Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is whether the financial system has adequately priced in the new normal amidst ongoing global challenges such as tariff conflicts, AI transformations, geopolitical tensions, and climate crises [1][3] - Engel identifies several sources of uncertainty for 2025, including tariff policies, anti-science sentiments in the U.S., immigration issues, and ongoing wars, which are increasing market volatility without sufficient caution from the market [3] - Engel's ARCH model serves as a tool for monitoring volatility rather than predicting market movements, emphasizing that it can indicate when volatility is high or low but cannot forecast market direction [5] Group 2 - Engel compares current tariff policies to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, suggesting that tariffs are detrimental to both parties involved and are unlikely to be sustainable [7] - He argues that AI should not be viewed as an independent source of market volatility, as it is fundamentally a probabilistic model that assists human decision-making rather than replacing it [7] - Engel stresses the importance of gradual and predictable policy adjustments to mitigate risks, as sudden changes can lead to reduced investment and consumption, ultimately slowing down the economy [7] Group 3 - For non-professional investors, Engel recommends using volatility control indices that automatically adjust positions based on market volatility, allowing for a gradual exit before major shocks occur [9] - He emphasizes the importance of disciplined risk management over market timing, suggesting that investors should build diversified portfolios with set volatility targets [9] - Engel expresses concern about potential escalations in wars, the re-emergence of stagflation, and stagnation in climate action, while remaining hopeful about improved U.S.-China relations that could benefit global economic stability [11]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China shows that China Construction Bank Corporation and Jianxin Financial Technology Co., Ltd. have applied for a patent titled "Data Processing Method, Device, Medium, and Product for Foreign Exchange Swap Business," with publication number CN121414491A and application date of October 2025 [1] - The patent abstract indicates that the application provides a data processing method for foreign exchange swap business, which includes obtaining cash flow data and financial market data, determining exchange rate risk indicators, and managing subscription channels for different swap cash flow data [1] - The method aims to address inefficiencies in risk management and lack of quantitative capabilities caused by reliance on manual experience in existing technologies [1] Group 2 - China Construction Bank Corporation, established in 2004 and located in Beijing, primarily engages in monetary financial services with a registered capital of 26,160,038.1459 thousand RMB [2] - The bank has invested in 37 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and holds 1,894 trademark records and 5,000 patent records, along with 149 administrative licenses [2] - Jianxin Financial Technology Co., Ltd., founded in 2018 and based in Shanghai, focuses on software and information technology services with a registered capital of 172,972.9729 thousand RMB [2] - The company has invested in 6 enterprises, participated in 4,334 bidding projects, and possesses 296 trademark records and 5,000 patent records, in addition to 10 administrative licenses [2]

在钢材贸易领域，冬储是延续多年的行业惯例。每到年末，钢材贸易商都会提前储备库存，静待次年开春工地复工后需求回升、价格上 涨，从而赚取价差收益。这不仅是贸易商的盈利途径，还是钢厂平衡产销、稳定现金流的重要支撑。但2024年年初，钢材价格意外大幅跳 水，参与冬储的贸易商损失惨重，使得市场对冬储的恐惧情绪开始蔓延。 2025年年初，冬储窗口期再次来临，但市场信心已严重受挫。当时，绝大多数下游钢材贸易商受2024年亏损的影响，对冬储采购望而却 步，即便部分贸易商有采购需求，也因担忧价格再次下跌而选择观望。这直接导致各大钢厂的销售压力陡增，库存积压问题日益严峻，生 产线运转的连续性面临挑战。 其实钢厂本可凭借行业地位强制贸易商采购，但2024年贸易商亏损的情景让钢厂也陷入两难境地：一方面，库存高企占用大量资金，影响 钢厂的正常运营；另一方面，若钢厂强行施压，一旦2025年钢材价格再次下跌，贸易商可能面临生存危机，进而导致钢厂下游渠道断裂， 最终将损害行业生态。一时间，"贸易商不敢储、钢厂不敢销"的僵局持续发酵，成为制约钢材行业年初平稳开局的核心矛盾。 扎根金融衍生品领域 随着期货市场的快速发展，金融衍生工具成了实体企业 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends to identify high-growth investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The company has a strong focus on corporate earnings and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable investment ideas [1] - The investment research is co-authored by a team that combines complementary strengths, enhancing the quality of insights provided [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [1] - The approach taken by the company blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, which is essential in the current market environment [1]

