专题：黄金白银再迎大跌 "过山车"行情究竟驶向何方？ 文章来源：金十数据 由于中东等地缘局势有所降温，加之美国经济数据展现韧性削弱了避险需求，现货金银周四亚盘大幅跳 水。 现货白银跌破80美元/盎司后猛挫，向下触及74美元/盎司，日内一度跌16.05%；纽约期银向下触及74美 元/盎司，日内一度跌12.43%。现货黄金回落至4800美元/盎司下方，日内跌170美元，跌幅一度达 3.46%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 剧烈波动之下，泰国期货交易所（TFEX）宣布暂停白银在线期货的临时交易。有分析师警告投资者， 黄金和白银短期内可能会面临更大的抛售压力。 FOREX.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示："对我来说，近期黄金预测远非看涨。"他说，鉴于市场 波动较大，投资者现在寻找底部还为时过早。他补充说，他认为过去两天的买盘势头是逆趋势反弹。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 Razaqzada表示，除了黄金面临一些技术阻力外，市场还存在一些投资者需要关注的根本性变化。他解 释说，美元疲软看起来有点过度，美元短期内存在上涨风险。 他表示 ...

2月4日，ATFX：周二的黄金在经历剧烈震荡后开启了反弹，今早继续跟进涨势至5000美元上方，对应 金价此前从历史高位暴跌，逢低买盘纷纷抢购贵金属。周二早盘交易中，金价一度上涨2.1%，昨日的 涨幅超过6%。截至周二收盘，黄金价格较1月29日创下的历史高点下跌约12%，但今年以来仍上涨近 15%，白银价格昨日也一度反弹多达10%后部分回撤。 据彭博社数据，中国基金和西方散户投资者此前已大量持有贵金属头寸，而投资者涌入杠杆型交易所交 易产品和买入看涨期权的浪潮进一步推高了价格。上周五亚洲交易时段的突然暴跌一直持续到本周初。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 ▲ATFX图 上周五，黄金经历了自2013年以来最大的单日跌幅，而白银则创下了有史以来最大的单日跌幅。直接催 化剂是特朗普有意提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。沃什被视为最鹰派的候选人，这一消息导致 美元大幅走强，并引发了此前押注美元走弱的投资者普遍获利了结。随着仓位拥挤和波动加剧，交易所 和经纪商开始提高保证金要求——这是一个市场过度扩张的警告信号。 周五黄金和白银的抛售潮之后，周一随着投资者平仓，金银价格进一步走弱，从周二开始迎来反弹。机 构指出，贵金属的强 ...

在近期全球黄金市场剧烈波动的背景下，管理着约30亿美元资产的富达国际(Fidelity International)基金经理乔治.埃夫斯塔索普洛斯(George Efstathopoulos)， 在这种贵金属遭遇四十年来最大跌幅的几天前，大幅减持了黄金持仓。如今，他正打算再度买入。 尽管由于对货币贬值、美联储独立性以及地缘政治紧张局势的担忧引发避险需求，推动金价升至历史新高，但这位基金经理仍选择抛售，使其成功规避了由 于市场极度超买而引发的剧烈调整。 周三，黄金现货价格一度攀升2.8%至每盎司5080美元上方，此前一个交易日跳涨超过6%。该金属于1月29日触及每盎司5595.47美元的历史新高。由于在历 史性价格暴跌之后出现了逢低买入者，这种贵金属已连续两天反弹。 "若黄金市场再度出现5%至7%的回调，我将大举买入，"埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯周二接受采访时表示，"当前市场已挤出大量泡沫，黄金中期结构性上涨趋势依 然稳固。 埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯在富达国际协助管理规模约30亿美元的收益与增长策略组合。他指出，此前推动金价创历史新高的核心因素仍未消退。"通胀持续呈现 顽固态势，"他分析道，并补充称美元走弱是另一关键驱动因素 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, rising over 6% on February 3, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008, with current trading around $5065 per ounce [1] - The market's volatility was influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, leading to a reassessment of Fed policies, particularly regarding interest rates and balance sheet management [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown, although brief, highlighted political instability and increased uncertainty in economic data, which has driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6] Market Dynamics - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, the highest since August 2022, which typically supports a stronger dollar; however, the dollar index fell by 0.12% to 97.42 [5] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.568% and the 10-year yield at 4.268%, reflecting investor sentiment regarding potential changes in Fed policy, which may lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, have heightened market anxiety, further boosting gold's appeal as a hedge against uncertainty [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown signs of recovery after a sharp decline, with a focus on testing the $5000 level, indicating potential resistance and support levels around $5100 and $4820 respectively [9] - Short-term trading strategies suggest potential long positions near $4820 with targets at $4920 and $5020, while short positions may be considered below $5100 with targets at $5000 and $4900 [9]

