5月的最后一个交易日，美元走势还是偏弱。今天过后，美元指数5月份预计下跌0.4%，为连续第五个月收跌。 市场分析指出，美元这一罕见走势背后，是特朗普反复无常的贸易政策与日益恶化的财政状况所引发的市场信心危机。同时，投资者对美国经济前景的担忧日 益加剧。 经济数据难以缓解衰退担忧 美国劳工部周四发布的最新数据显示，截至5月24日当周，首次申请失业救济人数激增1.4万人至24万人，远超分析师预期的22.6万人。此外，受消费支出和进 口拖累，美国一季度经济按年率计算萎缩0.2%不及预期。 关税政策混乱，美国资产光环褪色 本周，美元因贸易政策反复而波动不断。 据新华社29日报道， 美国上诉法院恢复实施关税政策，给特朗普政府带来喘息空间。 而就在一天前， 美国一家贸易法院刚刚下令立即阻止这些关税 。 这种朝令夕改的政策环境让投资者无所适从。 当前，法律程序的不确定性已经对市场产生了实质冲击。 关税政策反复就宛如一颗"定时炸弹"，让市场充满谨慎情绪，投资者纷纷撤离美国资产寻求替代选 择，担心特朗普变幻莫测的政策可能挑战美国资产市场的强势地位。 Capital.com高级金融市场分析师Kyle Rodda指出： （法院）这 ...

Core Insights - The global economy in 2025 faces multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and supply chain fluctuations, yet the Chinese motorcycle industry has shown remarkable export growth due to its flexible supply chain and deep market penetration in emerging markets [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In Q1 2025, China's motorcycle export value experienced double-digit growth, with 31% of companies reporting export increases exceeding 30% [2] - South America (77%) and Africa (69%) emerged as the primary export destinations, with a significant number of companies reporting growth in these regions [2] - In contrast, the U.S. market remains sluggish, with 46% of companies experiencing a decline or stagnation in exports, and over half expecting further contraction in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Challenges and Pressures - Despite strong export performance, the industry faces challenges, with 62% of companies reporting critical component shortages and high international logistics costs [3] - 38% of companies are hindered by international trade barriers and chaotic industry competition, with 54% indicating they may abandon the U.S. market due to tariff costs [3] - The trend towards focusing on alternative markets like the EU and Latin America is evident, with 62% of clients at trade fairs coming from these regions [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - To address challenges, companies are enhancing supply chain resilience and exploring local alternatives for components [3] - There is a push for government support, with 62% of companies seeking export credit insurance and 54% desiring tax reductions [3] - Companies are increasingly participating in emerging market trade fairs, with 38% focusing on Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite conservative expectations for the U.S. and EU markets, 62% of companies anticipate growth in Africa and South America [4] - Most companies expect continued export growth in the second half of the year, although the rate of increase may slow [4] - The Chinese motorcycle industry is poised to navigate the complexities of the international environment by deepening its focus on emerging markets and enhancing technological innovation and brand development [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that exchange rates are a significant factor affecting inflation and demand in emerging market economies [1]

大型科技股普涨， 特斯拉股价大涨近7%，市值一夜增加759亿美元（约合人民币5461亿 元）。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月24日，马斯克在社交媒体X平台发文称，他目前已回归 全天候工作状态。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅一 | | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 362.890 | 6.94% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 135.500 | 3.21% | | NVDA.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 173.980 | 2.59% | | GOOG.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 200.210 | 2.53% | | AAPL.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 206.020 | 2.50% | | AMZN.O | | | | 脸书(META PLA... | 642.320 | 2.43% | | META.O | | | | 微软(MICROSO ... | 460.690 | 2.33% | | MSFT.O | | | 美股压力难消 美国经济已经在高利率、高增长、通胀中枢抬 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国机电商会低压电器分会发文称，从月度趋势看，2025年1月份，受春节前集中 交货影响，我低压电器单月出口额创下22.1亿美元的历史新高，同比增幅达11.3%；2月份因节后复工延 迟，出口额回落至13.2亿美元，但仍高于近三年同期均值;3月出口量快速回升至20.8亿美元，环比增长 57.6%，形成明显的季度"V型"反弹态势，2025年第一季度行业出口整体曲线显著高于前三年同期水 平。 据我国海关统计，2025年第一季度中国低压电器行业出口额达56亿美元，同比增长13.6%，延续了2024 年全年223.2亿美元(增速7.2%)的增长势头。 1 行业出口整体增势良好，企业自主品牌意识持续提升 从出口市场看，区域市场分布呈现"新兴市场崛起"与"传统市场分化"的双重特征。第一季度对中国香港 出口8.6亿美元，占比15.4%，同比增长30.8%，中国香港作为重要的贸易中转枢纽，对其增长表明我国 低压电器产品对全球市场的辐射能力持续提升;对美国出口表现暂时稳定，出口额6.2亿美元，占比 11%，同比增长2.6%，美国是我国低压电器出口第二大市场，主要出口产品涵盖插头及插座、开关、接 插件等。受加征关 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market equity funds have outperformed global markets this year, driven by low valuations, years of underweight positioning, and easing economic pressures [1] - Latin America and emerging Europe equity funds have seen a year-to-date increase of 24%, while broad emerging market equity funds rose by 9.3% [1] - Single-country equity funds in Morocco, Colombia, Greece, Brazil, and Portugal have all exceeded 30% returns, contrasting with a mere 0.17% increase in U.S. equity funds and a 6.8% rise in global equity funds [1] Fund Flows and Valuation - In the first five months of this year, emerging market equity funds experienced a net inflow of $10.6 billion, a 43% year-on-year increase [1] - U.S. investors currently allocate only 3%-5% to emerging markets, significantly lower than the MSCI global index weight of 10.5% and the actual global market capitalization of approximately 25% for emerging markets [1] Fundamental Improvements - Analysts highlight improvements in fundamentals, with Latin American countries less affected by U.S. trade deficits due to tariffs, and Asian economies shifting towards domestic demand [2] - JPMorgan upgraded its rating on emerging market equities from "neutral" to "overweight," anticipating that all developing economy central banks, except Brazil, will enter a monetary easing cycle, boosting economic vitality and market attractiveness [2] Sector-Specific Insights - The rebound in tech stocks has revitalized the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets, with foreign investors returning to favor AI and low-cost tech companies [2] - The consumer theme in China is currently seen as highly attractive, with good prospects, while Indian markets may be overbought, though opportunities remain in power companies and non-bank financial institutions [2] Valuation Comparisons - As of the end of last month, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was 11.96, slightly below the ten-year average of 12.1; in contrast, the MSCI U.S. and global indices stood at 20.5 and 18.1, respectively, significantly above their historical averages [2]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real opened down 0.5%, leading declines among emerging market currencies [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian real's decline indicates a potential weakness in the currency market, particularly affecting investor sentiment towards Brazil [1]

