Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities predicts that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term due to escalating tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - The report anticipates a significant upward movement in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures expected to break through $80 per barrel and further rise [1] - A price range of $70 to $100 per barrel is projected for short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The potential for further escalation of conflicts and the operational conditions of oil infrastructure and ports are key factors to monitor [1] - If demand falls short of expectations and OPEC+ continues to increase production, the price midpoint may gradually decline [1]

当地时间周五（6月20日），投资者密切关注中东局势的最新动态，欧美股市表现分化。 截至收盘，美国三大股指涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数涨0.08%，报42206.82点；标普500指数跌0.22%，报5967.84点；纳斯达克指数跌0.51%，报19447.41点。 本周，道琼斯工业指数涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.15%，纳斯达克指数涨0.21%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42206.82 | 35.16 | 0.08% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19447.41 | -98.86 | -0.51% | | SPX | 标普500 | 5967.84 | -13.03 | -0.22% | 美股大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌跌近4%，脸书跌近2%，亚马逊、英伟达跌逾1%，微软跌0.64%，特斯拉微幅上涨，苹果涨逾2%。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨1.27%，报23350.55点；法国CAC40指数涨0.48%，报7589.66点；英国富时100指数跌0.2 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a sudden drop, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and NYMEX WTI crude dropping over 1% as of June 20 [2] - Concurrently, international gold and silver prices also saw slight declines [2] Group 2 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its eighth day, with the Israeli Defense Forces targeting Iranian military facilities [4] - Iranian President Raisi stated that the only way to end the imposed war is for Israel to "unconditionally stop" its aggression, while Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian emphasized that Iran will not engage in dialogue as long as Israel continues its attacks [4] - Iran's National Security Committee member indicated that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a potential response to ongoing hostilities [4] Group 3 - Citigroup projected that if Iran's oil exports of 1.1 million barrels per day are disrupted, oil prices could rise by approximately 15% to 20% based on May's export levels [5] - Prior to the escalation of conflict on June 12, the average oil price was $65 per barrel, suggesting that Brent crude prices should range between $75 and $78 per barrel [5] - JPMorgan previously analyzed that a larger conflict in the Middle East could lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially reducing Iranian oil exports by 2.1 million barrels per day, with prices soaring to between $120 and $130 per barrel [5] Group 4 - Maersk Group announced the suspension of its vessels from docking at Haifa Port in Israel due to the ongoing conflict, citing risks to crew safety [5] - The company stated that its established operations in the region have not yet been further disrupted [5]

美、布两油短线跳水后部分反弹，现分别报72.9美元/桶和74.95美元/桶。 ...

