Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report Group 2: Core Views - Treasury bond futures contracts rose this week except for the TL contract; due to the escalation of the Sino-US trade war over the weekend, treasury bond futures may open higher across the board on Monday [4][5] - Maintain the view that the medium - term general direction is oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - The treasury bond futures market this week showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak, with short - term stability and long - term pressure, and the yield curve flattened [5][7] - The core driving factors of the overall market include liquidity differentiation, policy game, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [7] Group 3: Section Summaries 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - After the holiday, the treasury bond futures showed an oscillating pattern of being strong first and then weak. Before the holiday, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase, and market funds rates continued to rise. After the holiday, funds were generally loose, which supported the bond market sentiment. However, the market was sensitive to policy expectations and marginal tightening of liquidity [5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Relevant data is presented in Figure 4, but specific content is not described in the text [11] 3. Seat Analysis - The daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.25%; foreign capital increased by 2.8%; wealth management subsidiaries increased by 3.57% [12]

Group 1 - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, marking a growth of over 1 trillion yuan from the end of July, with a growth rate of 3.34% [1] - The increase in public fund size reflects a recovery in the equity market and a restoration of investor confidence, indicating the attractiveness of capital markets for wealth management [1] - Equity funds and mixed funds have shown strong performance, with equity funds being the main driver of overall growth in public fund size [1] Group 2 - Investor willingness to allocate to equity funds has surged due to the recent market recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 7.97% in August, marking its best performance in nearly 11 months [2] - In August, a total of 1.02 billion new fund shares were issued, with equity funds accounting for 472 million shares, indicating a strong demand for equity investments [2] - While equity funds are performing well, bond funds have seen a decline in both size and shares, although there is still potential for growth in the bond market in the long term [2] Group 3 - Continuous policy benefits and reforms are creating a favorable environment for the development of public funds, with recent policies aimed at increasing the proportion of equity funds [3] - The ongoing reform of public fund fee structures is expected to enhance service quality, including investor education and diversified product design [3] - The public fund industry is encouraged to better meet the wealth management needs of residents while serving the real economy, focusing on value creation rather than just scale [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].

Group 1 - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds has been negative for seven consecutive months, with a financing gap of 32.64 billion yuan in September [1] - In September, the issuance of urban investment bonds was 482.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 4,091.83 billion yuan and total repayment of 4,277.05 billion yuan for the year [1] - The overall financing pace in the urban investment bond market remains tight, with an increase in registrations, a slowdown in approvals, and a rise in terminations [1] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets experienced a positive start, with government bond futures rising and major interest rates on bonds declining [2] - The investment environment in the bond market has become more challenging compared to last year, influenced by various factors including the resumption of VAT on bond investments and new regulations on public funds [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan on October 9 [6] - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market has been launched, aimed at facilitating foreign investment [6] Group 4 - In the first nine months of the year, Inner Mongolia's technology innovation bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 11.5 billion yuan, supporting technology enterprises with core technologies [9] - Yunnan province has issued guidelines to encourage state-owned enterprises to acquire and revitalize historical risk real estate projects, while ensuring no new hidden government debt [9] Group 5 - The issuance of company bonds by Zhengzhou Road and Bridge Group is set at 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA [11] - The first expansion of a holding-type real estate ABS has been completed, raising an additional 453 million yuan, bringing the total scale to 1.623 billion yuan [13] Group 6 - The market sentiment regarding the bond market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a potential rebound in October, although institutions advise against chasing prices [20][21] - The bond market environment is improving, with better asset pricing and a focus on defensive strategies, particularly in the short to medium-term credit space [20]

