Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term crude oil market is expected to oscillate. The Iran nuclear negotiation will be held this week, and Iran's stance on not giving up the nuclear program will provide some support for oil prices in the short term. However, as the August 1 deadline for the US tariff exemption approaches, there are still many pressures in trade negotiations, and the EU is in a negotiation deadlock, which may bring pressure on future oil prices. Short - term crude oil will operate in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said the Trump administration focuses on the quality of the trade agreement rather than the timing. The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US. Iran will hold a nuclear negotiation with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday, and it still hasn't given up the nuclear program. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.96 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.28 per barrel. The basis was 10.33 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 213,000 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels. Overall, it's bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main positions**: As of July 15, the main positions of WTI crude oil were long, but the long positions decreased. The main positions of Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term crude oil will oscillate between 505 - 515, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - The market is not overly worried about Trump's tough stance in the letter. Many traders believe he may not impose higher tariffs on August 1. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen downplayed the importance of the August 1 deadline, emphasizing the quality of the trade agreement. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described August 1 as the hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs [5]. - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, causing concerns about crude oil demand. As the August 1 deadline approaches, Trump's trade negotiation stance has become tougher, and the EU is formulating counter - measures [5]. - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including sanctioning India's Nayara Energy Company for processing Russian crude oil and further lowering the price cap of Russian crude oil. The restrictions on Russian diesel will take full effect next January, and the market doesn't worry too much about supply [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The resurgence of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increasing summer demand [6]. - **Bearish factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts will boost the market, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the medium - to - long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.10%, - 0.15%, - 1.57%, and - 0.38% respectively [7]. - **Spot market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil changed by - 1.05%, - 0.21%, - 0.01%, - 0.38%, and 0.10% respectively [9]. - **Inventory data**: The API inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position was 162,427, a decrease of 46,947 from the previous period [16]. - **Brent crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position data was not provided completely, but the long positions increased compared to the previous period [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declined by 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points [1] - The Nasdaq index increased by 0.38% to 20,974.17 points, and the S&P 500 index rose by 0.14% to 6,305.60 points [1] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google A up 2.72%, Amazon up 1.43%, Meta up 1.23%, Apple up 0.62%, while Tesla fell by 0.35% and Nvidia dropped by 0.60% [3] - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, sold 75,000 shares valued at approximately $12.94 million on July 18, following a total reduction of 1.35 million shares worth $215 million from June 20 to July 17 [3] Chinese Stocks - The China Golden Dragon Index decreased by 0.28% [4] - Notable performers included Huya, which surged over 16%, and Douyu, which rose by 6.23% [5] - NIO increased by 2.73%, Yum China by 1.82%, and Baidu by 1.13% [6] Oil and Gold Prices - Oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude oil settling around $67 per barrel [9] - Gold prices rose by 1.42% to $3,397.48 per ounce, briefly surpassing the $3,400 mark during the day [12] Federal Reserve and Economic Policies - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July is nearly zero, with traders now estimating over a 50% chance of a cut in September [14] - Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for clues on potential rate cuts [15] - The recent tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [17][18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in Germany's stance towards the U.S. regarding trade tariffs, moving from a more conciliatory approach to a stronger opposition, aligning more closely with France's hardline position [1][4][5] - The U.S. has raised its demands in trade negotiations with the EU, seeking to impose minimum tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU goods, which could provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [2][3] - Germany's initial strategy was to quickly reach an agreement with the U.S., but recent developments have led to a unified stance among EU countries to prepare for potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs [4][5][6] Group 2 - The EU is still hopeful for a trade agreement with the U.S., but the increasing demands from the U.S. have made it difficult to reach a consensus [2][3] - Germany's economic dependence on the U.S. market has historically influenced its more moderate approach, but the current aggressive stance from the U.S. has forced Germany to consider stronger countermeasures [6][7] - The shift in Germany's position may encourage other EU member states to adopt a similar hardline approach, potentially leading to a more unified EU response against U.S. tariffs [7]

美国贸易代表办公室数据显示，2024年美国与欧盟货物贸易总额约9759亿美元，高于与任何其他单 一经济体的货物贸易额。2024年美国对欧盟货物贸易逆差为2356亿美元，较前一年增加12.9%。（记 者：邓仙来） "不，不，那是硬启动日期。也就是说，8月1日新关税措施就将生效。"卢特尼克进一步解释说，美 方关税起征日并非贸易谈判的截止日，"没有什么能阻止其他国家在8月1日后（继续）与我们对话，但 从8月1日起这些关税还是得征"。 近日，美国总统特朗普先后致信多国领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。7月12日， 特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对欧盟输美商品征收30%的关税，称欧盟的关税和非关税贸易壁垒导致美对 欧出现巨额贸易逆差。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩13日对媒体表示，欧盟决定推迟原定于布鲁塞尔时间14日零时实施的对美 反制措施，以期同美方达成贸易协议，但如果未能达成协议，"我们将继续准备（实施）反制措施，我 们完全做好准备"。 新华社北京7月21日电 美国商务部长卢特尼克当地时间20日说，美方有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议， 但8月1日作为美方拟向欧盟输美产品征收30%关税的起始日期是"硬性"的，此后双方仍可 ...

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消息人士：美国贸易立场强硬之下，欧盟准备报复计划 金十数据7月20日讯，据外媒报道，欧盟特使最早将于本周举行会议，以制定应对与美国总统特朗普可 能出现"无协议"情形的对策计划。在8月1日的最后期限之前，特朗普的关税谈判立场被视为已经变得强 硬。虽然绝大多数人倾向于让与华盛顿的谈判继续进行下去，以期在下个月的最后期限之前达成一个解 决僵局的谈判结果。但据知情人士透露，自上周在华盛顿举行会谈以来，各方的努力尚未取得持续进 展。谈判将在未来两周内继续进行。不愿透露姓名的知情人士透露，美国现在似乎希望对欧盟商品征收 高于10%的关税，豁免范围日益缩小，仅限于航空业、部分医疗设备和仿制药、若干酒类饮品，以及美 国所需的一类特定制造设备。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...