证券研究报告|策略专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 站上十年新起点，A 股步入"慢牛"新周期 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 一、过去 A 股长期横向震荡的原因。1）2010 年起，A 股 ROE 持续下行。中国在经济产业结构转型过程中，传统投资 出口拉动增长的模式边际效应递减；2）2024 年以前，A 股 募资规模（IPO、增发）持续高于分红金额，并且市场上行 阶段往往伴随重要股东净减持规模增加，在增量资金入市不 足阶段持续消耗流动性。 分析师：张海燕 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521040002 相关研究 [Table_Report] 二、A 股新一轮牛市已然启动。1）全球贸易不确定性增强， 但中国经济的强大韧性正在得到越来越广泛的国际认可； 2）居民部门积累大量超额储蓄，资产荒权益市场吸引力提 升。截至 2025 年上半年，住户存款向上偏离 2011-2019 年 间的趋势线约 50 万亿元以上，意味着股市潜在增量资金庞 大。当前居民存款搬家仍处于早期 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - In July, the total import and export volume reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [5] - The first seven months of 2023 saw a total import and export volume of 256,969 billion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.3% [5] Group 2: Financial Data and Trends - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with government bond financing being the main contributor [3] - The M2 growth rate reached 8.8% in July, while M1 rebounded to 5.6%, indicating a shift in residents' risk preferences [4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents is emerging, with non-wage income supporting consumption in the third and fourth quarters [2][6] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in July totaled 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%, marking a decline in growth rate for two consecutive months [6] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year for the first seven months, with a notable decline in July [7] - Real estate investment continued to decline, down 12% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing adjustments in supply and demand [7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The central government emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [8] - The People's Bank of China aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on effective support for the real economy [9] - Structural monetary policy tools are highlighted as essential for targeted support in key sectors, with a focus on re-lending and re-discounting [9]

8月20日，大盘早盘延续震荡，午后突发强劲反弹，沪指反包收涨1%续创十年新高，盘中最高触及 3767.43点。两市成交额连续第6日突破2万亿。 券商板块早盘低开，上午两度翻红未果，午后单边向上，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内价格最高涨 逾1%，收涨0.97%；午盘一度跌近1.5%，全天振幅达2.59%，成交额14.72亿元，延续高人气。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 600864 | 哈投股份 | Status of Children | 8.24 c | 0.75 | 10.01% | | 2 | 600369 | 西南证券 | | 5.05 c | 0.28 | 5.87% | | 3 | 002736 | 国信证券 | manaly | 14.66 c | 0.65 | 4.64% | | 4 | 600109 | 国会证券 | | 10.30 c | 0.34 | 3.41% | | 5 | 600061 | 国投资本 | 11 11 11 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing unexpected upward movement despite various negative factors, indicating potential bullish sentiment among investors [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw significant gains today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.04%, Shenzhen Component by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.23% [10]. - The total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 24,484 billion, a decrease of 1,923 billion from the previous day [10]. - Over 3,600 stocks in the market experienced price increases, with 104 stocks hitting the daily limit up [10]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Redemption Pressure - Tianfeng Securities reported that the redemption pressure from funds is not significant, estimating a potential "redemption" selling pressure of around 30 billion for the quarter, which is manageable given the average daily trading volume [4]. - Historical data suggests that redemption does not necessarily mean investors are exiting the market; they may reinvest in new funds or ETFs [4]. Group 3: Household Savings Migration - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the total amount of household deposits maturing in 25 years is approximately 71.5 trillion, accounting for 36.9% of all deposits [5]. - The migration of household savings is beginning to take shape, driven by the declining returns in real estate and the search for safer, slightly higher-yielding assets [5][9]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market is estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion, which could exceed previous market cycles [9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The consumer sector and semiconductor industry showed strong performance today, with significant gains in stocks related to these sectors [10]. - The beverage sector, particularly liquor stocks, saw notable increases, with companies like Guizhou Moutai stabilizing prices and showing improved performance expectations [10]. - The semiconductor industry experienced a rebound, with stocks like Chipone Technology and Cambrian rising significantly amid news of potential collaborations in AI chip design [10].

