Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The rotation between old and new consumption sectors continues, with leading brands in liquor and dairy products rebounding. The performance of mass-market products in Q2 shows divergence, with new consumption-related stocks experiencing rapid growth despite previous adjustments in performance expectations. Traditional channel reforms have impacted some stocks, leading to ongoing adjustments in performance [1][3][33] - The liquor sector is expected to have limited downside potential for leading companies, with high ROE, dividends, and cautious profit assumptions indicating a valuation floor. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][12] - New consumption trends are anticipated to continue, with potential for recovery in the second half of the year. Focus on low-priced or undervalued stocks with future catalysts, including Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [1][3][33] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with a focus on potential policy catalysts and rebound opportunities. Leading brands with strong market positions are prioritized for investment. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][12] - Recent performance shows a positive trend, with Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Jiu Gui Jiu leading in gains, while Jinzhidao and Huangtai Jiuye faced declines [5][39] Mass-Market Products - The new consumption paradigm is reshaping the food and beverage investment landscape. Despite a recent pullback, the long-term trend remains positive, with clear opportunities for continued investment. Focus on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [3][33] - The mass-market sector has seen significant fluctuations, with stocks like Huangshi Group and Guoquan showing strong gains, while stocks like Ganyuan and Gu Ming faced notable declines [39][42] Performance Metrics - From July 14 to July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, with non-dairy beverages and liquor sectors showing gains of 2.16% and 1.30%, respectively. Conversely, frozen foods and snacks experienced declines of 2.26% and 1.10% [39][40] - The valuation levels for the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the liquor sector showing the highest valuation increase this week [43]

Economic Performance - Sichuan Province's GDP grew by 5.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The service sector's value added increased by 6.0%, contributing 62.3% to the overall economic growth [1] Consumer Trends - Chengdu's Dongjiao Memory Park has seen a significant increase in visitor numbers, with over 800 million visitors in the first half of 2025, following a trend of rapid growth [1] - During the May Day holiday, the park received over 600,000 visitors, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [1] New Consumption Models - The park has introduced over 300 businesses in music, fashion, and other sectors, contributing to a vibrant consumer environment [3] - The opening of the 3rd Warehouse has attracted a diverse range of niche brands, enhancing the park's appeal [5][8] Cultural Integration - Dongjiao Memory Park combines festival economies with public art, creating a unique cultural experience that attracts visitors [9] - The park's public music initiative has hosted 106 performances, expanding the cultural offerings available to the public [11] Real Estate and Commercial Development - The park is part of a broader trend in Chengdu's real estate market, with innovative commercial spaces that integrate various entertainment and leisure activities [13] - The local government emphasizes the development of distinctive commercial landmarks to enhance urban consumption [13]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant developments in the global expansion of companies, particularly focusing on TikTok's negotiations in Canada, Blackstone's withdrawal from the TikTok US acquisition, and the rapid localization efforts of Temu in the UK [3][5][9][11]. Group 1: TikTok Developments - TikTok is urgently seeking negotiations with the Canadian government to avoid the shutdown of its local operations, which were ordered due to national security concerns [5]. - Blackstone has reportedly exited the consortium aimed at acquiring TikTok's US operations, adding uncertainty to the ongoing negotiations [9]. Group 2: Temu's Expansion - Temu plans to increase the proportion of local orders in the UK to 50% by the end of 2025, currently boasting 22 million users in the region [11]. - The platform has seen a 68% year-over-year increase in global monthly active users, reaching 417 million, with Latin America showing a remarkable 122% growth [11][12]. Group 3: SHEIN and Manus - SHEIN's India app has surpassed 2 million downloads within six months of its relaunch, with over 20,000 products available on the platform [14]. - Manus has disclosed its technical experiences while transitioning to overseas markets but did not address the reasons for its exit from China [16][17]. Group 4: Company Challenges - The lawnmower robot company Supoman has filed for bankruptcy, attributed to technological stagnation and declining market share [19]. - Inditex plans to reintroduce its budget brand Lefties in France to compete with low-cost rivals like SHEIN [25]. Group 5: Investment and Financing - Several Chinese venture capital firms are restarting USD fundraising, targeting over $2 billion, focusing on AI and new consumer sectors [32][34]. - Substack has completed a $100 million Series C funding round, increasing its valuation by nearly 70% since 2021 [34][35]. Group 6: Market Entries and Regulations - Couche-Tard has abandoned its $47 billion acquisition of Seven & i Holdings due to negotiation breakdowns [27]. - Thailand has classified 19 e-commerce platforms, including Shopee and Lazada, as "high-risk," subjecting them to mandatory regulations [31].

