一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期升温 6月美国就业数据疲软（增长低于预期且前两月数据下修），引发经济放缓担忧，市场对降息预期增强。据芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具，9月降息概率 达91%，预计至2026年10月累计降息130个基点；高盛预测9月起可能连续三次降息（每次25个基点，若就业恶化或降50个基点）。美元指数反弹乏力（周二 收于98.76），削弱其价值储藏功能，黄金作为替代避险资产吸引力上升。 黄金周二（8月5日）早盘小幅上涨3382附近受阻开始震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至3350/3349附近后企稳上涨，美盘强势上涨，最高上涨3390附近，尾盘小幅下 探3377后保持其上方震荡，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阳线。 特朗普计划更换美联储理事库格勒的临时接替人选，并考虑四名候选人接替主席鲍威尔（排除财政部长贝森特），市场预期新任官员可能倾向鸽派政策。 鸽派倾向或压低美元和美债收益率，长期利好金价；同时，特朗普干预经济数据（如更换劳工统计局局长）增加市场波动，进一步强化黄金避险需求。 4、今日关注 2、特朗普政府关税政策影响 正面效果：6月美国贸易逆差收窄16%至602亿美元（两年新低），对华逆差降至95亿美元 ...

这轮金饰涨价背后反映出两大结构性因素。一方面，全球避险资金涌入黄金资产。国际金价今年持续刷新纪录，单边突破每盎司 3000美元、年内涨幅超18%，推动中国现货及珠宝金价屡创新高。 另一方面，本地零售品牌库存管理趋紧，限量精品供不应求，一定程度上形成"高端、小众、收藏化"定价策略。在消费升级与文 化信仰双驱动下，高端金饰成为部分人群的资产配置选择。 近日，多家国内金店足金金饰价格已突破每克1014元，创下新高。顷刻之间价格从7月31日的991元一克上涨至今日，短短五天内 累计涨幅达23元。 周生生、老凤祥、周大福等品牌快速跟涨，成为黄金市场异动焦点。据福布斯中文网报道，主要原因包括COMEX现货金价飙涨、 国内市场避险需求升温，以及相关奢侈品品牌限量效应同步放大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese futures market has shown significant growth in trading volume and value, reflecting a shift towards high-quality development in various sectors, particularly in response to government policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 1.059 billion contracts, a year-on-year increase of 48.89% [1] - The trading value for July reached 71.31 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.03% [1] - From January to July, the cumulative trading volume was 5.135 billion contracts, with a cumulative trading value of 411.04 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year increases of 23.11% and 23.09% respectively [1] Group 2: Commodity Trends - Traditional commodities such as gold, crude oil, rebar, soda ash, and glass have seen active trading, indicating ongoing market interest in safe-haven assets [1] - There is a noticeable increase in trading volume for new energy materials like polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon, suggesting a transition in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries towards high-quality development driven by technological advancement and efficiency [1] Group 3: Financial Instruments - The trading volume for CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year government bond futures ranked high, indicating a growing preference among investors for small and mid-cap growth stocks [1] - The data reflects heightened market attention to long-term interest rate trends [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The increased activity in the futures market signifies a deepening structural transformation of the real economy and highlights the capital market's enhanced ability to support national strategies and macroeconomic stability [1]

北京时间周二22:00，美国7月ISM非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)将出炉。权威媒体调查显示，美国7月 ISM非制造业PMI预计为51.5，此前6月份为50.8。 分析师指出，美国7月ISM服务业PMI可能会对美元和黄金产生影响，具体取决于其是倾向于支持降 息，还是倾向于支持长时间的暂停降息。 美国7月非农就业增长不及预期，且前两月数据合计下修25.8万个岗位，导致美元指数徘徊一周低位， 10年期美债收益率跌至一个月新低。CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对美联储9月降息的押注已飙升至 90%。OANDA分析师指出："黄金短期技术面明显改善，但3450美元关口仍是关键阻力位，需要更强催 化剂才能突破。" 【技术分析】 值得注意的是，特朗普再次威胁对印度加征关税，地缘政治风险为国际金价提供额外支撑。市场人士认 为，在低利率预期与政治不确定性交织的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的优势正在凸显。 摘要周二（8月5日）欧洲时段，国际黄金维持在两周高位附近震荡，最新黄金价格交投于3370美元一 线，市场分析认为，美国就业数据疲软引发的降息预期升温，与美印贸易争端加剧共同构筑了黄金 的"双重支撑"。本交易日聚焦美国 ...

