#报告 TS Lombard：美联储将开启降息周期，调整股市、债市、以及能源、贵金属、工业金属等大宗商品的投资组合观点；市场情绪对中国期待转向新的财政刺激和消费措施出台。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not solely determine market winners, but will heavily depend on the economic backdrop and the shape of the yield curve [1] - The current market has largely priced in expectations of a "soft landing" or a mild recovery, but historical patterns show that significant rate cuts typically occur during periods of economic weakness or recession [1] - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and improving economic data, sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and information technology are expected to perform well, while utilities are likely to underperform [1] Group 2 - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and deteriorating economic data, traditional defensive sectors like utilities, real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples are expected to perform better, while sectors like information technology and energy may struggle [2] - The traditional view suggests that the federal funds rate must reach a stimulative level for the market to shift from defensive to cyclical sectors [2] - Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement five consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each, accompanied by slow but positive economic growth, influencing investment strategies significantly [2]

2025年09月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：突破上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 13 | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪金2510 | 昨日收盘价 834.22 | 日涨幅 0.41% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 834.00 | 夜盘涨幅 0.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2510 | 830.34 3680.70 | 0.51% 0.20% | 830.50 - | 0.12% | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metal sector, particularly focusing on gold, silver, copper, tungsten, rare earths, and steel industries [1][3][5][6][7][8][10][12][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold and Silver Market - **Gold Performance**: 中金黄金 (China National Gold) reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, with a quarterly profit of 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, showing over 60-70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's profitability in the gold mining sector has significantly improved, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: Silver prices have surged due to its proposed inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and tariff concerns, leading to increased demand in the U.S. market. 兴业银锡 (Xingye Silver Tin) is expected to become the largest silver and tin producer in China, with silver production projected to rise from 300 tons this year to over 900 tons by 2028 [1][4]. Copper and Tin Supply Issues - **Copper Supply Constraints**: The copper market is facing challenges due to an accident at Freeport's Indonesian mine and production cuts at Japanese smelters, leading to a projected negative growth in copper supply this year. Recommended companies include 金诚信 (Jinchengxin) and 洛阳钼业 (Luoyang Molybdenum), which are expected to benefit from increased copper production and rising prices of molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - **Tin Market**: The tin supply has also been disrupted, with actual increases falling short of expectations. The overall supply growth for tin is minimal, indicating potential upward price elasticity in the future [5]. Tungsten and Rare Earths - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply, leading to price increases. 厦门钨业 (Xiamen Tungsten) is highlighted as a leading company with a continuous increase in tungsten concentrate supply [6]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths and magnetic materials is recovering, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like 北方稀土 (Northern Rare Earth) and 包钢氧化钕 (Baogang Neodymium Oxide) are noted for their strong price increase potential [1][6]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Market Performance**: The steel sector is benefiting from anti-competitive policies and improved fundamentals, with Q1 and Q2 earnings showing positive trends. Major companies like 华菱钢铁 (Hualing Steel), 首钢股份 (Shougang), and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) are highlighted for their low price-to-book ratios, indicating high value [2][7][8][10][11]. - **Future Price Trends**: Steel prices are expected to rebound as supply recovers and demand improves, particularly in the construction sector. The anticipated decrease in raw material costs in Q4 could further enhance profitability for steel companies [9][10]. Cobalt Market Developments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: Cobalt prices have risen significantly due to resource concentration and uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo's policies. Companies like 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt) and 腾远钴业 (Tengyuan Cobalt) are positioned to benefit from these trends [14][19]. - **Cobalt Supply Constraints**: The production of cobalt salts has reached a five-year low, indicating a tight supply situation. The strategic importance of cobalt is underscored by the U.S. initiating a cobalt reserve plan [15][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metal sector is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to bolster demand for precious metals and industrial metals alike [1][3][12]. - The focus on strategic resources and their valuation is likely to have long-term implications for the global supply-demand dynamics in the metal industry [18].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月18日降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。 中粮期货总监李颖指出，降息前夕，商品市场震荡分化，预期部分计价后，资金短期更偏好避险，市场等待新主 线。周内贵金属在金价创新高的带动下表现亮眼；新能源板块则受情绪扰动，走势反复，跌幅居前。整体市场相 对平静，正静待降息"靴子"落地。 全球瞩目的货币政策走向，将如何影响国内商品期货走势？ 9月15日下午3点，中粮期货特别推出专题直播：《美联储决议前夕——降息周期下的大宗商品行情》，带你快速 掌握宏观大事件与期货行情的联动逻辑。扫码即可预约，不容错过！ 现在报名，立即解锁交易新技能 报名参赛即可获赠100万元模拟本金，"零成本试错、高收获成长"，大赛设置周赛+月赛双评比机制，多重奖励等 你来拿！ 市场不会等待任何人。在这个A股高位震荡的关键时刻，学会掌握衍生品工具将成为你交易生涯的重要转折点。 现在报名即可先享受"新客专享礼"，还可获得独家"研报洞察礼"，解读节后市场走势。 打开每日经济新闻APP，依次点击私人订制—期货大赛，即可报名参赛，开启你的新交易旅程吧！报名入口请见 下图 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year next week, with a continued easing expected through the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that while the upcoming rate cut cycle may be straightforward this year, complexities may arise in 2026 due to factors such as a shift to loose fiscal policy, dovish tendencies of the new Fed chair, and productivity gains driven by AI [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is currently showing signs of softening, with a composite indicator reflecting unemployment rates, job vacancies, turnover rates, and survey data indicating a potential decline after a brief stabilization in late 2024/early 2025 [2] - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that inflation in labor-intensive sectors will gradually decline due to a weak labor market suppressing wage growth, even as core PCE may temporarily rise to 3.2% due to tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - As policy rates approach 3%, the Fed's decision-making will become more complex, with multiple intersecting factors at play unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market or signs of recession [3] - The financial conditions index in the U.S. has eased by 75 basis points since early June, with the stock market being the largest contributor [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will gradually re-accelerate to potential growth levels by 2026, supported by reduced tariff drag and a shift to more expansionary fiscal policy, with AI technology playing a crucial role in determining growth levels [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as the upcoming meeting approaches, with a focus on the performance of the 10-year Treasury yield as a key indicator of monetary policy easing and inflation expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley strategist Phil Camporeale indicates that the current labor market is in a "stagnation" state, which supports the case for lower federal funds rates to provide more "breathing space" for the job market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly increased to 4.058%, which is crucial as it influences mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs; a rise in this yield could counteract the stimulative effects of lower short-term rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's September consumer confidence preliminary survey shows a decline in consumer confidence, while long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.9%, still below April's 4.4% [2] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - Pimco's Chief Investment Officer Mohit Mittal suggests that despite inflation being above the Fed's 2% target, the weakening labor market makes a rate cut a prudent move [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Projections - CME FedWatch tool shows traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by year-end [3] - Mittal forecasts that U.S. inflation will decline to about 3% by the end of 2025 and further to 2.5% by the end of 2026, indicating confidence in the Fed's ability to manage inflation [3] - Camporeale predicts a 1% real GDP growth in 2025 and approximately 2% in 2026, suggesting that the Fed may continue to cut rates in a stable economic environment [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock market performance was mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.44% to reach a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index fell slightly by 0.05% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.59% [4] - All three major indices recorded weekly gains, with the S&P 500 Index just shy of its historical high set on Thursday [4]

