港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 若提振内需，量价有望上行 2018-19 年快递量价增速上行 2018 年 7 月-2019 年 9 月，美国对中国出口商品加征关税。在外需增长 受阻的情况下，中国扩大内需。快递服务于国内线上商品零售，受益于扩 大内需。2018 年底开始，快递行业收入增速大幅上升，快递价格从大幅 下滑转为增长，2019H1 快递单量增速也有所上升。2018 年底到 2019 年底，国内快递头部公司顺丰控股和中通快递的扣非归母净利润增速都有 所回升。 若提振内需，单量有望高增长 2025 年 4 月 8 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率 由 34%提高至 84%，税率远超 2018-19 年，对中国商品出口美国的影 响或将超过 2018-19 年。因此，中国可能加大内需刺激力度，推动国内 商品零售增长，尤其是线上零售增长，有望带动快递单量加速增长。由于 2025 年美国加关税幅度更大，刺激内需力度也要更大，才能对冲加关税 的负面影响，所以 2025 年下半年，国内快递单量增速的上行幅度，有可 能超过 2019 年。 快递价格跌幅大，或将回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand, which may lead to higher growth in delivery volumes and prices [1][2]. - The express delivery price decline reached 18% year-on-year in February 2025, but a recovery is anticipated as competition eases and demand increases [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered due to unexpected price declines, with projected net profits of 10.4 billion and 11.7 billion respectively, down from previous estimates [4]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The express delivery volume and price growth are expected to rise due to domestic demand stimulation in response to increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [2]. - The domestic express delivery market is projected to see significant volume growth, potentially exceeding the growth rates observed in 2019 [2]. Price Trends - A significant drop in express delivery prices has been noted, but a cyclical recovery is expected as market conditions improve [3]. - The competitive landscape may stabilize, leading to a narrowing of price declines, which would benefit profitability for express delivery companies [3]. Financial Projections - The report has adjusted the profit forecasts for ZTO Express, projecting net profits of 10.4 billion, 11.7 billion, and 12.4 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8, 8.8, and 8.3 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the economy amidst external pressures, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The first quarter of 2023 is expected to show a stable economic performance, with growth predicted around 5%, supported by a consumption surge during the Spring Festival and advancements in technology [2][3]. - The Chinese economy is facing challenges due to external factors, particularly the impact of the U.S. government's tariff increases, which are anticipated to affect global trade dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with specific measures to boost consumption and stabilize employment [2][4]. - Experts suggest increasing fiscal spending on consumer-related initiatives, such as unemployment benefits and subsidies for low-income individuals, to counteract the negative effects of tariffs [4]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Economists and business leaders participating in the discussion highlighted the resilience of China's supply chain and industrial capabilities, which have shown growth despite tariff pressures [4]. - The overall sentiment among domestic and international investors remains optimistic regarding China's economic prospects, supported by a solid policy environment and attractive market valuations [3].

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 在这个乍暖还寒的春日里，海外惊雷乍起。 手机推送接连震动——特朗普超预期的关税政策似灰犀牛般横冲直撞，全球风险资产在流动性冲击下犹如惊弓之鸟，一片风声鹤唳。 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布对等关税措施：对全球征收10%的基准关税，4月5日生效；对美国贸易逆差最高的60个国家征收额外关税，其中中国商品面临 34%的关税税率加征，将于4月9日生效。 随后，中国商务部迅速11箭齐发，以同等力度反击：对所有美国进口商品加征34%关税，限制中重稀土出口，并 对16家美国实体列入出口管制管控。 （来源：Choice） 特朗普2.0时代关税政策不仅针对中国，更将欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥甚至印度洋的无人企鹅岛纳入打击范围，试图通过"极限施压"重塑全球贸 易规则。 书房台灯的光正好点亮案头那本泛黄的《论持久战》，封面上毛主席的笔迹苍劲如铁。 此刻的贸易硝烟，恰似1930年代延安窑洞里的灯火，穿透时空照亮今日的迷雾。 01 灰犀牛事件的"已知"与"未知" ——特朗普关税的本质 关税，这个看似简单的经济工具，是进口国对跨境商品设置的通行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [3][26]. Core Views - The report highlights a strong recovery in tourism during the Qingming Festival, with a record 790 million cross-regional trips, a 7.1% year-on-year increase, surpassing previous forecasts. Rail and air passenger volumes also saw significant growth of 8.2% and 10.9% respectively [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of tourism consumption as a leading sector in domestic demand, driven by favorable weather and policies promoting extended holidays, which are expected to create new market opportunities [1][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector's valuation is likely to continue recovering due to ongoing government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The social services sector is rated as "Outperform" [3][26]. Industry Insights - The report notes that the Qingming Festival travel data indicates a robust recovery in tourism, with significant increases in both domestic and international travel, particularly to Japan and European destinations [1][17]. - The report identifies a trend of increased consumer interest in travel, supported by favorable weather conditions and government policies [1][17]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Ctrip Group, Tongcheng Travel, Haidilao, and Meituan are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 [4][26]. - Specific EPS and PE forecasts for key companies are provided, indicating strong growth potential in the sector [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Tongcheng Travel, Shouqi Group, Jiuhua Tourism, and others, highlighting their potential for growth in the current economic environment [3][26].