特朗普还将印度所在的金砖国家集团（BRICS）描述为对美国"敌意"的组织，进一步加深了地缘政治的 分歧。印度外交部发言人强调，印度将继续采取一切必要措施维护国家利益和经济安全。俄乌冲突爆发 以来，印度因能源需求与俄罗斯保持密切关系，这不仅引发了与西方的外交摩擦，也为全球贸易格局带 来了不确定性。在地缘政治风险上升的背景下，投资者倾向于将资金配置到黄金等安全资产，以对冲潜 在的市场波动。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为786元/克至845元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于766元/克 至815元/克。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普近期宣布对数十个国家实施新一轮关税，并明确表示这些关税将维持不变，尤其是对印 度商品征收25%的关税。这一决定与印度从俄罗斯大量采购石油有关，特朗普批评印度通过转售俄油获 取巨额利润，忽视乌克兰局势的道德考量。印度方面则回应称，其能源进口是为了维护国内经济稳定， 并指责美国的针对行为"毫无正当性"。这种针锋相对的贸易争端加剧了全球市场的紧张情绪，推高了黄 金作为避险资产的需求。 今日周二（8月5日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前 ...

Core Insights - Global gold demand surged by 45% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching a record high of $132 billion, with total demand volume at 1,249 tons, a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - Gold ETF inflows amounted to 170 tons, with significant contributions from the Asian region [1] - The domestic precious metals trading app downloads experienced explosive growth, with a 30% increase in the first half of 2025, and Jinsheng Precious Metals leading the market with an 18% share [1] Market Trends - The market heat is closely linked to technological innovation, with mobile internet technology enhancing trading convenience for investors [3] - Jinsheng Precious Metals reported that mobile trading volume accounts for 68% of its transactions, and its smart alert system can help reduce risk exposure by 35% during extreme market conditions [3] Company Performance - Jinsheng Precious Metals has built a differentiated barrier through "compliance genes + technological empowerment," maintaining its status as the "most trusted platform in Asia-Pacific" for six consecutive years, with a user recommendation rate of 98% [4] - The company integrates with MT4 and MT5 trading systems, achieving order execution speeds as low as 0.01 seconds, even during extreme market fluctuations [4] Competitive Advantages - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, with spreads for London gold/silver below the industry average and no hidden fees [5] - The company has established a "bank-grade" risk control system, ensuring client funds are stored in licensed banks in Hong Kong and employing SSL encryption and multi-layer firewall systems [5] Industry Outlook - The precious metals market is characterized by a dual drive of "official accumulation + public enthusiasm," with over 90% of central banks planning to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] - Investors are advised to focus on compliance qualifications and technological capabilities when selecting trading platforms, with Jinsheng Precious Metals' AA membership indicating the highest level of trading authority and regulatory standards [6] Investment Strategy - In an increasingly uncertain economic environment, gold's value as a safe-haven asset is becoming more pronounced, making platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals a rational choice for investors seeking stable returns [7]

来源：金都财神A 2，2小时，黄金早间开盘从3368.7美元，跌至3344.7美元再次上涨，当前运行在3354美元附近。KDJ指标金叉，附图拐头运行在超买区域，MACD 指标红色多头动能缩量，短线走势相对偏空。由于日K线站上了中轨，黄金日内的操作倾向回落做多单为主，下方关注3340美元支撑。上方关注 早间高点3370美元附近压力。 【8.4黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3367-3370美元附近空，止损3375美元，止盈看3345美元 2，黄金稳健回落3334-3337美元附近多，止损3330美元，止盈看3355美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，从周线走势看，黄金本周探底3267美元大幅上涨，收锤子阳线，TRIX趋势指标死叉，MACD指标快慢线在高位死叉，绿色空头动能增量，周 线走势还是空头，黄金近1-2周有望在跌至上周低点3268美元。上周五是非农，亚盘黄金跌至3282美元附近触底反弹，美盘非农数据公布后，黄金 大幅上涨，尾盘涨至3363美元附近，日线收大阳线，且站上中轨，走势偏多，KDJ指标J线拐头严重超卖后拐头向上，形成金叉，MACD指标绿色 空头动能缩量，日线 ...