8月20日，大盘早盘延续震荡，午后突发强劲反弹，沪指反包收涨1%续创十年新高，盘中最高触及3767.43点。两市成交额连续第6日突破2万亿。 券商板块早盘低开，上午两度翻红未果，午后单边向上，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内价格最高涨逾1%，收涨0.97%；午盘一度跌近1.5%，全天振幅达 2.59%，成交额14.72亿元，延续高人气。 | 图片来源：Wind | | --- | 板块个股多数收涨，哈投股份尾盘封板，西南证券涨近6%，国信证券涨超4%，国金证券涨超3%，国投资本、山西证券涨超2%，华泰证券、国泰海通等23 股涨逾1%。东方财富跟涨0.67%，单日成交额178.18亿元，继续稳居A股成交榜首。 | 区号 | 代码 | 名称 | 内日各 | 现价 | 淵鉄 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 600864 | 哈投股份 | | 8.24 c | 0.75 | | | 2 | 600369 | 西南让夺 | | 5.05 c | 0.28 | 5.87% | | 3 | 002736 | 国信证券 | | 14.66 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed higher, reaching a new high, while the Shenzhen Component and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also hit annual highs [1] - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 2.41 trillion yuan, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days [1] AI and Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry chain saw significant gains, with Cambrian Technology rising over 8% and stabilizing above the 1,000 yuan mark [1] - The Sci-Tech AI ETF (588730) surged by 4.29%, while the AI ETF (159819) increased by 2.66% [1] Fund Inflows and Leverage - The AI-themed ETFs are attracting substantial capital, with the AI ETF (159819) attracting 280 million yuan in a single day and a total net inflow of 4.959 billion yuan year-to-date, making it the largest in its category at 17.338 billion yuan [3] - The total margin financing balance increased by 395 million yuan on August 18, marking the largest single-day increase since October 8, 2024, and surpassed 2.1 trillion yuan for the first time in 10 years [3][4] Stock Performance and Leverage Buying - The top net purchases of leveraged funds in the second half of the year included New Yisheng with over 5 billion yuan and a 102% increase in stock price, and Northern Rare Earth with over 3.6 billion yuan and a 78% increase [4][6] - Other companies with significant net purchases exceeding 2 billion yuan included WuXi AppTec, Shenghong Technology, and Dongfeng Motor [4][6] Insurance and Foreign Investment - Insurance funds have been actively buying H-shares, with Ping An Life investing approximately 465 million HKD in Agricultural Bank of China and China Life [11] - As of the end of Q2, the balance of insurance funds was 36.23 trillion yuan, with stock investments increasing by 8.9% from the previous quarter [12] Foreign Capital Inflows - In July, the Chinese stock market saw a net inflow of over 6 billion USD, with hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks since the end of June [14][15] - Goldman Sachs noted that the buying was primarily driven by long positions, with China being the market with the highest net purchases in August [16]

Core Viewpoint - The current probability of a "deposit migration" from savings to the stock market is high, driven by factors such as declining deposit rates, liquidity expansion, initial asset appreciation effects, and policy catalysts [1][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Deposit Migration - Historically, there have been seven rounds of deposit migration, with indicators such as annual changes in household savings rates, the growth rate of household deposits compared to M2, and monthly deposit growth rates [2][13]. - The first round of deposit migration occurred from 1998 to 2000, primarily driven by market reforms that increased consumption rather than stock market investments [19][28]. - The second round from 2009 to 2012 saw deposits initially flow into the stock market, followed by a shift to wealth management and trust products [31][33]. Group 2: Triggers for Deposit Migration - Key triggers for deposit migration include the decline of risk-free interest rates and deposit rates, which widen the yield gap between deposits and alternative investment products [3][14]. - Liquidity and credit expansion have historically prompted asset reallocation, as seen during the 2008 "four trillion stimulus plan" and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [3][14]. - The emergence of asset appreciation effects, such as significant stock market gains, has also been a consistent factor in driving deposit migration [3][14]. Group 3: Channels for Deposit Migration - Deposits typically migrate to the stock market, especially during periods of notable stock market gains, as seen in 2009 and 2014-2015 [4][15]. - Other channels include increased consumption due to market reforms, diversified investment channels, and real estate investments [4][15]. - Low-risk products such as bank wealth management and money market funds also attract migrating deposits [4][15]. Group 4: Characteristics of Deposit Migration to the Stock Market - Historical analysis shows that deposit migration to the stock market is often accompanied by significant appreciation in stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 103.4% in 2009 and 159.5% in 2014-2015 [5][16]. - The migration typically occurs after a delay following stock market uptrends, indicating that it is a reaction to market performance rather than a precursor [5][16]. - Increased household deposits entering the stock market can amplify the market's upward momentum, as evidenced by the subsequent rises in stock indices following deposit migrations [5][16]. Group 5: Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current environment suggests a high likelihood of a new round of deposit migration, driven by lower deposit rates, liquidity expansion, and initial stock market gains of 25% since the 2024 policy changes [6][17]. - Initially, deposits are expected to flow into stable assets like bank wealth management products and money market funds, with a gradual shift towards equity assets anticipated in the latter half of 2024 [6][17].