假期后首个交易日，在上证指数时隔10年重新站上3900点关口的同时，债市延续节前最后一个交易日的 反弹趋势，进一步回温。 截至收盘，国债期货各主力合约全面收涨。其中，30年期国债期货报收114.53元，涨幅0.46%；10年期 国债期货报收108.045元，涨幅0.15%；5年期国债期货报收105.730元，涨幅0.07%；2年期国债期货报收 102.394元，涨幅0.02%。 现券方面，当天银行间市场主要利率债收益率多数下行。其中，10年期国债"25附息国债 11"（250011.IB）收益率下行0.6BP（基点）报1.777%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"（250002.IB） 收益率下行0.5BP报2.125%，7年期国债"25附息国债07"（250007.IB）收益率下行1.5BP报1.7025%。 回顾节前表现，9月30日，债市在连续两日下跌后大幅上涨，250011.IB收益率下行至1.78%，超长债则 延续弱势，250002.IB收益率下行1.5BP，但仍在2.13%的高位。 今年以来，股债市场跷跷板效应持续上演，债市表现与去年的单边债牛相比明显走弱，整体呈宽幅震荡 走势。其中，10年期品 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market initiated a significant bull market on September 24, 2023, driven by a series of policy measures, with core indices showing remarkable gains: the ChiNext Index increased by 97.21%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 34.60%, and the Shenzhen Component Index climbed by 58.33% [2][4] - As of September 19, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 104 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 36 trillion yuan over the past year, with around 3,140 stocks rising over 50%, and more than 1,530 stocks doubling in value [4] Private Equity Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the stock strategy index recorded a gain of 45.46%, outperforming the comprehensive index's 35.13% increase, indicating a strong preference for equity investments among investors [6][11] - The average return for subjective long-only strategies was 64.80%, with an average alpha of 19.41% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.60, while quantitative long strategies showed even higher returns, particularly the CSI 1000 index-enhanced strategy, which achieved a return of 94.90% [8][11] Strategy Insights - The report highlights the importance of diversifying investment strategies to mitigate risks, especially in light of recent market volatility and policy changes that could impact stock performance [12] - Investors are encouraged to consider a mix of strategies, including bonds, CTA, and multi-asset strategies, which have shown promising average returns over the past year [12] Notable Trends - The private equity sector has seen an increase in the number of billion-yuan private equity firms, reaching 94, with significant performance from various funds focusing on technology and innovation sectors [14] - The report also notes the strong performance of certain technology stocks, particularly in the AI and robotics sectors, which have attracted substantial investment [14]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the significant expansion of the domestic science and technology innovation bond ETF market, with the second batch of 14 ETFs launched, bringing the total to 24, highlighting the growing importance of these products in supporting financing for innovative enterprises [7][8] - It emphasizes the dual strategy of wealth management companies to capitalize on the recovering equity market by expanding product offerings and enhancing research capabilities [11][12] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The launch of the second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs on September 24 marks a significant expansion of this market, with wealth management companies becoming key investors in these products [7] - Wealth management companies are increasing their allocation to science and technology bond ETFs for liquidity management, risk diversification, and to align with national policy directions [8][9] Performance of Financial Products - Last week, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.30%, up 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.22%, up 3 basis points [16] - The yield on 10-year government bonds remained stable at 1.80%, while credit spreads widened due to increased selling pressure in the credit bond market [17][19] Company Innovations - Jianxin Wealth Management successfully issued its first structured financial product linked to gold, which received widespread recognition from individual investors [13][14] - Chery Automobile's IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was the largest for a car company this year, with Zhongyou Wealth Management participating as a cornerstone investor [14][15] Research and Investment Strategies - Wealth management companies are enhancing their research efforts on listed companies, focusing on sectors such as new energy, technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals, with a significant increase in the number of research engagements [11][12] - The shift towards equity investments is seen as a response to low interest rates and the need for improved product competitiveness in a challenging market environment [12][15] Tracking of Financial Metrics - The broken net rate of bank wealth management products rose to 3.65%, indicating increased pressure in the credit bond market, with credit spreads widening [19][21] - The article highlights the need for wealth management companies to strengthen their investment research capabilities and manage liquidity risks effectively in the current market landscape [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

Core Insights - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical high this year [1][3] - Active equity funds have been the main contributors to this growth, with stock fund net value increasing by 12.76% month-on-month [1][4] - The performance of the A-share market in August has created a favorable environment for public fund issuance, leading to strong investor participation [3][4] Fund Scale and Performance - As of the end of August, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.25 trillion yuan, with an increase of over 1.17 billion units from the previous month [3] - The number of public fund management institutions stands at 164, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [3] Equity Fund Highlights - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97% in August, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw increases of 15.32% and 24.13%, respectively [4] - Stock fund shares increased by 796.68 million units, with a net value growth of 6.28 billion yuan, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase [4] - New fund issuance in August totaled 1.02 billion units, with equity funds accounting for a substantial portion of this growth [4] Bond Fund Trends - Bond funds experienced a decline in both share and net value in August, with over 950 million units and a net value decrease of over 28.5 billion yuan [5] - Convertible bond funds performed well, achieving an average return of 6.29%, while passive index bond funds lagged behind [5] Market Outlook - Despite recent market fluctuations, the outlook for the domestic bond market remains positive, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [6] - The total scale of money market funds remained stable at approximately 14.81 trillion yuan, showing a growth of about 196.3 billion yuan from the end of July [6] - QDII funds saw an increase of 534 million units and a net value growth of 67.2 billion yuan, driven by significant gains in both the US and Hong Kong stock markets [6]