1月27日，CME发布26-035号文件，宣布对旗下白银、钯、铂三大金属期货产品的履约保证金（下称保证金）进行全面 上调，新规将于今日（1月28日）收盘后正式生效。 期货日报记者发现，这是CME继本月初调整部分金属与能源类期货产品保证金之后，推出的又一项关键风险管理举措。 此次调整首次明确将保证金与合约的"名义价值"直接挂钩，标志着CME贵金属期货保证金计算模式，正式从传统"固定 美元金额"向更具灵活性的"动态百分比"转型。 调整覆盖11类贵金属期货合约 保证金由"固态"转为"动态" 此次调整并非简单的费率上调，更核心的是保证金计算模式的变化。据格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏介绍，在 2026年1月之前，CME贵金属期货保证金采用"固定美元金额"设定，例如某白银期货合约保证金固定为2000美元/手，与 合约名义价值变动无关；而本月初的调整是非固定金额模式，意味着CME开始推行"基于名义价值百分比"的新计算方 式，26-035号文件将推动这一模式落地。 CME在文件中解释称，此次调整是"对市场波动性的常规审查，以确保充足的抵押品覆盖"。 华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong认为，基于名义价值百分比 ...

中国人寿 中国人寿 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 48.72 0.38 0.79% 2.17% 1.45% 0.72% 0.00% 0.72% 1.45% 2.17% 47.29 47.64 47.99 48.34 48.69 49.04 49.39 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 3万 20万 37万 54万 纵观国寿资产的资产配置体系，既有谋定全局的"战略配置"，亦有灵活调整的"战术配置"。除了建立以 绝对收益为目标的配置体系外，国寿资产还高度重视品种投资能力建设，在固收、权益、另类等投资领 域都配备了体系完整的专业化投资团队，获得出色的超额收益。 创造更多"加分项" 除了丰富的策略体系、产品货架，国寿资产还从多方面打造"加分项"。 作为国内首批成立的保险资产管理公司之一，国寿资产自成立之初就承担了保险资金集中化、规范化和 专业化投资的使命，并以强大的投研能力作为发展内核，逐渐吸引越来越多保险业外资金进行委托投 资，形成了"一手抓系统内大账，一手抓系统外三方"的投资管理格局。 策略体系、产品货架日臻完善 目前，国寿资产已经建立起覆盖多种资产类别、投资策略和客户风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) effectively fulfilled its frontline regulatory responsibilities, addressing various trading irregularities and enhancing risk management for physical enterprises through increased hedging applications and approvals [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - ZCE processed a total of 183 cases of abnormal trading behavior and reviewed 22 cases of violations against self-regulatory management rules [1] - Disciplinary actions were taken against 31 individuals and 15 legal entities, including warnings, public reprimands, and penalties such as suspension of trading and confiscation of illegal gains [1] Group 2: Hedging Applications - The volume of hedging applications reached a historical high in 2025, with ZCE accepting 4,428 applications from 689 clients, amounting to 22.68 million contracts [1] - The approval volume for these applications was 20.32 million contracts, indicating a robust demand for risk management tools among market participants [1] Group 3: Policy Enhancements - ZCE introduced new hedging application categories for products such as caustic soda, paraxylene, and bottle flakes, allowing for general month hedging limits by product type [1] - The total limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 products, including PTA, were increased to 2.5 times the speculative position limits, aimed at improving hedging review efficiency [1]