Group 1 - The return of "AI players" has led to a strong performance in the AI computing sector, with several actively managed equity products seeing significant net value increases, surpassing related ETF products. The light communication and PCB sectors have experienced rapid growth due to the AI boom, and Chinese companies are expected to benefit from the global AI development dividends [2][3] - High-performing funds have capitalized on emerging trends, with many focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and artificial intelligence sectors. The emergence of niche products such as short drama-themed funds and controllable nuclear fusion funds indicates a diversification in investment strategies [2][3] - In the second quarter, many high-performing funds increased their equity asset allocations, with technology and pharmaceuticals becoming core investment directions. This shift reflects a strategic response to structural opportunities in the market [3] Group 2 - Foreign institutions have collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, with Morgan Stanley increasing its prediction from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [3][5] - Citigroup has upgraded the ratings for the Chinese and South Korean stock markets to "overweight," projecting the Hang Seng Index to reach 25,000 points by the end of this year and 26,000 points by mid-next year, while the CSI 300 Index is expected to hit 4,200 points by year-end and 4,350 points by mid-next year [4][5] Group 3 - NVIDIA has confirmed the resumption of H20 chip sales in China, with CEO Jensen Huang stating that the U.S. government has assured the granting of licenses, and NVIDIA aims to initiate deliveries promptly [6] - Recent global stock market performance has shown mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and Shenzhen Component Index in China both rising over 2%, while the U.S. markets also saw gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices [7] Group 4 - The bond market has shown varied performance, with yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year Chinese government bonds all declining, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly [9][10] - Recent data indicates that fixed-income products dominate the bank wealth management market, with fixed-income plus products accounting for 48.34% of new offerings and 61.23% of total assets, reflecting a preference for stable returns and low-risk assets [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market maintained a sideways trend in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation, while private equity securities investment funds in China saw an increase in total scale [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by only 2.76% [2]. - The US stock market exhibited a V-shaped recovery, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increasing by over 5% [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market performed relatively strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising nearly 20% [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Fund Scale - As of June 2025, the total scale of private equity securities investment funds in China reached 5.56 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 350 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The number of private equity fund managers decreased to 7,761, down by 239 from the end of 2024, while the number of funds decreased to 83,356, down by 4,477 [2]. Group 3: Performance of Private Equity Firms - In the first half of 2025, 328 private equity firms achieved a management scale increase of at least one tier compared to the end of 2024 [3][4]. - Sixteen firms entered or re-entered the 100 billion yuan private equity club, with quantitative firms accounting for nine and subjective firms for six [4]. - Notable firms such as Fusheng Asset and Mengxi Investment reported average returns exceeding ***% in the first half of the year [4][8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Locations - By core strategy, 203 firms focused on stock strategies, 48 on multi-asset strategies, 33 on futures and derivatives, and 15 on bond strategies [4]. - Geographically, Shanghai had the highest concentration of firms with 127, followed by Beijing with 50 and Shenzhen with 41 [4]. Group 5: Top Performing Private Equity Firms - The top five private equity firms by performance in the first half of 2025 were Tongben Investment, Luyuan Private Equity, and Chengyao Private Equity, among others [15][20]. - Fusheng Asset, a subjective stock strategy firm, achieved the highest average return in the first half of 2025 [8][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of public fund managers transitioning to private equity, highlighting the reasons behind this shift and the performance of these managers in their new roles [2][4]. Group 1: Manager Transition Trends - As of July 16, over 2,700 changes in fund managers have occurred this year, with 194 resignations and 307 new appointments [2]. - Notable fund managers such as Bao Wuke, Zhou Haidong, and Zhang Yufan have opted for complete resignations, with many moving to private equity [2]. - By June 2025, there are 863 private fund managers with public fund backgrounds, managing 320 products with an average return of 11.17% in the first half of the year [2]. Group 2: Private Fund Manager Performance - The majority of these transitioning managers are found in smaller private funds, with 555 managing funds between 0-500 million [2]. - High Yi Asset, Rui Jun Asset, and Qin Chen Asset are among the private equity firms with the most "public-to-private" fund managers [2]. - The top three performing "public-to-private" fund managers in the first half of the year are Lu Hang from Fu Sheng Asset, He Xiao from Xiang Cheng Capital, and Xu Shuang from Zi Ge Investment [5][8]. Group 3: Performance Rankings - In the first half of the year, 34 "public-to-private" fund managers had three or more products that met ranking criteria, with the top performers achieving significant returns [5][6]. - The article provides detailed rankings of these managers, including their backgrounds and performance metrics, emphasizing the successful transition from public to private sectors [9][12].

