Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months, aligning with market expectations [1] - HSBC anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in December and March, potentially lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75% by the end of next year [1] - There is an increasing risk of multiple rate cuts if labor market data shows further weakness [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on diversified asset allocation across asset classes, industries, and regions to enhance portfolio resilience in a changing environment [3] - The opportunity cost of holding cash assets may rise as the Fed's actions lower cash rates and bond yields, prompting a focus on high-quality bonds [4] - Preference for UK government bonds and investment-grade bonds in euros and pounds to hedge against downside risks, while maintaining a neutral view on US Treasuries [4] Group 3: Regional Market Outlook - The strategy maintains a diversified regional approach, favoring US, Asian, and UAE markets, with a positive outlook for Asian markets excluding China [5] - Singapore's defensive advantages and attractive dividends have made it stand out in Asia, while the UAE is seen as a market with structural growth potential [6] - The US market benefits from AI and economic growth, with second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations due to favorable conditions [6] Group 4: Sector Opportunities - The rapid application and commercialization of AI globally are enhancing productivity and creating new revenue streams, benefiting sectors like software, cloud services, and infrastructure [7] - The industrial sector is becoming a strategic focus due to ongoing trends in re-industrialization and the demand for digital infrastructure [7] - The financial sector is also showing growth potential, with banks being less affected by tariffs, making them an attractive investment opportunity [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of lithium and rare earth metals amid the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the performance of rare metal ETFs, particularly the 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) [1][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - The technology sector, particularly communication and electronics, has seen significant gains, with ETFs like the communication ETF (159695) and the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) both exceeding 50% year-to-date [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has also performed well, with an annual increase of 51.05% [4]. - The rare earth ETF 嘉实 (516150) and the rare metal ETF (562800) have recorded year-to-date increases of 64.2% and 51.9%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is expected to enhance liquidity and stimulate demand in the downstream sectors [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is addressing structural supply-side issues, particularly in industries like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [8]. Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have been on the rise, with futures prices increasing over 20% since July [8]. - The lithium sector's listed companies reported a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit, totaling 37.26 billion yuan in the first half of the year [10]. - Demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.386 million tons of LCE by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [11]. Group 4: Rare Earth Market Insights - China holds over one-third of the global rare earth reserves and has a significant share of the global production and processing capacity [15]. - The rare earth prices have surged due to supply chain concerns and increased inventory accumulation by foreign manufacturers [15]. - Companies like 北方稀土 have reported substantial revenue growth, with a 45.2% increase in revenue and a 19-fold increase in net profit year-on-year [15]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) strategically allocates 40% of its weight to small metals, including rare earths, and 20% to energy metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt [22]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in fund size, reaching 2.73 billion yuan, with a 119.7% increase in fund shares this year [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Zijin Mining achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.29 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.41%, with Q2 alone contributing 13.125 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.1% [1] - The company's copper and gold business has seen both volume and price increases, serving as a key driver for performance growth [1] - The report anticipates that Zijin Mining will continue to ramp up production in H2 2025, particularly in gold output, which is expected to sustain performance growth [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the U.S. economic downturn have been raised due to declining employment data, leading to a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range announced by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 [1] - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit metals such as gold and copper, potentially leading to price increases [1] - The report has adjusted the pricing and sales volume forecasts for gold and copper, as well as increased the expense ratio, resulting in a target price of 31.79 yuan based on a 17X PE valuation for comparable companies, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

近期，占尽市场高光的不只科技成长。随着A股板块轮动，以化工行业为代表的周期股也在持续发力。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年9月17日，在申万一级31个行业中，基础化工以近一年52.37%的涨幅排名 13，今年以来以24.83%的涨幅排名11，超越同期沪深300指数15.66%的涨幅。 那么，这个在资本市场上此前几乎处于"小透明"的小众板块，究竟为何能够强势崛起？ 内外合力驱动，恰逢其时 9月18日凌晨，美联储如期宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%。随着降息信号的 释放，市场普遍预期2025年9月进入降息周期，同时国内也有释放利率调降空间的预期。 化工作为资本密集型重资产行业，企业在产能扩张、技术升级和环保改造等环节需要投入大量资金。降 息周期中，企业融资成本下降，有利于改善现金流，降低财务负担，可释放更多资源用于再投资和创新 研发，为行业长期发展注入动力。 同时，降息周期通常会强化大宗商品的金融属性，化工行业作为顺周期板块，有望受益于流动性宽松带 来的估值提升。Wind数据显示，截至2025年9月17日，中证细分化工产业主题指数的市净率约为2.28 倍，位于近10年来37.38 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 降息周期开启，美国内部政策、地缘变化都将为黄金提供支撑。尽管黄金有卖现实 | | 黄金 ★★ | 长期持有 | 交易，但是中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄 | | | | 金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 无论是美联储与白宫有分歧、对国内释放政策期待，宏观政策处于观察期。白银需 | | | 强势走高 | 求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。但是白银弹性大，黄金等品种 | | ★★ | | 波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等待企稳后做新的入场打算 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪修正，铜止跌企稳，反弹回 8 万关口，建议多单可止盈兑现，国庆 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 假期临近，长假避险情绪或发酵，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | 锌 | | 锌国内库存累库，需求疲软，短期震荡偏弱，跌破下方关口支撑，中长期看锌供增 | | ★ | 承压 | 需减，仍是板块空头配置。 | | 铅 | | 国内原生铅与再生铅企业检修增多，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]