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report initiates coverage on Mai Fushi (2556.HK) with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 18.65 billion RMB, indicating a 50% upside potential from current levels [2] - Mai Fushi's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.31 billion, 2.97 billion, and 3.82 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 29%, and 29% respectively [13] - The company has a strong execution capability, with an average revenue per employee of 997,000 RMB in 2024, indicating effective operational management [13] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report discusses the ongoing trend of "residential deposit migration," which is expected to accelerate as the equity market's fundamentals improve, with A-shares currently positioned favorably [12] - The report highlights that the equity market is likely to become the next destination for residential asset allocation, as the previous "stock-property seesaw" effect is no longer a constraint [15] - The report notes that by Q4 2025, the real risk-free interest rate for residents is expected to decline significantly, which will further drive the migration of deposits into the equity market [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for Mai Fushi is characterized by a focus on mid-to-large enterprises, which enhances customer retention and bargaining power [13] - The report emphasizes the differentiation of Mai Fushi's products compared to competitors like Weimeng and Youzan, particularly in terms of comprehensive service offerings and a full-link marketing approach [13] - The report indicates that the AI commercialization acceleration is a key catalyst for growth, with a notable increase in KA customer numbers and order sizes [13] Group 4: Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.46% over the past month [1] - The report identifies sectors such as black home appliances and animal health as having strong recent performance, with respective increases of 12.36% and 47.87% over the past month [4] - Conversely, sectors like medical services and aviation equipment have underperformed, with declines of 10.77% and 21.91% over the same period [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the Chinese banking sector, particularly focusing on the shift of funds from fixed deposits to demand deposits and investments in the stock market. Core Insights and Arguments - **M1 Growth and Economic Indicators**: M1 growth has risen to 5.6% in July, indicating improved monetary liquidity and suggesting a potential bottoming out of economic demand and inflation, typically leading by about six months [2] - **Deposit Migration Drivers**: The migration of deposits is driven by several factors including a recovery in the stock market, changes in long-term economic expectations, and a resurgence in the financial assets of high-net-worth individuals [10] - **Excess Savings**: Approximately 5 trillion yuan of excess savings accumulated between 2022 and 2024 is a significant source for potential market entry, supported by a liquidity-rich environment and government leverage [5][20] - **Stock Market Activity**: Since August, A-share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity, although the number of new accounts opened is still below last year's peak [6] - **Shift in Loan Composition**: The proportion of loans for mechanical manufacturing and green finance has increased from 40% to 70%, while real estate loans have dropped to 0%, reflecting a shift in financial resource allocation [3][7] Additional Important Content - **Impact of Fixed Deposits**: A significant amount of fixed deposits, particularly those maturing in 2025, is expected to be reallocated, with about 70 trillion yuan in total fixed deposits maturing, including 7 trillion yuan in three-year fixed deposits [14][13] - **Financial Disintermediation**: The phenomenon of financial disintermediation has led to a significant outflow of deposits towards non-bank financial products, with an estimated drag on physical deposits of about 12 trillion yuan, which has since reduced to 8 trillion yuan [8] - **Contribution to Deposit Creation**: The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation has increased from 25% in 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit has decreased from 73% to 41% [9] - **Potential Market Entry Funds**: The potential funds available for market entry are estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external environments [11][21] - **Liquidity and Investment Trends**: The trend of residents and enterprises activating their deposits is expected to enhance market liquidity and stimulate investment activities, with a projected increase in M1 growth to around 10% [17][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of deposit migration, market conditions, and potential investment opportunities within the Chinese financial landscape.

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3700 points, leading to increased trading activity and a renewed competition among brokerages for clients [1] - Brokerages are promoting services such as "24/7 online processing" and "3-minute account opening," with commission rates for new personal investors generally around 0.15% to 0.1% [1][2] - Some brokerages offer even lower commission rates, down to 0.0854% and 0.0841%, depending on the size of the investment [1][2] Group 2 - The current trend in the securities industry is a response to "anti-involution," with firms moving away from aggressive price competition [3][6] - The margin trading balance has reached 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in investor participation [3][4] - New margin trading account opening enthusiasm is present, with financing rates ranging from 4% to 5.5% [3][5] Group 3 - High net worth investors are entering the market, while retail investors have not significantly increased their participation through direct stock trading or public funds [7] - There is an observed trend of excess savings among residents, estimated at around 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan, which could serve as potential market entry funds [7][8] - Recent data shows an increase in stock market activity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan and a notable rise in brokerage margin account funds [8]