前言： 市场中最可怕的不是没有行情，不是没有机会，而是茫然，乱下单，一个不知道去哪里的人，面朝哪个 方向都是逆向，任何一个方向吹来的风将都是逆风！同样不懂交易的人，不管做多做空，行情一旦波 动，就是无妄之灾！这里没有华丽的语言，只有实实在在的交易，以及明明郎朗的操作，市场只有一个 方向，不是多头也不是空头，而是做对的方向。合理的风控+好的回报，让每个散户找到真正交易的乐 趣，而不再是自己每天苦苦的交易却换来亏损的不断加大。我一直相信选择比努力更重要，一个好的指 导老师，一个好的技术团队除了给客户带来盈利以外，更应该对客户负责任。个人交易者，凭一己之力 面对市场，很容易出现当局者迷的情况，遇见暴涨暴跌而措手不及，而如果能够有一个人在圈外看清楚 情形，给出方向，就可以做的更好。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二(12月23日)亚市早盘，现货黄金再度大幅攀升，金价刚刚触及4490.75美元/盎司，创下历史新高， 金价日内飙升逾46美元。随着投资者在评估不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势以及美国进一步降息的前景， 周二，黄金价格升至历史新高，这也是今年第50天刷新纪录。在2025年岁末之际，全 ...

Group 1 - The A-share precious metals sector showed strong performance, with the precious metals index rising by 2.6%, particularly driven by the gold sub-sector [1] - Internationally, the London spot gold price reached a three-month high of $4,320 per ounce during Asian trading hours, with silver prices also increasing [1] - The strong performance of the sector is supported by multiple macro factors, including expectations of the Federal Reserve starting a rate cut cycle in the first half of 2026 and a continued weak dollar index, which provides upward momentum for gold priced in dollars [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Gold ETF continued its strong performance with an intraday increase of 0.85%, reflecting sustained market demand for safe-haven assets; it has accumulated a 27.31% increase over the past six months and a year-to-date return of 60.54%, leading among commodity ETFs [2] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 180 million yuan over the last ten trading days, with its latest scale growing to 35.56 billion yuan and a year-to-date net inflow of 12.754 billion yuan, indicating strong long-term allocation intentions [2] - The fund closely tracks the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 spot contract, directly linked to high-purity physical gold prices, and benefits from global central bank gold purchases, rising Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums, reinforcing gold's position as a key asset for inflation hedging and risk avoidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices driven by market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Gold Market - COMEX gold prices rose significantly, closing at $4480.6 per ounce, an increase of 2.13%. The domestic SHFE gold night market also saw gains, closing at 1003.08 yuan per gram, up 1.60% [2][6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming year. The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, indicated that there is substantial room for rate cuts, while Fed official Goolsbee expressed concerns about preemptive cuts given the positive inflation data from November [2][6]. - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on the Fed's future rate-cutting capacity, discussions around the selection of the next Fed Chair and the pace of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion are ongoing. The market remains cautiously optimistic due to concerns over financial market liquidity and weak employment [2][6]. - President Trump is expected to appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January, which may influence the independence of the Fed and subsequently support gold prices by suppressing the dollar index [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened market concerns regarding oil supply. The U.S. has intercepted Venezuelan oil tankers three times in two weeks, and Israel is preparing for new actions against Iran. Additionally, Ukrainian drones have targeted Russian ports in the Black Sea, further escalating risks [2][6]. - These geopolitical developments have contributed to increased market risk aversion, which in turn supports gold prices. However, there is a cautionary note regarding the potential for a market correction if gold prices rise too quickly [2][6].

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.13%报 4480.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.37%报 69.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.60%报 1003.08 元/克，沪银涨 2.30%报 16126 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 12 月 22 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 12.02 吨，当前持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日增加 533.01 吨，为 2023 年 1 月以来的最大单日增幅，当前持仓量为 16599.2 ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【#机构预计明年金价还要涨##金价飙涨原因找到了#】22日，国际贵金属价格集体走高。国际现货黄金 价格盘中突破每盎司4420美元，纽商所黄金期货主力合约一度涨超每盎司4450美元，双双创出历史新 高。美国彭博社报道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄金价格飙升的主要原 因。美国《华尔街日报》此前报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。美国 高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将涨至每盎司4900美元。#金价又涨了# 来源：@央视财经微博 【#机构预计明年金价还要涨##金价飙涨原因找到了#】22日，国际贵金属价格集体走高。国际现货黄金 价格盘中突破每盎司4420美元，纽商所黄金期货主力合约一度涨超每盎司4450美元，双双创出历史新 高。美国彭博社报道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄金价格飙升的主要原 因。美国《华尔街日报》此前报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。美国 高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将涨至每盎司4900美元。#金价又涨了# ...

