近日召开的全国零售业创新发展大会明确了"十五五"时期零售业的发展方向：从规模扩张转向品质 驱动与服务驱动，加快构建现代零售体系。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上提出，要学习推广胖东来等企业 的好经验好做法，加快转型提升。这不仅肯定了区域零售企业探索路径的实践价值，也表明未来零售业 发展的重要思路之一，就是要"以品质去赢得市场，以服务去重塑竞争力"。 加快业态融合，打开零售业发展新空间。零售业需要逐渐打破传统零售思维，从单一卖场向"生活 场景"转型，结合文化、旅游、娱乐等元素拓展体验空间。例如，杭州湖滨商圈依托首店经济拉动消费 增长，通过文化与首店相融合，展现杭州这座城市独特的商业魅力。 零售业的品质驱动转型，不仅是商业模式变革，更是发展理念重塑。这要求企业从追求短期流量转 向长期价值创造，从价格竞争转向体验竞争。随着首发经济、赛事经济、"人工智能+消费"等新业态持 续涌现，以及数字化技术加速应用，零售业将在品质引领下形成更健康、更富活力的发展状态，并为做 强国内大循环注入持续动能。(本文来源：经济日报 作者：冯其予) 当前，我国零售业正处于深刻变革的关键节点。一方面，消费市场规模持续扩大，今年前三季度， 限额以上零售 ...

12月15日下午，省政府召开经济运行调度会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话和中央经济工 作会议精神，认真落实李强总理讲话要求，按照省委十四届十次全会和省委常委会会议部署，研究安排 当前重点工作，坚定不移完成全年目标任务，确保"十四五"圆满收官。省长刘小涛主持会议并讲话。 刘小涛强调，要切实把思想和行动统一到习近平总书记、党中央对经济形势的科学判断和决策部署 上来，牢牢把握"五个必须"的规律性认识，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑 战，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，扎实补短板、筑底板、强弱项、扬优势，不断巩固拓展经 济稳中向好势头，以高质量发展实绩实效为全国发展大局多作贡献。 刘小涛指出，要抓好重点攻坚，努力扩大有效投资，加大重大项目推进、"两重"项目资金配套和使 用进度，形成更多实物工作量；坚持"一区域一策、一类群体一策、一地块一策、一楼盘一策"激发住房 需求，探索多渠道盘活存量商品房，着力稳定房地产市场。要抓好潜能挖掘，持续开展"暖冬购物季"等 消费促进活动和"苏品苏货"对接会，发力首店、首品等首发经济，激发商品消费、服务业消费活力；要 大力引育新主体、拓展新市场、发展新模式、畅 ...

