Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for a comprehensive green transformation in agriculture, which opens new avenues for banks to serve the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Agricultural Green Transformation - The green transformation of agriculture requires long-term financial investment, with banks playing a crucial role as "blood suppliers" and "empowerers" [1] - The transformation faces challenges such as long cycles, strong public welfare nature, and unclear returns, necessitating banks to incorporate green transformation indicators into their credit rating systems [1][2] - Key areas for resource allocation include comprehensive utilization of livestock manure, research and development of green agricultural machinery, and carbon sequestration in planting [1] Group 2: Financial Product Innovation - The mismatch between traditional credit products and the needs of green transformation leads to issues of "difficult and expensive financing" [2] - Banks should innovate financial products tailored to the unique attributes of green agriculture, simplifying approval processes and adopting a "one-time approval, on-demand lending" model [2] - New collateral models should be explored, including loans backed by forestry carbon credits and pollution rights, to broaden financing channels for green agriculture [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The green transformation is a systemic project requiring collaboration among government, banks, enterprises, and farmers [3] - Banks need to break down "information silos" and strengthen cooperation with various departments to create a shared agricultural public information data platform [3] - Financial technology should be leveraged to enhance the accessibility and convenience of green financial services, particularly in rural areas [3] Group 4: Financial Responsibility and Goals - The comprehensive green transformation of agriculture is essential for food security and environmental improvement, presenting significant opportunities for banks [3] - Banks should integrate green development concepts into their agricultural financial services, ensuring continuous financial support flows into key areas of agricultural green transformation [3]

Economic Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain moderate growth, with GDP growth projected to reach around 3.5% in 2026 [1][15] - From 2025 to 2029, the economy is anticipated to sustain a growth rate of approximately 3%, significantly higher than developed economies in Europe and the US, which are below 2% [15] Financial Stability - Hong Kong's financial system remains robust amid global economic uncertainties, supported by a stable institutional framework and healthy fiscal conditions [1][19] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened multiple times to maintain exchange rate stability, which has increased market liquidity [2] Trade Dynamics - Hong Kong's overall export value decreased by 7.8% in 2023 but is expected to rebound with an 8.7% growth in 2024, indicating a recovery in external demand [7] - By the first nine months of 2025, exports continued to rise, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [7] Service Sector Growth - The service trade structure is optimizing, with financial, professional services, and high-end logistics expanding under policy guidance [10] - Increased demand for high-end services from mainland China is providing new external markets for Hong Kong's service exports [10] Internal Support Mechanisms - The government's budget aims to consolidate recovery momentum and enhance development capabilities, with GDP growth of 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [11][19] - Private consumption and fixed capital formation are showing positive growth, contributing to the overall economic recovery [11] Innovation and Industrial Upgrading - The government is accelerating re-industrialization and innovation through funding and support for advanced manufacturing and research projects [22] - Hong Kong is enhancing its role as a hub for cross-border private wealth management and hedge funds, with a growing venture capital ecosystem [22] Green Finance Initiatives - The government has issued approximately 240 billion HKD (about 31 billion USD) in green bonds, establishing a key pricing benchmark in the market [23] - The expansion of green finance is enhancing Hong Kong's financial system's resilience and international influence [23] Spatial Economic Development - The Northern Metropolis development strategy aims to create a diverse industrial system, integrating innovation, high-end services, and education [24] - This initiative is expected to foster a complete ecosystem from R&D to high-end manufacturing, promoting long-term growth [24]

2025年11月16日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面仍具备上行驱动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：下周成都行业大会，关注情绪提振 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：动力和储能需求短期转弱，矿端发运起量，上方承压 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：镍价破位下行，预计承压震荡。从基本面来看，现实仍然是以冶炼累库矛盾为主，全球 精炼镍显性库存维持累增，边际内盘累库更多导致进口亏损稍有扩大，同时，预期端亦呈现供增需弱，市 场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，且镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，而纯镍投产仍有增加的预期， 叠加远端低成本湿法路径 ...

