Core Viewpoint - Despite signs of weak demand, copper prices are expected to remain strongly supported in the coming year due to supply concerns driven by major mine shutdowns and significant copper shipments to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Trends - On Monday, LME copper futures reached a record high of $11,771 per ton [1] - The forecast for average copper prices next year is $12,780 per ton [1] Group 2: Demand Projections - China's copper demand growth is expected to slow from 4% this year to 2% by 2026, with declines in consumption from key sectors such as air conditioning and electric vehicles [1] - Strong growth in demand for energy storage systems and the continued expansion of data centers are anticipated to support copper prices [1]

近期，在宏观流动性预期支撑、供应短缺预期强烈、库存引发"挤仓"忧虑的提振下，沪铜主力合约价格 持续攀升，突破了90000元／吨关口。在当前铜价处于历史新高的背景下，市场正面临短期支撑松动与 长期逻辑的严峻考验。 高铜价抑制需求释放 全球铜矿供应延续偏紧格局 面对历史性负加工费的局面，中国冶炼行业计划通过主动减产进行应对。中国铜原料联合谈判小组 （CSPT）近期达成决议，计划自2026年起将矿铜产能负荷至少下调10%，以扭转扭曲的原料供需结 构，并维护基准计价体系。 尽管面临成本压力，国内电解铜产量短期仍呈现增长。据SMM数据，11月国内精炼铜产量为110.31万 吨，环比增长1.05%，增长主因是粗铜供应阶段性宽松及部分检修影响低于预期。进入12月，原定11月 减产的某冶炼厂因硫酸收益较高及出口需求维持生产，检修推迟至12月进行，其影响预计在2026年1月 体现。当月另有4家冶炼厂计划检修，涉及粗炼、精炼产能各75万吨，预计影响产量0.5万吨。由于部分 冶炼厂统计周期延长，加上前期检修产能基本恢复，预计12月国内精炼铜产量将环比增加6.57万吨，至 116.88万吨。然而，进口市场反映了内外供需的失衡，10月 ...

