Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2512 futures had a closing price of 1804.0, a decline of 2.16% and a volume of -491.3, with an open interest of 31365 [2][13] - EC2602 futures closed at 1553.6, down 1.86% and -240.9 in volume, open interest was 18455 with a change [2][13] - EC2604 futures closed at 1161.1, down 1.26% and 151.6 in volume, open interest was 14910 with an increase of 450 [2][13] Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 642.9, with a daily decrease of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 21.6 [2][13] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 250.4, down 10.4 daily and up 39.3 weekly [2][13] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 392.5, down 14.6 daily and down 17.7 weekly [2][13] Group 3: Spot Index Data - The SCHIS index was 1312.71 on 2025/10/27, up 15.11% from the previous period [2][13] - The SCFI (European line) was 1344 dollars/TEU on 2025/10/31, up 7.87% from the previous period [2][13] - The CCFI (European line) was 1323.81 on 2025/10/31, up 2.37% from the previous period [2][13] - The NCFI was 965.62 on 2025/10/31, up 17.43% from the previous period [2][13] Group 4: Capacity and Market Analysis - In week 49, two ships were postponed. December's average weekly capacity is 290,000 - 336,000 TEU [2][13] - November's Week 45 - 48 capacity was 310,000, 250,000, 277,000, 325,000 TEU respectively, with more pressure in the second half [2][13] - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while PA alliance lacked goods and led price - cuts [2][13] Group 5: Investment Suggestions - Suggest an overall "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or trading on PA's price - cuts/MSK's price stability [3][14] - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high, and the 02 contract's valuation is hard to determine, expected to follow the 12 contract [3][14] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, suggest a "sell - on - rallies" strategy due to greater supply pressure next year [3][14] Group 6: European Line Quotation - This week, downstream is booking November (week 45) space. In early November, PA cut prices the most to 1700 - 1900 dollars, GEMINJ to 2100 - 2200, OA to 2250 dollars, with an average of about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1430 points) [3][14] Group 7: News - On 10/31, Israel's attacks on Gaza hit the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire has been in place for three weeks but key issues remain unsolved [3][14] - On 11/1, Qatar warned that Gaza may fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation [4][15] - On 11/3, Houthi rebels said they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [4][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. With subsequent price increases and the signing of long - term agreements from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, waiting for a possible decline in November (if the expected decline in the second half of November fails to materialize and causes the market to fall back) [2][13] - The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month [2][13] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Given the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies [2][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1843.8, down 1.45%, with a basis of - 531.1. Yesterday's trading volume was 17,598, and the open interest decreased by 1,792 to 30,114 [2][13] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1583.0, down 1.43%, with a basis of - 270.3. Yesterday's trading volume was 4,555, and the open interest increased by 343 to 16,233 [2][13] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1175.9, down 1.55%, with a basis of 136.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 1,891 [2][13] - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1403.3, down 1.38%, with a basis of - 90.6. Yesterday's trading volume was 96, and the open interest was 1,411 [2][13] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1487.5, down 2.22%, with a basis of - 174.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 119, and the open interest increased by 24 to 1,324 [2][13] - FC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1132.5, down 0.63%, with a basis of 180.2. Yesterday's trading volume was 388, and the open interest increased by 150 to 1,062 [2][13] Month - spread Information - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 667.9, a decrease of 8.7 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was 260.8, a decrease of 4.2 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 407.1, a decrease of 4.5 compared to the previous day [2][13] Index Information - "ટેવાન ટિ": Updated every Monday, announced on October 27, 2025. The current value is 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period and 10.52% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from the period before the previous one [2][13] Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, and the PA alliance led the price reduction [2][13] - In the second half of November, affected by the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships may not be able to return to Shanghai Port in time, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation in November. It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocations [2][13] - The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2][13] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early November (Week 45) [2][13] - In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars [2][13] - In November, shipping companies have announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the market. MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies lowered the prices to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [2][13] News on Price Changes - On Monday, HMM reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HPL to 2335 US dollars, ONE to 2135 US dollars, and MSC to 265 US dollars [2][13] - On Tuesday, MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars, OOCL to 2150 US dollars, and YML reduced the price of a single route to 1900 US dollars [2][13] - On Wednesday, MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU for long - term agreements. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [2][13] - On Thursday, ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the prices of other routes were 2200 - 2300 US dollars [2][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The partial consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations is beneficial to the international trade environment, and the market fluctuates upward, which is in line with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop-loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - After the China-US leaders' meeting in Busan, the bullish sentiment has been gradually digested, and some long positions have taken profits and left the market. Under the game between long and short in the market, the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the situation in the Middle East, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In September, the initial value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom-bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The initial value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The initial value of the eurozone's composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was -9.2, with an expected -2 and a previous value of -3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - In September, the initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, with a final value of 53 in August; the initial value of the service PMI was 53.9, with a final value of 54.5 in August; the initial value of the composite PMI was 53.6, with a final value of 54.6 in August [4]. 