Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing trade wars and policy uncertainties, leading to a drop in prices to near four-year lows. The high cost of raw material PX is expected to erode profits, and the overcapacity in the industry, combined with weak downstream demand, suggests that PTA prices may remain low for the foreseeable future [1]. Group 1: Market Supply and Capacity - China's PTA industry has seen significant capacity expansion, becoming the world's largest PTA producer with a total capacity of 86.2 million tons as of March [2]. - The rapid rise of private enterprises in the PTA sector has intensified industry transformation, leading to a more integrated competitive landscape where major suppliers have established a "PX-PTA-Polyester" supply chain [2]. - Despite the gradual increase in domestic PTA demand due to downstream polyester projects, the growth rate of PTA capacity is outpacing that of polyester, resulting in a buyer-dominated market [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Prices - The PX market has experienced a slowdown in capacity expansion after a rapid release phase, with domestic PX capacity expected to remain at 43.48 million tons in 2024, with no new projects planned for that year [3]. - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight, making it difficult for prices to decrease, which will further squeeze the profit margins of downstream products like PTA [4]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - The polyester industry, a key downstream consumer of PTA, holds 70% of the global market share, but the growth rate of new polyester capacity is slowing, leading to an oversupply crisis [5]. - The uncertainty in the international trade environment has negatively impacted overseas orders, particularly affecting exports to the U.S. and Europe, which is significant for the home textile industry [5]. - Many weaving enterprises are currently facing a dilemma of "high costs and low demand," leading some small and medium-sized companies to implement production cuts to maintain prices [5][6].

贝森特在5月12日的媒体发布会上表示，此次会谈的一项重要共识就是美国与中国的经贸合作空间巨 大，且美国不想与中国"脱钩"，未来希望通过对华经贸合作，更好地解决自身贸易逆差高企、精密制造 业空心化等迫切问题。贝森特的有关表态显示，在中美经贸关系问题上，美此前寄希望通过畸高关税施 压讹诈，迫使中方让步的单边主义、霸权主义阴谋已破产，若美方希望更好参与中国市场，只能通过平 等对话争取互利共赢。此次会谈中，美方展现了从对中方极限施压到谋求合作的积极态度转变，有利于 推动中美经贸合作重回正轨。 当今世界，各国经济相互依赖性强，各国的生产者和消费者通过供应链紧密相连。中美之间的贸易战， 无论是以畸高关税还是友岸外包的形式发生，都会对全球供应链布局产生巨大冲击。4月中旬，联合国 贸发会议在其报告《2025年贸易和发展展望——压力之下：不确定性重塑全球经济前景》中称，近期有 关国家采取的关税举措，正在扰乱全球供应链，并破坏其可预测性，贸易政策的不确定性处于历史高 位，导致了投资的推迟以及就业的减少。 此次中美经贸高层会谈再次明确了美国不寻求对中国"脱钩"的立场，使其他国家尤其是广大发展中国 家，得以更好遵从市场规律，加强自身 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of the "de minimis" tariff on low-value imports from China is seen as a positive development for small online businesses and companies like Shopify that support them [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The "de minimis" tariff on goods valued at $800 or less has been eliminated, which previously exempted these goods from tariffs [3]. - President Trump announced a reduction of the tariff on "de minimis" goods from 120% to 54%, with exemptions in place for 90 days as negotiations continue [4]. Group 2: Impact on Shopify - Although Shopify itself is not directly affected by the tariff changes, many of its small business customers could face increased costs due to the new tariff rates [3][5]. - The potential for higher costs for Shopify's customers could have a near-term impact on the company's earnings if the tariffs remain in place [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the current tariff situation is not a reason to avoid investing in Shopify, as the company is well-positioned to navigate the challenges posed by trade tensions [6].

Group 1 - China has not imported US LNG for nearly two and a half months since imposing a 15% retaliatory tariff in February, with imports dropping from 65,700 tons in February to zero in March compared to 412,500 tons last year [1][3] - The Chinese government is diversifying its natural gas supply channels and is not solely reliant on the US, focusing on increasing domestic production and utilizing cheaper alternatives such as coal and renewable energy [3][5] - The trade tensions have led to Canada imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [5][6] Group 2 - There is a call from various sectors in Canada for a pragmatic cooperation with China, suggesting a need to reassess past policies towards China to improve bilateral relations [7] - The Chinese ambassador to Canada emphasized the strong complementary nature of economic relations between China and Canada, particularly in the energy sector [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between the US and China to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has temporarily eased the trade war, but the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The short - term market has been strongly boosted, but the oil price has fallen from its high due to supply - side pressure and long - term tariff negotiation issues. In the short term, it is difficult for crude oil to break through without more news stimuli. The short - term range of crude oil is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Crude Oil 2506**: The fundamentals are neutral as the US - China trade agreement eases the situation, but Iraq plans to cut exports. The basis is bullish with spot premiums over futures. Inventory data is bullish as API, EIA, and Cushing inventories all decreased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory also declined. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, showing a neutral signal. WTI and Brent's main positions are long, but with different trends (WTI long positions increasing, Brent long positions decreasing), also neutral. The short - term range is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market**: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.05 (1.64%), 0.93 (1.52%), 5.90 (1.26%), and 1.15 (1.78%) respectively. In the spot market, the prices of various crude oils also rose, with the UK Brent Dtd increasing by 1.54 (2.41%), WTI by 0.93 (1.52%), Oman crude by 1.82 (2.92%), etc. [7][9] 2. Recent News - **Trade Agreement**: The US and China reached an agreement to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days, temporarily easing the trade war. However, the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The Fed officials believe that the agreement can reduce the impact of the trade war, but the remaining tariffs are still high and will have a stagflation effect on the economy [5]. - **Mexico's Oil Export**: Pemex plans to reduce its crude oil exports this year as more crude will be sent to local refineries, especially the new Olmeca refinery. Once fully operational, it can process 340,000 barrels of crude per day and will receive about 100,000 barrels per day, increasing local processing to 1.2 million barrels per day and leaving about 400,000 barrels per day for export [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and potential rapid supply - side production increases. There are also risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks. Additionally, the US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude is also at risk of sanctions, while there are signs of some easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory**: As of May 2, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.494 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 2.48 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of May 2, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 833,000 barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels [3][14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The text presents a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and Call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 [20]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 177,209, an increase of 6,254. As of May 6, it decreased by 1,781 to 175,428 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 109,941, a decrease of 18,442. As of May 6, it decreased by 12,383 to 97,558 [19].

