Core Viewpoint - The second quarter earnings reports for S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations, with profits growing by 12% year-over-year, significantly higher than the 5% forecast made by analysts in July [4][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The earnings growth was primarily driven by the communication services and information technology sectors, which accounted for two-thirds of the overall profit increase, largely due to strong performances from companies like Meta Platforms and Microsoft [5][6]. - Despite the overall positive earnings, many sectors, such as packaging, oil and gas drilling, and real estate investment trusts, faced challenging conditions, indicating a polarized economic environment [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Corporate executives expressed a more optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy compared to the previous quarter, with a significant decrease of 84% in the number of earnings calls mentioning "recession" [4][5]. - However, there are mixed signals in recent economic data, with inflation reports showing contradictory trends and a notable drop in non-farm payrolls, indicating potential economic headwinds [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has seen a rise of over 20% since its low in April, despite recent declines due to tech stock sell-offs, with an overall year-to-date increase exceeding 9% [5][6]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies stands at 22.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, above the 10-year average of 18.8 times, raising concerns about limited room for error in the market [8]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector has been a major driver of the market rebound, although it has recently faced selling pressure, leading to a rotation into other sectors such as energy, healthcare, and consumer staples [8]. - Some analysts suggest that the recent market movements reflect sector rotation rather than a broad market sell-off, indicating potential for further valuation appreciation in technology stocks amidst rising spending [8].

撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 David Sabatini ，1968 年出生于美国纽约，因 mTOR 相关研究而闻名世界。1994 年，在博士期间，他发现了 mTOR 蛋白，并揭示了它是雷帕霉素的直接作用 靶点。1997 年博士毕业后，他加入了 麻省理工学院 Whitehead 研究所，建立了自己的实验室， 2006 年拿到终身教职，2008 年入选 HHMI 研究员，2016 年 当选美国国家科学院院士 （时年48岁） 。 年少成名的 David Sabatini ，科研生涯可谓一帆风顺，对 mTOR 的功能、调控及其在癌症等疾病中的作用做出了众多关键贡献。迄今为止， 他发表了超过 200 篇论文，其中有超过 70 篇论文发表于 Cell 、 Nature 、 Science 三大顶刊，论文总被引次数超过 19万，H 指数高达 160。 而这些荣誉与辉煌，在 2020 年 10 月戛然而止。一位女性研究员向 麻省理工学院 Whitehead 研究所的新任所长投诉，称 David Sabatini 对其进行了 性骚扰 。 2021 年 8月， David Sabatini 被迫从 麻省理工学院 W ...

Group 1 - The earnings season for Q2 in the US stock market is nearing its end, with S&P 500 companies reporting revenue and profit that exceeded expectations, showing a 12% year-over-year profit growth, significantly higher than the 5% growth forecasted by analysts in July [1][3] - The number of earnings calls mentioning "recession" has decreased by 84%, indicating a more optimistic outlook from corporate executives regarding the US economic prospects compared to the previous quarter [3][4] - Despite the overall positive earnings, two sectors, communication services and information technology, accounted for two-thirds of the profit growth, driven by strong performances from companies like Meta Platforms and Microsoft [5][6] Group 2 - Many industries, such as packaging, oil and gas drilling, and real estate investment trusts, are facing more challenging conditions, with some companies struggling to maintain their positions without the boost from AI spending [6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding government policies has made it difficult for executives to plan or invest, potentially impacting consumer spending [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies is 22.5 times the expected earnings for the next 12 months, higher than the 10-year average of 18.8 times, raising concerns about the sustainability of the market rally [7]

