转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月28日电 黄金价格的历史波动始终与全球经济格局、技术革命浪潮和货币体系变革深度 绑定。回顾布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的50年，国际黄金市场经历了三轮标志性牛市与两次主要熊市，每一 轮周期的背后都折射出技术迭代与货币霸权的博弈轨迹。 当前国际黄金价格突破3700美元／盎司的历史新高，不仅是对全球货币政策宽松的即时反应，更是技术 优势转移、美元信用弱化与"去美元化"浪潮叠加的必然结果。从金价决定因素的演变趋势看，支撑国际 金价的基本面因素在短期和中长期均未发生实质性改变。因此，2025年国际黄金价格的新高可能只是长 期上涨趋势中的一个里程碑，而非终点。 黄金市场周期的历史镜像：技术革命与货币霸权的博弈 第一轮黄金大牛市（1971年8月至1980年1月）持续8年半，国际金价从布雷顿森林体系瓦解前的35美元 ／盎司飙升至1980年1月的850美元／盎司，累计涨幅约2328.57%。其核心驱动力是美国双赤字扩张与 滞胀危机引发的美元信用崩塌。这一时期技术革命处于酝酿阶段，美国尚未建立新的产业优势，黄金作 为"货币危机对冲工具"的属性得到极致释放。 第二轮黄金大牛市（2001年2月至2011年8 ...

【华通白银网9月26日讯】卡斯货运指数（Cass Freight Index）在2025年8月跌至1.017，为过去10年的最低水平之一。由于整个制造业和 零售业的需求疲软，货运量继续下降。 下图显示，这种急剧下降与2008年和2020年经济衰退期间的情况相似。表明经济收缩，商业活动减少。货运指数走弱反映出GDP增速放 缓和信贷环境收紧。 这些数据支撑看涨黄金的观点。货运量的下降预示着潜在的经济衰退。经济疲软增加了美联储进一步降息的可能性。利率下降和不确定 性上升推动了对黄金的需求。随着工业活动放缓，投资者越来越多地转向保值。脆弱的货运市场加强了黄金和白银价格在2025年第四季 度的积极前景。 金价创下3791美元的历史新高，随后回落以建立新的支撑。突破这一水平可能会引发下一波向4000美元的上涨。 黄金技术分析 黄金日线图-看涨盘整 现货金的日线图显示，金价触及3791美元的纪录高位，目前正在高位盘整。在3600美元关口上方的盘整表明，黄金将继续看涨，一旦支 撑位得到确认，该货币对可能会转向上行。 在纪录高位附近的停顿也反映了极度超买的情况，预示着在下一次上涨之前可能出现短期回调。强劲支撑位仍在3,600- ...

9月26日，记者探访济南市泉城路多家金店，其中周大福足金饰品报价1108元/克，周生生足金饰品报价 1106元/克，老庙黄金足金饰品报价1106元/克，多家品牌金饰价格都超过了1100元/克。 随着美联储降息"靴子"落地，国际金价连日来延续涨势，COMEX黄金期货多个合约价格陆续创出历史 新高。今年以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升并突破3700美元/盎司大关，累计 上涨超过1000美元/盎司，年内涨幅达40%。 对于后续走势，多家机构虽然进一步上调对金价的预期，但也持续提示回调风险。 金饰克价首次站上1100元 随着国际黄金价格走高，国内金饰价格也持续上涨，首次站上1100元/克。 避险需求与央行增持的双重驱动 黄金是规避风险的投资标的。这轮金价走强的主要逻辑，是国际地缘政治紧张、美国经济衰退以及降息 预期等因素，造成投资人的避险心态。尤其是中东与东欧地缘风险局势仍在发酵，推动金价突破关键关 口。 银河期货贵金属高级研究员王露晨表示，8月份以来，美国多项宏观数据不及预期，其中劳动力市场降 温显著，交易者对未来的流动性宽松预期较强，导致新一轮降息预期升温。但海外市场多个主要经济体 的长期 ...