6月20日，布伦特原油期货8月合约结算价涨幅为2.8%，报78.85美元/桶，创下2024年7月中旬以来收盘新高。 据新华社报道，美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特6月19日表示，美国总统特朗普将在"接下来两周内"决定是否下令美军对伊朗发动打击。 伊朗再度进行威胁 据路透社报道，在6月19日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会主席团成员贝纳姆·萨伊迪（BehnamSaeedi）表示，伊朗有很多选择来回应其敌人，关闭霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗 的潜在选择之一。 不过另一名议员阿里·亚兹迪哈（AliYazdikhah）表示，只有在德黑兰的关键利益受到威胁时，才会采取这一影响全球经济的措施。他同时表示，如果美国正式且实 际参战以支持以色列，那么伊朗有合法权利向美国和西方国家施压，以破坏其石油贸易的过境便利性。 "伊朗的敌人很清楚，我们有数十种方法可以使霍尔木兹海峡变得不安全，这个选项对我们来说是可行的。"上述议员表示。据克拉克森统计的数据，全球11%的海 运贸易量经过霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括34%的海运石油出口、30%的液化石油气出口、20%的液化天然气贸易、18%的化学品贸易、7%的汽车贸易、3%的全球集装 箱贸易和2%的干散货。 宁夏大 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-20 EB开工进一步回升，PS库存压力仍存 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费158美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费141美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差45.8美元/吨（-3.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（+5元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差341元/吨（+24元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润255元/吨（+49元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润131元/吨（+11元/吨），PS生产利润-419元/吨（-39元/吨），ABS生产利润45元/吨（-65 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main driver of major aromatic hydrocarbon varieties lies in the upstream crude oil. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts and subsequent oil price fluctuations, which will impact the costs of pure benzene and styrene. The domestic production rate of pure benzene has reached a high level, while the downstream CPL production rate has further declined, dragging down the demand for pure benzene. The US-South Korea window for pure benzene remains closed, and there is still significant pressure for shipments to China. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to rise, and the processing fee for pure benzene is weak. For styrene itself, the arrival rhythm has slowed down, leading to a slight decrease in port inventory. Although the absolute amount of port inventory is still low, the port basis is firm. In the medium to long term, with the gradual increase in styrene production, there is an expectation of factory inventory accumulation. Downstream, the inventory of PS and ABS still faces pressure, and the production rate is also mediocre [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - The report presents multiple figures related to EB and pure benzene basis structure and spreads, including EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, styrene consecutive one - consecutive three contract spreads, styrene non - integrated device production profit, styrene spot import profit, East China pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene CFR China - naphtha spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB South Korea, and China pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Figures show the East China port inventory of pure benzene, the production rate of pure benzene, the East China port inventory of styrene, the production rate of styrene, the East China commercial inventory of styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene [25][27][30] Downstream Production Rate and Production Profit - The report includes figures on the production rate and production profit of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [42][44][45] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Figures display the production profit of various pure benzene downstream products, including caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [47][52][54]

上周日，以色列攻击沙赫兰油库引发大火，浓烟直冲云霄。图片来源：Getty Images 尽管伊朗和以色列仍在互射导弹，冲突短期内似乎难以结束，但原油价格在上周末大幅飙升之后，于周 一小幅下跌，这或许令人意外。 美国原油基准价格6月16日徘徊在每桶71美元左右，接近年初水平，但较一周前上涨约9%。当前油价被 认为是一个相对健康的水平——能让大多数石油生产商盈利，又不会导致燃料价格过高。 因此，尽管以色列上周末成功袭击了伊朗部分石油和天然气基础设施，石油市场却保持了相对平静。而 伊朗尽管目前处于相对劣势，据报道该国也表现出与美国重启核谈判的意愿。 为什么呢？以下是对这种情况的四点解读： 尽管以色列轰炸了油气设施和油田，但伊朗的石油出口基础设施无一受损 以色列袭击了伊朗的南帕尔斯天然气田、沙赫兰燃料库和沙赫雷伊炼油厂，但这些目标均服务于国内燃 料和电力消费，而非全球出口。这导致伊朗国内出现燃料抢购和潜在的短缺，但对全球石油市场以及伊 朗每日约150万桶的原油出口影响甚微。 能源预测专家、Pickering Energy Partners咨询研究公司创始人兼首席投资官丹·皮克林表示："各方都在 刻意避开石油[出口]基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to significant volatility in global markets, especially in oil and precious metals prices. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations including energy facilities, which resulted in fires and explosions [1][3] - Iran retaliated with missile attacks on June 16, hitting key infrastructure in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv, causing further damage [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The conflict has caused a dramatic increase in oil prices, with WTI crude oil surging over 14% on the day of the conflict, closing at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - Following the initial surge, WTI futures opened higher again on June 16, but the market showed signs of instability, with prices retracting before the close [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Projections - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil supply is disrupted, the global supply gap could reach 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel [4] - Morgan Stanley has revised its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67.50 per barrel, citing the conflict's impact on supply [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions, some analysts believe that the fundamental market dynamics will dictate long-term trends, with oil prices expected to stabilize above $60 per barrel in the coming years [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks are seen as temporary shocks, with the underlying fundamentals remaining the primary drivers of market performance [5]