报告摘要 本周小结：矿端短缺+美国以外地区低库存，看好铜价继续上行 截至2025年12月5日，SHFE铜收盘价92780 元/吨，环比11月28日+6.12%；LME铜收盘价11665 美元/吨， 环比11月28日+4.38%。12月3日LME注销仓单库存达5.7万吨（占LME总库存35%），引发市场对于美国以 外地区低库存的担忧；嘉能可当日将2026年铜产量指引中枢下调9万吨，显示铜矿扰动增强；线缆企业开 工率在铜价维持高位背景下连续回升5周，Q4电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4空调排产同比下降，但环比改 善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-8.4%，LME铜库存环比+2% （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月5日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存75.0 万吨，环比上周+3.7%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至2025年12月1日，全球三大交易所库存合计67.6 万吨，环比11月24日+1.0%。 截至2025年12月4日，LME铜全球库存16.3 万吨，环比+2.0%；SMM铜社会库存15.9 万吨，环比11月27 日-8.4%。 供给：10月中国铜矿产量环比-8%、同比-12% ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-12-8 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价涨势明显 短期警惕回调 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约走势比较强，周一和周五都有比较大幅的 上行，尤其是周五单日涨幅有 2.19%，收于 92780 元/吨，较前一周约+6.12%。 主要原因是特朗普点名鸽派人选凯文哈赛特作为美联储主席候选人，ADP 新 增就业也低于预期，市场对 12 月降息预期回升至 87%，并且持续看好 2026 年降息周期的铜行情。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供需方面，中国主要铜冶炼企业与智利矿商安托法加斯塔的铜精矿加工 费年度谈判进行中，消息称其首轮报价为-15 美元/吨和-1.5 美分/磅，但中国 铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）此前达成 2026 年度降低矿铜产能负荷 10%以 上的共识，因此意向价格仍为正值。若冶炼企业落实减产，将削弱铜精矿需 求，有望扭转加工费下行趋势，对铜价有支撑。国内方面，12 月部分规模型 企业为完成年度目标可能小幅提升排产，但中小企业受制于资金与订单压力， 可能提前减产或停工，对整体开工率产生拖累。SMM 预计 12 月开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91400，基差-1380，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月5日铜库存减275至162550吨，上期所铜库存较上周减9025吨至88905吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 强势运行为主 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 每日观点 铜: 全球 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: December 5, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of a high - level correction. Supply shortages and macro - economic positives support prices, but high prices suppress actual demand. Attention should be paid to the battle at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark [4][5] - Fundamental factors include a significant outflow of copper inventory from LME Asian warehouses and US stockpiling needs, which exacerbate regional shortages and push up prices; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 87%, with a weaker US dollar and expectations of loose liquidity supporting the financial attributes of copper prices; domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased, downstream buyers show obvious high - price aversion, with weak restocking willingness and light spot transactions; refined copper processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in the operating rates of copper rod and strip enterprises, dragging down demand [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - **Prices and Changes**: - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 92,780 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.12% - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 92,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.12% - The latest price of International Copper is 83,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.87% - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 11,434 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.61% - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 536.2 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 3.86% [6] - **Positions and Changes**: - The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 236,494 lots, with a weekly increase of 18,237 lots - The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 653,661 lots, with a weekly increase of 107,150 lots - The position of International Copper is 5,499 lots, with a weekly increase of 4,210 lots - The position of LME Copper 3 - month is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots - The position of COMEX Copper is 141,978 lots, with a weekly increase of 7,685 lots [6] - **Trading Volume**: - The trading volume of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 188,062 lots - The trading volume of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 402,980 lots - The trading volume of International Copper is 11,403 lots - The trading volume of LME Copper 3 - month is 24,540 lots - The trading volume of COMEX Copper is 42,574 lots [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - **Spot Prices**: - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper is 91,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,185 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.79% - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaotrade is 91,400 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,040 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.62% - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 91,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3,980 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.55% - The latest price of Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 91,540 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,100 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.69% [10][11] - **Spot Premiums**: - Shanghai Non - Ferrous premium is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 54.55% - Shanghai Wumaotrade premium is 110 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 69.23% - Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 33.33% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous premium is 155 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 40 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 34.78% - LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 50.44 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 33.88 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 204.59% - LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 234.51 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 68.26 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 41.06% [11] 3.3 Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - **Copper Import Profit and Loss**: The latest value is - 1,227.97 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 367.03 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 42.63% [12] - **Copper Concentrate TC**: The latest value is - 42.7 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.55 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 1.3% [12] - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The latest value is 4.1251, with a weekly increase of 0.0734 and a weekly increase rate of 1.81% [12] - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: The latest value is 5,510.64 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,966.81 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 55.5% [12] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventories in China**: - SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 30,936 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,308 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 12.22% - International Copper warehouse receipts total 4,929 tons, with a weekly decrease of 573 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 10.41% - SHFE Copper inventory is 88,905 tons, with a weekly decrease of 9,025 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 9.22% [18] - **LME Copper Inventory**: - LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 98,500 tons, with a weekly decrease of 52,600 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 34.81% - LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 64,325 tons, with a weekly increase of 58,250 tons and a weekly increase rate of 958.85% - LME Copper inventory is 162,825 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.59% [18][20] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: - COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 251,509 tons, with a weekly increase of 57,173 tons and a weekly increase rate of 29.42% - COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 184,322 tons, with a weekly decrease of 39,008 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 17.47% - COMEX Copper inventory is 435,831 tons, with a weekly increase of 18,165 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.35% [20] - **Other Inventories**: - Copper mine port inventory is 67.4 million tons, with a weekly increase of 7.8 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 13.09% - Social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - **Refined Copper Production**: In October 2025, the monthly production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [23] - **Copper Products Production**: In October 2025, the monthly production was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The cumulative production from January to October was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [23] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - **Copper Rod Capacity Utilization**: - The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods in October 2025 was 56.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.35% - The capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods in October 2025 was 24.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.69% [25] - **Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips in October 2025 was 63.84%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [25] - **Copper Bar Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of copper bars in October 2025 was 50.13%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [25] - **Copper Tube Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October 2025 was 52.57%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.63% [25] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - **Copper Concentrate Imports**: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 2.451487 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 25.098307 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [28] - **Anode Copper Imports**: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 55,239 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 633,067 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [28] - **Cathode Copper Imports**: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 279,944 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 2,817,921 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [28] - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 196,607 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 1,895,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [28] - **Copper Products Imports**: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 4,460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [28]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of global mining supply disruptions as a key factor supporting copper prices, while demand from sectors like new energy, electricity, and electronics provides medium to long-term momentum for prices [1] Industry Summary - The industry reports generally expect copper prices to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with short-term price fluctuations likely driven by unexpected supply-side events [1] - The company will continue to closely monitor changes in global supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic policy trends, and technological advancements in the industry [1] - The company aims to manage costs and inventory prudently to seize opportunities during industry cycles and create value for shareholders [1]

