1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged. Gold is recommended to be bought at an opportune time, and silver is advised to be shorted on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio at an appropriate time [1]. - **Aluminum**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals support the aluminum price, which is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy is still highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance and consumption sustainability [3]. - **Lead**: The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption intensifies, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range. Interval operation is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward driving force is limited, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply changes [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The near - month supply - demand surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. It is recommended to hold short positions or short the far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. - **Multi - Crystal Silicon**: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds. When the 06 - 07 spread breaks through the previous high, consider closing long - spread positions [4]. - **Rebar**: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the rebar 2510 contract [5]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate, and the domestic soybean market will follow the international market in the medium term. Attention should be paid to trade policies and US soybean yields [7]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [7]. - **Sugar**: The market outlook is bearish [7]. - **Cotton**: An interval - oscillation strategy is recommended [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a seasonally weak stage, but the decline is not smooth. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. - **PTA**: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. - **PP**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **MEG**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The core of trading depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3300 per ounce [1]. - **News**: EU - US trade negotiations have optimistic sentiment, the "TACO" trading is popular, OPEC + will discuss production increase in July, and the Fed is more cautious about the economic outlook [1]. - **Economic Data**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels in the week of May 23, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index in May was - 9 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETF had a small outflow, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and some silver inventories changed [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at an opportune time, short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.72% to 20,185 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, and the aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. It is expected to be volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.89% to 2991 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants resumed production, and new production capacity was released, with a slight increase in operating capacity [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. The Guinean mining policy is uncertain [3]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.38% to 22,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc mining resources are relatively abundant, and the supply is relatively loose. The apparent consumption shows resilience [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 0.62% to 16,700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, the supply of primary lead is stable, and the lead consumption is weak [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range, and interval operation is recommended [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 07 contract closed at 7340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand is weak. The market is pessimistic about continuous inventory reduction [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. Wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main 2507 contract closed at 60,380 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in surplus, the production decreased by 3.23% week - on - week, the demand growth is lower than expected, and the inventory is high with a slight reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. Hold short positions or short far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. Multi - Crystal Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 07 contract closed at 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is relatively stable, the inventory has decreased, and the demand in the downstream is weak [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds, and close long - spread positions when the spread breaks through the previous high [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract closed at 2957 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production increased slightly. The inventory reduction slowed down [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract closed at 699.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply from Australia increased, and that from Brazil decreased. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract closed at 765 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased slightly, the first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell overnight due to accelerated sowing [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in South America is loose in the near term, and the US soybean sowing is going smoothly in the long term. The demand in South America is dominant in the short term, and the US soybean demand is seasonally weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and the domestic market will follow the international market in the medium term [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the deep - processing corn price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is tightening marginally, the substitution imports are expected to decrease, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5786 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is affected by imports [7]. - **Operation Strategy**: The market outlook is bearish [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic cotton price fluctuated narrowly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton budding rate in the US is behind, and the domestic textile enterprise inventory has increased slightly [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use an interval - oscillation strategy [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to rebound, with both supply and demand increasing [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in the producing areas is seasonally increasing, and the export has improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to production and policies [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract continued to decline, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, with the near - term strong and the far - term weak, and the spot price mostly fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the cost is low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The price remained at a high level with fluctuations [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather affected apple fruiting, the inventory is low, and the market is worried about the new - season output [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis weakened, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, the import is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4704 yuan/ton, down 1.3%, and the trading was light [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the export demand has eased [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX price is 836 US dollars per ton, and the PTA spot price is 4880 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply is at a neutral level, the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term, and the polyester industry has some changes [9]. - **Trading Dimension**: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2509 contract fell by 4.36% to 13,805 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material price is slightly loose, the spot buying sentiment is strong, and the inventory has changed [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, the export window is open, and the downstream demand has different performances [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price is 4494 yuan/ton, and the basis is 144 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a medium - low level, the inventory is at a medium - low level, and the polyester industry has some changes [10]. - **Trading Dimension**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC did not adjust production in July, and the US - Iran situation affects the oil price [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The core depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was strong [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and downstream inventories are expected to accumulate slightly, and the downstream demand is affected by the US - China tariff situation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11].