摘要周三亚洲早盘，现货黄金延续反弹，09:20一度涨逾2%至5053.10美元/盎司，逐步收复上周剧烈抛 售失地，市场聚焦美国经济数据及避险需求变化。 地缘局势成关键支撑：美军在阿拉伯海击落"侵犯性接近"航母"亚伯拉罕.林肯号"的伊朗无人机，叠加 特朗普被传考虑对伊动武，中东紧张升温。美伊外交亦添变数——伊朗要求将土耳其会谈改至阿曼且仅 限核问题双边对话，不确定性推升避险情绪。 不过，美联储主席提名抑制上行空间：鹰派倾向的凯文.沃什被提名，市场下调降息预期(CME显示6月 降息概率降至66%)。短期金价或持续受地缘风险与货币政策预期交织影响，波动难平。 周三亚洲早盘，现货黄金延续反弹，09:20一度涨逾2%至5053.10美元/盎司，逐步收复上周剧烈抛售失 地，市场聚焦美国经济数据及避险需求变化。 ...

货币政策分化是美瑞短期波动的核心。美联储官员近期释放鹰派信号，强调通胀粘性，2026年大概率维 持高利率、暂缓降息，曾为美元提供支撑，但美瑞反弹动能不足。 2月4日亚市盘中，美元兑瑞士法郎窄幅震荡，截至发稿交投于0.7758，日内微涨0.12%，波动区间 0.7746-0.7765。2026年初以来，美瑞持续弱势震荡，核心受瑞郎避险属性、美联储政策预期及美瑞利差 主导，市场观望情绪浓厚。 瑞士凭借政治中立、经常账户盈余、低外债等优势，是全球避险资金核心配置地，长期压制美瑞走势。 当前全球地缘局势仍存不确定性，区域冲突、经济复苏不均等问题未缓解，避险资金持续流入瑞郎，为 其提供稳固支撑。 资金流向显示，近期全球避险ETF持仓攀升，瑞郎相关资产持仓占比环比提升，避险需求未降温。业内 认为，若全球风险偏好未持续回暖，瑞郎避险溢价将长期存在，美瑞上行空间受限。 短线支撑位0.7735(近期震荡下沿)，守住则维持窄幅震荡，跌破将下探0.7680；阻力位0.7825(20日均线 处)，突破有望扭转弱势，冲击0.7900关口。 瑞士央行退出负利率后收紧节奏偏缓，1月CPI同比约1%，远低于欧美，为稳健政策提供空间。尽管市 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].

金价在经历两个交易日的严重抛售后收复失地，纽约期金上涨6.5%，至每盎司4,955.90美元。此前的抛 售行情是因美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席——市场认为这一人选比其他竞争者 更偏紧缩——以及美元反弹所引发。苏克敦金融的分析师称："此前金价已远超通常与地缘政治或宏观 不确定性相关的纯粹避险需求所对应的水平。""因此，此次回调似乎与其说是不确定性消退，不如说是 过度仓位被清除。"与此同时，白银期货上涨13%，至每盎司87.07美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

【要闻速递】 彼得斯进一步指出，尽管发达市场已较高配置黄金，但新兴市场央行如波兰、巴西等仍有较大增持空 间。目前，无论机构还是散户，黄金在其资产组合中的平均占比仅略高于3%，远低于理想水平。她认 为，随着避险需求上升，黄金配置比例有望逐步提升至5%-10%，从而为金价提供长期支撑。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从小时级别来看，当前沪金行情仍处于下跌趋势后的技术性修复阶段。此前价格自1087一线高位回落， 形成了清晰的高低点同步下移结构，表明空头趋势完整。近期在1020–1030区域出现超跌反弹，但反弹 幅度有限，目前沪金价格运行于1060–1080区间，整体仍受到短中期均线的压制，趋势性多头尚未成 立。布林带在经历下跌后带口收敛，沪金价格围绕中轨震荡，并未出现贴上轨运行的强势特征。MACD 指标虽有修复迹象，但仍位于零轴下方，更多体现为空头动能的衰减，而非多头主导力量增强。上方压 力位集中在1078–1085区域，进一步阻力则看向1100整数关口;下方支撑首先关注1050–1040区间，而强 支撑则位于1020一带。 尽管近期贵金属市场经历了大幅波动，但多位分析师仍对未来数月的前景保持乐观态度。沙阿认为，此 次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has led to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet, influencing U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields have slightly increased across most maturities due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid a sell-off in precious metals [1] - The market is betting on the possibility of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year following Waller's nomination [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - Mohit Kumar, Chief Economist at Jefferies International, notes that Waller's hawkish stance and criticism of the Fed's balance sheet expansion may not logically align with Trump's preference [1] - Guy Stear, Head of Developed Markets Strategy at Amundi, indicates that the market expects lower short-term rates while the Fed manages its balance sheet, which could lead to a steeper yield curve [1] Group 3: Potential Implications - There is speculation that if long-term rates begin to rise during the steepening of the yield curve, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to expand its balance sheet [1]