Core Viewpoint - Green finance is not only a core engine driving the green transformation of the economy and society but also a solid shield for achieving the vision of a beautiful China [1] Group 1: Green Finance Initiatives - Numerous green finance policies have emerged in recent years, with financial institutions actively increasing green credit [1] - The "green credit" initiatives are transforming ecological resources into shared capital and turning carbon reduction costs into development dividends [1] Group 2: Case Study - Bamboo Industry in Longyou County - In Longyou County, the bamboo industry is becoming a significant force in achieving the "dual carbon" goals, but funding remains a challenge for industry upgrades [2] - Longyou Rural Commercial Bank has launched specialized credit products such as "Government-Bank Guarantee," "Ecological Chain Loan," and "Green Transition Loan" to support the bamboo industry [3] - As of the end of October, the bank has issued loans to 45 bamboo industry clients, with a total balance of 119 million yuan [3] Group 3: Case Study - Waste Carbon Recycling - In Jiande City, a company specializing in the recycling of waste activated carbon faced financing challenges but received support from Jiande Rural Commercial Bank [4] - The bank provided a credit limit of 49 million yuan, with 24 million yuan allocated for technological upgrades and 19 million yuan for working capital [4] - The company implemented energy-saving technologies, achieving a carbon reduction of 37,500 tons and generating direct economic benefits of 110 million yuan [5] Group 4: Impact of Green Finance - Green finance is effectively converting "green mountains and clear waters" into "golden mountains and silver mountains," contributing to rural revitalization [6]

■本报记者 陈衍水 近日，兴业银行落地了系统内首笔VEP质押贷款，以国家AAAA级风景区——四川西昌邛海湿地景区 一、二、三期特定地域生态价值（VEP）为质押，向项目运营方投放贷款1亿元。 据介绍，VEP是特定地域空间内，以生态系统为基础的适宜产业在未来一定开发期限内所能产生的各类 生态产品收益的价值总值，主要体现为物质供给、调节服务和文化服务三大类生态产品价值。VEP质押 贷款是兴业银行发挥绿色行业研究优势，以生态产品的供给服务、调节服务和支持服务等生态价值的核 算量化作为质押创设的一种绿色贷款产品，评价指标主要包括植被生物量、水源涵养、气候调节、释 氧、生态系统固碳、生物多样性维持等多方面。 邛海湿地景区一、二、三期VEP超4亿元，具有涵养水源、调节城市气候、净化水质、提供动植物栖息 等多重功效。 "我们通过给绿水青山标注'看得见'的价值，有效解决因生态资产难评估、评估结果难应用导致的生态 项目融资难等问题，是我行在生态产品价值实现领域的又一创新实践。"兴业银行绿色金融部相关负责 人表示。 作为国内绿色金融先行者，兴业银行深入践行"两山"理念，积极开发具有生态价值实现意义的特色产 品，在全国率先落地碳排放 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Construction Bank is enhancing its support for green finance and rural revitalization through innovative financing solutions, focusing on unique agricultural industries and ecological resources in Fujian province [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Group 1: Financial Support and Innovations - As of the end of October, Fujian Construction Bank's agricultural loan balance reached nearly 130 billion yuan, with over 110 unique agricultural industries benefiting from specialized financing services [1] - The bank has provided over 500 million yuan in "Rural Revitalization Loans" to support farmers like Zhang Wenyue, helping them reduce financing costs and invest in green agricultural technologies [2] - The bank has developed a comprehensive financing solution for forestry projects, offering 118 million yuan in loans for a 16-year period, facilitating the transformation of ecological resources into economic value [4][6] Group 2: Agricultural and Ecological Development - The bank's "Financial Spring Rain" initiative has supported over 80,000 farmers in Fujian, promoting the growth of various agricultural sectors, including mushrooms, aquaculture, and tea [3] - Fujian Construction Bank has engaged in carbon finance initiatives, such as the "Carbon Credit Loan" model, to enhance the financial attributes of forestry and promote sustainable practices [5][6] - The bank has established a rural property rights trading platform, facilitating transactions exceeding 5.8 billion yuan, covering 42 counties in Fujian and extending to neighboring provinces [5][6] Group 3: Tourism and Rural Revitalization - The bank has launched tailored "Rural Homestay Loans" to support the development of tourism in rural areas, enabling local businesses to upgrade their facilities and attract more visitors [6][7] - Fujian Construction Bank has invested over 30 billion yuan in loans related to the forestry industry, benefiting more than 1,000 stakeholders in the sector [6] - The bank's comprehensive financial services have contributed over 30 billion yuan in loans to support the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, enhancing the appeal of rural areas to tourists [7]