Group 1 - The market is reacting to a significant increase in initial jobless claims, leading to a drop in yields despite CPI being close to expectations [2][4] - There is a focus on inflation data, with two-year and ten-year yields reaching higher highs, indicating a potential stagflation scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points instead of 50, with market participants reassessing the aggressiveness of the easing cycle if inflation remains persistent [4][5] Group 2 - The reversal in yields suggests a double bottom formation, with a rejection of the 4% yield level, which is the lowest close of the year [4][5] - High-yield junk bonds are attracting investors as rate cuts are anticipated, with high yield ETFs closing at their highest level in approximately three and a half years [5]

"降息潮"来势汹汹。 在美联储9月议息会议前夕，多国央行出手。北京时间9月12日早间消息，秘鲁央行宣布，降息25个基 点；土耳其央行当地时间11日宣布，降息250个基点，将基准利率从43%下调至40.5%，超出市场预期。 与此同时，美国最新发布的就业与通胀数据也为美联储开启降息周期扫清了障碍。花旗分析认为，美国 8月CPI报告及其细节为美联储启动降息提供了更多依据，预计美联储将开启新一轮降息周期，在未来 五次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上累计降息125个基点。 刚刚宣布：降息 北京时间9月12日早间消息，秘鲁央行宣布，降息25个基点，将基准利率从4.50%下调至4.25%。这与彭 博社调查的15位经济学家中8人的预测一致，另7人预计秘鲁央行将连续第四次维持利率不变。 降息250个基点 在秘鲁央行出手前，土耳其央行于当地时间9月11日发布公告称，货币政策委员会决定将基准利率从 43%下调至40.5%，降息幅度达250个基点，降幅超过市场预期的200个基点。 土耳其央行在声明中指出，尽管第二季度国内生产总值增速高于预期，但最终国内需求依然疲弱。最新 数据显示，当前需求环境虽有助于推动通胀回落，但食品价格上涨 ...