Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US-China economic negotiations and its impact on the financial markets, highlighting the importance of upcoming meetings and the overall market sentiment [5][7]. Financial Market Overview - The interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with a notable increase in long-term bond yields [3]. - The central bank conducted a 1,890 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 2,538 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan [3]. - The funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.43% [3]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed a slight upward trend, influenced by comments from former President Trump regarding tariffs on China, which were deemed unsustainable [5][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, opening at 1.7525% and reaching approximately 1.768% [5]. - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged, aligning with market expectations [5]. Upcoming Events - Key negotiations between US and Chinese representatives are scheduled in Malaysia, with significant implications for future trade relations [7]. - The upcoming APEC meeting is highlighted as a critical moment for high-level discussions between the two nations [7].

Core Insights - In September 2023, China did not import any soybeans from the United States for the first time since November 2018, marking a significant shift in trade dynamics [1] - As the world's largest soybean importer, China is increasing its purchases from South American countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina, to replace U.S. soybeans [1][2] - U.S. farmers are facing pressure from falling soybean prices and are seeking government assistance due to the loss of the Chinese market [3] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China's soybean imports from Brazil reached 63.7 million tons from January to September 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] - Imports from Argentina during the same period totaled 2.9 million tons, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 31.8% [1] - The shift in imports has resulted in record-high volumes of soybean purchases from South America by China [1] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Farmers - U.S. farmers are expressing dissatisfaction due to the loss of the Chinese market, which is leading to downward pressure on soybean prices [3] - Many farmers are urgently awaiting government assistance, which is currently stalled due to a government shutdown [3]

Group 1 - President Trump claims that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, warning of "huge" tariffs if this commitment is not fulfilled [1] - The issue of Russian oil purchases has been a core point of contention in the lengthy US-India trade negotiations, with Trump's 50% tariffs on Indian goods partly aimed at countering India's procurement of Russian oil [1] - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western countries ceased purchasing Russian oil, leading India to become the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil [1] Group 2 - Indian refining companies have placed oil orders for November shipments, with some expected to arrive in December, indicating that any reduction in oil imports may not be reflected until December or January [2] - Commodity data company Kpler estimates that due to increased Russian oil exports following drone attacks on Russian refineries, India's imports of Russian oil are expected to rise by approximately 20% this month, reaching 1.9 million barrels per day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - **Copper**: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - **Lead**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between Canada and the United States has fundamentally changed, with Canada now viewing its dependency on the U.S. as a risk rather than an opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Canada-U.S. Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledges that the U.S. is no longer the partner it once was, indicating a shift in priorities [1]. - Carney's approach to the U.S. has changed significantly from his campaign rhetoric, as he now emphasizes the need for Canada to stabilize its bilateral relationship with the U.S. [3][4]. - The cancellation of Canada's digital services tax, which was intended to impact U.S. tech giants, was influenced by U.S. pressure, showcasing the U.S.'s significant influence over Canadian policy [3][5]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Carney stated that Canada must create a more integrated domestic economy and diversify its external relations to avoid being in a passive position regarding U.S. influence [4]. - During discussions about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Canada aims to highlight the importance of economic integration in key sectors like steel and automobiles for U.S. competitiveness [4][5]. - Despite a positive atmosphere during a recent meeting between Carney and Trump, no agreement on tariffs was reached, indicating ongoing challenges in trade negotiations [6][8]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump expressed a desire to replace Canadian products in the U.S. market with American-made goods, suggesting a tough stance on trade negotiations [6]. - The Canadian government is under pressure to respond to U.S. demands, with Ontario's Premier suggesting retaliatory tariffs if an agreement is not reached soon [8].

中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就双边经贸关系中的重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。（新华社）外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):CNBC：美国财长贝森特今天将与中国副总理何立峰通话，讨论贸易谈判。 ...