从城市端看，首发经济正在成为衡量商业活力的重要指标。北京市商务局数据显示，2025年前11个月， 北京新增首店达960余家，其中中轴线成为众多首店布局的新选择。首店落地带来的"新供给"与"新体 验"正在撬动消费增量。从过往数据来看，吉林省商务厅数据显示，2025年上半年，吉林引进品牌首店 63家，吸引200余万人次打卡消费。 中央财经大学副教授刘春生对《证券日报》记者表示，从经济学视角看，首店经济通过新鲜感效应激活 潜在需求、倒逼供给优化、形成商圈集群联动等机制拉动消费，兼具创造新增消费与消费再分配双重作 用，既会因限定产品、特色服务唤醒消费者额外购买需求，也会吸引传统商圈、品牌的消费流向新场 景。 12月14日，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅及金融监管总局办公厅联合发布《关于加强商务和金融 协同更大力度提振消费的通知》（以下简称《通知》），提出强化商务和金融系统协作，引导金融机构 聚焦消费重点领域加大支持力度，助力提振和扩大消费。《通知》还明确了积极探索金融支持首发经济 等消费新业态新模式的有效举措。 首发经济主要是以开设首店，发布新产品，推出新业态、新模式、新服务、新技术的经济活动。 消费新动能的一个直 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "first-store economy" has emerged as a significant driver for activating the consumer market, with various regions implementing innovative measures to unleash domestic demand potential and inject strong momentum into economic growth [1] - In Xi'an, the integration of the first-store economy with cultural tourism and technology has led to the popularity of tech-based first-store outlets, becoming a new engine for urban economic growth. The Qin Shi Huang Mausoleum's XR experience space has attracted over 20,000 visitors in just three months of trial operation [3][5] - Xi'an has introduced a policy offering up to 1 million yuan in subsidies for first stores, activating commercial vitality through a "first store + business district" linkage model. From January to November this year, Xi'an has attracted 279 first stores and held 186 first-store events, indicating a continuous rise in commercial activity [7] Group 2 - In Fujian, the "All Fujian Shopping" initiative has been launched to stimulate county-level consumption potential, featuring various benefits such as consumption vouchers and government subsidies at local markets. The province aims to create a hub for domestic and international brand launches and original brand incubation with a special fund of 20 million yuan by 2025. In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Fujian reached 1,865.365 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The joint notification from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost and expand consumption in China [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notification outlines 11 policy measures across three main areas, encouraging the synergy of government, finance, and enterprises to promote consumption through diverse activities and information sharing [1][2]. - Local commerce departments are encouraged to utilize existing funding channels to conduct consumption promotion activities, enhancing the effectiveness of financial support [2]. - The notification emphasizes the importance of financial institutions in supporting key consumption areas, including health, culture, and new consumption fields like digital and green consumption [2][3]. Group 2: New Consumption Development - The notification promotes the development of new consumption models, focusing on risk control and commercial sustainability, and encourages financial support for emerging sectors such as green and digital consumption [2][3]. - It highlights the role of digital RMB smart contracts and improved inbound payment convenience to empower cities with active consumption ecosystems [3]. Group 3: Upgrading Consumption - The notification calls for enhanced financial services for durable goods and digital products, aiming to meet consumer demand for upgrades [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to collaborate with platforms and key merchants to improve payment services, including installment plans and digital RMB [4]. - Policies supporting trade integration and cross-border supply chain financing are emphasized to facilitate the entry of quality foreign products into the domestic market [4]. Group 4: Economic Context - The notification is part of broader macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting domestic demand, with recent indicators showing positive trends in consumer prices and production [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to work with financial authorities to ensure the effective implementation of these measures, contributing to a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% closing at 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.10% at 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77% at 3137.8 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 2.22% at 1318.91 points [1] - Overall, there were 2312 stocks that rose and 2965 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 17734 billion yuan, a decrease of 3188 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-bank financials, retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, steel, and building materials showed positive performance with increases of 1.59%, 1.49%, 1.24%, 0.91%, and 0.91% respectively [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, telecommunications, media, machinery, and computers experienced declines, with decreases of 2.42%, 1.89%, 1.63%, 1.36%, and 1.27% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included dairy, selected insurance, chemical fiber selection, three-child policy, large aircraft, fiberglass, SPD, liquor, initial public offering economy, photovoltaic glass, gold and jewelry, cross-strait integration, satellite internet, chemical raw materials selection, and aquaculture [2] - In contrast, sectors such as optical modules (CPO), GPU, optical communication, cultivated diamonds, ASIC chips, optical chips, and Moore threads experienced pullbacks [2]

