炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近日，摩根资产管理举办新年投资策略会，就2026年全球及中国市场的宏观环境、大类资产配置以及A 股投资机遇展开系统分析。 摩根资产管理中国资深环球市场策略师蒋先威表示，展望2026年，全球经济增速或将放缓，但随着利率 逐步下行，主要成熟市场货币政策收紧节奏有望趋缓，低利率环境仍将对经济形成支撑。对中国而言， 外部不确定性减弱、政策环境保持友好，叠加企业盈利周期触底回升以及"反内卷"政策对无序扩张的约 束，工业企业利润修复进程有望加快。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在资产配置层面，蒋先威指出，企业盈利改善有望支撑全球权益市场表现，但在高估值与地缘政治不确 定性并存的背景下，投资者需合理降低回报预期，并通过多元化配置分散风险。具体来看，美股科技板 块或持续受益于人工智能发展，市场风格有望向周期与价值扩散；欧 ...

◎记者 于祥明 国家发展改革委1月20日在国新办新闻发布会上透露了扩内需、优供给和反内卷等一揽子存量和增量政 策，传递出推动经济增长和物价回升良性互动的重要信号。 同时，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规 划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 王昌林表示，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从卷价格向优价值转变。要完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能 退出等机制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于求的阶段性矛盾。进一步细化地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事 项边界，规范地方经济促进行为。加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，形成优质 优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。大力实施质量品牌战略，引导破解"内卷式"竞争。 国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，只要充分挖掘经济潜能，着力推进改革创新，持续苦练内功，完全 有信心、有能力、有条件、有底气推动"十五五"开好局、起好步。 "市场本身就是稀缺资源，超大规模市场本身就是巨大的潜能和强大的动能。"国家发展改革委国民经济 综合司司长周陈表示，展望2026年，我国经济结构将持续向"优"、发展动能持续向"新"、整体发展态势 持续向" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's economic situation is showing positive changes, with a steady improvement in economic performance and supportive policies being implemented to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [1][2][3] - In December 2025, the value added of the service industry and the service production index both accelerated in year-on-year growth compared to the previous month, indicating a recovery in the service sector [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has maintained a growth rate of over 1% for four consecutive months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing year-on-year decline and a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months [1] Group 2 - Recent policy measures have been focused on promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a series of deployments signaling strong support for stable growth [2][3] - The State Council meeting on January 16 emphasized the need to improve long-term mechanisms for consumption promotion and to accelerate the development of new growth points in service consumption [2] - The collaboration between fiscal and financial policies is crucial for stimulating domestic demand, as it can create a multiplier effect that enhances overall economic performance [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound, rising 0.13% to close at 4107 points, with significant activity in the consumer sector, particularly in tourism and dining [1] - The State Council meeting on January 16 emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, highlighting the potential for growth as China's household consumption accounts for only about 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the average in developed countries [1] - The new round of government subsidies amounting to 62.5 billion yuan for "old-for-new" initiatives is expected to stimulate domestic demand and improve people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - The Tourism ETF (562510.SH) tracks the CSI segmented tourism index, covering leading stocks in sectors such as duty-free, airlines, hotels, and attractions, including China Duty Free Group and China Eastern Airlines [1] - The Food ETF Huaxia (159151.SZ) tracks the CSI All Food Index, which includes leading stocks in seasoning, dairy, meat products, and snacks, and is designed to better reflect daily consumer needs by excluding traditional alcoholic beverages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The series of articles by "Zhong Caiping" published at the beginning of 2026 aims to set the tone for the economic outlook and provide guidance for development during the critical start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing confidence and clarity in policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Direction - The articles highlight the resilience and strength of the Chinese economy, asserting that it can withstand significant challenges, thereby establishing a foundational tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" for the year [3][4]. - The emphasis on "pragmatism" and "tailored approaches" in economic work reflects a commitment to learning from past experiences and providing precise guidance for local governance [4][6]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Economic Growth - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving livelihoods is identified as a priority, with strategies including enhancing consumer income and optimizing investment in infrastructure and public services [6][9]. - The articles advocate for a dual approach of boosting both consumption and investment, with specific measures to increase residents' income and support new consumption trends [6][7]. Group 3: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The commitment to high-level openness is reiterated, with an emphasis on quality over quantity in international trade and investment, aiming to create a mutually beneficial environment for both domestic and foreign enterprises [7][9]. - The articles outline four key areas for enhancing openness: expanding the domestic market, deepening supply chain cooperation, optimizing the investment environment, and promoting the Belt and Road Initiative [7][9]. Group 4: Guidance for Stakeholders - The articles serve as a practical guide for individuals, businesses, and local governments, emphasizing the importance of stable expectations, accurate direction, and a realistic mindset in pursuing long-term development [9]. - Stakeholders are encouraged to focus on domestic demand and cooperative opportunities, aligning with government support for new consumption and innovative production sectors [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the logistics and transportation sector, including SF Holding and Jitu Express [6]. Core Insights - The strategic alliance between Jitu Express and SF Holding aims to enhance cross-border logistics and network expansion, leveraging each company's strengths for better collaboration and market reach [1][3]. - The oil shipping market is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and optimistic sentiment among shipowners, with a focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][12]. - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 8% increase in business volume in 2026, driven by overseas e-commerce growth and the strategic partnership between Jitu and SF [3][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.94% in the week of January 12-16, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [1][18]. - The top-performing segments included shipping, public transport, and express delivery, with respective gains of 1.51%, 1.42%, and 0.93% [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [11][26]. Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates have significantly increased due to concentrated shipments from the Middle East and West Africa, with rates reaching $99,627 per day [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is facing a decline in rates, particularly for Cape-sized vessels, due to slow recovery in demand [13][14]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is highlighted with two main investment themes: international expansion through the Jitu and SF partnership and the internal competition dynamics among leading express companies [3][17]. - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by approximately 8% in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rates due to market saturation and price increases [17].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has introduced a monetary policy package aimed at supporting the real economy, particularly in key areas and weak links, to ensure a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The policy includes a reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, with the one-year re-lending rate decreased from 1.5% to 1.25%, which is expected to lower financing costs and stimulate credit growth in priority sectors [1] - The new measures will increase the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation to 1.2 trillion yuan, and an additional 500 billion yuan will be allocated for supporting agriculture and small enterprises, addressing funding gaps in these critical areas [1] Group 2 - The policy also expands the scope of structural tools to include dedicated re-lending for private enterprises and high R&D investment private SMEs, enhancing financial support for these sectors and fostering a more vibrant market for economic transformation [2] - New support areas include carbon reduction financing tools and re-lending for consumer services and elderly care, aligning with China's goals for green transformation and boosting domestic demand [2] - The targeted approach of the policy aims to lower financing costs while directing financial resources towards high-quality development, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of financial services for the real economy [2]

Group 1 - In 2026, profitability is expected to become the key focus of the market, driven by the continued improvement of listed companies' fundamentals and the deepening of China's economic transformation along with the sustained development of emerging industries [1] - The narrowing decline in PPI is anticipated to further boost corporate profit margins, contributing to an upward momentum in the A-share market [1] - The top five sectors with net inflows include semiconductors, automotive parts, new energy vehicle components, home appliances, and white goods [1] Group 2 - Since 2020, global rocket launches have reached record highs for three consecutive years, indicating a significant increase in space activities [3] - China is expected to officially enter the high-frequency satellite internet networking phase starting in 2026, with rapid growth anticipated in the industry as domestic satellite internet construction progresses [3] - Focus should be on the upstream satellite manufacturing and rocket launch sectors, particularly the formal construction and batch networking of domestic low-orbit satellite constellations [3] Group 3 - The year 2025 is projected to be the "explosion year" for server liquid cooling, with significant shipments expected for the GB300 cabinets in the fourth quarter [5] - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly participating in the liquid cooling component supply chain, which is beneficial for the domestic liquid cooling industry [5] - The white wine industry is expected to see improved financial reports in 2026, with demand policies gradually weakening and consumption scenarios stabilizing [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend is strong, with noticeable inflows of incremental capital, although the market's profitability effect remains weak [7] - The A-share market is characterized by a tendency for declines to occur more easily than increases, reflecting investor behavior that is difficult to change [11] - The focus on strengthening domestic demand is crucial for China's modernization strategy, with sectors such as food and beverage, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals expected to benefit [11]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth Signals - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have released four key policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets for 2026 [1] - The focus for 2026 includes enhancing industrial technological innovation capabilities, developing core technologies, and fostering high-level manufacturing platforms, with an emphasis on emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new materials, and biomedicine [1][2] Group 2: Investment and Funding Initiatives - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched with an investment of 100 billion yuan, aiming to attract local and social capital to create an investment scale exceeding one trillion yuan, particularly in hard technology sectors [2] - The Guangdong province has introduced policies to promote the "use first, pay later" model for technology transfer, providing flexible cooperation paths for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 3: Low-altitude Economy Development - The low-altitude economy has been included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new opportunities for the development of three-dimensional low-altitude travel [4] - The first Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Low-altitude Economy High-quality Development Conference has been held, announcing policies for infrastructure, technological innovation, and financial support for the low-altitude economy [5] Group 4: Digital Economy Collaboration - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is enhancing digital economy cooperation, establishing a development pattern driven by the dual cores of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with unique contributions from Hong Kong and Macau [7] - The policies released by six ministries focusing on supporting technological innovation provide strong guidance for the high-quality development of the digital economy in the Greater Bay Area [7]