美股二季度财报季本周接近尾声，已公布的财报数据显示，标普500指数成份股企业营收和利润超预 期，利润同比增长12%，远高于分析师7月给出的5%的增幅预期。包含"衰退"的电话财报会议数量也下 降了84%。 细分来看，其中三分之二盈利增长仅来自通信服务和信息技术两个板块，更多行业和企业则面临艰难情 况。 二季度盈利增长超预期 本周，伴随沃尔玛(Walmart)、家得宝(Home Depot)和Target等大型零售商业绩的公布，美股二季度本财 报季将基本结束。在美国总统特朗普4月初宣布对进口商品征收全面对等关税后，美股上市企业业绩预 期被下调。但据FactSet的数据，标普500指数成分股公司二季度的利润预计将同比增长约12%，远高于 分析师在7月初预测的5%的增幅。同时，企业高管对于美国经济前景的预判，也比一季度时乐观。据机 构AlphaSense的数据，包含"衰退"一词的财报电话会议的数量下降了84%。 这些信号提振了美国主要股指在最近几周接连创历史新高。最近几个交易日，在科技股抛售拖累下，标 普500指数连跌四个交易日。即便如此，标普500指数目前仍较4月低点攀升逾20%，今年以来的累计涨 幅超过9%。 最 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net flows for FY 2025 were $15,800,000,000, a 40.4% increase from the prior corresponding period [2] - Funds under administration (FUA) grew to $112,800,000,000, a 28.2% increase [3] - Total income reached $324,400,000, representing a 27.1% increase [3] - EBITDA was $163,500,000, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 50.4%, a 3.2% increase from the previous year [3] - NPAT surged to CAD116.5 million, a 39.8% increase [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Managed accounts grew by 33.5%, while managed funds increased by 21.9% [4] - Domestic trade volume increased by 28.5%, and international trade volume surged by 121.9% [5] - Ancillary fee income grew by 32.8% [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s market share increased to 8.7%, up 1.1% [18] - The platform market is growing at $1,200,000,000,000 with a two-year CAGR of 10.2% [18] - There are 7,200,000 Australians with complex financial circumstances seeking advice, with only 10,000 to 11,000 advisors available [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s strategy focuses on wealth solutions, wealth tech, insights and analytics, and partnerships [9][10] - Plans to enhance digital capabilities and user experience through a major upgrade to the user interface [12][13] - The company aims to create capacity internally and reduce reliance on third-party systems [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company expects strong flows and account growth, with a well-diversified pipeline [44] - Management is optimistic about new offerings and investments in key market segments [45] - The outlook for full net flows is expected to be similar to the previous year, with strong profitability and cash generation [46][47] Other Important Information - The company declared a final dividend that is 50% higher than the previous year, equating to a 90% payout ratio [37] - The company added over 80 employees, with 55% focused on growth initiatives [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide the actual number of flows? - The exact number was not disclosed, but it was in the vicinity of about 45% [50] Question: What drove the elevated trading fees? - Significant tailwinds from the shift to T+1 for U.S. equity trading and elevated volatility contributed to increased transaction volumes [52][53] Question: What is the organic growth rate from existing clients? - Most firms are experiencing organic growth rates between 15-20% [55] Question: How do you manage the intersection of growth and margin versus investment? - The company aims to invest appropriately to maximize efficiencies while optimizing opportunities [63] Question: What are the expectations for revenue margins into FY 2026? - Transaction fees are expected to be good, but some one-off benefits from the previous year may not be replicated [104] Question: What is the outlook for operating expenses? - Expected operating expenses are around $190,000,000, excluding any potential impacts from ongoing investigations [75]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding monetary policy have become more pronounced, highlighting the complexities faced by decision-makers amid concerns over tariffs, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Disagreements - The FOMC's meeting minutes revealed that two officials voted against maintaining the current interest rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to mitigate potential labor market deterioration [4]. - Most officials believe that the risks of rising inflation outweigh the risks of declining employment, indicating a split in perspectives on economic conditions [4][5]. Inflation Risks - Officials expressed concerns about the uncertain impacts of tariff policies on inflation and the potential instability of inflation expectations [6]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with recent increases in goods price inflation attributed to tariffs [7]. Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook remains high, with officials emphasizing the dual mandate of full employment and price stability facing significant risks [5][6]. - Many officials expect inflation to rise in the short term, influenced by the timing and magnitude of tariff increases implemented by the previous administration [7]. Financial Stability Concerns - The minutes highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, particularly high asset valuations, which have raised concerns among officials [10]. - Recent sell-offs in high-valuation tech stocks have been noted, with market participants expressing caution regarding the sustainability of these valuations [10]. Stablecoin Implications - Officials discussed the potential rise of stablecoins following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which could enhance payment system efficiency but also raise concerns about their impact on the financial system and monetary policy [11]. - The need for close monitoring of the assets backing stablecoins was emphasized, given their potential influence on the banking system and financial stability [11].

到了儿子的生日派对，大部分AI给出的点子类似——泡泡、绘画、游戏等。我还担心女儿在弟弟的派 对中失落，Copilot难得提出一个富有创意的方案——为姐姐制作一份"荣誉证书"。虽然实际操作中颇费 周折，但这一举动增进了姐弟情感。 回顾整个过程，我承认AI无法替代父母的经验，却能在一定程度上减轻负担。相比以往依靠零散搜索 与经验拼凑，如今的信息更加集中、简洁，也让我更有条理地应对育儿挑战。Gemini像一位乐于助人的 朋友，Riley则通过鼓励交流帮助我更好地理解孩子。育儿从来没有标准答案，能多一些支持，就多一 份安心。尽管最初心存怀疑，但这一周的实验让我开始接受AI作为新的育儿伙伴。（作者海伦·多根， 蒋礼译） 英国《泰晤士报》 8 月 18 日文章：尝试 AI" 带娃 " ，一周实验带来惊喜与挑战 养育孩子向来没有现成的说 明书。面对无休止的琐事与突发状况，我决定展开一场独特的实验：在一周时间里，将人工智能 （AI）当作"共同育儿者"，把日常育儿的疑问交给4个不同的AI助手：ChatGPT、Gemini、Copilot和 Riley。 最初的尝试集中在日常安排。我希望AI能帮助我规划活动，并为挑食的两岁儿子设 ...