Core Insights - The event "Building a New Ecosystem, Creating the Future" highlighted the launch of innovative brands and economic scenarios in the Jinjiang District, including HADO, Bawang Chaji, and others, showcasing the district's commitment to fostering a vibrant consumer market and innovative economic development [1][3]. Brand Highlights - Bawang Chaji has established over 7,000 global stores since moving its headquarters to Jinjiang in 2021, successfully integrating local culture with tea consumption [4][20]. - HADO, a leading AR sports technology brand, has created a comprehensive industry chain that combines sports, education, and technology, appealing to a young demographic [15][17]. - Zigzag Mountain, a honey tea brand, has chosen Chengdu's Chunxi Road for its flagship store, aiming to establish a local supply chain and cultural IP [14]. Innovative Economic Scenarios - The "Robot World" platform in Jinjiang serves as a core hub for brand display and consumer experience, with plans for a 28,000 square meter development to create a full lifecycle ecosystem for products and services [8][10]. - The "Shishuo Wuyu" online platform, leveraging social media for product launches, has achieved over 100 million in sales, indicating a strong market presence [11]. Market Trends - The Jinjiang District has seen a surge in new store openings, with 266 new stores established from January to October 2023, accounting for nearly 40% of the city's total [25]. - The first city duty-free store in Chengdu has opened, blending international quality with local characteristics, further enhancing the consumer landscape [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple positive factors such as further improvement of the system, renewed expansion of funds, and continuous empowerment of industries, the long - term and steady - growth pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, fund protection, and industry drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flow and risk appetite again, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady - growth trend. With the gradual implementation of the tone of important meetings in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4539.60, 4522.80, 4496.60, and 4453.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively. The price increases were 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60 respectively, and the trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00 respectively. The open interest was 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00 respectively, with an increase of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2969.80, 2962.60, 2961.80, and 2948.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively. The price increases were 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00 respectively. The open interest was 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00 respectively, with a change of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7074.40, 7015.80, 6894.00, and 6691.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7174.00, 7115.00, 6998.80, and 6795.40 respectively. The price increases were 90.20, 92.60, 96.20, and 99.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 82739.00, 13122.00, 44665.00, and 11914.00 respectively. The open interest was 99631.00, 26329.00, 100787.00, and 37925.00 respectively, with an increase of 51.00, 4850.00, 9352.00, and 2326.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7304.60, 7222.80, 7063.00, and 6820.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively. The price increases were 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80 respectively, and the trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00 respectively. The open interest was 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00 respectively, with a change of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 18.40, - 6.80, - 59.00, and - 75.60 respectively, and the previous values were - 16.80, - 7.20, - 58.60, and - 81.80 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4580.95, 2994.64, 7169.79, and 7370.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4552.18, 2977.03, 7082.89, and 7312.00 respectively. The price increases were 0.63, 0.59, 1.23, and 0.81 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of - 0.52%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 0.94%, 0.89%, and 0.58% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 0.66%, 0.29%, 0.35%, and 0.93% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities industries had increases of 0.55% and 0.53% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index were - 6.95, - 25.35, - 49.95, and - 91.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 12.58, - 29.38, - 55.58, and - 98.38 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the Shanghai 50 index were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.23, - 14.43, - 15.23, and - 29.03 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 8.49, - 67.09, - 188.89, and - 391.89 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 9.14, - 84.74, - 251.14, and - 490.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.40, - 89.20, - 249.00, and - 491.40 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.35, 13258.33, 8020.01, and 3194.36 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3873.32, 13147.39, 7947.12, and 3163.67 respectively. The price increases were 0.41%, 0.84%, 0.92%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25976.79, 50148.82, 6827.41, and 24186.49 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25530.51, 50602.80, 6901.00, and 24294.61 respectively. The price increases were 1.75%, - 0.90%, - 1.07%, and - 0.45% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice proposing 11 specific measures in three aspects: deepening cooperation between the business and financial systems, increasing financial support for key consumption areas, and expanding government - policy - bank - enterprise docking cooperation [2] - Multiple departments are deploying to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and more incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment recovery, and cultivate new growth drivers [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will hold important economic and trade activities in 2026 [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China invested over 700 billion yuan in high - standard farmland construction, supporting the construction and renovation of 460 million mu of high - standard farmland [2] 6. Industry Information - China's artificial intelligence industry has been accelerating development in 2025, with the core industry scale expected to exceed one trillion yuan [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of China's machinery industry added value was 7.1%, and the growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was 8.7% [2] - By 2030, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. By 2060, the proportions of fossil energy, hydropower and nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaics will be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30% respectively [2] - As the copper futures price exceeded $10,000 per ton this year, China is accelerating the promotion of "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard formulation [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes declined, while the stock indexes in the previous trading session regained their upward momentum. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains, and the commercial and retail sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan [2] - On December 11, the margin trading balance decreased by 6.26 billion yuan to 2490.146 billion yuan [2]

晨会纪要 中原期货研究咨询部 2025 第（227）期 发布日期：2025-12-15 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 0371-58620081 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/14 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,062.50 | 1,016.50 | 46.0 | 4.525 | | | 焦炭 | 1,508.50 | 1,475.00 | 33.50 | 2.271 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,265.00 | 15,230.00 | 35.0 | 0.230 | | | 20号胶 | 12,440.00 | 12,330.00 | 110.0 | 0.892 | | | 塑料 | 6,602.00 | 6,486.00 | 116.0 | 1.788 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,294.00 | 6,12 ...

Group 1: Hot News - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the revision of the "Detailed Rules for the Lithium Carbonate Futures and Options Business of Guangzhou Futures Exchange", with Article 4 applicable to contracts LC2612 and later, and Article 53 effective from December 12, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to boost consumption, including using digital RMB smart - contract red envelopes, promoting personal consumption loans, and exploring new business models [2] - The "Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform" was launched, with the planned silicon material production capacity not exceeding 1.5 million tons, using a dual - track model to address industry competition [2] - China is accelerating the "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard - setting, with one standard released and others in the process [3] - Ukraine and the US held a more than five - hour talk on the "peace plan" in Berlin, and the talk will continue on December 15 [3] Group 2: Key Commodities to Focus On - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, coking coal, alumina, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance shows the following sector price changes: non - metallic building materials 2.63%, precious metals 32.00%, oilseeds and oils 8.68%, soft commodities 3.03%, non - ferrous metals 24.87%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 10.90%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 10.42%, grains 1.37%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.50% [4] Group 4: Sector Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index daily increase 0.41%, monthly increase 0.02%, annual increase 16.04%; S&P 500 daily decrease - 1.07%, monthly increase 0.12%, annual increase 16.59%; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures daily decrease - 0.13%, monthly increase 0.04%, annual decrease - 0.86%; etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index daily decrease - 0.83%, monthly increase 0.81%, annual increase 2.43%; etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index daily increase 0.06%, monthly decrease - 0.38%, annual decrease - 8.68%; CBOE volatility daily increase 5.99%, monthly decrease - 1.65%, annual decrease - 7.32% [6] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The report shows trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [7]