投资策略指南：从杠杆工具到组合配置 黄金投资的复杂性在于其多重属性：商品、货币、避险资产。对于普通投资者而言，上海黄金期货市场采用的保证金交易制度（杠杆率通常为10%-15%）是 一把"双刃剑"。例如，若以685元/克的价格买入1手（1000克）黄金期货，仅需约6.85万元保证金即可撬动68.5万元的名义合约价值。这种"以小博大"的机 制，在市场波动率攀升时可能放大收益，但也可能因价格短期回调导致强制平仓。 专业投资者则更注重跨市场套利策略。以2025年5月23日数据为例，伦敦金现货价格折算人民币约为773.62元/克（汇率7.1903），而上海现货金价为684.6元/ 克，两地价差达12.9%。这种结构性机会需要实时监控汇率波动和跨境资本流动政策，如同在"潮汐间精准捕鱼"。 市场趋势分析：黄金价格高位震荡的逻辑与驱动因素 以美元计价的黄金与美债收益率历来呈现"跷跷板效应"。近期美国长期赤字问题推高美债收益率，但黄金却逆势走强，反映出市场对美元信用体系的深层焦 虑。这一矛盾现象可类比为"暴雨中的灯塔"——尽管美债收益率上涨可能压制金价，但美元实际购买力的下降（通胀隐忧）和债务违约风险的升温，仍使黄 金成为资金 ...

每季度的13F报告，都是投资者观察顶级资金动向的窗口。一季度，在关税风暴来临前，华尔街 大佬们做了哪些调整？ 从巴菲特"持币不买"的策略，到索罗斯的"抛小盘买大盘"，再到桥水的黄金配置，都显示出顶级 投资者都做了同一个操作——增强组合的防御性，而嗅觉灵敏的Ackman更是赶在关税前清仓了 耐克。 对科技股态度出现分化 ，巴菲特依然坚守苹果，索罗斯加仓英伟达、清仓超微电脑，桥水则减持 了谷歌、英伟达、Meta等。 对于中概股 ，曾豪言"买入一切中国资产"的对冲基金大佬David Tepper谨慎乐观，虽减持阿里， 但仍维持其第一大持仓的地位。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 桥水则果断加码，一季度新进京东持仓，增持阿里巴巴、百度。 巴 菲 特 ： 坚 守 苹 果 ， 清 仓 花 旗 ， 持 币 不 买 "股神"依然保持着他标志性的稳健风格。 本季最大变化是彻底清仓了花旗集团，同时减持了部分金融股，这或许反映了巴菲特对传统金融 业前景的谨慎态度。 据监管文件显示，伯克希尔出售了全部1464万股花旗集团股票，减持了4866万股美国银行股票 （减持比例超过7%），以及减持了30万股第一资本金融公司股票（约4%）。 不过，巴菲特 ...

新加坡瀚亚投资：美国经济不确定性推动资金流向新兴市场 瑞讯银行：美国国债收益率受财政政策与全球资本行为主导 SMBC日兴证券：日本7月参议院选举结果或影响超长债收益率 汉堡商业银行：法国制造业温和回升德国服务业衰退拖累经济 【机构分析】 新加坡瀚亚投资公司称，美国经济不确定性将促使对新兴市场国家进行多元化投资，多元化投资有助于 分散风险并可能提供更丰富的回报。 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞讯银行策略师指出，美国国债收益率的未来走势将主要受美国的财政选择以及全球投资者的行为影 响。地缘政治关系的恶化、对美元兴趣的减少以及对美国国债作为避险资产信心的下降等，这些都可能 削弱市场对美国国债的信心。 市场分析称，如果美国实施一项削弱美元价值的计划，可能会导致违约风险增加；这样的行动可能导致 巨大的市场波动，对全球经济造成冲击。如果美元大幅贬值，其幅度和速度可能超过1985年广场协议后 的贬值情况（当时美元在九个月内贬值了25%，三年内几乎贬值了一半）；当前美国的债务规模远超以 往，政策制定者还在计划进一步增加债务，这使得美元贬值的影响更加复杂。 SMBC日兴证券策略师指出，日本7月即将举行的参议院选举可能是影响超长期限 ...