Investment Rating - The report sets the economic growth target for 2025 at "around 5%", consistent with the target for 2024, indicating a stable outlook for the economy [8][9][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policy adjustments to achieve the growth target amidst a more challenging environment, highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [20][31]. - It outlines ten key points from the government work report, focusing on economic stability, innovation, and addressing potential risks in the economy [6][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Policy - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5%", aligning with long-term growth goals despite a more complex macro environment [8][9]. - The report indicates that achieving this target will be more challenging due to insufficient effective demand and weak consumer confidence [9][10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report calls for a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate set at around 4%, marking a significant increase in government debt issuance to support economic growth [20][21]. - Monetary policy is shifting towards "moderately loose" to enhance responsiveness to economic conditions, with expectations for further liquidity support [28][29]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving living standards as key drivers of economic growth [31][32]. - The report outlines measures to enhance residents' income and stabilize employment, aiming for over 12 million new urban jobs in 2025 [31][32]. Technological Innovation - The report stresses the importance of enhancing technological innovation capabilities and fostering new productive forces to adapt to global changes [35][39]. - It highlights the need for a robust national innovation system and increased investment in key technologies [39][40]. State-Owned and Private Sector Reforms - The report emphasizes the need for deepening state-owned enterprise reforms while also promoting the development of the private economy [47][50]. - It outlines specific measures to improve the business environment for private enterprises, including reducing market entry barriers and enhancing financial support [50][52]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The report acknowledges the challenges in maintaining foreign trade and investment amid global uncertainties but reaffirms a commitment to open up the economy [54][55].

Group 1: Tariff War Overview - The United States has initiated a "tariff war" against all trade partners, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, bringing the total tariff rate to 54% since Trump's administration began [1] - China has responded with equivalent countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on all American goods [1] Group 2: Perspectives on Trump's Tariff Strategy - There are three main perspectives on Trump's tariff strategy: 1. It is seen as a deviation from economic principles aimed at fulfilling campaign promises and promoting manufacturing return [3] 2. It is viewed as part of a systematic policy to contain China, aiming to reshape a global trade system without China [4] 3. It is interpreted as a negotiation tactic, where Trump sets high tariffs to open discussions with all countries [5][8] Group 3: China's Response to Tariffs - China's immediate decision to raise tariffs is logical, as the first category of products (high-value items) is already restricted by the U.S., while the second category can be sourced from other competitors [11] - The third category involves substituting U.S. agricultural products with those from other countries, which may increase import costs but is manageable given current deflationary pressures in China [11] Group 4: Economic Context and Domestic Consumption - China is the largest manufacturing country but not the largest consumer, indicating a reliance on foreign trade due to insufficient domestic demand [14] - Past strategies to expand domestic demand have relied heavily on investment, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, but this approach is no longer sustainable [15] - A shift towards consumer-driven growth is necessary, requiring a reallocation of resources from investment to consumption [16] Group 5: Urbanization and Pension Issues - There is a significant gap between urban and rural income, with rural residents earning approximately 43% of urban income, highlighting the need for pension reforms [17] - Current pension levels are inadequate, often falling below minimum living standards, which affects the consumption capacity of rural elderly [18] - Improving pensions could enhance the consumption ability of rural families, thereby stimulating domestic demand [18][19] Group 6: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - To achieve a robust domestic consumption cycle, addressing the dual structure of urban and rural economies is crucial [20] - Systematic reforms could potentially elevate China's status from the second-largest consumer to the largest globally, reducing vulnerability to external trade pressures [21] - The current crisis presents an opportunity for significant reforms that should not be wasted [22]