Core Viewpoint - Google has launched the Pixel 10 series, which includes four smartphones and new wearable devices, integrating advanced AI features and new hardware technologies to compete in the market against Apple and other Android brands [1][5]. Product Launch Details - The Pixel 10 series consists of four smartphones priced from $799 to $1799, including the Pixel 10, Pixel 10 Pro, Pixel 10 Pro XL, and the foldable Pixel 10 Pro Fold. Additionally, the Pixel Watch 4 and Pixel Buds 2a are also part of the new lineup [1][4]. - The standard Pixel 10 features a new long-focus lens for 5x optical zoom and an improved OLED screen with a brightness of 3000 nits. The Pro models have enhanced RAM and camera capabilities [7]. AI Integration - All Pixel 10 models are equipped with the Tensor G5 processor and integrate the Gemini AI assistant, featuring new functionalities like Magic Cue and Camera Coach, which enhance user experience through contextual suggestions and photography advice [2][6]. Competitive Landscape - The launch occurs amid intensified competition with Apple in the AI space, with Google promoting its AI capabilities while highlighting the delays in Apple's Siri upgrades. However, Google faces challenges in increasing its smartphone market share, lagging behind brands like Samsung and Motorola [5]. Hardware Enhancements - The Tensor G5 chip, manufactured by TSMC, offers a 34% performance improvement and a 60% enhancement in AI capabilities compared to previous models. The introduction of Qi2 wireless charging technology across all models is also a significant upgrade [11]. - The Pixel 10 Pro Fold features improved durability and a unique split-screen function, allowing users to run different applications simultaneously [9]. Wearable Devices - The Pixel Watch 4 introduces a new charging method that enhances convenience and speed, with a peak brightness of 3000 nits and a battery life of up to 40 hours for the 45mm version [13]. - The Pixel Buds 2a now include active noise cancellation and are priced at approximately $130, reflecting an increase from the previous generation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, particularly technology stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, with the Nasdaq index dropping below 21,000 points for the first time since August 7, marking a decline of nearly 2% [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the evening of August 20, the Nasdaq index fell by 1.86%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.02%, and the Dow Jones decreased by 0.29% [4]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 2.7%, with major chip stocks like Intel and Micron falling over 7% and 6% respectively [4][5]. - Other large tech stocks also saw declines, with Tesla down over 3%, Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Apple and Google down over 1% [5]. Group 2: Reasons for the Sell-off - A significant factor for the sell-off was the anticipation of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, leading investors to sell off shares due to concerns over its high valuation [2][9]. - Analysts noted that the sell-off was exacerbated by fears of an overhyped AI market, with warnings about inflated valuations causing increased caution among investors [9][11]. - The market's decline was also attributed to profit-taking behavior following a strong rally in tech stocks since April [10]. Group 3: Earnings Reports and Market Sentiment - The earnings season revealed disappointing results from major companies, such as Target, which reported a drop in net profit from $1.19 billion to $935 million year-over-year, and a decline in comparable sales by 1.9% [6]. - Estee Lauder's revenue fell by 12% year-over-year, leading to a downward revision of its earnings forecast for the upcoming fiscal year [6][7]. - Alcon also lowered its sales outlook for 2025, citing ongoing impacts from U.S. tariffs, which contributed to its stock's decline of over 9% [7]. Group 4: Broader Market Concerns - Concerns about a potential bubble in U.S. risk assets were raised, with predictions of further declines in the stock market following the Jackson Hole central bank meeting [10]. - A report from MIT highlighted a significant gap in the commercial viability of generative AI, indicating that 95% of companies have not yet seen returns on their investments in this area, which may have fueled skepticism in the market [11].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：FOF老码头） 今天的文章开始前，还是来聊聊这幅图，灰色柱子是全球主要权益市场今年以来的涨幅，而红色柱子是 4.7关税政策实施以来的涨幅。平均来看，下图中的指数在4.7之后实现了平均24%的上涨，而年内实现 了14%的涨幅，换句话全球主要的权益市场可能已经抹平了关税带来的波动，突破向上。 您不禁会问，这么多的涨幅，岂不是迎来了一场全球股票市场牛市？那回顾历史，牛市因何而起，历次 牛市又是因何而止的呢？今天我就来盘一盘历史上的几轮全球牛市，看看各国股票市场的共振行情背后 都有哪些因素。 一、1991-2000年："新经济"驱动的互联网牛市 1991年初至2000年3月，全球主要股市持续上涨：其中美股纳斯达克指数涨幅超500%，欧洲、日本股市 也同步回升，新兴市场（如亚洲四小龙）表现活跃。 信息技术革命与"新经济"崛起，带动了微软、英特尔、思科等科技企业快速成长：1995-2000年标普500 成分股净利润年均增长达到15%，叠加财政发力（1997年美国减税法案），进一步支撑股价。美联储在 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.18 数据来源：Wind，数据区 ...