Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while others such as coking coal and coke declined significantly. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing short - term risks and others having long - term upward potential [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 8, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Live pigs, low - sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while coking coal fell over 6% and coke fell over 5%. In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and in the bond futures, the performance varied [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The price of Shanghai copper has been rising due to factors such as the increase in LME cancelled warrants, the anti - internal competition in the domestic copper industry, and the expected Fed rate cut. The supply is tight, and the downstream has some resilience. However, the downstream's ability to accept the price is insufficient after continuous price increases, so short - term small corrections should be watched out, and it is bullish in the long - term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5, the upstream production capacity is increasing. The production in November continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down in December. The downstream demand has slowed down and is differentiated. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. The end of the consumption peak season, concerns about demand, and continuous production increase have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors such as the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expected rate cut, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, and the downstream demand is general. The price of crude oil is oscillating at a low level. The start - up rate of asphalt will increase slightly, but the demand will weaken further. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is weakening. The supply is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is high. Although there are some policy boosts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Coking Coal**: The price dropped by over 6%. The supply is under pressure from imported coal, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory transfer is difficult, and it is expected to remain weak in the short - term [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price dropped on Monday. The supply pressure is relieved due to the shutdown of gas - fired devices, and the demand for winter storage and other aspects still exists. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly, and caution is needed in trading [22].

截至收盘，创业板成长指数上涨3.2%，创业板指数上涨2.6%，创业板中盘200指数上涨1.7%，创业板ETF（159915）全天成交额超40亿元。Wind数据显示， 该产品最新规模近1000亿元，位居同类产品第一。 有分析称，展望短期未来，市场对美联储降息预期较高，且市场近两日表现也说明在前期情绪释放后，市场对日本加息等其它流动性利空消息相对钝化，创 业板在整体市场震荡环境下有望体现更好的回补弹性。在技术面上，前两日的下影阳线叠加今日的放量上涨，可同时关注创业板长期配置价值和短期交易节 奏。 每日经济新闻 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 | 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增 | | --- | | 产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期累库，整体油品库存继续增加。 | | 美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈 | | 判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 | | 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国 | | 和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大 | | 楼将很快对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消费旺 | | 季结束、美国11月份 ...

美联储降息预期强烈，政策分歧引市场博弈：市场对美联储12月9-10日议息会议降息的预期是当下核心 影响因素。芝商所FedWatch工具显示本次降息25个基点的概率达87%，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放鸽派 信号，旧金山联储主席戴利更是明确支持12月降息。不过分歧依旧存在，3位有投票权的地区联储主席 坚持通胀偏高论调。市场除关注本次降息动作外，更聚焦2026年利率路径点阵图，其释放的信号将大概 率决定年末黄金行情基调。 美元指数在上周五探底回升，但整体维持在近期区间内，收报99.00，下跌0.05%，上周累计下跌 0.47%，为连续两周下滑。美国国债市场在上周五表现强劲，价格下跌推动收益率升至数周高位，10年 期国债收益率上涨3.1个基点至4.139%，上周累计上涨12.2个基点，创下4月初以来最大单周涨幅；30年 期国债收益率上涨3个基点至4.794%，上周涨幅达12.4个基点，为八个月来最大；两年期国债收益率上 涨3.4个基点至3.565%，上周涨幅7.3个基点，创10月下旬以来新高。这反映了投资者对美联储鹰派降息 的谨慎预期。 来源：市场资讯 12月8日，周一，亚市早盘时段，现货黄金微涨十美金后又小幅度回落， ...

