6月11日，银行间主要利率债收益率全线下行。截至发稿，30年期国债活跃券的收益率下行1.5个基点，报1.8540%；10年期国债活跃券的收益率下行1.2个 基点，报1.6455%；5年期国债活跃券、2年期国债活跃券的收益率也有所下降。 对于近期债市再次走强，市场分析人士指出，6月以来银行体系资金面持续宽松，资金利率走低。市场资金宽松预期下，进一步带动了债券市场回暖。 6月5日，央行官网公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年6月6日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1万亿元买断式 逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。 央行开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作后，近期债券市场再次呈现出震荡攀升的走势。 6月11日，30年期国债期货收涨0.23%，自6月6日以来已累计上涨近1%。10年期国债期货、5年期国债期货等近期也有所走高。 市场分析人士指出，近期行情多变且发展迅速，中美关税进展决定利率中枢，资金松紧与市场情绪雕刻利率曲线日度变化。 债券市场再次震荡走强 近期债券市场再次震荡走强，30年期国债期货涨幅明显，2年期国债期货整体仍处于震荡走势。 截至6月11日收盘，30年期国债期货的价格报12 ...

花旗：企业正面临对不确定性的"焦虑"，导致资本市场在四月份陷入停滞。投资银行业务偏好明确的环 境，缺乏清晰度时将暂停操作。债券市场的活跃程度将取决于并购交易。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is expected to be in a period of both offense and defense in the second half of 2025, with the valuation having a bottom and upward flexibility, and the upward space will increasingly depend on the performance of the equity market. If the equity market breaks through, the convertible bond valuation will resonate accordingly [3][73]. - With the accelerated conversion of bank convertible bonds, the allocation of underlying convertible bond varieties is limited. It is necessary to seek better solutions from the strategic and industry levels [3][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上半年转债走势及估值分析 - **Market performance**: As of June 5, the year - to - date returns of the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index were 4.55% and 6.62% respectively, slightly higher than the median return of convertible bond funds (4.53%). The equity and convertible bond markets had a significant pullback in April due to Trump's tariff disturbances but then recovered to the highest point since the beginning of the year [12]. - **Market structure**: In the first half of the year, small - cap and low - rated convertible bonds outperformed, but they had a large pullback in April due to tariff policies and then quickly recovered their losses. The theme style switched from technology to financial real estate. From January to February, AI + robotics were dominant, and from March to May, the financial real estate style was stronger [13][18]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks continued to rise. In 2025, the trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks reached a new high. The "April decision" was completed instantaneously under the tariff disturbance and then quickly recovered [23]. - **Price**: Since May 2025, the median convertible bond price has remained above 120 yuan, approaching the stage high in March 2025. After the tariff shock and the ebb of the technology main line, the differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds was not obvious [26]. - **Valuation**: The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation has been fluctuating around 30%. Structurally, the bottom - support value of high - priced bonds was strong in the first half of the year, and the valuation tended to compress; the bottom - support value of medium - priced bonds increased slightly, and the valuation increased; the pure bond value and valuation of low - priced bonds both increased, mainly benefiting from the increase in conversion value [27][34]. 3.2下半年转债攻守兼备，估值下有底上有弹性 - **Supporting factors for valuation**: The equity market is not expected to have a deep correction, and the low - interest - rate environment will remain unchanged; the trend of supply contraction and undiminished demand remains unchanged; although institutional behaviors such as funds reflect a cautious attitude, the attention is still high; the concern about the downgrade of convertible bond ratings may be better than expected [3][73]. - **Potential suppressing factors for valuation**: The credit rating of existing convertible bonds is declining, and the scale of high - quality assets is decreasing, which restricts the institutional allocation space; the number of near - maturity convertible bonds is increasing, and the impact of time - value attenuation cannot be ignored [3][73]. - **Incremental funds**: The marginal incremental funds mainly come from securities firms and private funds [68][72]. 3.3银行转债加速退出下的底仓配置品种探索 - **Status of bank convertible bonds**: Since 2023, the balance and proportion of bank convertible bonds have been declining. As of June 2025, the proportion of bank convertible bond balances has fallen back to around 20%. The issuance rhythm has slowed down, and there have been no new issuances since 2023 [77][78]. - **Strategic level**: The valuations of convertible bonds with ratings of AA + and above are high, and the space for additional allocation is limited. It is necessary to appropriately relax the rating and market - value restrictions. In both the medium - low and high - parity ranges, the low - valuation style has long - term advantages. The valuation difference between new and old bonds is expected to further polarize [3][84][106]. - **Industry level**: The industries that can replace bank convertible bonds are mainly banking, power equipment (mainly from photovoltaics), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (mainly from pork). The available bank convertible bonds with prices below 120 yuan are Xingye, Ziyin, and Qingnong convertible bonds, and their valuations are already high. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have long maturities and elasticity. Agricultural and animal husbandry convertible bonds are relatively stable, and their elasticity comes from the improvement of the underlying stock's fundamentals [3][111][122].

