Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 94.6 in October, marking a three-month decline and the lowest level since April this year, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook and job market [1] - A key indicator measuring consumer expectations regarding income, business, and labor market short-term outlook dropped to 71.5, the lowest since June, suggesting potential recession signals if it remains below 80 [3] - Despite a slight improvement in the perception of the current job market, the number of people finding it difficult to secure jobs has increased, highlighting structural imbalances in the employment market [3] Group 2 - Recent inflation data remains concerning, with rising gasoline prices pushing overall price levels up, while rental costs have decreased, creating an uneven economic landscape [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again this week, marking the second rate cut of the year as policymakers seek to balance inflation control and employment support [5] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, continuing a trend of weak job growth, with downward revisions in previous months indicating a slowdown influenced by prior rate hikes and trade policy uncertainties [6] Group 3 - Several large companies have announced layoffs as part of their market adjustment strategies, including Amazon planning to cut approximately 14,000 jobs, Target reducing about 1,800 positions, and Meta laying off around 600 employees [7] - These layoffs reflect companies' efforts to adapt to economic uncertainties through structural adjustments and business transformations [7] Group 4 - The stability and recovery of consumer confidence require a combination of factors, including sustained inflation moderation, robust employment market performance, and reduced policy uncertainties [9] - The upcoming months' economic data will provide clearer direction as the Federal Reserve adjusts its monetary policy and companies continue their strategic transformations [9]

Core Insights - The ongoing federal government "shutdown" has led to increased consumer concerns, resulting in a decline in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Consumer Confidence Index's components show a rise in the assessment of current business and employment conditions by 1.8 points to 129.3 [1] - The consumer expectations index, reflecting short-term income prospects and business conditions, fell by 2.9 points to 71.5, significantly below the recession threshold of 80 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The improvement in the assessment index indicates a slight recovery in consumer views on current business conditions and the job market, marking the first improvement since December 2024 [1] - All three components of the expectations index weakened, suggesting a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding future job opportunities and business conditions, along with a decline in optimism about future income [1] Group 3: Consumer Concerns - Consumers' written responses to the survey highlighted concerns about prices and inflation, which remain significant topics affecting their views on the U.S. economy [1] - There was a notable increase in mentions of U.S. politics in consumer feedback, with the ongoing federal government "shutdown" being a primary concern [1]

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank released an alternative model estimating the U.S. unemployment rate at approximately 4.3% for October 2025, consistent with the official rate from August, indicating a moderate cooling of the labor market without signs of sharp deterioration [1] - The model previously estimated the September unemployment rate at 4.34%, slightly lower than August's 4.35%, as the official data was not released due to the government shutdown [1] - The model integrates various private data sources, including job platforms and payroll processing services, showing a high correlation with historical official unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, responding to weakened economic momentum and uncertainty in the current "data vacuum" environment [2] - Analysts suggest that an early rate cut could help mitigate potential shocks if the unemployment rate suddenly rises due to economic downturns, which could significantly alter the labor market landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - The October business climate index in Germany has increased from 87.7 to 88.4, indicating a slight improvement in economic sentiment despite ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 1: Business Climate Index - The business climate index, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose to 88.4 in October from 87.7 in the previous month [1] - Among the four components of the business climate index, indicators for manufacturing, services, and trade have shown improvement, while the construction sector has declined [1] - The services sector, particularly tourism, has experienced a notable increase in its index [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - There are signs that the decline in new orders within the manufacturing sector has halted, although the issue of insufficient orders remains significant [1] Group 3: Business Sentiment - Satisfaction regarding current business conditions among German enterprises has decreased for the third consecutive month [1] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The director of the Munich Institute for Economic Research, Clemens Fuest, has stated that Germany is facing a "recession," calling for comprehensive reform measures from the federal government within the next six months to boost the economy [1] - The Munich business climate index is regarded as a key indicator for observing the economic situation in Germany [1]