操作上战略上要藐视市场，战术上要重视市场，对于目前的行情仍要保持清醒，市场没有永远的多头也没有永远空头，短线做波动，中线做波段，长线做趋 势，我们在不断的寻找可重复赢利的再现交易。对于交易而言必须要明确多空信号，果断进场，交易要趋向于第一种走势，堤防于第二走势，如果错了就要 注意第三种走势，金海踏浪、赢在节奏！黄金原油市场是一个智者的游戏，勇者的乐园，踏准节奏，波段操作，安全第一，控制风险，稳定赚钱，持续赢 利。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一（12月8日）欧市早盘时段，现货黄金微涨十美金后又小幅度回落，整体依旧窄幅震荡为主，目前"徘徊"于4200美元关口附近。黄金 市场在上周五（12月5日）呈现出典型的冲高回落走势，现货黄金一度飙升至4260美元/盎司关口附近，但随后快速转跌，尾盘收报4196美元/盎司，回落至 4200美元关口下方，这种波动主要源于美联储降息预期的持续支撑与多重压力的交织。 美联储降息预期强烈，政策分歧引市场博弈：市场对美联储12月9-10日议息会议降息的预期是当下核心影响因素。芝商所FedWatch工具显示本次降息25个基 点的概率达87%，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放鸽派信号 ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for December rose from 51 in November to 53.3, exceeding the median forecast of 52 by economists [1] - The overall expectations index increased to 55, marking a four-month high, while the current conditions index fell to a historical low of 50.7, below the expected 52.1 [1] - There is a significant confidence gap between Democratic and Republican respondents, with Democrats expressing heightened concerns about the current economic situation [1] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation for December is at 4.1%, the lowest level since January, compared to an expectation of 4.5% [1] - The five-year inflation expectation is at 3.2%, slightly below the expected 3.4% [1] Group 3: PCE Inflation Data - The PCE price index for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations, and rose by 2.8% year-over-year, also in line with forecasts [2][7] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, consistent with Bloomberg's and Dow Jones' expectations [2][8] - The SuperCore PCE, which reflects more stable inflation trends, slightly decreased to 3.25% due to stagnation in financial services and accommodation sectors [8] Group 4: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced slight declines, trading around 98.90, influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut in December [3][9] - The euro traded around 1.1650, facing pressure from profit-taking and cautious market behavior ahead of the Fed's rate decision [4][10] - The British pound saw a minor increase, trading at approximately 1.3340, supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations, although concerns about the Bank of England's potential rate cuts limited its upward movement [5][11]

国内外铜价创下新高。继12月3日LME（伦敦金属交易所）铜期货价格创出历史新高的11540美元/吨 后，4日，沪铜和国际铜期货主力合约分别创下历史新高的91450元/吨、82430元/吨。 南华期货研究院高级总监傅小燕称，这次铜价上涨主要是受到美联储降息预期以及全球铜库存区域性紧 张带来的双重溢价影响。核心关注点在于预期AI时代到来，对于铜的大量消耗需要足够的铜矿进口， 而全球铜库存转移背后反映出的全球资源争夺，势必造成区域性短缺风险。 对铜产业链企业的影响，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇认为，产业链上中下游受到的影响存 在差异，海外矿山享受铜价上涨带来的绝大多数利润；冶炼环节，拥有铜矿资源的铜冶炼企业受影响较 小，铜矿外采占比较高的铜企业受影响较大；铜加工企业成本攀升且加工费低位波动；下游用铜企业面 临成本压力。 关于后市行情预判，多位受访者认为，铜价上涨可能还没结束，一旦出现利空因素或者需求预期没有如 期兑现，铜价容易出现大幅调整。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达预计，铜价偏强运行，沪铜触及新高后， 或在90000元/吨一线反复争夺，谨慎追高，关注回调买入机会。 逼仓风险与供应紧张共推涨势 12月3日，LM ...

据报道，摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson领导的团队认为，鉴于企业盈利预期改善和美联储降息预 期，美国股市面临"看涨格局"。该策略师团队一直是对美股最乐观的声音之一，其对标普500指数的12 个月目标位为7800点，意味着较当前水平有约14%的上涨空间。 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 沪铜持续增仓上行 核心观点 铜：铜价增仓上行，突破历史高位，上行动能较强 上周，沪铜主力合约价格突破 9 万元/吨，伦铜价格也站上 1.1 万 美元/吨，两者均创下历史新高。这轮强劲上涨是供给紧缩、宏观预 期与金融资金共同驱动的结果。本轮行情最根本的驱动来自上游"矿 荒"。今年全球多个主要铜矿因事故、停产等因素大幅减产，导致铜 精矿供应紧张。在此背景下，宏观政策催化推动了铜价向上突破。 11 月下旬以来，市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期升温，营 ...

消息面上，上周五美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特表态边际转鹰派，他虽然预期美联储FOMC将会在 本周议息会议钟进行25个基点的降息操作，但他却表示"现在是美联储在此谨慎降息的好时机"，其措辞 发言与前期激进的推动降息相比有所转谨慎。哈塞特进行表态后，金银价格冲高回落。 五矿期货分析指出，面对就业数据的利多因素金银价格未延续突破历史新高强势表现，哈塞特的"任命 暗示"也令短期宽货币的驱动因素出尽，当前金银策略上建议逐步了结在手多单，转入观望状态。 12月8日，受美联储降息预期支撑与阻力位双重博弈影响，金价盘初震荡调整，午后反弹走强，重回 4240美元关口。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4245美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏（518850） 跌幅收窄至0.27%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.96%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨0.85%。 每日经济新闻 ...