Core Insights - The strategic significance of rare earth elements is increasingly highlighted, with a notable focus on the ongoing competition between China and the United States in this sector [1][6] - China's recent export controls on rare earths are a strong policy response to U.S. pressures, indicating its determination in trade negotiations [1][9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's proposal to extend the tariff truce in exchange for concessions from China reflects a desperate attempt to navigate the complex trade landscape [3][5] Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are essential for modern technology, used in products ranging from smartphones to electric vehicles and defense weapons [1] - China holds a dominant position as the largest producer of rare earths, which has become a critical point of leverage in U.S.-China trade relations [1][6] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is attempting to utilize the upcoming expiration of a 24% tariff suspension as leverage, but its lack of proactive engagement raises questions about its strategy [3] - China's consistent stance of "open to talks, but ready to fight" has bolstered international confidence in its position [3][5] Group 3: China's Response and Strategy - China has issued multiple announcements to reinforce its control over rare earths, signaling its commitment to defending its interests [5][9] - The measures include special port fees for U.S. vessels and investigations into companies like Qualcomm, demonstrating China's resolve [5] Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing rare earth competition is a microcosm of the larger U.S.-China rivalry, encompassing technology leadership, market share, and strategic resource control [6][9] - The outcome of this conflict will significantly impact the global economic landscape and the stability of international relations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn is characterized by widespread declines, with over 4,800 stocks falling, indicating a significant impact across the board [2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent drop in the market is attributed to high profit-taking in the technology sector and ongoing uncertainties in trade negotiations, leading to a lack of investor confidence [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown weakness around the 3,900-point level, with a lack of buying interest in high-positioned technology stocks, suggesting a potential downward trend [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - U.S. Treasury Secretary's controversial remarks and aggressive trade policies have heightened fears in global markets, particularly concerning rare earth policies that have prompted collective panic in Europe and Japan [4] - The upcoming key events, including domestic meetings and international summits, are expected to influence market direction, with potential trade negotiation outcomes being critical [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, incorporating both defensive and technology stocks, while avoiding high-priced stocks until a clearer market bottom is established [3][5] - The expectation is for the Shanghai Composite Index to fluctuate between 3,900 and 3,800 points until further news on trade negotiations and monetary policy is released [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Macquarie suggests that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging market inflows and improved liquidity in H-shares will provide support for the A-share market in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The company currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the company remains optimistic about A-share performance in the medium term, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The company favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] - Selected high-beta, high-quality stocks that are currently undervalued include BYD Company Limited (01211), Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ), Anta Sports Products Limited (02020), and Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (06862) [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, affected by rainfall in some areas of North China and Shandong, terminal demand is suppressed, cost - end support is limited, and the market is waiting and seeing. Traders in these two regions lowered prices, pushing down the average market price. In the East China Zhenjiang area, low - priced resources impact sales. The sales of the main refineries in the South China market are relatively stable, and the asphalt price remains unchanged. In the future, competition among asphalt brands in the northern market will intensify, and prices may be weak in the short - term due to low demand. In the South China market, demand may gradually release with better weather, supporting local prices. The main refineries in East China mainly ship by sea, and prices are expected to remain stable [5] 3. Key Information Summaries 3.1 Asphalt Price Data - **Spot prices**: In different regions, the current spot prices in East China are 3500 - 3720, in Northeast China not mentioned, in North China 3450, in South China 3400, in Northwest China 3980, and in Shandong 3460. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0 (- 30) in East China, (- 20) in North China, (- 10) in South China, 0 in Northwest China, and (- 10) in Shandong [1] - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures contracts such as BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3470, 3154, 3250, 3184, and 3164 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0.00%, - 0.41%, - 1.22%, - 0.84%, and - 0.35% respectively [1] 3.2 International News - On October 13, Trump first said he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the US, but then said the threat might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. Market selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the negotiation results [1] - China's crude oil imports in September increased by 3.9% year - on - year to 1125 barrels per day, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level, supporting demand [2] - Trump said he might provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved. Medvedev warned that supplying these missiles "might harm everyone, especially Trump" [2] - On October 13, Hamas released the first batch of seven Israeli hostages, starting a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza conflict, which Trump helped to promote [2] - OPEC's daily crude oil production in September was 2844 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.4 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 24.8 million barrels. OPEC +'s daily production was 4305 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 63 million barrels [2]