现货黄金收复非农数据后的跌幅，现报3361美元/盎司。 ...

非农数据高于预期 金十数据6月6日讯，美国5月季调后非农就业人口录得13.9万人，创2月以来新低，高于市场预期的13万 水平。 ...

非农数据前瞻分析中 黄金反复测试关键位，今晚将公布非农数据，是否会爆冷？短期内可以怎么布局？Richard正在直播解 读中，点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report on gold trading, especially in light of the disappointing ADP employment data [1] Group 1 - The ADP employment report showed unexpected weakness, raising concerns about the NFP report's performance [1] - Traders are advised to monitor key levels in gold trading as the market reacts to employment data [1]

大家好，今天跟大家聊一下美国的非农数据，最近市场都在盯着今晚，也就是本周五要公布的美国5月非农就业报告。 这数据有多关键呢？我给你画个图景：投资者们此时此刻的状态，就像高考前看成绩："老天保佑，非农别崩，美元还要靠它续命呢！" 那我们来看看非农前到底发生了什么。 前几天，市场已经给出一堆"预热数据"了，比如ADP"小非农"公布了：5月美国私营部门新增就业只有3.7万人。这已经不是低了，是低到地板缝里了。原 本大家预期是11万，结果一出，市场一脸懵："这3.7万，是不是你统计的时候Wi-Fi断了？" 所以现在大家心里就一根弦：那非农是不是也要崩？ 目前机构普遍预测：5月非农新增就业人数从4月的17.7万人，下滑到13万人。甚至富国银行直接表示：我们更保守，只看12.5万。你看现在大家都学会 了"保守估计"，生怕说多了打脸。 而失业率预计维持在4.2%，这看着还行，但细看数据你就知道，这其实是个"僵持平衡"：就业少了，找工作时间长了，裁员多了，但失业率还不涨，什么 意思？ 简单讲：大家没活干但也不急着找了，有点"摆烂"。 说白了，现在美国劳动力市场有点像加班过度的打工人，精神状态是这样的： "裁员？习惯了。" " ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have stabilized after a significant decline due to weak economic data, with particular focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields are currently at 3.879%, 4.367%, and 4.890% respectively [1] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by 8 basis points and 9.5 basis points respectively, influenced by the disappointing ADP employment report [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment report has led to increased scrutiny on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to be more significant than usual [1] - Analysts from Metzler emphasize that more signs of weakness in the labor market are needed before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The number of job openings in the US in April was higher than expected and the previous value. This week, there is a dense release of US economic data, with a focus on the non - farm payrolls report on Friday. Additionally, attention should be paid to the US Trade Court's ban on Trump's tariffs and the progress of various negotiations. The international gold price should maintain the idea of buying on dips, relying on the strong support at $3000. Today, focus on the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for May [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariffs - The Trump administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. - Sources said that the US put forward a "tough" list of requirements to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. - Sources indicated that the EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". - The Brazilian President stated that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will appeal to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. - The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, with nearly half of the issues having reached a consensus [2] Fed - Logan believes that the focus should be on achieving the 2% inflation target rather than trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. - Bostic still thinks there may be one interest rate cut this year [2] Economic Forecast - The OECD lowered its GDP growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%) [2]

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

5月的非农数据并没有对美元指数产生较大的影响，美元指数一直保持在100的压制震荡弱势，难以走出 大涨，也难以走出大跌，在均衡间偏弱，出现微跌状态。因为前期下跌力度较大，所以整体来看，美元 的主力度还是弱势，因此，近期还是关注美元持续下跌空间。黄金则在上个周期大跌至3200后止跌，经 过周五非农的震荡来回，最高反弹至3270，不过弱势就是弱势，不会因为一个数据直接转强，所以，对 于本周期而言，黄金还是弱势，强弱转换还需要时间。4月的黄金大跌，没有改变黄金的多头趋势，5月 的黄金还是在多头趋势中保持对上涨的期待，只要趋势不变，市场各方面因素也没有消退，黄金的上涨 随时都可能会走出来，所以没暂时的弱势是相对的，未来的走势依旧看涨。从技术面来看，日线周期从 强势到弱势也就经过1周的时间变化，日线周期暂时收在布林中轨附近，上涨站稳布林中轨之上，那 么，就可以继续看涨至3325，3370，下跌破位布林中轨，那么，就可以继续看跌至3200，3075，所以， 日线在本周的涨跌延续性至关重要。H4周期的变化也是如此，暂时布林收口明显，下方的防守点就在 3200，上方破位3270后方可转强至3325之上，所以，现在中期的涨跌的区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report suggests that traders may have reasons to lower their expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing measures, indicating potential further reductions in rate cut bets [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic Data Impact** - The combination of data in the non-farm report challenges the recent signals of economic weakness from "soft data" [1] - **Market Expectations** - Traders are currently pricing in expectations for more than two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - **Future Projections** - If hard data like non-farm payroll continues to contradict soft data, there may be room for further reductions in rate cut expectations [1]