Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are expected to be weak overall, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4490, in East China decreased by 9 to 4517, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4800; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1] - The CP import cost increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit decreased. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract slightly strengthened to 413, the 06 - 07 monthly spread increased by 27 to 95, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread increased by 16 to 159 [1] - The price of civil gas decreased significantly, ether - post carbon four rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB decreased, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; the freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The arrival of goods decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat. The commodity volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase, and the expected arrival of goods is also expected to increase [1] - Demand: The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week; the alkylation operating rate and commodity volume remained flat, profitability declined significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week; the MTBE price generally decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. The expected MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, and gasoline demand is difficult to increase, so the price may not fluctuate much. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of styrene has peaked and declined, reflecting that traders are realizing trading profits, and the downstream is in a loss state with low PS and ABS operating rates and continuous inventory pressure on finished products of the three major hard plastics. However, attention should be paid to the short - covering rhythm of previously over - sold traders. Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded. The low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene may improve due to the tariff reduction, but the subsequent arrival pressure of pure benzene still exists. The report suggests a cautious long - hedging strategy [2][3] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), the CFR China processing fee is $186/ton (+$12/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is $174/ton (+$17/ton), the US - Korea price difference is $31.7/ton (-$22.0/ton) and remains closed, and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main contract basis is 251 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton), the non - integrated production profit is 331 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] EB& Pure Benzene Operating Rates and Inventories - Pure benzene: The East China port inventory is related to the data of 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), and the operating rate is not specifically mentioned in the summarized key data [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 56,700 tons (-11,800 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 44,900 tons (-8,600 tons), and it is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate is 71.3% (-0.9%) [1] Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 240 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 62.34% (+14.96%) [1] - PS: The production profit is - 210 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.10% (+0.80%) [1] - ABS: The production profit is 363 yuan/ton (+747 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 67.39% (-1.61%) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profits - Not specifically summarized in the key data, but it mentions that the low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline are affected by factors such as the decline in exports of related products, and the impact of tariff reduction on their demand needs attention [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]

日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - period strategies [3] Core View - Affected by the decline in upstream crude oil, polyolefins are operating weakly. The increase in propane import tariffs will pressure the cost of PDH - made PP, and some PDH devices have temporarily shut down. New polyolefin devices are continuously being put into production, and the inventory of existing devices under maintenance is at a high level, alleviating supply pressure. The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak, and the overall inventory is being depleted [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL华东基差为343元/吨（+46），PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）；PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 677.0元/吨（-10.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not mentioned in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为 - 340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE生产企业库存总量季节性偏低，PP库存压力尚可，整体库存维持去化 [2]

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of polyolefins are oscillating strongly due to the boost from upstream crude oil. The future supply of PE is expected to remain high, while the supply pressure of PP is alleviated due to many device overhauls. The downstream operating rates of polyolefins continue to decline, and the overall inventory is slightly reduced. The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on plastics unilaterally, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7164 yuan/ton (+14), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+15). The LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 7380 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is 236 yuan/ton (-24), the LL East China basis is 216 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis is 188 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 83.8% (-0.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-2.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is 342.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 32.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 496.6 yuan/ton (-0.7) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 174.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), the PP import profit is - 331.8 yuan/ton (-20.0), and the PP export profit is 19.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.1% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.8% (+1.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.3% (-1.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.7% (-0.1%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly reduced. However, no specific inventory data is provided [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand for pure benzene remains weak, with high inventory pressure in PA6 and MDI, dragging down the low operation rates of caprolactam and aniline, and styrene is also undergoing centralized maintenance. The domestic pure benzene operation rate has further declined, and port inventory has decreased again, but there is still pressure from South Korea's shipments to China, and the pure benzene processing fee remains under pressure [2]. - Styrene maintenance has increased, the operation rate has significantly declined, and port inventory has continued to fall, but the port basis has weakened, reflecting downstream pressure. The operation rates of PS and ABS remain weak, and the finished - product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, with a generally weak fundamental situation [2]. - The market is concerned about the possible subsequent shutdown of US ethane - cracked ethylene - to - styrene plants, and attention should be paid to China's tariff policy on US ethane. The signal of the easing of the China - US tariff war on April 22 may support the market [2]. Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - Analyzes EB's main contract trend and basis, EB main contract basis, the difference between the first - and third - month styrene contracts, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, styrene's spot import profit, the price difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea for pure benzene, and China's pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Operation and Inventory - Covers the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the pure benzene operation rate, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the styrene operation rate, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the styrene factory inventory [22][24][27] Downstream Operation and Production Profit - Examines the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [35][42][43] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Analyzes the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [45][50][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].