Group 1 - The core objective of the government's work report is to boost consumption and investment, making domestic demand the main driver of economic growth [1] - The success of expanding domestic demand relies on residents' income levels and future income expectations, highlighting the importance of job creation and quality [1] - The development of private enterprises is crucial for increasing job opportunities and investment scale, as emphasized by President Xi Jinping [1] Group 2 - Supernormal measures are needed to cultivate and expand the private economy, aiming to significantly increase its share in the national economy and enhance innovation capabilities [2] - In 2023, private enterprises contributed over 90% of urban new employment, with 16% of private enterprises increasing their workforce [2] - From 2014 to 2024, the export volume of private enterprises grew rapidly, with their share of total national exports rising from 34.5% to 55.5% [2] Group 3 - Since 2021, private enterprises have had opportunities to expand investment, particularly in new energy sectors like electric vehicles and solar batteries [3] - In 2024, Guangzhou's private enterprise export total reached 642.24 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% and accounting for 57.1% of the city's foreign trade [3] - The "new three types" of production capacity are crucial for the development of the private economy in Guangzhou [3] Group 4 - Two theoretical paths to promote consumption upgrades are from the demand side and the supply side, with recent policies leaning towards supply-side measures [4] - The government is expected to support enterprises in technological innovation to produce quality products that consumers are willing to buy [4] - The rise of artificial intelligence represents a new opportunity for private enterprises in Guangzhou to expand their economic scale [4] Group 5 - The emergence of DeepSeek marks 2023 as a pivotal year for artificial intelligence, particularly in application sectors, providing momentum for private enterprises in Guangzhou [5] - Companies like WeRide and Pony.ai have successfully listed in the U.S., showcasing the potential of autonomous driving technology [5] - The long and complex AI industry chain requires private enterprises to identify the most cost-effective breakthrough points [6] Group 6 - The humanoid robot sector is projected to reach a market size of $7 trillion over the next 25 years, presenting significant opportunities for innovation [6] - Companies can focus on application technology innovations in specific scenarios, such as caregiving and household robots [6] - The experience of Casio in developing the Moflin robot illustrates the importance of simplifying designs to reduce costs while maintaining market appeal [7] Group 7 - Guangzhou has multiple development advantages, including a cluster of over 3,000 robot and intelligent equipment companies [8] - The establishment of a modern industrial system and special funds for technological breakthroughs supports the growth of the AI sector [8] - By leveraging the trends of "embodied intelligence + vertical scenarios," Guangzhou can achieve significant expansion in the private economy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption in light of escalating trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. imposing reciprocal tariffs [1][2] - The white liquor sector is expected to benefit from improved supply and demand dynamics, alongside low valuations, highlighting its defensive attributes and investment value [2] - The beer and beverage sectors are projected to experience a recovery, with specific companies identified as having strong growth potential [3][4] Summary by Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is seen as a cyclical beneficiary of improved demand and low valuations, with key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye expected to gain market share [2] - Structural improvements in demand are noted, with a recovery in banquet consumption and business-related spending [2] Beer and Beverage - Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer reported mixed results for 2024, with Qingdao Beer achieving revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and Chongqing Beer reporting a revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, down 1.2% [3] - The beverage sector is anticipated to maintain high growth due to competitive dynamics and recovery in consumer spending, with companies like Eastroc Beverage and Three Squirrels highlighted for their growth potential [3] Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic consumption, with exports to the U.S. being minimal, thus limiting the impact of tariffs [4] - The report identifies opportunities in the restaurant supply chain, snacks, and dairy products as key areas for growth [4]

特朗普政府昨晚宣布新一轮的对等关税，成为今天全球瞩目的重磅消息，今晚就说说具体情况以及后续 影响。 这次美国起手就是所有贸易伙伴加税10%，哪怕是极少数几个对美贸易逆差的国家，如新加坡、澳大利 亚，那也不管，先10%关税安排上。 在10%的基础上，根据各个国家对美贸易的顺差比例，再额外征收关税。比如中国顺差比例是67%，那 打对折征收34%的关税，通俗翻译就是外国商品在美国人民身上赚的钱，我美国政府要分一半。 前几年中国大力发展中转贸易，在东南亚、墨西哥开厂生产商品，再卖给美国以躲避关税。不过这一招 以后也没用了，因为这次无差别关税升级面向全球所有国家，像越南（+46%）、泰国（+36%）、印尼 （+32%）这些东盟的国家加税比例甚至比中国还高，没有必要再去那里开厂了。 越南前几年捡漏从中国流出的制造业发了笔小财，这下好日子到头，越南股市今天暴跌6.8%，如丧考 妣。 美国传统意义上的战略盟友，这次也没有获得优待，日本+24%，韩国+25%，欧盟+20%，什么盟不盟 友的，不好使，只要你从美国贸易赚钱了就得给我吐一半出来。 …… 特朗普这么做的目的是什么？ 首先肯定是吸引制造业回流。美国政府觉得资本家为了贪图 ...