Core Viewpoint - China Foreign Trade Trust has achieved significant recognition in the bond market by being listed among the "Top 100 Bond Market Traders" and "Top 10 Trust Companies in Bond Market Trading" for three consecutive years, reflecting its strong performance and commitment to serving the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Company Achievements - In 2024, China Foreign Trade Trust achieved a bond trading volume of nearly 820 billion yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company held approximately 640 billion yuan in bonds issued on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, ranking among the top in trading and new bond subscription volumes among trust companies [3]. - The company has been recognized for its comprehensive service system that includes trust, fundraising, valuation, trading, risk control, and settlement, which has garnered widespread market acclaim [3]. Group 2: Future Plans - China Foreign Trade Trust aims to deepen its participation in the bond market by enhancing both the breadth and depth of its services, focusing on stable trading and responsible financial practices [4]. - The company plans to contribute to the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality economic development while creating long-term value for investors [4]. - The commitment to financial innovation and service to national strategies will be central to the company's future endeavors in the capital market [4].

美联储理事库格勒：债券市场活动保持有序。 ...

美国众议院议长约翰逊：密切关注债券市场。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **bond market** outlook for June 2025, with insights into **monetary policy**, **credit bonds**, and specific sectors such as **real estate** and **coal** industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Outlook for June 2025**: The bond market is expected to continue the volatile trend observed since May, primarily due to uncertainties in tariff negotiations and variable fundamental data. The trading range for the 10-year government bond is anticipated to be between **1.6% and 1.7%** [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from preventing capital turnover to stabilizing growth, creating a relatively friendly monetary environment. The dual interest rate cuts in May were in line with expectations, but the positive effects were quickly absorbed by the market [3][8]. 3. **Seasonal Factors**: Historical data from 2019 to 2024 indicates that the 10-year government bond typically experiences limited volatility in June, with fluctuations generally within **10 basis points**. Seasonal factors and government bond issuance are expected to influence liquidity significantly [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity Concerns**: The liquidity situation in June is complicated by a **1.5 trillion yuan** net financing issuance and **4 trillion yuan** in maturing certificates of deposit, raising concerns about short-term volatility despite an overall favorable trend [7][8]. 5. **Credit Bonds**: The short-end credit spread has limited compression potential, while three-year varieties still have room for compression. Attention is drawn to **2A-rated** credit bonds for investment opportunities [6][12]. 6. **Real Estate Sector**: The real estate industry is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the impact of policy relaxations in core first-tier cities. Recommendations include investing in safe-zone state-owned enterprise real estate bonds and high-cost performance **2A/2A+** rated bonds [16][17]. 7. **Coal Industry**: The coal sector has seen a decline in demand since 2024, leading to price fluctuations. The overall profitability has decreased, and cash flow from operating activities has contracted [19][21]. 8. **Steel Industry**: The steel sector faces severe oversupply issues, with a slight recovery in demand due to export boosts. However, domestic demand remains weak, leading to continued pressure on prices and profitability [20][21]. Additional Important Content 1. **Investment Strategies**: The second half of 2025 may present a significant investment window, with potential new monetary policies expected to be announced in July. Investors are advised to prepare for this period despite a lackluster June [5][11]. 2. **Credit Strategy**: The credit market shows varying performance across different maturities and ratings, with a focus on optimizing investment portfolios based on these dynamics [12][14]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond market has experienced a V-shaped recovery, indicating strong buying power despite the unclear upward trend in the equity market [22][24]. 4. **Risk Assessment**: The overall risk in the equity market is considered manageable, with liquidity remaining ample and policy expectations high, which supports the convertible bond market [23][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the bond market and related sectors.

韩国股市大涨。 6月4日，韩国股市大涨，截至发稿，韩国综合指数涨近2%，韩国KOSDAQ指数涨超1%。 | < W | | | 韩国综合指数(KS11) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 06-04 09:39:00 延时行情 | | | | 2751.0500 | | 昨收 | 2698.9700 | 成交额 | 0 | | 52.0800 | 1.93% | 今开 | 2737.9200 | 成交量 | 1.6亿 | | 上 涨 | 632 | 파 물 | 64 | 下 跌 | 144 | | 最高价 | 2751.0500 | 市盈率 | 0.0 | 近20日 | 7.47% | | 最低价 | 2734.0200 | 市净率 | 0.00 | 今年来 | 14.65% | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月Ｋ | 申务 ( | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 2751,0500 | | | | | 1.93% | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 2646.8899 | | | 当前为延时行情 获取实时行 ...

美联储理事库克：在压力下，四月债券市场表现出韧性。 ...

厄瓜多尔财长：厄瓜多尔计划在2026年重返债券市场。 ...