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 18 日 研究支持 王栗晴 A0230123110002 wanglq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 相关研究 《茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业绩分 化——食品饮料行业周报 20250707- 20250711》 2025/07/12 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 白酒压力显现 食品分化加剧 看好 —— 食品饮料 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Guangfa Hong Kong and Shanghai New Opportunities Stock (001764) reported a profit of 35.24 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 5.79% during the period [2]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 671 million yuan [14]. - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the period was 0.0595 yuan [2]. - The fund's unit net value as of July 17 was 1.133 yuan [2]. - The fund's performance over various time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 10.00%, ranking 79 out of 167 comparable funds [2]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 17.78%, ranking 36 out of 167 comparable funds [2]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 22.62%, ranking 68 out of 166 comparable funds [2]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -8.11%, ranking 82 out of 159 comparable funds [2]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.1456, ranking 72 out of 159 comparable funds [7]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 40.02%, ranking 68 out of 158 comparable funds [9]. - The highest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2022, at 30.1% [9]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a focus on the new consumption sector, which has gained recognition from global investors, and plans to continue seeking opportunities in companies with quality products in this area [2]. Portfolio Composition - The fund has a high concentration in its top holdings, with the top ten stocks consistently exceeding 60% concentration over the past two years [18]. - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings included Pop Mart, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Laopu Gold, Alibaba-W, Xinbao Co., Kelun Biotech-B, Blukoo, Mixue Group, and TCL Electronics [18]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 90.37%, compared to the industry average of 87.97% [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and strategy of the AI Fund Yinghua Yongxiang Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (180028) for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a profit of 4.67 million yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 5.47% [2][3] - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value is 1.375 yuan, with a one-year compounded unit net value growth rate of 25%, the highest among its peers [2][3] - The fund manager, Guo Sijie, focuses on consumer sectors and maintains a high position, increasing allocations in new consumption areas such as gold and jewelry, snacks, and electronic cigarettes [3] Group 2 - The fund's performance metrics indicate a three-month compounded unit net value growth rate of 5.04%, a six-month growth rate of 8.70%, and a three-year growth rate of -12.70%, ranking 489 out of 870 among comparable funds [3][10] - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past three years is 39.21%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 22.27% [10] - The fund's top ten holdings as of the end of Q2 2025 include companies such as Nanjing E-commerce, Inpai, and Haian Home [17]

Market Overview - On July 18, 2025, A-shares saw a slight increase across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.34. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,571.1 billion, an increase of 31.7 billion compared to the previous day [1]. Sector Performance - The rare metals sector led the gains, with the Rare Metals ETF (561800) increasing by 4.12%, followed by other ETFs in the rare metals and rare earth categories, all showing significant upward movement [2]. - Conversely, the gaming and photovoltaic sectors experienced the largest declines, with the Gaming ETF (159869) dropping by 1.47% and the Photovoltaic ETF (159618) decreasing by 0.87% [4][5]. News and Developments - A significant discovery was made by Chinese experts in the Tarim Basin, where the world's deepest sandstone-type industrial uranium mineralization was found at a depth of 1,820 meters, marking a milestone in uranium resource exploration [3]. - The Chinese government has intensified export controls on strategic minerals, which is expected to marginally improve compliance export channels and drive domestic prices upward [3]. - The small metals market is experiencing heightened activity, driven by limited reserves, high extraction difficulty, and increasing demand from sectors such as new energy and semiconductors, alongside geopolitical supply chain disruptions [3]. ETF Activity - The top-performing ETF by trading volume was the Silver Hua ETF (511880), with a transaction amount of 16.1 billion. Other notable ETFs included the Sci-Tech Bond ETF (159600) and the Hua Bao ETF (511990) [7]. - The highest turnover rate was recorded by the Benchmark National Debt ETF (511100) at 445.54%, indicating strong trading activity in this segment [9]. Upcoming ETF Launches - Four new ETFs are set to begin fundraising on July 21, 2025, including the General Aviation ETF (159255) and the Robotics ETF (159278), which will focus on emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics [10][11]. - The General Aviation ETF will cover the entire low-altitude economy chain, while the Robotics ETF will emphasize humanoid robots, reflecting a significant shift in industry focus [11][12].