面对新高，怎么办？别冲动追高！我的策略是：长期看好，等待回调。 黄金的长期逻辑（去美元化、 央行购金）依然坚固，但短期急涨后，更适合等待市场情绪冷静、出现技术性回调时，再分批布局。 那么问题来了： 你认为黄金这轮牛市，是避险情绪主导的短期冲刺，还是美元信用松动的长期起点？ 评论区聊聊你的真知灼见！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，看懂资产波动背后的核心逻辑。 朋友们注意，一个历史性的数字诞生了：现货黄金突破4449美元！单日暴涨超2.4%，天花板又被捅破 了！ 为什么这么猛？两个引擎在轰鸣：一是全球地缘局势紧张，避险资金涌入"诺亚方舟"；二是市场对明年 美联储降息的预期持续升温，持有黄金的机会成本下降。这不是偶然，这是对不确定性的集中定价。 ...

家人们，今天行情太炸裂了！油价单日暴涨2.4%，伦铜今年已狂飙36%逼近1.2万美元，黄金更是直接 冲破4400美元历史新高！这"三巨头"的集体狂欢，是陷阱还是时代级的机会？ · 黄金：可分批配置，作为资产组合的"压舱石"，但忌追高。 · 原油：谨慎看待，除非供需格局发生根本扭转。 【关键数据】 · +2.4%：油价单日涨幅 三大品种，逻辑天差地别！ 1. 油价（地缘脉冲行情）：美国拦截委内瑞拉油轮，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯油轮，地缘冲突直接把供应风险 拉满！但帮主提醒：今年油价整体已跌五分之一，全球供应过剩才是核心底色，这波上涨的持续性存 疑。 2. 铜价（长期产业趋势）：这可能是最有看点的！贸易动荡导致铜涌向美国，叠加全球矿山停产和AI 数据中心、新能源带来的爆炸性需求，创造了2009年以来最大涨幅。这更像是长期产业趋势，而非短期 炒作。 3. 黄金（避险+货币双驱动）：在美联储降息预期和全球地缘紧张的双重引擎下，避险资金汹涌而入， 现货金单日大涨2.4%，势头强劲。 帮主20年中长线视角的核心策略： · 铜：逢回调布局，AI与绿色革命的需求是长期逻辑。 A. 铜（代表未来AI与绿色需求） B. 黄金（代表避险与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4,400 per ounce, raises questions about whether this is a short-term spike or the beginning of a long-term bull market, with speculation about potential prices exceeding $5,000 in the future [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's policy shift is seen as a key driver, with expectations of interest rate cuts by 2025 due to falling inflation and a cooling job market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Central banks are increasing their gold purchases as part of a strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar, creating a stable and rigid demand for gold [3]. - Long-term geopolitical and financial risks, including tensions in the Middle East and high debt levels in Europe and the US, are reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite the historical price peak, caution is advised as gold prices are highly sensitive to monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment, with potential for significant volatility if the Fed delays rate cuts or if the dollar strengthens unexpectedly [5]. - Institutions like ANZ have predicted that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, contingent on three key variables: the initiation of a global easing cycle, a long-term depreciation of the dollar, and the normalization of geopolitical and financial uncertainties [5].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源融成） 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风 险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、 欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌冲突缓和叠加供应过剩影 响下，原油本周下跌0.93%。 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/17，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过去一周流出3.12亿美元，而 海外被动基金过去一周流入14.67亿美元；内资和外资方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year has increased, alongside heightened safe-haven trading due to the situations in the U.S. and Venezuela, leading to a significant rise in international gold prices [1]. Group 1 - International gold prices surged on Monday, surpassing the $4,400 per ounce mark, reaching both intraday and closing historical highs [1]. - As of the close, the February gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4,469.4 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 1.87% [1].