3.3 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On October 30, the main contract 2512 closed at 1843.8, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 17,600 lots and an open interest of 30,100 lots, a decrease of 1792 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short-term strategy: The main contract remains weak, while the far-month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-tolerant investors have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop-loss [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long-term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The potential meeting between Chinese and US leaders has led to a positive macro sentiment, driving up the market, which aligns with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend. For the arbitrage strategy, due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [1]. Content Summary by Related Information Freight Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period. On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period, the NCFI (European route) was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, and the NCFI (US West route) was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [1]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, the CCFI (European route) was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, and the CCFI (US West route) was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [1]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [1]. Market and Contract Information - On October 29, the main contract 2512 closed at 1871.0, with a涨幅 of 5.08%, a trading volume of 34,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,900 lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [1]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [1]. Other Information - The Israel Defense Forces announced on October 29 that they had started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement after a series of strikes on "terrorist targets" and "terrorists". China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of RMB 10.30 [1][5]. Core Views - The oil transportation market is expected to continue strengthening due to multiple favorable factors, including increased global oil production and geopolitical events [1][3]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters was RMB 19.31 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to RMB 3.30 billion [1][5]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the fourth quarter, projecting RMB 19.8 billion, which represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of 243.9% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's net profit from oil transportation was RMB 600 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 26.0% [2]. - The average freight rate for VLCC from the Middle East to China increased by 69.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that since August, the global oil tanker market has seen a significant rise in freight rates due to OPEC+ production increases and strong demand for oil imports in China [3]. - The report expects the oil transportation market to remain strong through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, driven by factors such as OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions [3]. Profit Forecasts - The report has raised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 22%, 11%, and 1% respectively, estimating net profits of RMB 5.75 billion, RMB 5.80 billion, and RMB 5.73 billion [5]. - The report indicates that every USD 10,000 increase in VLCC freight rates could add RMB 1.37 billion to the company's annual net profit, highlighting the high profit elasticity of the company [5][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of tariff news and the afternoon MSK surcharge, the Wednesday futures market rose significantly. Affected by the previous congestion at European ports in the second half of November, 4 ships will have difficulty returning to Shanghai in time, which may lead to a tight fundamental situation in November. The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is between $2000 - $2200 (1400 - 1540 points). Currently, the valuation of the December contract is moderately high. Driven by multiple positive factors such as subsequent price increases and long - term agreement signings from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy. The 02 contract is more difficult to value accurately with high uncertainty, and it is expected to follow the trend of the December contract in the next month. The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are $1871.0, $1606.0, $1194.4, and $1422.9 respectively, with daily increases of 4.62%, 3.70%, 2.73%, and 3.56%. The trading volumes are 34539, 8665, 2935, and 1 respectively, and the open interests are 31906, 15885, 14394, and 1410 respectively, with open - interest changes of 3006.8, 1975, 115, and 0 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602 are 676.6 and 265.0 respectively, with month - on - month increases of 51.0 and 25.4, and week - on - week increases of 71.1 and 53.9 [2]. Index Data - **SCFI (European Route)**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is $1246/TEU, with a month - on - month increase of 8.82% and a previous - period increase of 7.21% [2]. - **CCFI (European Route)**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is 1293.12 points, with a month - on - month increase of 1.99% and a previous - period decrease of 1.49% [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is 822.3 points, with a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a previous - period increase of 14.96% [2]. Recent European Route Quotations - **Week 44**: The offline quotations are PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800 [3]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly between $2500 - $2700, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened at $2350, which met expectations, and then shipping companies adjusted the price to between $1900 - $2300, with a central value of $2100 [3]. Shipping Company Price Adjustments - **Monday**: HMM reduced the price to $1900, HPL to $2335, ONE to $2135, and MSC to $2265 [4]. - **Tuesday**: MSK reduced the price to $2200, OOCL to $2150, and YML reduced the price of a single route to $1900 [4]. - **Wednesday**: MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of $300/FEU for long - term agreements, and YML reduced the price of a single route to $1850 [4]. Related News - On October 29, the Israeli military stated that it had resumed the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC主力反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动E C主力反弹 | 影响因素 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货运价 利多 | | 10月下旬马士基报价1800-1900，HPL报价1900、OOCL报价2600，CMA报价2100，EMC报价2050、MSC报价2050，YML报价1350，ONE报价1450；11月 | | | | 上旬HPL报价2500、CMA报价2800，EMC报价2700、MSC报价2550，YML报价1350，ONE报价2550。 | | | | 【1】美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日表示，他已与中国副总理何立峰达成"一项非常实质性的框架协议"，该协议将避免对中国产品征收 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the futures market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but considering the upcoming price increase announcements and the upward momentum during the long - term contract signing season, the strategy of buying on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward fluctuations, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but geopolitical fluctuations also exist. The April contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and show a slightly stronger trend during the peak season from November to January, and positions can be gradually established [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1136.1, 1793.1, 1582.0, 1171.8, and 1374.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.04%, 0.27%, - 0.06%, 0.03%, and 1.59% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 were 21899, 2589, and 1290 respectively, and the trading volume of EC2510 was 932. The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 decreased by 765, 94, 126, and 263 respectively [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 657.0 and 211.1 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 5.3 and 5.7, and week - on - week changes of - 99.2 and 28.4 [1]. Spot Index Data - **Spot Indices and Changes**: As of October 20, 2025, the spot index was 1140.38, up 10.52% from the previous period. The SCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1145 US dollars/TEU, up 7.21% from the previous period. The CCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1267.91, down 1.49% from the previous period. The NCFI (October 17, 2025) was 803.21, up 14.96% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Current Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). The offline quotes for Week 44 are PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 US dollars [2]. - **Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies have announced price increases to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of price support is strong, and the optimistic sentiment persists. The market continues to rise slightly. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 20, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) rose 16.79% to 956.45 points, the SCFIS (European route) rose 10.5% to 1140.38 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 14.96% to 803.21 points, the SCFIS (US West route) rose 0.1% to 863.46 points, and the NCFI (US West route) rose 48.56% to 1254.46 points [4]. - On October 17, compared with the previous period, the SCFI increased by 149.90 points to 1310.32 points, the CCFI (composite index) decreased by 4.1% to 973.11 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.2% to 1145 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) decreased by 1.5% to 1267.91 points, the SCFI US West route rose 31.9% to 1936 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) decreased by 6.7% to 725.47 points [4]. Economic Data - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - In September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Market Conditions - On October 22, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, up 2.25%, with a trading volume of 28,600 lots and an open interest of 29,000 lots, an increase of 574 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%, the margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On October 21, Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, discussing issues such as bilateral relations, security, and military cooperation, as well as the upcoming November parliamentary elections in Iraq [4]. - On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Feidan and National Intelligence Agency Director Kallen met with representatives of Hamas in Doha, discussing the Gaza situation and the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The mainstream shipping lines have different cargo - booking situations, leading to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations has driven the far - month contracts to fluctuate upwards. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded market expectations, and it is expected that the 2510 contract on the disk will repair the discount upwards. The spot freight rate spread among mainstream shipping lines has widened again, but the off - season of container shipping is expected to gradually improve. The cargo volume on the demand side shows a seasonal decline, and the shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve. The overall capacity from October to December changes little, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the second - stage negotiation faces pressure. The probability of future tariff deterioration is not high [5][6] - For trading strategies, continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips. Also, continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [8][9] 3. Summary based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Disk** - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2510 closed at 1,100.1, up 3.2 (0.29%) with a trading volume of 1,174.0 (down 25.70%) and an open interest of 8,396.0 (down 6.96%) [4] - **Monthly Spread Structure** - There are different price spreads and their price changes between different futures contracts. For example, the spread between EC10 - EC12 is - 582, down 24.1 [4] - **Container Freight Rates** - Different container freight rates (weekly) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line index is 1140.38, up 10.52% month - on - month and down 48.27% year - on - year [4] - **Fuel Costs** - The WTI crude oil near - month price is 57.22 US dollars per barrel, up 0.51% month - on - month and down 16.90% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 61.16 US dollars per barrel, up 0.71% month - on - month and down 16.0% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The mainstream shipping lines' cargo - booking situations lead to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations affects the far - month contracts. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded expectations. The spot freight rate spread among shipping lines has widened, but the off - season is expected to improve. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has little change in overall capacity from October to December, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the tariff negotiation has a low probability of deterioration [5][6] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips, paying attention to the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire and the second - stage negotiation in Israel - Palestine and the expected changes in shipping lines' resumption of flights [8] - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks, parts, and passenger cars from November 1 [10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to postpone the implementation of the "Net - Zero Framework" in a special meeting, which has attracted wide attention and strong reactions from the shipping industry, governments, and environmental organizations [10] - The Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement implementation is tortuous. The Israeli army carried out retaliatory air strikes and then resumed the cease - fire. The second - stage negotiation faces pressure as Netanyahu is reluctant to promote it due to complex issues [11] - Hamas condemned Israel for closing the Rafah crossing, which it believes violates the first - stage cease - fire agreement [11][12]