Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the improvement of macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.0% increase from May 30, while LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - The report highlights that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may continue to suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are noted, alongside a weakening demand risk due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic market entering a low-demand season [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7.3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 10.7% [2]. - As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons as of June 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.4% [2]. Supply - The report notes that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton as of June 6, 2025, indicating a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week, but remains at a low level historically [3]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,388 RMB/ton as of June 6, 2025, reflecting an increase of 435 RMB/ton from May 30 [2][3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025 [3][4]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a 2% year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][4]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 18% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 6.7% [4]. - As of June 6, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 204,000 lots, reflecting a significant increase and indicating strong market interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand. It recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the improvement in macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, up 1.0% from May 30, and LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% from May 30. The report notes that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are increasing, and demand risks are present as export stocking effects weaken and the domestic market enters a low season. However, copper prices are expected to gradually rise following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 11%. As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week. Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons, down 0.4% week-on-week. LME copper global inventory was 132,000 tons, down 10.7% week-on-week, and SMM copper social inventory was 149,000 tons, up 7.3% week-on-week [2][25]. Supply - The report indicates that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week. In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year. The report also highlights that the domestic copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [3][49][70]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025. The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand. Additionally, the report mentions that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2% in household air conditioning production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][79][98]. Futures - As of June 6, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 18% week-on-week, and COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7%. The SHFE copper active contract position was 204,000 lots, reflecting a 18% increase from the previous week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions reached 24,000 lots, up 6.7% week-on-week [4][33]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates was 98.2%. The U.S. dollar index was at 99.2031, down 0.24% from the previous week. The report also provides insights into U.S. inflation rates and employment statistics, indicating a stable economic environment that could influence copper demand [4][38].

1、本周市场回顾：铜价高位横盘 截至6月5日国内1#电解铜现货价格为78385元/吨，较上期下跌140元/吨，跌幅为0.18%，周均价为78410元/吨，较上期环比 跌幅0.04%。 影响本周价格的主因：一、宏观方面，美国5月ADP就业人数仅为3.7万人，创2023年3月以来新低，与此同时，美联储褐 皮书显示，近期美国经济活动略有下滑，劳动力需求减弱，疲软的劳动力市场和经济数据或使美联储加快降息步伐，美指 持续低位；另外，全球贸易政策仍存较多不确定性，总体来看短期消息面对铜价指引有限。二、供需基本面，本周现货市 场到货略有增多，分品质来看，差平占多数，因西北某厂新开一条铜杆产线，对外发货有所减少，故好铜相对偏少；需求 端来看，淡季特征表现明显，终端订单表现不佳，且铜价高位震荡，下游工厂谨慎观望居多，仅维持刚需采购。升贴水方 面来看，差平资源下跌较多，好铜相对抗跌；库存方面，端午假期有小幅累库，加之需求表现疲软，故库存较上周小幅上 升。 3、下周市场展望：承压运行 下周来看，市场预计经济有放缓可能，美指或维持低位震荡；国内方面主要关注各类稳增长经济措施的推进情况。二、基 本面来看，TC加工费继续走低，但目前仅有 ...

期货热点追踪 铜价强势走高，谁在推波助澜？未来价格涨势能否延续？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 刚果铜矿遭遇洪水冲击，分析师估计今年可能损失8.4万至27.5万吨的铜产量，铜价还能保持上涨势头 吗？ 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve, leading to a potential rise in copper prices. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the stocking effect in response to tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal lull. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain volatile, with a gradual increase expected following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In April, copper scrap imports were 168,000 metric tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year. Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 796,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2][49]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3][77]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9%. As of May 29, 2025, SMM copper social inventory was 139,000 tons, down 0.9% [2][25]. Futures Market Summary - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7.3% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to rise in 2025. Recommended companies include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with Minmetals Resources as a company to watch [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which continues to suppress copper price increases [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,790 RMB/ton, down 0.4% from May 16, while the LME copper closing price was 9,614 USD/ton, up 1.76% [1][17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory continues to rise, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking against tariffs and the seasonal downturn in demand [1]. - The operating rate of cable enterprises remains above 80%, with production of air conditioners expected to continue growing in June and July [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 780,000 tons, down 4.8% from the previous week [2][49]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.4% [2][25]. - Global inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, up 4.7% from the previous week [2]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price reached a new low of -44.30 USD/pound as of May 23, 2025, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16 [3][63]. - The electrolytic copper production in China for April 2025 was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year [68]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 11% week-on-week, with a total position of 152,000 lots as of May 23, 2025 [4][33]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position decreased by 2.2% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending specific companies for investment [4][5].

据外媒报道，在阿塞拜疆从事黄金、白银和铜矿开采的英国盎格鲁亚洲矿业公司(Anglo-AsianMining Plc.)表示，Gilar矿已经开始生产。该矿是阿塞拜疆Gedabek矿场的一部分。该公司的目标是每年开采 2000吨左右矿石，随着运营增加，月度产量目标为5-6万盎司。 据外媒报道，加拿大Ivanhoe Mines周二表示，由于地震活动，公司已暂停刚果（金）Kakula铜矿地下开 采作业。 一、行情回顾 昨日夜盘，沪铜期货震荡走弱，主力2506合约收于77770元/吨，跌幅0.42%。 二、基本面汇总 三、机构观点 冠通期货：整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，铜价有所承压，基本面方面，需求端边际走弱， 但目前社会库存仍处于低位水平，供应端偏紧预期依然存在，铜价呈现震荡上行趋势，但临近需求旺季 尾声，虽有国内增量政策提振，但目前呈现强预期弱现实状态，整体依然承压，需持续关注美联储降息 概率及中美关税政策情况。 广州期货：宏观面，地缘政治紧张情绪急剧升温，黄金上涨提振铜价。当前美国制造业和就业数据暂 稳，叠加贸易战缓和，衰退风险减弱，但整体经济仍处于持续走弱态势中，对于铜价仍有压制。基本 面，当前铜矿 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜震荡偏强，主力合约重回牛熊线上方，日内主要是受到美元走弱和最大消费 国中国出台刺激措施带来支撑，不过国内期现价差受到进口货源以及仓单流出冲 击，现货升水坍塌，日内现货升水跌 115 至 275，盘面近月价差降至 290，现货进 口亏损扩大至 450 附近，海外库存延续 LME 下降而 COMEX 增加，总库存依旧在 32 万吨附近，短期内外现货市场转宽松对铜价的支撑有所弱化。不过近期市场在传 闻年中冶炼厂加工费谈判，从目前消息来看下半年 ...

【沪铜本周重心下移，多因素影响其走势】5 月 20 日，中国央行1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下调 10 个基 点，释放稳增长信号。 美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次，周末穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，美 国数据及信用评级双下滑，市场避险情绪再起，铜价承压。 供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大放缓，实质性减产尚未推 进。预计废铜将继续大量进入国内。 2025 年 4 月我国进口精炼铜 30.02 万吨，累计同比-1.83%，4 月出 口精炼铜 5.31 万吨，累计同比+216.38%。 库存端，上期所铜库存周内低位反弹，美铜继续大幅增加库 存。 需求端，下游需求边际走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万吨，涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季，预计表观消费量减少。 2025 年 1-4 月乘用车累计销量 687.2 万辆，同比增 7.9%。政策等因素促市场超预期增长，削弱季度周期波动。 整 体来看，市场预期不确定，铜价承压，基本 ...