Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have increased demand for safe-haven assets, yet a strong US dollar has limited the price increase of gold [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 0.14% to $3389.49 per ounce, while spot silver surged to a 13-year high, increasing by 2.32% to $37.13 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - May retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in four months, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties and tariff pressures [3] - Revenue from automobile and parts dealers fell by 3.5%, while gas station revenue decreased by 2.0%, and service sector indicators also showed a downturn [3] - Core retail sales increased by 0.4%, suggesting that consumer spending is still supported by robust wages, but overall economic slowdown signals cannot be ignored [3] Market Analysis - Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, noted that tariffs have distorted the timing of commodity purchases, and the risk of economic slowdown is increasing in the second half of the year [3] - Typically, economic uncertainty benefits gold prices; however, the strong performance of the dollar has constrained the potential for gold price increases [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The core view is that gold prices are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally [1][2] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements: a base case (60% probability) where prices remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before declining, a bullish case (20% probability) where geopolitical tensions and inflation risks push prices to new highs, and a bearish case (20% probability) where resolution of tariff issues leads to a sharp price drop [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3 due to strong investment demand [5] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases; resilient jewelry consumption also supports prices [6] - Global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.5%, the highest level in the past fifty years, indicating strong investor preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 3: Future Economic Conditions - In Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment; a potential shift towards more moderate trade policies under Trump may also decrease market uncertainty [9] - Expectations of a shift from tightening to a neutral stance by the Federal Reserve could further diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9] - Historical data over the past 55 years shows that when investment demand declines, gold prices tend to fall, as price adjustments lead to reduced jewelry consumption and encourage inventory holders to sell [10] Group 4: Industrial Metals Outlook - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [11] - The aluminum market is particularly favored, with the report highlighting aluminum as a "future-facing" metal, constrained on the supply side by energy intensity and driven on the demand side by strong growth in AI data centers, humanoid robots, and decarbonization processes [12][13] - Citigroup forecasts a supply shortage in aluminum over the next five years at current price levels, necessitating prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that gold prices, which have surged this year, are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of a record rally [1] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [3] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements, with the base case (60% probability) suggesting prices will remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before gradually declining [5] Group 2 - In the short term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3, primarily supported by strong investment demand, driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases [6] - The long-term outlook indicates that the core logic behind the expected decline in gold prices is the decrease in safe-haven demand [7] - The report suggests that by Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment and lower the uncertainty premium in the market [9] Group 3 - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals in the medium term, despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [10] - The report highlights aluminum as a favored metal, emphasizing its future-oriented applications and the expected supply shortage that will require prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

Group 1 - The market sentiment improved due to reports indicating Iran's willingness to release tensions, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Gold prices initially surged to $3452 per ounce but later fell below $3400 during North American trading hours [1] - The decline in gold prices was attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following Iran's openness to nuclear negotiations and profit-taking by traders after reaching an eight-week high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy announcement, despite ongoing pressure for rate cuts from President Trump [3] - Economic uncertainties, including tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, may lead the Federal Reserve to delay any rate cuts [3] - Investors remain cautious regarding the Fed's future policy direction due to unclear judgments on inflation and growth [3] Group 3 - The recent gold market showed a pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, causing confusion among market participants [5] - A critical support level is identified at $3376, with resistance at $3415, indicating a potential for continued volatility [5] - The overall trend is characterized as sideways, with the possibility of further adjustments before a clear direction is established [5] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests buying near $3376 with a stop loss at $3368, targeting $3410-15, while also considering short positions if $3415 is not breached [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of providing useful insights to investors and maintaining a disciplined approach to trading [7]

特朗普呼吁撤离德黑兰引发避险买盘，金价走高 金十数据6月17日讯，在美国总统特朗普呼吁立即撤离德黑兰后，亚洲早盘交易时段金价走高。随着投 资者密切关注以色列与伊朗的敌对行动，避险需求得到提振。现货黄金一度上涨0.4%，突破3400美元/ 盎司关口，此前周一曾下跌1.4%，创一个月来最大单日跌幅。特朗普在社交媒体发文要求撤离伊朗首 都数小时前，他刚敦促伊朗领导人签署限制核计划的协议。 现货黄金 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-06-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 792.3 | -2.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8858 | 67 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 176263 | -91 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 412329 | -1270 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 146632 | -398 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 105018 | 8601 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18177 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1194931 | -15124 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 8782 | 7987.49 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 793.5 | -8049.5 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 7989.7 | 7989.55 沪银主力合约基差(日, ...