其他报告也暗藏警告信号。二季度GDP反弹幅度超预期，但剔除对外贸易影响、聚焦国内最终需求的指 标显示增长放缓。 摘要在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀 升了74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货 黄金于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。 在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀升了 74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货黄金 于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。就本交易日而言，市场参与者需重点关注 美国6月工厂订单月率数据，同时持续密切留意国际贸易局势以及地缘政治局势的相关动态消息。 【要闻速递】 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔上周日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《面向全国》节目中表示，上周 对众多国家加征的关税可能会维持现状，而不会作为持续谈判的一部分被削减。 上周美元走弱，因数据显示7月非农就业人数仅增加7.3万人，6月数据下修为增加 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on August 4, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.92% to close at 24,733.45 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [1][2] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 234.7 billion, with a rare net outflow of southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.092 billion. Year-to-date, as of August 1, southbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of HKD 879.049 billion into Hong Kong stocks [1][2] Semiconductor Sector - In the semiconductor sector, InnoCare Technologies saw a significant increase, closing at HKD 75.15 per share with a rise of 30.47% and a trading volume of HKD 4.733 billion. The company announced a partnership with NVIDIA to promote the large-scale implementation of an 800 VDC power architecture in AI data centers [6] - Other semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 8.69% and SMIC increasing by 2.90% [7] Gold Sector - The gold sector experienced a notable surge, with Lao Pu Gold rising by 6.23% to close at HKD 733.00 per share, marking a year-to-date increase of 179.85%. The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been driven by international uncertainties [14] - Lao Pu Gold projected a revenue of RMB 12 billion to 12.5 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, and a net profit of RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion, up 279% to 288% [16] - Other gold stocks also saw positive performance, with Shandong Gold rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Gold increasing by 8.89% [16] Real Estate Market - In the real estate sector, the number of property sale agreements in Hong Kong for July 2025 was reported at 7,212, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month but an increase of 37.1% year-on-year. The total value of these agreements was HKD 54.6 billion, down 17.8% month-on-month but up 28% year-on-year [17] - Residential property agreements accounted for 5,766 of the total, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 54.9%. The total value of residential agreements was HKD 46.4 billion, down 24.1% month-on-month but up 29.9% year-on-year [17] Company-Specific Movements - Zhongke Biological experienced a dramatic increase of 47.76%, closing at HKD 0.99 per share. There are expectations that it may be included in certain indices, which could drive passive fund allocation [8][10] - Conversely, China New City saw a significant decline of 27.86%, partially reversing earlier gains, although it still recorded a year-to-date increase of 26.25% [11][13]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rise on August 4, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.92% to close at 24,733.45 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 1.55% [2][3] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 234.7 billion, with a rare net outflow of southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.092 billion [2] Company Highlights - Lao Pu Gold saw a significant rebound, closing at HKD 733.00 per share, up 6.23%, with a year-to-date increase of 179.85% [10][12] - The company announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue between RMB 12 billion to 12.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 241% to 255%, and a net profit of RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion, a growth of 279% to 288% [12] - Bank of America raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Lao Pu Gold for the next two years by 11% and 6%, projecting revenues of RMB 13.8 billion for the second half of the year, a 178% increase year-on-year [12] - In the semiconductor sector, InnoTek surged by 30.47% to HKD 75.15 per share after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA [6] - Zhongke Biological experienced a dramatic increase of 47.76%, closing at HKD 0.99 per share, with speculation of potential index inclusion driving investor interest [8] Sector Performance - The gold sector performed well overall, with Shandong Gold rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Gold increasing by 8.89% [12] - The real estate market in Hong Kong showed mixed signals, with July's property transaction contracts totaling 7,212, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% [13]