非农数据实时分析中 美国非农数据已公布，黄金会如何借势突围？当前的关键点在哪？Richard正在直播解析关键位，点击 马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，分析师Chris Anstey表示，从表面上看，非农比我们预期的要强劲，甚至两个月的 修正数据都是积极的，为1.6万。 分析师：从表面看，非农数据更强劲 ...

美国劳工统计局：4月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修正至15.8万人；5月份非农新增就业人数从13.9万人修正至14.4万人。4月和5月合计较上修1.6万人。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY) which reached 97, reflecting a daily rise of 0.39% [1] - In response to the stronger dollar, spot gold prices fell sharply by $19, settling at $3,330 per ounce [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was better than anticipated, contributing to the rise in the US Dollar Index [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) increased to 97, marking a daily gain of 0.39% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Spot gold experienced a short-term decline of $19, with the price reported at $3,330 per ounce [1]

金十数据7月3日讯，美国6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人，好于市场普遍预期。 非农数据好于预期 ...

黄金止步不前，震荡僵局难以打破？非农数据能否破局？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进入直播间 观看>> 相关链接 黄金实时分析中 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the intensified competition between bulls and bears in the gold market, driven by weak ADP data and the anticipation of non-farm payroll data impacting market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The ADP data released indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to be a significant market mover, with potential implications for gold prices [1] - The article suggests that the future performance of gold will be closely tied to these economic indicators and market reactions [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights an unexpected decrease in ADP private employment numbers for June, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the first contraction in employment since March 2023 [1][3] - The weak labor market signals that even with tariff adjustments by the Trump administration, there has been no improvement in employment conditions [1] - Following the ADP report, some economists may lower their expectations for the upcoming employment report, and traders have increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has risen from approximately 20% to 27.4% after the ADP data release [3] - The ADP data, while not a perfect predictor, has shown over 70% consistency with the direction of monthly fluctuations in non-farm payrolls for 2024-2025, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm data [3] - If the non-farm employment numbers fall below 150,000, it could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for international gold prices [3] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a rebound after three consecutive trading days, surpassing the critical level of $3,308 per ounce, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are noted at $3,360 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially moving resistance to $3,446 per ounce, while support remains at $3,308 per ounce [3] - The market strategist suggests that the ADP data reinforces expectations of a cooling job market, but actual non-farm data may exceed expectations, leading to volatile market reactions [3]

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll (NFP) data release schedule for 2025 is crucial for investors, as it significantly impacts the gold market, especially amid current Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [1] - Understanding the economic logic and transmission mechanisms behind the NFP report is key to enhancing investment success rates [1] Group 1: NFP Data Release Schedule - The NFP data will be released on specific dates in 2025, with the first release on January 10 at 21:30 for December data [2] - Subsequent releases will occur on February 7, March 7, April 4, May 2, June 6, July 3, August 1, September 5, October 3, November 7, and December 5, with the July release moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors should focus on three key time points around the NFP release: 30 minutes before the release, 15 minutes after the release, and 1 hour after the release to gauge market reactions [1] - For risk-averse investors, it is advisable to close positions before the data release and wait for clearer trends, while experienced traders can leverage short-term volatility through buying or selling gold products [1] - The platform, Lingfeng Precious Metals, offers real-time information and trading services to help investors navigate market fluctuations following the NFP data release [2]