降的趋势。但关于进一步政策宽松的判断将变得更加激烈。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have surpassed historical records, reaching over $66.80 per ounce, marking one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025, driven by ongoing market dynamics [1] - The current surge in silver prices is supported by a structural shortage in the global silver market for the fifth consecutive year, limited mining output, and increasing demand from renewable energy and electronics sectors [1] - Expectations of global monetary policy easing and declining real yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, attracting institutional investors seeking asset diversification and inflation hedging, creating a rare resonance between industrial and investment demand [1] Price Trends - Silver has reached its long-term target's minimum threshold, with potential for further increases, ideally targeting $75 to $80, contingent on year-end market performance [3] - Silver prices have increased nearly 4% to $66.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $66.87, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 129%, significantly outpacing gold's 65% rise [3] Market Dynamics - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve and the succession of its chairperson are significant variables affecting gold prices, with potential political interference raising concerns about the Fed's independence [4] - The dollar's performance is closely linked to global central bank policies, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 9.5%, the largest annual drop since 2017, providing support for gold prices [5] - Upcoming decisions from multiple central banks, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are anticipated to further influence the dollar's exchange rate and, consequently, gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - Current silver market trends indicate an upward price trajectory, with support around $65.00 and a bullish outlook based on technical indicators [9] - Suggested trading strategies include positioning for long trades near the $65.00 support level, with stop-loss at $64.30 and profit targets between $68.60 and $69.00 [9]