Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after briefly surpassing the 3500-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.51 trillion, an increase of 51.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market showed mixed performance across sectors, with innovative drugs, pharmaceuticals, gaming, film, and coal leading gains, while gold stocks, non-ferrous metals, and chips lagged [1] Economic Indicators - In June, China's CPI turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.70%, influenced by seasonal weather and rising oil prices [3] - The decline in food prices was noted at 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices increasing by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] - Domestic consumption policies have supported prices in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing consumer confidence issues and international trade risks, China's CPI and PPI face significant pressure, with potential for a 10 basis point rate cut by the central bank in Q4 [4] - This could open up more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] International Developments - The "Big Beautiful" Act signed by Trump on July 4th expands the U.S. fiscal deficit, potentially supporting U.S. economic growth and impacting various sectors differently [5] - Traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors may benefit from tax advantages, while clean energy and healthcare may face reduced incentives [5] Copper Market Dynamics - The new 50% tariff on copper imports to the U.S. announced by Trump has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with U.S. copper prices rising sharply [6][10] - The current trading environment for copper is characterized by a contango structure in COMEX and a backwardation structure in LME, influenced by inventory levels and tariff expectations [10] - The anticipated tariff may reduce demand for U.S. copper, as significant stockpiling has already occurred, potentially leading to a decline in price differentials [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the 60 ETF (159881) and mining ETF (561330) as potential low-entry points in the current market environment [10]

Token Overview - HEST total supply is 1 billion [1] - HEST employs an inflation + deflation mechanism to balance ecosystem needs [1] Utility - HEST is the sole medium for participating in contests, paying fees, and governance voting [3] - Users can stake HEST to earn platform revenue, such as transaction fees and liquidity rewards [4] - HEST can be used as a payment method for participating in competitions, paying handling fees, and purchasing NFT identities [7] - HEST can be used for governance rights, voting to decide the platform's development direction [7] - HEST can be used as a financial tool for staking to generate interest, leveraged lending, and liquidity mining [7] Token Allocation - 50% is locked for a loss compensation mechanism to protect user rights [6] - 30% is allocated to liquidity pools and ecosystem incentives to support DeFi staking and LP rewards [6] - 10% is allocated to institutions and the team, with a 4-year linear release [6] - 5% is allocated to project party revenue rewards to incentivize high-quality content [6] - 2.5% is allocated to node mining to support governance and verification [6] - 2.5% is allocated to community airdrops and activities for initial user acquisition [6] Platform Revenue - Platform revenue sources include project listing fees, transaction fees, and DeFi protocol profit sharing [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cash is not the fastest depreciating asset in China; instead, it is expected to be real estate, fuel vehicles, university degrees, and electronic products [1][2][4][6][8][10] - The average national housing price has decreased by over 30% from its peak, with ongoing declines expected, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [4] - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant depreciation in fuel vehicles, with reports of a nearly 10 million yuan drop in value within a year for certain models [6] Group 2 - The value of university degrees is declining, with many graduates struggling to find jobs, leading to a situation where practical experience is prioritized over academic qualifications [8] - Electronic products are depreciating rapidly due to the frequent introduction of new models and reduced consumer spending, resulting in a decline in market demand [10]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices weakened, with the ChiNext Index down over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.59%. Nearly 2,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined [1] - Government bond futures mostly opened higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04%, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract flat [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) opened high and fluctuated throughout the day, with a slight increase of 3 basis points and a trading volume of nearly 600 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Overnight SHIBOR, although showing a small decrease, remains at a low level around 1.3000%, below last year's peak, suggesting a shift in institutional strategies as the previous heavy bets on low interest rates are being corrected [1] - Beijing Shichuang Futures noted that since mid-April 2025, government bond futures have been lackluster, with low volatility and limited opportunities for both bulls and bears, but a potential upward space is expected in Q3 [1] Economic Context - The average loan interest rate in Q1 2025 remains high at 3.75%, with the actual interest rate estimated at 4.52%, which is considered restrictive for the economy, especially in a deflationary context [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been tempered, with only a 10 basis point cut occurring on May 7, despite earlier predictions of a 30-40 basis point reduction [2] - Factors influencing the slow pace of rate cuts include stable economic conditions, minimal tariff impacts, ongoing fiscal policy effects, and external pressures from the US Federal Reserve's delayed rate cuts [2] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in Q3, which could lead to a more aggressive domestic monetary policy response, potentially benefiting government bond futures [3] - The Boshi 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, tracks the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" and is sensitive to interest rate changes, making it a noteworthy investment option [3]

上周全球资本市场表现如何？ 周周芝道 - 牛市的条件是否充分 20250706 摘要 美国国债利率上周受小非农数据影响先降后升，未来需关注美国通胀数 据及降息节奏。预计 9 月可能降息，此前美债利率或将持续波动，同时 需警惕欧洲财政风险的外溢效应。 近期美元指数走弱与美国经济数据及欧洲财政扩张相关，下半年美元走 弱速度可能放缓，此前多种因素叠加推动美元走弱，这些因素在下半年 难以再度叠加，全球资产定价中美元走弱的逻辑可能面临调整。 中国 A 股上周表现强劲，大盘价值风格明显占优，主要受"反内卷"概 念关注。但当前需求疲软，供给侧改革若削减中下游企业利润，可能加 剧需求疲弱，实现类似 2016 年效果存疑。 6 月中国出口表现良好，制造业 PMI 显示生产和出口均不错，但中小企 业生产景气度边际走弱。上半年出口强劲，但动能可能减弱，下半年外 需或走低，内需方面房地产市场连续两月下滑，内外需求均呈现收缩态 势。 全球资本市场方面，美国财政政策引发讨论，非农数据调整降息预期， 影响全球美元流动性。欧洲财政扩张信号有所逆转，但实际落地可能要 等到明年，这些因素共同影响全球资本市场定价。 Q&A 上周全球资本市场表现较 ...

