Core Viewpoints - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2067.0 points, with a closing report of 42045.0 points, reflecting a rise of 2.75% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends, with some expecting further upward movement while others anticipate a return to volatility [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - Jianxin Futures believes that the shipping contract for August still has potential for upward movement, supported by better-than-expected price increases and a recovery in the SCFIS settlement index above 2200 points [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures predicts that the shipping market will shift back to a state of fluctuation, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the extension of tariff exemptions and the potential for a surge in shipping demand before August [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current spot freight rates are stable, which has led to expectations of price increases from shipping companies in early August, contributing to an overall improvement in market sentiment [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a tight supply situation, exacerbated by the anticipated surge in demand due to tariff policies, which may lead to a mixed sentiment regarding the timing of peak freight rates and seasonal declines [2]

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2508 had a closing price of 2012.5 with a 0.31% increase, a base difference of 245.5, trading volume of 25398, and an open interest of 31348 with a decrease of 3709 [1] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1390.0 with a -0.34% decrease, a base difference of 868.0, trading volume of 10290, and an open interest of 29642 with a decrease of 786 [1] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1553.7 with a -1.37% decrease, a base difference of 704.3, trading volume of 2082, and an open interest of 1001 with a decrease of 78 [1] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1353.4 with a -0.38% decrease, a base difference of 904.6, trading volume of 313, and an open interest of 3775 with a decrease of 51 [1] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1190.8 with a 0.40% increase, a base difference of 1067.2, trading volume of 657, and an open interest decrease of 164 [1] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1332.5 with a -0.19% decrease, a base difference of 925.5, trading volume of 100, and an open interest of 430 with a decrease of 6 [1] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 622.5 on the day, compared to 611.5 the previous day [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 163.7 on the day, compared to - 180.6 the previous day [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 200.3 on the day, compared to 216.7 the previous day [1] Group 3: Spot and Index Data - The TEDA index on 2025/7/7 was 2258.04 points, with a 6.35% increase from the previous period and a 9.61% increase the period before that [1] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/4 was 2101 dollars/TEU, with a 3.50% increase from the previous period and a 10.63% increase the period before that [1] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/4 was 1694.3 points, with a 3.27% increase from the previous period and a 3.94% increase the period before that [1] - The NCFI on 2025/7/4 was 1442.46, with a - 0.03% decrease from the previous period and an 11.03% increase the period before that [1] - The TCI on 2025/7/9 was 1019.55, with no change from the previous period and the period before that [1] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the weekly average capacity was 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively [1] - The second - week receiving in July was neutral, with some routes over - booked; the third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August reached 340,000 TEU. The decreasing cargo volume is expected to put pressure on subsequent freight rates [1] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - On Wednesday, MSK's European Line quotation was flat at 2900 US dollars, and MSC's online quotation dropped from 3600 to 3400 US dollars [2] - Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30) [2] - The freight rate in the first half of July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points on the futures market) [2] - Shipping companies' quotations in the second half of July are generally stable. MSK's third - week quotation was flat at 2950 US dollars, and the current quotation range is 2900 - 3500 US dollars, with an average of 3400 US dollars (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market) [2] Group 6: News - According to British media on 7/8, there is only one issue remaining in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. Israel and Hamas still have differences on the status and presence of the Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza, while they have bridged major differences on several other issues [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates, as the shipping volume is gradually entering a downward period while the shipping capacity in the first week of August is as high as 340,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - EC2508 had a previous settlement price of 2006.2, a change of 6.23%, a basis of 251.8, a previous trading volume of 57,664, a previous open interest of 35,057, and an open interest change of 536. Other contracts (EC2510 - EC2606) also have their respective price, spread, volume, and open - interest data [1]. - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 showed different changes compared to the previous days and weeks [1]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Index - The Terdar index on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.35%. SCFI (European Line) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50%. CCFI was 1694.3, up 3.27%. NCFI was 1442.46 points, down 0.03%. TCI on July 8, 2025, remained unchanged at 1019.55 points [1]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The second week of July had neutral cargo intake with no over - booking. The third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August was 340,000 TEU [1]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are currently booking spaces for mid - July (week 28 - 29). The freight rate in early July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). In late July, shipping company quotations were generally stable, with MSK offering a flat rate of 2950 US dollars. The current quotation range is 2950 - 3850 US dollars, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [2].