Core Insights - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 43% of investors believe trade conflicts are the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis [1] - The second most cited source of potential credit crisis is the shadow banking sector, with 25% of investors identifying it as a concern [1] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, and the bank noted that the outcomes of US-China trade talks have "prevented economic recession or credit events" [1]

美国通胀保持稳定，市场预期后续将因关税上涨 金十数据5月13日讯，美国4月份通胀保持稳定，经济学家警告称，这可能是特朗普发动的贸易战可能导 致消费者价格飙升之前的最后一段平静期。美国2月CPI同比上涨2.3%，略低于上月的年涨幅。核心CPI 同比上升2.8%，与3月的同比升幅一致。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant adjustments made by the U.S. in the trade negotiations with China, including the cancellation of most tariffs, indicating a desire to ease trade tensions and restore trade flows [1][2][5] - The U.S. has removed 91% of the additional tariffs, while China has reciprocated by withdrawing its countermeasures, with an additional 24% of tariffs paused for 90 days [2][5] - The negotiations are seen as a response to both internal and external pressures on the U.S. government, with various stakeholders urging for a resolution to avoid economic downturns [7][9] Group 2 - Brazil's recent visit to China by President Lula, accompanied by a large business delegation, signifies Brazil's intent to secure more trade agreements, potentially capitalizing on the U.S.-China trade tensions [11][13] - Brazil aims to increase exports of traditional agricultural products and minerals to China, including soybeans, beef, and iron ore, while also seeking long-term supply contracts [13][15] - The collaboration extends to renewable energy and technology sectors, with Brazil looking to attract Chinese investment in semiconductor manufacturing and 5G network development [17][20] Group 3 - The evolving trade dynamics between China and Brazil may challenge the U.S.'s influence in Latin America, as Brazil emphasizes a non-aligned stance and seeks to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [19][22] - The U.S. technology blockade against China may face obstacles as Brazil expresses interest in collaborating on advanced technologies, potentially undermining U.S. efforts [20][22] - The article suggests that the global economic landscape is shifting towards a more diversified cooperation model, indicating that unilateral pressure from the U.S. may lead to lost opportunities [25][27]

换资前言： 谋事在人、成事在天，赢利是把握高概率胜算的前提，炒黄金不要求每次一买就准，一进就赚，一次二 次三次可以，但你无法保证每一次都对，市场没有"神"，我们要处理的是：当错误时能及时出局，而对 的时候能够吃完预定行情，出时赔小钱，赚比亏损多。很多人之所以失败不在于每次小亏损而被市场清 理，在于很多人一进不对仍然固执，不肯认输，一买就套，由亏小钱到亏大钱，想想亏小钱时都没出， 如今亏大钱更加不愿出，此时恶性循环就开始纠缠着你。怀疑能过滤风险，但也同样能错失机会，要想 抓住机会，就要勇于尝试。若胸无大志，纵使贵人相助，也终将难成其事。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二(5月13日)黄金价格反弹，因在价格触及逾一周低点后出现逢低买盘。前一交易日因中美达成关税 休战协议，市场风险偏好上升，削弱了黄金的避险吸引力，金价因此承压。目前黄金空头暂时休整，交 易者静待即将发布的美国消费者物价指数数据，该数据被视为决定下一波行情走向的关键。截至发稿， 现货黄金上涨0.6%，至3,254.美元附近。前一交易日，金价下跌2.7%，险些失守3200关口。在日内瓦经 过两天谈判后，中美宣布未来三个月 ...

关税是回去了，可美国人，却回不去了。 中美瑞士谈判落地了。 就像印巴这次直接打起来，不打不知道，一打才发现：中国军工已经能够傲视全球，到了股价和产品价格一起涨价的时候了。 表面上看，双方退回4月2日之前的状态，中美双方各自取消91%关税，暂缓24%，4月2日起加征的关税降到10%。 （图源新华社） 做外贸的立刻收到了美国客户的催单，好像一切恢复正常，但一切又不一样了。 这短短一个月的博弈，中国制造的定价逻辑、溢价规则，已经彻底重写。 接下来怎么谈？美国手里就剩下20%的关税，是之前美国借口芬太尼问题提前加上去的，而中国这边，捏着一手关键原材料。接下来的90天，是中国科技正 面突围，也是美国被釜底抽薪的倒计时。 关税真正的威慑力，不在于真打，而在于"吓人"。 一旦真打起来，市场立马开始重新定价、调整供应链、对冲风险。特别是像美国这种一梭子直接干到贸易禁运的做法，等于把全球的进出口商逼到墙角，大 家的底牌全摊在桌面上。 等你想回来，市场已经变了，正所谓"潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳"。 所以这一次，心态真的变了。 4月份中国对美出口下降21%，但整体出口却逆势上涨9.3%，因为全世界要从中国手里抢美国的市场，第一件事 ...