铜价延续走强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开高走，日内上涨，全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后， 计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏紧预期将有缓 解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12 月铜国 内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼厂依靠副产品 及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万 吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买兴下降， 铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的减少。LME 铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，提振铜乐观预期，且美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万 人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，降息预期再度增长，美元下挫，支撑金属价格上涨， 且前期国内产业端反内卷呼声影响冶炼端后续产量的增减情况，铜价再度上涨，目前国 内宏观乐观预期强，多重因素刺激沪铜攀升，但目前高价下，现货成交转弱，谨慎高位 回调。 【冠通期货研 ...

与市场的乐观情绪相悖，高盛集团试图抑制对铜价破纪录涨势的热情，称铜价突破每吨1.1万美元的涨 势不太可能持续，因为全球供应依然充足。 在本周对客户的报告中，以Aurelia Waltham为首的高盛分析师们认为，近期铜价上涨的核心原因是"对 未来市场供应紧张的预期，而非当前基本面因素"，并补充称他们预计当前价格水平难以持续。 展望未来，高盛表示，预计至少到2029年以前不会出现全球性铜短缺，因为预计今年需求仍将比供应少 约50万吨。 "需求不佳，供应过剩——但价格却在上涨。这是一种特殊动态，"他表示，甚至预测非美国市场可 能"没有阴极铜。" **消除短缺担忧** 然而，高盛的分析师则持有不同的观点。虽然他们承认正在发生的供应短缺，导致明年上半年铜价预测 走高，但美国以外的"极低"库存可以通过提高地区溢价和收紧LME价差来避免。 "虽然2026年16万吨的小幅度过剩使得市场更趋于平衡，但这意味着我们预计全球铜市场不会很快进入 短缺状态，"他们写道，并补充说，价格明年将"局限于"每吨10,000-11,000美元区间。 铜价长期被看涨的预测最终都未能应验。尽管到2025年之前主要矿场的中断收紧了供应，但尽管清洁能 ...

对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，海外中断矿山复产乏力，LME库存大幅下滑，CSPT明年或将联合减产 10%，国内紧平衡现实将延续，技术上伦铜创下历史新高后将进行确认，预计铜价短期仍将在高位区间 内保持强势。 （文华综合） 沪铜开盘走势平淡，随后行情不断走强，截至收盘主力合约上涨2.19%，期价最高触及92910元，再度 刷新上市高点。目前海外流动性仍偏宽松，且最近市场聚焦矿紧和非美地区库存偏低的矛盾，铜价突破 过后持续走强。 目前铜矿端紧张状况难以缓解，临近年底市场关注国内冶炼厂与海外矿商对明年铜矿长单加工费的谈 判，最近冶炼厂已经在倡导削减明年铜精矿冶炼产能，海外矿商和国内冶炼企业博弈当中。 ...