智通财经APP获悉，盛宝银行分析师周三表示，在突破3800美元/盎司关口后，黄金价格正迎来自1979 年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。得益于美联储降息、全球央行购金与ETF资金流入，以及持续地缘政治不确 定性引发的强烈避险需求，今年迄今黄金期货涨幅已超40%。 盛宝指出："本轮涨势的速度表明近几周乃至数月的价格回调均属浅层调整，每次下跌都会迎来新的买 盘兴趣，这种模式符合宏观基本面支撑的特征，而非单纯的投机性泡沫。" 与此同时白银涨势更为凌厉，在光伏产业与电气化进程的结构性需求推动下突破44美元/盎司，年内涨 幅超过50%。盛宝称白银"兼具货币属性与工业属性的双重身份正持续创造优势"。 黄金期货周三从前一交易日的历史高点回落。投资者正等待本周即将公布的美国初请失业金人数和美联 储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，以寻找货币政策路径的新线索。美元指数当日上 涨0.6%，令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家更为昂贵。 纽约商品交易所9月交割的黄金期货主力合约结算价下跌1.3%至3732.10美元/盎司，创8月11以来最大单 日美元与百分比跌幅；9月白银期货收跌0.9%至43.777美元/盎司，两者结算价仍并列历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF holdings have increased at the fastest pace in three years, reaching a total of 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [1] - In the first and second quarters of this year, net inflows into gold ETFs were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, significantly surpassing the same periods last year, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The leading gold ETF in terms of inflow this year is the SPDR Gold Shares in the U.S., with a demand increase of 122.1 tons and a total holding of approximately 994.4 tons [1] Group 2 - The Huazhong Yifu Gold ETF from China also saw significant inflows, with a demand increase of 28.2 tons and a total holding of about 74.7 tons [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that after potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may face technical corrections and profit-taking pressures, with key trading ranges identified between $3,750 and $3,850 [1] - Long-term trends indicate that central banks globally are continuing to increase their gold holdings, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, which are expected to support strong gold prices [1] Group 3 - Funi Futures believes that gold prices will remain strong and volatile, driven by both the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and ongoing risk events that sustain safe-haven demand [3] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have opened up further possibilities for interest rate cuts, contributing to the prevailing strong sentiment towards gold [3] - The combination of increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and persistent geopolitical conflicts is likely to keep safe-haven demand for gold elevated [3]

Group 1 - Silver prices have shown a continuous upward trend since early June 2025, with London silver rising from $32.9/oz to $44.46/oz, an increase of over 35%, and Shanghai silver increasing from ¥8220/kg to ¥10482/kg, a rise of 27.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points in September, with a cautious yet optimistic tone in their statements, indicating a neutral to slightly hawkish stance [1] - The Fed's internal divisions suggest that while there may be one more rate cut this year, the overall outlook remains uncertain, impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is significant, which could positively influence silver prices in the medium to long term [2] - Despite a weak job market, inflation has not shown significant rebound, allowing for continued policy easing, with President Trump advocating for further rate cuts [2] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence suggests a gradual approach to rate cuts, with expectations of 50 basis points total this year and potential further cuts in 2026 [2] Group 3 - There remains a strong demand for safe-haven assets and allocation needs, driven by ongoing global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Silver is increasingly viewed as a valuable asset for portfolio optimization and risk hedging, especially as gold prices rise [3] - The technical outlook for silver remains strong, with prices breaking above $40/oz, attracting trend-following investors [3] Group 4 - An analysis of the silver market indicates no mid-term bearish factors, suggesting a continued strong performance in the future [4] - The ongoing restructuring of global trade, monetary, and economic orders contributes to market uncertainty, maintaining a tight supply-demand relationship for precious metals [4] - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips rather than short selling [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by $0.05 at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [3]

格隆汇9月24日｜美联储持续降息预期叠加避险需求，推动金价不断创历史新高，COMEX黄金一度突 破3800美元/盎司。 金ETF(159834)是商品型ETF，密切跟踪上海黄金交易所黄金现货实盘合约价格，支持T+0日内交易，场 外联接基金（A：018391，c：018392) 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威 尔仍强调未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 在美联储降息、各国央行增加黄金储备，以及持续的地缘政治紧张推动避险需求的背景下，黄金已成为 今年表现最强劲的大宗商品之一，高盛等主要投行均预计价格将进一步上涨。 金ETF(159834)年内涨幅超37%，成为表现最好的商品型ETF。 金价上涨中，资金持续净流入，金ETF(159834)年内资金净流入额2.09亿元。 来源：格隆汇APP 申银万国期货报告称，国财政赤字、债务持续膨胀，以中国为代表的央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期 驱动仍然明确。 ...

摘要现货黄金周二（9月23日）日K收涨。现货黄金周二再度创下纪录新高至3790.97美元/盎司，最终收 于3763.93美元，涨幅达0.46%。一方面，美联储降息预期的持续发酵为金市注入强劲动力；另一方面， 地缘政治紧张局势的升级进一步激发了投资者的避险需求。 现货黄金周二（9月23日）日K收涨。现货黄金周二再度创下纪录新高至3790.97美元/盎司，最终收于 3763.93美元，涨幅达0.46%。一方面，美联储降息预期的持续发酵为金市注入强劲动力；另一方面，地 缘政治紧张局势的升级进一步激发了投资者的避险需求。 【要闻速递】 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在3746.1的位置后行情先回落，日线最低给到了3736.5的位置后行情强势震荡拉 升，日线最高触及到了3791.4的历史新高位置后行情获利了结调整，日线最终收线在了3764.6的位置 后，日线以一根上影线很长的类倒锤头形态收线。 而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情在日线上有一定的调整压力，今日2782空保守2785空止损2789，目标 看2760和2750，跌破看2740和2732。 当不确定性成为当下时代的主旋律时，投资者出于本能，纷纷探寻能够抵御风险的资产"避风港 ...