1月27日，CME发布26-035号文件，宣布对旗下白银、钯、铂三大金属期货产品的履约保证金(下称保证金)进行全面上调，新规将于今日(1 月28日)收盘后正式生效。 期货日报记者发现，这是CME继本月初调整部分金属与能源类期货产品保证金之后，推出的又一项关键风险管理举措。此次调整首次明确 将保证金与合约的"名义价值"直接挂钩，标志着CME贵金属期货保证金计算模式，正式从传统"固定美元金额"向更具灵活性的"动态百分 比"转型。 调整覆盖11类贵金属期货合约 文件显示，此次调整覆盖11类贵金属期货合约，涵盖白银、钯、铂的不同合约类型及期限，所有涉及产品的保证金均呈现上调态势，无一 下调或维持不变。 白银类产品是此次调整的重点，包括纽约商品交易所5000盎司白银期货(SI)、结算价交易期货(SIT)、迷你白银期货(QI)、微型白银期货 (SIL)、微型白银结算价交易期货(MST)及迷你白银期货(6Q)六大合约类型。其中，非高风险组合(Non-HRP)保证金从原先的9%统一上调至 11%，高风险组合(HRP)保证金则从9.9%上调至12.1%，且这一调整适用于1个月至13个月及以上的全期限合约。 钯类产品调整幅度更为 ...

此外，需打造"能共情"的公众教育体系，彻底扭转对野生动物的"萌化"认知。"萌化"野生动物最直接的 危害，就是让人丧失对自然的敬畏，因此在宣传中，应明明白白告诉人们，华北豹作为顶级掠食者，是 森林健康的"调控者"，也是生态系统完整的重要"标志"，需明确传递其野生习性及人类应与其保持的安 全距离，大力推广"远观即是保护"的理念。 最后，赋能"在一线"的本地守护力量也不可或缺。培训并组建本地村民巡护队，使其参与监测、反盗猎 与科普宣传，他们将成为最早的预警者和最好的"代言人"。山西省和顺县当地村民组成的"老豹子队"巡 护队伍，不仅成为华北豹监测保护的一线力量，更实现了从"被动受影响者"到"主动守护者"的角色转 变。 北京欢迎华北豹这一顶级捕食者的回归，背后面临着空前复杂的治理挑战。其考验的不仅是我们修复自 然的能力，更是我们管理自身行为、平衡多元利益、构建社会共识的智慧。北京"迎豹回家"能否成功， 不仅取决于华北豹能否回来，更取决于当它们真的回来时，我们是否已准备好与之共享这片山林。这条 路，要求我们将风险防范置于与生态修复同等重要的高度，通过科学的规划、公正的机制和深入的教 育，未雨绸缪，方能实现真正意义上的、可 ...

强化数字赋能驱动生产管控新飞跃 （来源：中国航空报） 吴阳 张莉 "十四五"以来，面对航空发展新形势、新机遇，航空工业庆安聚焦价值创造，以数字化转型为契机，以 流程变革为突破口，积极开展管理创新，实现了生产运行在变革、数字、精益、绿色四个维度的系统性 突破，推动生产管理能力不断提升。 变革计划管理构筑专业能力提效率 生产管理对标世界一流，构建适应庆安发展的集成计划体系，形成要货预测、S&OP计划、主生产计 划、采购计划等多层级计划管理方法，明确各层级计划间衔接逻辑，确定各层级计划的场景、对象、频 次及展望期，同时编制各层计划流程、指南、规范等相关流程。瞄准庆安战略、经营目标，深入挖掘客 户潜在需求，形成"订单+预测+内部需求"的要货预测。通过计划的层层分解传递，将客户需求转化为 清晰、全面、具体的执行作业行为，实现计划的全面性和协同性，有效提高生产效率。 通过平台整合多元数据，深挖数字化平台潜力。完成工装计划管理系统上线应用，全面优化生产准备工 装计划管控、工装故障、工装设计无纸化、电子信息流转。开发公司级驾驶舱看板、部门级驾驶舱看 板，使数据展示实时化，形成"保障+组建+主战"合成型数字化转型新模式。管理实 ...