Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, although some sectors showed marginal price improvements [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline, while food prices fell by 0.2%, less than the seasonal average decline of 1.1% [1][2] Group 2 - In May, the year-on-year decline in energy prices was 6.1%, which was the main factor affecting the CPI, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall decline [2] - The core CPI's increase of 0.6% year-on-year was supported by rising prices in various categories, including gold jewelry (up 40.1%), household textiles (up 1.9%), and durable goods for entertainment (up 1.8%) [2] - The PPI's decline was influenced by international factors, particularly the decrease in international crude oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the PPI decline [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] - Core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [2][3] - Prices of gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, while fuel and new energy vehicle prices fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, showing a narrowing decline [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][3] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to weak commodity prices and significant input price pressures, particularly in the coal, steel, and cement sectors due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][4] - Some sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.6% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for domestic prices suggests a likely moderate recovery in CPI, with food prices expected to remain stable and energy prices potentially rebounding [4] - PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, but it may take time to exit negative territory, influenced by external trade dynamics and domestic demand recovery [4] - Key areas to monitor include ongoing input price pressures, recovery in domestic demand, particularly in real estate, and trends in core consumption [4]

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in London, attended by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified companies to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions aimed at further ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent and difficult issues faced by the public [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the activities of Chinese naval vessels in relevant waters fully comply with international law and conventions [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports in the first five months of this year, with trade with the U.S. decreasing by 8.1% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] International News - Japan's chief negotiator Akira Amari plans to visit the U.S. this week regarding tariffs [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S. proposal concerning the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past five and ten years[6] - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month decline of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.7%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, indicating continued weak performance[26] - Production material prices were under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, affecting the overall industrial producer price level by about 2.98 percentage points[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service prices showed stronger recovery compared to consumer goods, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods continued to decline[9] - Transportation and communication prices experienced significant month-on-month declines, with transportation fuel prices dropping by 3.7%[11] - Core CPI, excluding energy, saw an increase, indicating a recovery in non-energy consumer goods and services driven by policy support and holiday effects[25]

Inflation Data Summary - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative year-on-year CPI[7] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point expansion in the growth rate[10] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable at 0.0%[10] PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points[7] - The decline in production material PPI was 4%, with mining, raw materials, and processing prices dropping by 11.9%, 5.4%, and 2.8% respectively[10] - The PPI for living materials saw a smaller decline of 1.4% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[10] Key Influences - Major contributors to the CPI decline included a 12.9% drop in transportation fuel prices and a significant decrease in fresh vegetable prices, which fell by 8.3% year-on-year[10] - The PPI was primarily pressured by international input factors, weak domestic demand, and excess capacity in certain industries[10] - The outlook for PPI remains cautious, with potential further pressure expected due to weakening export effects[10] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the need for policies to boost consumer demand, as the recovery in resident consumption is crucial for CPI stabilization[10] - Strengthening social security and increasing residents' income are highlighted as key measures to enhance consumption[10] - The report warns of risks including slower-than-expected consumption recovery, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[31]

非农数据后，黄金适当降温，本周CPI能否改变格局？点击观看GMA助教老师小莫直播分析 相关链接 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of decline [1] - The month-on-month CPI turned negative, dropping by 0.2%, influenced primarily by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline [3][7] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while some fresh fruits and fish experienced price increases due to supply constraints [7] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, the largest drop since August 2023, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [3] - The PPI decline was attributed to international input factors and domestic energy and raw material price decreases, with coal and steel industries facing overcapacity and intense competition [5][6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was exacerbated by a high comparison base from the previous year, leading to a 0.6 percentage point increase in the decline rate [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The overall consumer market remains weak, with durable goods facing intense competition and limited price increases, while service consumption is recovering slowly [6] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, with core CPI rising by 0.6% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for specific consumer goods [8] - Future CPI trends are expected to stabilize and gradually rise, supported by seasonal agricultural production and ongoing government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To promote reasonable price recovery, it is essential to implement comprehensive measures, including enhancing consumer policies and improving social security systems [9] - The focus should be on stimulating demand in durable goods and service sectors, while also addressing income levels through industrial upgrades and job creation [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The PPI may experience a slow recovery, influenced by global economic uncertainties and domestic structural adjustments, with high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors driving demand [12] - The resolution of overcapacity issues will take time, and the pace of PPI recovery may be gradual, affected by various external and internal factors [12]

近几个月CPI的走势说明，国内由市场引导的供求总量失衡态 势仍在发展中。这种现象会进一步弱化企业预期、打击企业信 心，进而使居民消费活动向更谨慎的态势发展，为此要高度重 视并尽快扭转此态势。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 6月9日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025年5月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%， CPI同比增速已连续四个月出现负增长 。1—5月平 均，CPI比上年同期下降0.1%。 具体来看，5月蔬菜价格同比降幅由上月的-5.0%扩大到-8.3%，猪肉价格同比涨幅也出现回落。此外，受5月上旬国际原油价格走低影响，当月国内成 品油价格下调，能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点，是导致5月CPI同比下降的主要因素。 5月CPI数据发布当天，东方金诚宏观研究发展部发布的报告提出，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格，更能反映基本物价水平的核心CPI同比持续处于 1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，其中 消费需求不足是主要原因。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，近几个月CPI的走势说明，国内由市场引导的供求总量失衡态 ...