Core Insights - The Munich Economic Institute reported that Germany's business climate index rose from 87.7 to 88.4 in October, indicating a slight improvement in economic sentiment [2] - Among the four components of the business climate index, manufacturing, services, and trade showed increases, while the construction sector experienced a decline [2] - The services sector saw significant growth, particularly in tourism, while the manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilizing new orders, although the issue of insufficient orders remains [2] - Despite the improvements in certain sectors, corporate satisfaction with current business conditions has declined for the third consecutive month [2] - The director of the Munich Economic Institute, Clemens Fuest, warned that Germany is facing a "recession" and called for comprehensive reform measures from the federal government within the next six months to boost the economy [2] - The business climate index is considered a key indicator for observing the economic situation in Germany [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high inflation rate of 3% in September, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will proceed with an interest rate cut next week, raising questions about the rationale behind this decision given the persistent inflation above the target level since January 2021 [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The current benchmark interest rate of 4%-4.25% is seen as high and is believed to be suppressing economic growth, leading to a consensus among economists that a policy shift is necessary [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation concerns to the state of the labor market, with many officials now prioritizing employment issues over inflation [2] Group 2: Employment Market - The U.S. employment market has shown signs of significant weakness, with private sector job growth nearly stagnating, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the last three months compared to 209,000 in the last three months of the previous year [3][4] - Trade uncertainties have led companies to slow down hiring, and when unable to pass on tariff costs to consumers, they often resort to layoffs, as evidenced by General Motors announcing layoffs of 200 employees [4] Group 3: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1, causing delays in the release of key economic data, including monthly employment figures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5] - Despite the data gap, the Federal Reserve has indicated that the core trends, such as employment weakness, remain unchanged, and the uncertainty in economic outlook is still high [6] Group 4: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with some economists believing that the rationale for the October cut will persist, while others express caution due to signs of rising inflation risks [7] - The decision for a potential December rate cut will heavily depend on forthcoming economic data, with the ongoing government shutdown complicating the availability of official data [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was lower than expected, raising questions about its impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices, with potential implications for market liquidity and risk appetite [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of CPI Data - A lower-than-expected CPI typically leads to reduced expectations for interest rate hikes, which can enhance market liquidity [3][4]. - Increased liquidity may drive more investments into high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially pushing their prices higher [3][4]. - The overall risk appetite in the market may improve, encouraging investors to take on more risk, benefiting cryptocurrencies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Considerations - The degree of the CPI miss (slight vs. significant) can influence market reactions, with minor misses likely causing only small fluctuations [5]. - Other macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and geopolitical events, can also significantly affect market direction [6]. - Market sentiment may already account for the possibility of interest rate cuts, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect where prices may not rise as expected after the data release [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - A lower CPI could indicate weak consumer demand, suggesting potential economic slowdown, which may negatively impact all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies [6][8]. - While inflation concerns may ease, worries about economic recession could rise, affecting the attractiveness of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum [8][9]. - Long-term trends in cryptocurrency prices will still be influenced by fundamental macroeconomic factors, including global economic growth and regulatory policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut but the smallest reduction in this cycle [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Inflation expectations remain high, which may hinder sustainable inflation reduction. The bank has revised its 2026 inflation forecast from 4% to a range of 4%-5% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for this year from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [3][4]. - Recent inflation spikes are attributed to seasonal factors and a weakening effect of the strengthening ruble, alongside fuel shortages exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank emphasizes the need to consider the cumulative impact of temporary inflationary factors on the process of reducing inflation expectations. Current inflation expectations stand at 12.6% for October [4][6]. - To achieve its inflation target by the end of next year, the bank believes that seasonally adjusted monthly data must remain close to 4% for an extended period [4][6]. Fiscal Policy Implications - The bank warns that the "inflation slowdown effect" for the 2025 budget will be significantly less than previously expected, indicating that changes in fiscal policy may necessitate corresponding adjustments in monetary policy [6][7]. - Decision-makers now anticipate an average key rate of 13%-15% for 2026, up from the previous forecast of 12%-13% [7]. External Factors - New sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil producer complicate the economic landscape, potentially reducing revenue from oil exports and increasing the risk of a hard landing for the economy [5][6].

Core Insights - The consumer sector has shown surprising resilience over the past five years, but recent data indicates potential cracks in consumer spending behavior, particularly among higher-income groups [2][4][11] Consumer Behavior - The New York Fed survey indicates that expectations regarding income after inflation are deteriorating most significantly among high-income consumers, while lower-income consumers are already under stress [3][4] - Spending on services, which typically remains stable, is beginning to decline, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending habits [8][10] - Despite the cautious sentiment, higher-income consumers have been sustaining their spending, but they are starting to notice economic changes and adjust their behaviors accordingly [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Given the current consumer sentiment and spending trends, the outlook for consumer discretionary investments appears less bullish, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies [13][14] - Financials may benefit from a potential economic downturn or interest rate cuts, as they typically perform well in volatile market conditions [14][18] - Caution is advised in sectors like housing, where buying activity is low despite ongoing discussions about housing shortages [15]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is under pressure against the US dollar as the market increasingly believes that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a more accommodative monetary policy stance for a longer period compared to the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent UK inflation data shows a significant cooling of price pressures, effectively eliminating market expectations for further rate hikes by the BoE [1] - The UK services and manufacturing sectors are experiencing contraction, with PMI indices falling below the 50.0 threshold, indicating a potential economic recession in Q4 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - Federal Reserve officials continue to adopt a hawkish tone, suggesting that US interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period, enhancing the appeal of the US dollar as a high-yield safe-haven asset [1] - The anticipated pause in the BoE's tightening cycle due to economic slowdown and persistent cost pressures poses further risks for the British pound [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around the 1.3340 level, with indications that it may break this range and initiate a third wave of decline, targeting 1.3213 [4] - The broader bearish wave structure has a primary target near the 1.2963 area, supported by the MACD indicator confirming ongoing bearish momentum [4] - The H1 chart indicates the formation of a broader first phase of the third wave down, with a near-term target of 1.3276, followed by potential corrective rebounds before resuming the downward trend [6]