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Core Insights - The article discusses the journey of a trader who initially experienced success but faced significant losses due to a lack of understanding of risk management and emotional control in trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trading Experience - The trader won a domestic derivatives competition but lacked knowledge in risk control and technical analysis, attributing early success to luck [1]. - After borrowing 300,000 and investing in the Taiwan stock index, the trader lost 150,000 due to a gambling mentality, realizing the difficulty of executing the strategy of holding profitable trades and cutting losses [2]. - Subsequent attempts to apply technical analysis led to further losses, highlighting the limitations and lagging nature of many technical indicators [3][6]. Group 2: Learning and Adaptation - The trader began to study various trading strategies and technical analysis methods, seeking to improve performance after experiencing significant losses [2][5]. - A pivotal moment occurred when the trader recognized the importance of directly observing price movements rather than solely relying on technical indicators [4]. - The introduction of algorithmic trading was attempted, but it resulted in even greater losses, emphasizing the challenges of automated trading systems [6]. Group 3: Key Trading Principles - The trader eventually identified that support, resistance, and trend lines are fundamental to successful trading, allowing for a more stable trading approach [7]. - Using support lines to gauge price trends proved to be a reliable method, particularly during trend reversals [8]. - The article emphasizes that trading in the direction of established trends can enhance profit potential and speed up the realization of gains [9][10].

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商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧印度增加出口，白糖短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-28 报告内容摘要: 本公司已取得期货交易咨询业务资格，交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1445 号。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地 ...

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the futures price of urea will oscillate in the range of 1780 - 1860 yuan/ton. Although it is the agricultural demand peak season from May to June and the urea export policy has been implemented, the export volume is lower than market expectations, and relevant institutions are calling for stable prices. Yesterday, the low - price transactions in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan improved successively, and it is expected that the spot price will be slightly adjusted today [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 3 yuan to 1814 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1850 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1047 lots to 173,300 lots, and short positions increased by 449 lots to 164,100 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry was 204,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 31,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 88.96%, an 8.89% increase compared with 80.07% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons from last week, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. The urea port inventory was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57%, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine was 66.4%, an 8.3% month - on - month decrease [1] - Export Policy: The relevant association will organize self - regulated urea exports on a fertilizer - year basis. The self - regulated export volume for this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time periods will be adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [1] - Coal Price: On May 26, the global steam coal price dropped to a four - and - a - half - year low, only a quarter of the peak level during the 2022 global energy crisis, mainly due to continuous production growth and a surge in inventory [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various tools and reports designed to assist users in observing and analyzing futures market opportunities and macroeconomic trends, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in trading [1][3]. Group 1: Research Phase - The tool "China Futures Market Volatility Observation" helps users observe the volatility of different futures varieties at various frequencies, making it relatively easy to use [3]. - "China Macro Value Relative Arbitrage" assists users in observing arbitrage opportunities from a macro perspective, categorized as an advanced tool [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Variety Arbitrage Tool" enables users to identify trading opportunities in cross-variety arbitrage, also classified as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Period Price Difference Arbitrage Tool" aids in observing trading opportunities in price differences of a single variety, categorized as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market On-Site Options" helps users identify trading opportunities in futures options, classified as advanced [3]. - The "Global Macro Asset Climate Report" assists users in summarizing weekly market trends and anomalies globally, categorized as relatively easy to use [3]. Group 2: Pre-Trading Phase - "Trading Plan and Review" helps users clarify the target trading variety, entry basis, expected profit and loss, and position calculation, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Trading Position Calculation" assists users in calculating trading positions based on the Average True Range (ATR) of various trading varieties, categorized as relatively easy [3]. Group 3: Trading Phase - "Portfolio & Trading Management" is suitable for single market traders, assisting in managing investment portfolio risks, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Investment Portfolio Management Tool" is designed for multi-market and multi-asset traders, helping manage total and sub-asset account returns and risks, categorized as advanced [3]. Group 4: Review Phase - The "Trading Day's Memo" report helps users summarize daily market trends and anomalies, categorized as relatively easy [3].

上期所公告，铸造铝合金 期货合约的交易单位为10吨/手，最小变动价位为5元/吨。铸造铝合金期货合 约的交易代码为AD。 ...