有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，1 美联储理事沃勒 | | | 表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 个基点的降息空间，但无需 | | | 急于行动，将以稳步、渐进方式把利率引向中性。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示， | | 铜 | 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面， | | | LME 铜库存增加 325 吨至 166925 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 2130 吨至 414575 吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 907 吨至 44877 吨；BC 铜下降 797 吨至 6180 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏 | | | 观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情绪，短线谨慎为上。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2573 元/吨，涨幅 0.9%，持仓减仓 4202 手至 | | | 17.6 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2602 收于 2 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.81% [1] - Over 3,600 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of 1.05 trillion [1] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace concept saw a resurgence, with stocks like Shengyang Technology and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [3] - The consumer sector strengthened, particularly in retail, with Central Plaza and Shanghai Jiubai reaching the daily limit [3] - The IP economy concept was active, with stocks such as Guobo Co. and Sanxiang Impression hitting the daily limit [3] - The AI healthcare concept experienced fluctuations, with Huaren Health rising by 20% and hitting the daily limit [3] - The lithium battery sector faced a decline, with stocks like Hekai Xinyuan and CATL experiencing significant drops [3] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, focusing on structural changes in consumption [3] - Ant Group's AI health application, Antifufu, saw a surge in downloads, ranking third on the Apple App Store [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles for mass production, with several automakers announcing they received L3 road licenses [3]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for the upcoming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [1] - There is a growing discussion about the "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies prioritize cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for boosting consumption include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work conference proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on demand-side policies and structural supply-side improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The average economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be around 4.5%, with 2026 GDP growth expected at 4.8% [6] - A modern industrial system is highlighted as a key focus for cross-cyclical policies, emphasizing the transformation of traditional industries and the development of strategic emerging industries [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing a moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market is limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle regulation again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. The new regulations for public funds have led to concentrated institutional selling, increasing short - term market volatility [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to reasonable pricing. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, suggesting that the market is not pricing in a rate cut next year, and futures are slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a catch - up increase [12]. - In the short term, the demand side remains weak, and the fundamentals still support the bond market. The Fed's faster - than - expected restart of balance - sheet expansion is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. But the expectation of domestic easing has not yet heated up, and the strength of allocation funds is still cautious. The crowded trading in Treasury bond futures may be the main cause of the sharp fluctuations. The continuation of the bond market's strength depends on the persistence of easing sentiment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: Rumors of loose policies boosted the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, ignoring the strong stock market [8]. - **Interest rate bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, mostly by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.835%, down 1.75bp [9]. - **Funding market**: Tax payment periods had little impact, and the inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The central bank had 1898 billion yuan in open - market maturities and injected 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, and funding rates declined slightly. The overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, and the 7 - day rate fell 0.65bp to 1.4423%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Looking back at 2025, "supportive" was the core tone of monetary policy implementation, and it is expected to continue in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly, and better use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas and weak links of the real economy. It will also explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [13]. - After the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general requirement of "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure", the market is highly concerned about the setting of the fiscal deficit ratio for next year. Market institutions and industry insiders generally expect the deficit ratio in 2026 to be no lower than this year's level of 4%. China will continue to implement a more active fiscal policy [13]. - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move", pointed out that insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction in current economic operations. It is necessary to implement the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, form a complete domestic demand system, and expand consumer, investment, and financial demands. The key to expanding consumption is to promote employment, improve social security, optimize income distribution, and expand the middle - income group [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury bond futures**: Data on the trading of Treasury bond futures on December 17, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Money market**: Information on the inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, SHIBOR term structure and trend, etc., was presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][31]. - **Derivatives market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve were shown, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [36].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in retail stocks, with companies like Central Plaza, Yimin Group, Shanghai Jiubai, Lihua Co., and Baida Group hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, addressing the recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth [1] - The government plans to focus on structural changes in consumption and will work on boosting both supply and demand to stimulate consumption [1] Group 2 - Central Plaza's stock increased by 10.12%, with a total market value of 5.281 billion [2] - Yimin Group's stock rose by 10.11%, with a market capitalization of 5.165 billion [2] - Dongbai Group's stock saw a rise of 6.70%, with a market value of 15.5 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 158.30% [2]