Group 1 - The seminar focused on the innovative development of non-governmental diplomacy, emphasizing cultural values, social organization internationalization, and AI empowerment [1][5] - Experts highlighted the importance of cultural diversity and criticized the Western narrative of universal values, advocating for mutual learning among civilizations [3] - The Shanghai Economic and Trade Mediation Center and the China Rural Development Foundation shared successful practices in social organization, demonstrating effective international cooperation through various projects [3] Group 2 - Climate diplomacy was identified as a significant area for non-governmental engagement, with social organizations encouraged to promote green finance international cooperation [4] - The use of new media and internet platforms was emphasized for enhancing non-governmental diplomacy, leveraging influencers to create emotional resonance and value recognition [4] - The role of AI in reshaping non-governmental diplomacy was discussed, showcasing its potential to lower participation barriers and facilitate cross-cultural communication [4] Group 3 - The seminar concluded that non-governmental diplomacy is evolving towards diversified stakeholders, professional cooperation, and youth engagement, necessitating improved institutional support and simplified processes [5] - Future efforts should integrate resources from government, social organizations, businesses, and the public, using culture as a bridge and technology as a facilitator for deeper development [5]

Core Insights - The construction of Shanghai as a strong international financial center is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing cross-border financial convenience and developing a robust asset management and risk management center [1][8][10] Group 1: Financial Market Developments - Shanghai's financial market has seen a total transaction volume exceeding 29.68 trillion yuan (approximately 4.5 trillion USD) from January to September, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [4] - The Shanghai shipping index futures, launched over two years ago, have become active and stable, attracting attention from domestic and international financial professionals [2][3] - The international reinsurance center in Shanghai has attracted 26 insurance institutions, with 128 institutions having trading permissions, covering 14 countries and regions [3] Group 2: Financial Innovation and Talent Development - The introduction of the digital RMB international operation center and the successful issuance of offshore bonds in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone are part of ongoing financial reforms [2][3] - The need for a strong talent pool in finance is highlighted, particularly in emerging fields such as green finance and digital finance, emphasizing the importance of professionals who understand international financial laws and compliance [9][10] - The collaboration between technology and finance is underscored, with companies like Moer Thread, a domestic GPU manufacturer, showcasing the synergy between capital markets and technological innovation [5][6] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The Shanghai government is committed to deepening financial market reforms and promoting high-level financial openness, leveraging the Free Trade Zone for innovative cross-border financial services [8][10] - The recent launch of multiple futures options products reflects a strategic move to provide flexible risk management tools for enterprises [7] - The focus on serving the real economy and national strategies is evident, with initiatives aimed at enhancing financial services for aging populations and supporting new trade models [7][8]

Core Insights - The Agricultural Bank of China, Shandong Province, has introduced the "Ecological Value Loan" to facilitate financing for ecological products and streamline the loan process, thereby enhancing credit limits and reducing interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Financial Innovations - The bank has established an ecological value "green list" and a "green financial project database" to support the implementation of the ecological value realization mechanism in Shandong Province [1] - The "Ecological Value Loan" product aims to address the challenges of "difficult to mortgage" and "difficult to realize" ecological products by simplifying the loan procedures [1] Group 2: Targeted Financial Services - The bank provides comprehensive financial services through an "online + offline" model, tailored to meet the needs of "Ecological Value Loan" clients [1] - Financial products offered include loans for rural collective economic organizations, farmer cooperatives, and individual rural production operations, with interest rate discounts of 5 to 10 basis points for key clients on the green list [2]

在开放的经济条件下，绿色贸易发展必须具有全球视野。会议要求"拓展相关产品和技术进出口""加快 建立与国际接轨的绿色低碳产品、技术和服务标准体系"，具有很强的现实针对性和战略前瞻性。近年 来，围绕绿色低碳发展、生态环境问题的国际博弈日趋激烈。积极参与国际标准制定，推动国际标准互 认，不仅是破除潜在"绿色壁垒"的技术手段，更是在全球绿色治理中提升话语权、增强软实力的战略举 措，将为我国先进的绿色产品、技术和服务开拓更广阔的国际市场，实现高水平"引进来"和高质量"走 出去"的良性互动。 绿色贸易是一条强有力的纽带，连接国内高质量发展与全球绿色低碳转型。将绿色低碳理念深度融入贸 易强国建设，是我们在新时代把握发展主动权的重要抉择，需要全社会凝聚共识，形成合力，沿着这条 充满希望的绿色航道，驶向更加可持续、更具韧性的未来。 宏伟目标需要坚实有力且高效协同的政策体系作为保障。会议提出要"加快完善绿色贸易政策制度体 系，加强与产业、科技、财税、金融等政策衔接协同"。这指明了推动绿色贸易发展的方法论——系统 性推进。单一的政策工具已不足以应对复杂的绿色低碳转型挑战，必须打好组合拳。产业政策需精准引 导绿色低碳产业投资布局，科 ...