在进入到2025年之后，社会各界对现金有不同的看法。有人认为，国内货币超发严重，通胀即将到来，手持 现金就会资产贬值。此外，现在银行存款利率低得可怜，还是应该赶紧把现金拿出来用于投资和消费。也有 人觉得，当前处于通缩周期，各种不确定因素会很多，而且物价越来越便宜。所以，手持现金不仅不会遭遇 购买力下降的问题，而且还能应对很多突发事情。 事实上，现在国内经济，确实处于通缩的周期之内，并没有像一些人说的那样通胀已经来临。从数据来看， 5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%。为此，有业内人士表示，在通缩周期之 内，手里有现金的人，可能要笑到最后了。主要原因有以下4个： 原因一：通缩已现，手里的钱越来越值钱 现在国内很多商品的价格在下跌。比如，猪肉价格从之前的每斤30多元，跌到了18元。而洗衣机、吸尘器、 电风扇等小家电，都有10-15%的价格跌幅。就连中档轿车，也从原来的25万，跌到现在18万。此外，全国 平均房价也从最高位跌去了30%以上。显然，在通缩的环境下，现金越来越值钱了。那手里有大量现金的 人，当然会笑得合不拢嘴了。 原因二：手持现金可以规避投资风险 原因三：现金在关键时候让 ...

Group 1 - The possibility of a zero interest rate era is discussed, with examples from Japan, the US, and Europe, raising the question of whether China could also experience this situation as its one-year interest rate is already below 1% [2] - China's economic downward pressure has been evident since 2012, with GDP growth rates declining from double digits, indicating a shift in economic dynamics, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand [2] - The reliance on external demand to supplement internal demand is diminishing, especially with the impact of trade wars, suggesting that the zero interest rate era may not be far off for China [2] Group 2 - In a potential zero interest rate era, individuals are advised to avoid risky investments, as overall asset values are expected to shrink, making a conservative investment approach more favorable [4] - The zero interest rate environment is often associated with economic depression, as seen during the Great Depression in the US, where unemployment surged, posing significant challenges for the middle class [4] - The focus should be on job security rather than maintaining dignity, as employment becomes the priority in a challenging economic landscape [4] Group 3 - The greatest pressure is on debt, with the need for balance sheet cleaning being more critical than merely lowering deposit rates, as seen in historical cases during financial crises [6] - The average wage level in society may decline significantly during a depression, leading to a situation where cash becomes more valuable compared to assets [8] - In a deflationary context, even with zero interest rates on deposits, holding cash may be a safer option as purchasing power could increase [8]

Currency Market Overview - The Euro is fluctuating around 1.1760 against the US Dollar, while the British Pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is under pressure, remaining below 145.00, and the Australian Dollar is consolidating below 0.6600 [1] - The Canadian Dollar has dropped to around 1.3570, approaching an eight-month low of approximately 1.3540 [1] Key Developments in the US Dollar - President Trump announced that a tariff letter will be issued on Friday, with a floating range of 10%-70%, effective from August 1 [2] - US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2] - Federal Reserve's Bostic noted that the labor market remains healthy, and the US economy may experience prolonged high inflation [2] Developments in Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB official Demarco stated that the Euro will not replace the Dollar as a reserve currency [3] - Japan's FY2025 wage growth forecast has been revised down to 5.25%, remaining above 5% for two consecutive years [3] - The Bank of England's survey indicates that UK businesses have lowered their wage growth expectations for the year [3] - ECB's Lagarde emphasized the need to improve the economy to enhance the Euro's global standing [3] Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD is trading above bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1570 [6] - The Australian Dollar/USD has broken through a multi-week range, indicating an upward trend, with key support at 0.6540-0.6530 [7] - The Dollar/Canadian Dollar has faced resistance near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Switzerland's June adjusted unemployment rate and the Eurozone's May PPI [8]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant developments, particularly regarding interest rates and currency valuations, which could impact investment strategies and economic forecasts. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that some members believe current interest rates should be maintained, highlighting concerns about the potential dangers of euro appreciation for exporters [3] - A Reuters survey shows that 19 out of 27 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates at 3.25% on July 9, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a rate cut to 3.00% in Q3 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading futures traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [5] - The labor market in the U.S. remains healthy, with the possibility of prolonged high inflation, according to Federal Reserve official Bostic [5] - The ECB warns that a heatwave could impact inflation and economic growth [5] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - ECB official Demarco stated that the euro is unlikely to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency [5] - The Bank of Japan has revised its salary increase forecast for FY2025 down to 5.25%, maintaining a level above 5% for two consecutive years [5] - The Polish central bank governor mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September if data permits [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]