黄金期货回吐涨幅 盘中一度逼近历史新高后回落 金十数据6月16日讯，数据显示，黄金期货在盘中触及历史新高附近后回吐涨幅，期货价格下跌0.5%， 报每盎司3,433.90美元。此前合约开盘价接近3,509.90美元/盎司的历史高点。荷兰国际集团分析师在报 告中指出，上周五中东紧张局势升级推动避险需求激增，带动贵金属价格上涨。分析师称，若以色列与 伊朗的冲突在未来几日进一步激化，金价有望刷新历史高点。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑： 6 月 13 日美伊核谈判达成无望， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trends of gold and silver are diverging. Investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of Middle East geopolitical situations on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting's statements on inflation, economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term pullbacks are considered mid - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, the trends of COMEX gold and silver continued to diverge. Gold rose due to the influx of safe - haven funds caused by the escalation of the Iran - Israel conflict. In contrast, after silver repaired the gold - silver ratio to around 90 in early June, its short - term upward momentum weakened and it continued to fluctuate and adjust. The precious metals sector also benefited from the lower - than - expected US CPI and PPI inflation data released during the week, which led to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Additionally, China and the US held trade negotiations in the UK, and China's Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the US had reached a framework agreement in principle [2]. 3.2. Fund and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 6.28 tons to 940.5 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 33.93 tons to 14,675.36 tons [3]. - **Short - term Fund Holdings (as of June 10 CFTC report)**: Gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 424 contracts to 187,481 contracts (with 987 fewer long positions and 563 fewer short positions). Silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 5,880 contracts to 66,650 contracts (with 3,211 more long positions and 2,669 fewer short positions) [3]. - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.2 tons to 1,175.4 tons; COMEX silver inventory increased by 116.4 tons to 15,503.85 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 18.177 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1,210.1 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory (as of the week of June 6) decreased by 28.2 tons to 1,319.3 tons [3]. 3.3. This Week's Focus - **Data**: This week's data is generally light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday night, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4]. - **Events**: The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision on Tuesday. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision and economic outlook summary, and at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary - policy press conference. At 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision [4]. 3.4. Price and Inventory Position Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE Gold Main Contract is at 794.36 yuan/gram (up 9.2 yuan, 1.17%); SGX Gold TD is at 790.86 yuan/gram (up 10.5 yuan, 1.35%); CME Gold Main Contract is at $3,452.6/ounce (up $46.2, 1.36%); SHFE Silver Main Contract is at 8,791 yuan/kg (down 28 yuan, - 0.32%); SGX Silver TD is at 8,793 yuan/kg (up 23 yuan, 0.26%); CME Silver Main Contract is at $36.37/ounce (down $0.04, - 0.11%); SHFE - TD Gold is at 3.5 yuan/gram (down 1.3 yuan, - 27.08%); SHFE - TD Silver is at - 2 yuan/kg (down 51 yuan, 145%); CME Gold - Silver Ratio is 94.9299 (up 1.3732, 1.47%) [6]. - **Inventory and Position**: SHFE gold inventory is 18,177 kg (up 330 kg, 1.85%); CME gold inventory is 1,175.3935 tons (unchanged, 0%); SHFE gold position is 176,354 lots (up 4,003 lots, 2.32%); SPDR gold position is 940.49 tons (up 2.58 tons, 0.28%); SHFE silver inventory is 1,210.055 tons (down 16.095 tons, - 1.31%); CME silver inventory is 15,503.851 tons (up 8.0727 tons, 0.05%); SGX silver inventory is 1,319.325 tons (down 28.215 tons, - 2.09%); SHFE silver position is 413,599 lots (down 19,071 lots, - 4.41%); SLV silver position is 14,675.362203 tons (down 53.7163 tons, - 0.36%) [16][17]. 3.5. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.145 (up 0.2927, 0.3%); the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate is 7.1892 (up 0.0001, 0%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,197.79 points (down 769.83 points, - 1.79%); WTI crude oil spot is at $72.98/barrel (up $4.94, 7.26%); LmeS copper 03 is at $9,647.5/ton (down $43, - 0.44%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (up 0.05%, 1.15%); the 10 - year US real interest rate is 2.13% (up 0.02%, 0.95%); the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.45% (down 0.01%, - 2.17%) [23].