近期欧线报价情况: 目前下游正预定7月中 (week28-29) 的舱位。 7月上 (week27-28) 运价落地在3380美金左右 (折盘2350点) 。 7月下船司报价总体以持稳为主，其中MSK平开2950美金; 当前报价区间较宽,在2950-3850美金之间，均值3500美金（折盘2500 点）。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收费代 | 涨跌 (%) | 直差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2508 EC2510 | | 1888.5 1350.0 | 2.09 0.60 | રૂ રેત્તે ર 908.0 | | 21083 7 ટેટર | 34521 30278 | -1857 -346 | | | EC2512 | | 1523.9 | 0.72 | 734.1 | | 1166 | ਦ849 | -197 | | | EC2602 | | 1323 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：现货运价震荡，关注新一轮关税 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）MSK月初爆舱可配月中船期；OA线下畅接；PA联盟舱位充裕。 | | | | （2）欧洲月初空班较多，舱位减少，舱位紧张，价格上调。 | | 现货运价 | 中性 | （3）7月上旬报价：整体2900-3600，中枢3200；GEMINI：MSK报价2900-3000，HPL报价3250；OA：CMA报价3450（环比-100），OOCL报价3500， | | | | EMC报价3700。 | | | | （4）7月下旬报价：GEMINI：MSK报价2950，HPL报价3850；OA：CMA报价3950，OOCL报价3500；PA：ONE报价4050。 | | | | 【1】特朗普：计划征收从60%到70%到10%到20%不等的关税。相关国家将于8月1日开始征收关税。 | | | | 【2】特朗普的助手们设想在总统访华期间带上多位企业首席执行官同行。【3】目前，利率期货的价格反映出美联 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market, especially the European route, is being closely monitored with details on EC futures contracts, spot prices, and shipping rates. The increasing weekly average shipping capacity from July to August is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on July 7, 2025, showed declines, with EC2508 at 1849.9 (down 2.48%), EC2510 at 1341.9 (down 1.61%), etc [2] - The volume and open interest of different contracts also varied, with EC2508 having a volume of 47769 and an open interest of 36378 (up 431) [2] - The month - spreads between different contracts, such as EC2508 - 2510 at 508.0, showed changes compared to previous days [2] Spot and Index Data - The spot price on June 30, 2025, was 2123.24, with a 9.61% increase from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 1694.3, up 3.27% from the previous period [2] Shipping Capacity and Rates - The weekly average shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in the third week of July is 320,000 TEU, and the first week of August is 340,000 TEU [2] - The freight rates in the first half of July landed at around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). The shipping company quotes in the second half of July are generally stable, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [3] Related News - On July 7, indirect cease - fire negotiations in Gaza restarted in Doha, Qatar. Trump will meet with Netanyahu on Monday to discuss details of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]

Group 1: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 1896.9 with a 0.71% increase, a volume of 28512, and an open interest of 35947 with a decrease of 388 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1363.9 with a 0.29% decrease, a volume of 8414, and an open interest of 31361 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1538.7 with a 0.70% increase, a volume of 1250, and an open interest of 8 with a decrease of 173 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1338.7 with a 1.02% increase, a volume of 228, and an open interest of 3781 with a decrease of 31 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1172.9 with a 0.11% decrease, a volume of 708, and an open interest of 5782 with an increase of 100 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1319.9 with a 0.76% increase, and an open interest of 371 with an increase of 19 [2] Group 2: Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 month spread was 533.0, with a week - on - week increase of 53.9 [2] - EC2510 - 2512 month spread was - 174.8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.7 [2] - EC2512 - 2602 month spread was 200.0, with a week - on - week increase of 22.2 [2] Group 3: Shipping Freight Indexes - SCHIS updated on Mondays, with a value of 2123.24 on 2025/6/30, a 9.61% increase from the previous period and a 14.11% increase from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 2030 USD/TEU on 2025/6/27, a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a 0.49% decrease from two periods ago [2] - CCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 1640.72 on 2025/6/27, a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI updated on Fridays, with a value of 1442.95 on 2025/6/27, a 11.03% increase from the previous period and a 0.64% decrease from two periods ago [2] - TCI updated daily, with a value of 957.21 on 2025/6/30, a 2.14% increase from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 (tentatively) is 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no congestion. The second and fourth weeks had neutral capacity, while the third week had high capacity, which may suppress freight rates. There was one new sailing cancellation in week 33, and PA&MSC had ship delays [2] Group 5: European Line Quotations - Some shipping companies announced price increases in July. MSK opened at 3400 USD, and others were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD. In the first half of July, some shipping companies cut prices. MSK dropped to 3100 and 2900 USD in the first and second weeks respectively, and the final average price was 3400 USD (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the third week of July, MSK opened at 2900 USD [3] - HPL kept its August quotation at 3640 USD, while CMA announced an increase to 4745 USD [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies; for the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Content Market News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement may impose a 20% tariff on re - export trade, and all short positions have been recommended to stop losses [2]. - As the July 9 deadline for EU - US trade negotiations approaches, EU member states' negotiation stance towards the US has hardened, demanding the US to cancel or significantly reduce tariffs [5]. - Egypt's foreign minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with relevant parties [6]. Freight Indexes - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% [2]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on June 27 showed that the European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on June 27: the composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9%; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2 [2]. - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the Eurozone in June was 0.2 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Conditions - On July 2, the main contract 2508 closed at 1883.5, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 44,200 lots and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 4141 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. For the 2508 contract, short positions can be considered for profit - taking when it rebounds above 2000. Risk - takers can try going long on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

SCFIS(欧线)指数季节性趋势 12000 100000 30 00 405 6000 40 00 2000 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 =2023 2021 = 2022 = -2024 · 202'5 EC远期曲线 EC期货合约价格走势 3500 3000 2500 20000 1500 1000 1200 500 1000 2508 2510 2542 2602 2604 理念价格 2506 20 25/5/14 2025 /5/20 20 25/7/1 月间升贴水 EC2508/2510 EC2506/2508 120% 110% 100% 90% 30% 70% Und Brid 2024 (终后后) erage(正第年份) 2024 (终行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 90% 30% 70% 60% 24 133 3 EC 2506/25 10 2510/25 12 nge(正常年份) 2024 (终行后) rage(正常年份) = 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报 ...