消息面上，近日，8月美国非农数据公布。华福证券认为，美联储如期降息25个基点，符合预期，声明 中首次承认"上半年经济增长放缓、就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升、通胀持续高企"，对平衡通胀及就 业风险的措辞表现更加鸽派。贵金属在降息和避险情绪驱动下表现强势。长江证券表示，降息周期初期 金价延续震荡上行格局不变。需要注意学习效应下，市场在降息后或将注重再通胀风险，将触发银金比 显著修复。 中信建投指出，美国8月季调后非农就业人口、2025年全年非农就业下调均低于预期，8月失业率创2021 年10月以来新高，首次申请失业金人数超预期、9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数低于预期，显示美国就 业现状疲软，经济有衰退可能。同时，美国8月PPI大幅低于预期，CPI和核心CPI符合预期，通胀情况 使得美联储9月降息，市场预期2025年底前美联储还将降息2次。在这种情况下，黄金的金融属性使其在 降息周期前期和中期更具吸引力。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股多数上涨，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)涨4.74%，报17.24港元；招金矿业 (01818)涨4.5%，报29.28港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨4%，报0.52港元；山东黄金( ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on shipping, e-commerce, logistics, aviation, chemical, and non-ferrous metal industries Core Insights and Arguments Shipping Industry - The BDI index typically rises significantly during historical interest rate cut cycles, with current dry bulk freight rates at a low point. Recommendations include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Haitong Development [1][3] - Recent surge in cruise freight rates from over 30,000 to 96,000 RMB, driven by supply-demand reversal due to OPEC's production adjustments and reduced VLOC deliveries. Recommended companies include China Merchants Energy Shipping, which has dual advantages in cruise and dry bulk shipping [1][7] E-commerce and Logistics - Interest rate cuts are expected to benefit emerging market infrastructure and consumption, leading to increased capital inflow. Jitu Express is highlighted for its growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America [1][4][5] - The express delivery industry has seen price increases, with significant price hikes in August and September, covering 90% of national parcel volume. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express are recommended [1][9][10] Aviation Sector - The depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the RMB are favorable for the aviation sector, leading to significant exchange gains. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [1][6] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a narrowing decline in PPI. Key sub-sectors to watch include olefins (Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical), polyester, organic silicon (Xin'an Chemical, Sanyou Chemical, Dongyue Silicon), and agricultural chemicals (Yara International, Oriental Tower) [1][11][12][13] - The overall chemical industry is expected to improve due to liquidity easing and policy catalysts, with a current profit margin of 4.1%, historically low [1][13] Non-Ferrous Metals - The market remains bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector, with expectations for copper and gold to lead price increases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Jiangxi Copper H shares, and Shandong Gold H shares [2][15] Coal Industry - The coal sector has performed strongly, with prices rising nearly 4% due to futures increases and robust demand. Key companies to watch include Liugang Huaneng, Huayang Co., and China Shenhua [16][17] - The average daily sales of coal companies reached 7.22 million tons, with a healthy inventory level of 25.54 million tons, indicating a stable supply-demand situation [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for further price increases in the express delivery sector as the Double Eleven shopping festival approaches, with optimistic performance expectations for listed companies [1][10] - The chemical sector's price adjustments and the impact of oil price fluctuations on various chemical products, highlighting the need to monitor policy changes [1][18]

首席 点 评 ： 中美 关系稳定发展 国家主席同美国总统通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系 稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院总理主持召开国务院常务会议，研究关于在政府采购中实施本国产品标 准及相关政策，强调要对各类经营主体一视同仁、平等对待，切实保障公平竞争。上海优化调整房产税 政策，对于持居住证的人才，以及居住证满 3 年的居民家庭，首套房免税，人均 60 平方米以内的二套 房免税。海外日本央行决定维持基准利率在 0.5% 不变，连续第五次按兵不动。受美联储降息预期强 化，市场风险偏好提升，加上企业盈利数据向好等因素推动，美股收创历史新高，美债利率上行，贵金 属上涨，原油价格下跌 。 重点品种： 黄金、原油、股指 黄金： 美联储利率决议后金银回落，周五晚间再度走强。美国周初请失业金人数回落至 23.1 万人，创 近四年来最大降幅，预期 24 万人。 9 月美联储风险管理式降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任 命的美联储理事米兰支持降息 50 个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨 慎。本周公布的美国 8 月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长 0.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International gold prices reached a new historical high, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains, with a weekly closing price of $3,684.59 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of $40.25 or 1.1% [1]. - The price opened at $3,644.34 per ounce, recorded a weekly low of $3,626.47, and peaked at $3,707.00 mid-week before closing strong [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Expectations of two additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have bolstered gold prices, despite some profit-taking and a less dovish stance from Fed Chair Powell [3][5]. - The U.S. government's risk of shutdown and the impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum products have also provided support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold will continue to benefit from a loose monetary policy environment, with projections indicating three rate cuts this year and one next year [5]. - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to factors such as global monetary easing, weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, and ongoing geopolitical risks [5][7].