谈及最新扩大内需政策对白酒的影响，中金公司在最新研报中表示：随着政策的持续深化，有望对白酒 需求端构成提振，在2025年低基数下同比有望转正，预计上半年开始行业开始迎来梯次修复。供给端， 则以创新拓展增量为主线，预计库存隐患基本解除，其中以用户需求为出发点的创新预计进一步增加， 更多企业会拥抱即时零售等线上渠道。整体来看，中金公司预计2026年白酒报表有望出清改善，上行拐 点逐步清晰。 华创证券董广阳团队也表示，2026年白酒周期将加速筑底。持续观察两大指标：一是飞天茅台批价企稳 放量时点，二是经销商亏损收窄时点，现金流企稳好转。 12月18日，大消费连续走高，零售方向领涨，百大集团走出6连板，利群股份3连板，中央商场、上海九 百、九牧王、皇氏集团、浪莎股份涨停。消息面上，顶层设计明确：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任 务，明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 相比较之下，大消费昔日的"明星板块"白酒仍在磨底，贵州茅台股价在1400元附近微弱反弹，最新报 1427元/股。飞天茅台（2025散）批价一度跌破1499元指导价后，连续4日企稳在1550元/瓶。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a rise in retail stocks, with several companies hitting the daily limit, including Central Plaza, Yimin Group, Shanghai Jiubai, Lihua Co., Baida Group, and Dongbai Group [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, addressing the recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth [1] - The government plans to focus on structural changes in consumption and will work on boosting both supply and demand to stimulate consumption [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Central Plaza with a market cap of 5.281 billion and a year-to-date increase of 13.87%, and Baida Group with a market cap of 6.547 billion and a year-to-date increase of 50.74% [2] - Dongbai Group experienced a significant rise of over 6%, with a market cap of 15.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 158.30% [2] - Other companies like Yuhua Group and New World also saw increases of over 4%, indicating a positive trend in the retail sector [2]

12月18日，大消费板块持续走高，零售、服装、食品饮料方向领涨，百大集团走出6连板，利群股份3连 板，中央商场、上海九百、九牧王、皇氏集团、浪莎股份涨停。 消息面上，中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年要把握消费的结构 性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 回顾近期，与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台，在提振居民消费预期同时，也给大消费板块行 情向好提供了助力。 业内人士认为，延续并扩大直接补贴及消费贷贴息、改善物价等，有望成为短期内值得期待的扩消费政 策；从投资角度出发，消费行业呈现底部特征，基本面触底修复构成股价"催化剂"，具备规模效应且业 绩弹性突出的连锁餐饮与新茶饮企业、赛事运营与相关服务领域的体育公司、具备稀缺IP价值并能持续 转化粉丝经济的演艺运营商等细分标的值得关注。 政策红利不断释放 在中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊看来，未来经济工作需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消 费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，在财政支出方向上，"以旧换新"政策有望延续并更多向服务消费领 域倾斜，2026年推动更多资金资源投资于人、服务民生这一政策导向或会继续强化。 临近年底消费旺季，从 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is mainly range - bound, with the short - term for IH2603 being in a range - bound state, the medium - term being in a range - bound state, and the intraday being on the stronger side. The overall short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is also range - bound, with the intraday being on the stronger side and the medium - term being in a range - bound state [1][5]. - The core logic is that policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting. The stock market had a callback and was close to the lower limit of the range, which was attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing strong support for the stock index. However, due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound | Policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is in a range - bound state, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index had an intraday rebound after an early - morning consolidation. The total stock market turnover was 181.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.59 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market's previous callback made it attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing support for the stock index. Due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, policy intensification is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year, and currently, the stock index is still in a range - bound state, but market risk appetite will gradually recover as policy - driven positive expectations ferment [5].

学习中央经济工作会议精神 第 来 关 话 以自身确定性 应对外部不确定性 0 新华社国内部出品 5月，考察河南时指出"面对复杂的外部环境，要坚定信心，坚定不移办好自己的事"；10月，在党 的二十届四中全会上强调"把发展放在自己力量基点上"；10月底，全会后首次出访向外界阐明中国"做 更好的自己，同世界各国分享发展机遇"…… 在一个更加不稳定不确定的世界中谋求发展，顶住压力、练好内功、站稳脚跟，就没有跨不过去的 坎。这背后蕴含的是自力更生、艰苦奋斗的伟大精神。 地方工作期间，习近平同志就把"自力更生"作为工作出发点：指导脱贫时，强调"要立足自力更 生，增强自身造血功能"；面对粮食安全问题，指出"靠国际市场保不了中国的粮食安全，中国人自己的 问题还是要靠自己解决"；针对能源与土地供应紧张、经济增长方式粗放等问题，开出"药方"："化压力 为动力，苦练内功，着力解决长期困扰我们的结构性、素质性矛盾和问题，真正把经济增长方式转变到 依靠科技进步和提高劳动者素质的轨道上来""靠自己，就必须有自主创新能力，必须有自力更生精 神"。 当前，世界百年变局加速演进，国际力量对比深刻调整，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，我 国发 ...